Detecting green shoots of recovery: The importance of long-term individual-based monitoring of marine turtles

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Wiley via the DOI in this recordPopulation monitoring is an essential part of evaluating the effectiveness of management interventions for conservation. Coastal breeding aggregations of marine vertebrate species that come ashore to pup or nest provide an opportunistic window of observation into otherwise widely dispersed populations. Green turtle (Chelonia mydas) nesting on the north and west coasts of northern Cyprus has been monitored consistently and exhaustively since 1993, with an intensive saturation tagging programme running at one key site for the same duration. This historically depleted nesting population is showing signs of recovery, possibly in response to nest protection approaching two decades, with increasing nest numbers and rising levels of recruitment. Strong correlation between year-to-year magnitude of nesting and the proportion of new breeders in the nesting cohort implies that recruitment of new individuals to the breeding population is an important driver of this recovery trend. Recent changes in fishing activities may be impacting the local juvenile neritic stage, however, which may hinder this potential recovery. Individuals returning to breed after two years laid fewer clutches than those returning after three or four years, demonstrating a trade-off between remigration interval and breeding output. Average clutch frequencies have remained stable around a median of three clutches a year per female despite the demographic shift towards new nesters, which typically lay fewer clutches in their first season. We show that where local fecundity has been adequately assessed, the use of average clutch frequencies can be a reliable method for deriving nester abundance from nest counts. Index sites where individual-based monitoring is possible will be important in monitoring long-term climate driven changes in reproductive rates.European Social Fun

Association of comorbidity and health service usage among patients with dementia in the UK: a population-based study

$\textbf{BACKGROUND}$: The majority of people with dementia have other long-term diseases, the presence of which may affect the progression and management of dementia. This study aimed to identify subgroups with higher healthcare needs, by analysing how primary care consultations, number of prescriptions and hospital admissions by people with dementia varies with having additional long-term diseases (comorbidity). $\textbf{METHODS}$: A retrospective cohort study based on health data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) was conducted. Incident cases of dementia diagnosed in the year starting 1/3/2008 were selected and followed for up to 5 years. The number of comorbidities was obtained from a set of 34 chronic health conditions. Service usage (primary care consultations, hospitalisations and prescriptions) and time-to-death were determined during follow-up. Multilevel negative binomial regression and Cox regression, adjusted for age and gender, were used to model differences in service usage and death between differing numbers of comorbidities. $\textbf{RESULTS}$: Data from 4999 people (14 866 person-years of follow-up) were analysed. Overall, 91.7% of people had 1 or more additional comorbidities. Compared with those with 2 or 3 comorbidities, people with ≥6 comorbidities had higher rates of primary care consultations (rate ratio (RR) 1.31, 95% CI 1.25 to 1.36), prescriptions (RR 1.68, 95% CI 1.57 to 1.81), and hospitalisation (RR 1.62, 95% CI 1.44 to 1.83), and higher risk of death (HR 1.56, 95% CI 1.37 to 1.78). $\textbf{DISCUSSION}$: In the UK, people with dementia with higher numbers of comorbidities die earlier and have considerably higher health service usage in terms of primary care consultations, hospital admissions and prescribing. This study provides strong evidence that comorbidity is a key factor that should be considered when allocating resources and planning care for people with dementia

A Universal Model of Global Civil Unrest

Civil unrest is a powerful form of collective human dynamics, which has led to major transitions of societies in modern history. The study of collective human dynamics, including collective aggression, has been the focus of much discussion in the context of modeling and identification of universal patterns of behavior. In contrast, the possibility that civil unrest activities, across countries and over long time periods, are governed by universal mechanisms has not been explored. Here, we analyze records of civil unrest of 170 countries during the period 1919-2008. We demonstrate that the distributions of the number of unrest events per year are robustly reproduced by a nonlinear, spatially extended dynamical model, which reflects the spread of civil disorder between geographic regions connected through social and communication networks. The results also expose the similarity between global social instability and the dynamics of natural hazards and epidemics.Comment: 8 pages, 3 figure

A single fungal strain was the unexpected cause of a mass aspergillosis outbreak in the world's largest and only flightless parrot.

Kākāpō are a critically endangered species of parrots restricted to a few islands off the coast of New Zealand. Kākāpō are very closely monitored, especially during nesting seasons. In 2019, during a highly successful nesting season, an outbreak of aspergillosis affected 21 individuals and led to the deaths of 9, leaving a population of only 211 kākāpō. In monitoring this outbreak, cultures of aspergillus were grown, and genome sequenced. These sequences demonstrate that, very unusually for an aspergillus outbreak, a single strain of aspergillus caused the outbreak. This strain was found on two islands, but only one had an outbreak of aspergillosis; indicating that the strain was necessary, but not sufficient, to cause disease. Our analysis provides an understanding of the 2019 outbreak and provides potential ways to manage such events in the future

Apheresis as novel treatment for refractory angina with raised lipoprotein(a): a randomised controlled trial

Aims To determine the clinical impact of lipoprotein apheresis in patients with refractory angina and raised lipoprotein(a) > 500 mg/L on the primary end point of quantitative myocardial perfusion, as well as secondary end points including atheroma burden, exercise capacity, symptoms, and quality of life. Methods We conducted a single-blinded randomized controlled trial in 20 patients with refractory angina and raised lipoprotein(a) > 500 mg/L, with 3 months of blinded weekly lipoprotein apheresis or sham, followed by crossover. The primary endpoint was change in quantitative myocardial perfusion reserve (MPR) assessed by cardiovascular magnetic resonance. Secondary endpoints included measures of atheroma burden, exercise capacity, symptoms and quality of life. Results The primary endpoint, namely MPR, increased following apheresis (0.47; 95% CI 0.31–0.63) compared with sham (−0.16; 95% CI − 0.33–0.02) yielding a net treatment increase of 0.63 (95% CI 0.37–0.89; P < 0.001 between groups). Improvements with apheresis compared with sham also occurred in atherosclerotic burden as assessed by total carotid wall volume (P < 0.001), exercise capacity by the 6 min walk test (P = 0.001), 4 of 5 domains of the Seattle angina questionnaire (all P < 0.02) and quality of life physical component summary by the short form 36 survey (P = 0.001). Conclusion Lipoprotein apheresis may represent an effective novel treatment for patients with refractory angina and raised lipoprotein(a) improving myocardial perfusion, atheroma burden, exercise capacity and symptoms

A Genetic Association Study of Serum Acute-Phase C-Reactive Protein Levels in Rheumatoid Arthritis: Implications for Clinical Interpretation

A genetic association study by Timothy Vyse and colleagues suggests that there is a significant association between CRP variants and acute-phase serum CRP concentrations in patients with rheumatoid arthritis, including those with chronic inflammation

Sequential Effects in Judgements of Attractiveness: The Influences of Face Race and Sex

In perceptual decision-making, a person’s response on a given trial is influenced by their response on the immediately preceding trial. This sequential effect was initially demonstrated in psychophysical tasks, but has now been found in more complex, real-world judgements. The similarity of the current and previous stimuli determines the nature of the effect, with more similar items producing assimilation in judgements, while less similarity can cause a contrast effect. Previous research found assimilation in ratings of facial attractiveness, and here, we investigated whether this effect is influenced by the social categories of the faces presented. Over three experiments, participants rated the attractiveness of own- (White) and other-race (Chinese) faces of both sexes that appeared successively. Through blocking trials by race (Experiment 1), sex (Experiment 2), or both dimensions (Experiment 3), we could examine how sequential judgements were altered by the salience of different social categories in face sequences. For sequences that varied in sex alone, own-race faces showed significantly less opposite-sex assimilation (male and female faces perceived as dissimilar), while other-race faces showed equal assimilation for opposite- and same-sex sequences (male and female faces were not differentiated). For sequences that varied in race alone, categorisation by race resulted in no opposite-race assimilation for either sex of face (White and Chinese faces perceived as dissimilar). For sequences that varied in both race and sex, same-category assimilation was significantly greater than opposite-category. Our results suggest that the race of a face represents a superordinate category relative to sex. These findings demonstrate the importance of social categories when considering sequential judgements of faces, and also highlight a novel approach for investigating how multiple social dimensions interact during decision-making

Estimated cumulative radiation dose from PET/CT in children with malignancies: a 5-year retrospective review

The increasing use of serial PET/CT scans in the management of pediatric malignancies raises the important consideration of radiation exposure in children. To estimate the cumulative radiation dose from PET/CT studies to children with malignancy and to compare with the data in literature. Two hundred forty-eight clinical PET/CT studies performed on 78 patients (50 boys/28 girls, 1.3 to 18 years old from December 2002 to October 2007) were retrospectively reviewed under IRB approval. The whole-body effective dose (ED) estimates for each child were obtained by estimating the effective dose from each PET/CT exam performed using the ImPACT Patient Dosimetry Calculator for CT and OLINDA for PET. The average number of PET/CT studies was 3.2 per child (range: 1 to 14 studies). The average ED of an individual CT study was 20.3 mSv (range: 2.7 to 54.2), of PET study was 4.6 mSv (range: 0.4 to 7.7) and of PET/CT study was 24.8 mSv (range: 6.2 to 60.7). The average cumulative radiation dose per patient from CT studies was 64.4 mSv (range: 2.7 to 326), from PET studies was 14.5 mSv (range: 2.8 to 73) and from PET/CT studies was 78.9 mSv (range: 6.2 to 399). The radiation exposure from serial PET/CT studies performed in pediatric malignancies was considerable; however, lower doses can be used for both PET and CT studies. The ALARA principle must be applied without sacrificing diagnostic information

A measure of individual role in collective dynamics

Identifying key players in collective dynamics remains a challenge in several research fields, from the efficient dissemination of ideas to drug target discovery in biomedical problems. The difficulty lies at several levels: how to single out the role of individual elements in such intermingled systems, or which is the best way to quantify their importance. Centrality measures describe a node's importance by its position in a network. The key issue obviated is that the contribution of a node to the collective behavior is not uniquely determined by the structure of the system but it is a result of the interplay between dynamics and network structure. We show that dynamical influence measures explicitly how strongly a node's dynamical state affects collective behavior. For critical spreading, dynamical influence targets nodes according to their spreading capabilities. For diffusive processes it quantifies how efficiently real systems may be controlled by manipulating a single node.Comment: accepted for publication in Scientific Report