Skillful long-range prediction of European and North American winters

This is the final version. Available from AGU via the DOI in this recordUntil recently, long-range forecast systems showed only modest levels of skill in predicting surface winter climate around the Atlantic Basin and associated fluctuations in the North Atlantic Oscillation at seasonal lead times. Here we use a new forecast system to assess seasonal predictability of winter North Atlantic climate. We demonstrate that key aspects of European and North American winter climate and the surface North Atlantic Oscillation are highly predictable months ahead. We demonstrate high levels of prediction skill in retrospective forecasts of the surface North Atlantic Oscillation, winter storminess, near-surface temperature, and wind speed, all of which have high value for planning and adaptation to extreme winter conditions. Analysis of forecast ensembles suggests that while useful levels of seasonal forecast skill have now been achieved, key sources of predictability are still only partially represented and there is further untapped predictability. Key Points The winter NAO can be skilfully predicted months ahead The signal-to-noise ratio of the predictable signal is anomalously low Predictions of the risk of regional winter extremes are possibleThis work was supported by the Joint DECC/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme (GA01101), the UK Public Weather Service research program, and the European Union Framework 7 SPECS project. Leon Hermanson was funded as part of his Research Fellowship by Willis as part of Willis Research Network (WRN)

Students' attitudes towards the introduction of a Personal and Professional Development portfolio: potential barriers and facilitators

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

The effects of phenoxodiol on the cell cycle of prostate cancer cell lines

Background: Prostate cancer is associated with a poor survival rate. The ability of cancer cells to evade apoptosis and exhibit limitless replication potential allows for progression of cancer from a benign to a metastatic phenotype. The aim of this study was to investigate in vitro the effect of the isoflavone phenoxodiol on the expression of cell cycle genes. Methods: Three prostate cancer cell lines-LNCaP, DU145, and PC3 were cultured in vitro, and then treated with phenoxodiol (10 μM and 30 μM) for 24 and 48 h. The expression of cell cycle genes p21WAF1, c-Myc, Cyclin-D1, and Ki-67 was investigated by Real Time PCR. Results: Here we report that phenoxodiol induces cell cycle arrest in the G1/S phase of the cell cycle, with the resultant arrest due to the upregulation of p21WAF1 in all the cell lines in response to treatment, indicating that activation of p21WAF1 and subsequent cell arrest was occurring via a p53 independent manner, with induction of cytotoxicity independent of caspase activation. We found that c-Myc and Cyclin-D1 expression was not consistently altered across all cell lines but Ki-67 signalling expression was decreased in line with the cell cycle arrest. Conclusions: Phenoxodiol demonstrates an ability in prostate cancer cells to induce significant cytotoxicity in cells by interacting with p21WAF1 and inducing cell cycle arrest irrespective of p53 status or caspase pathway interactions. These data indicate that phenoxodiol would be effective as a potential future treatment modality for both hormone sensitive and hormone refractory prostate cancer

Indian summer monsoon onset forecast skill in the UK Met Office initialized coupled seasonal forecasting system (GloSea5-GC2)

Accurate and precise forecasting of the Indian monsoon is important for the socio-economic security of India, with improvements in agriculture and associated sectors from prediction of the monsoon onset. In this study we establish the skill of the UK Met Office coupled initialized global seasonal forecasting system, GloSea5-GC2, in forecasting Indian monsoon onset. We build on previous work that has demonstrated the good skill of GloSea5 at forecasting interannual variations of the seasonal mean Indian monsoon using measures of large-scale circulation and local precipitation. We analyze the summer hindcasts from a set of three springtime start-dates in late April/early May for the 20-year hindcast period (1992-2011). The hindcast set features at least fifteen ensemble members for each year and is analyzed using five different objective monsoon indices. These indices are designed to examine large and local-scale measures of the monsoon circulation, hydrological changes, tropospheric temperature gradient, or rainfall for single value (area-averaged) or grid-point measures of the Indian monsoon onset. There is significant correlation between onset dates in the model and those found in reanalysis. Indices based on large-scale dynamic and thermodynamic indices are better at estimating monsoon onset in the model rather than local-scale dynamical and hydrological indices. This can be attributed to the model's better representation of large-scale dynamics compared to local-scale features. GloSea5 may not be able to predict the exact date of monsoon onset over India, but this study shows that the model has a good ability at predicting category-wise monsoon onset, using early, normal or late tercile categories. Using a grid-point local rainfall onset index, we note that the forecast skill is highest over parts of central India, the Gangetic plains, and parts of coastal India - all zones of extensive agriculture in India. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forcing in the model improves the forecast skill of monsoon onset when using a large-scale circulation index, with late monsoon onset coinciding with El Niño conditions and early monsoon onset more common in La Niña years. The results of this study suggest that GloSea5's ensemble-mean forecast may be used for reliable Indian monsoon onset prediction a month in advance despite systematic model errors

Complete Genome Characterisation of a Novel 26th Bluetongue Virus Serotype from Kuwait

Bluetongue virus is the “type” species of the genus Orbivirus, family Reoviridae. Twenty four distinct bluetongue virus (BTV) serotypes have been recognized for decades, any of which is thought to be capable of causing “bluetongue” (BT), an insect-borne disease of ruminants. However, two further BTV serotypes, BTV-25 (Toggenburg orbivirus, from Switzerland) and BTV-26 (from Kuwait) have recently been identified in goats and sheep, respectively. The BTV genome is composed of ten segments of linear dsRNA, encoding 7 virus-structural proteins (VP1 to VP7) and four distinct non-structural (NS) proteins (NS1 to NS4). We report the entire BTV-26 genome sequence (isolate KUW2010/02) and comparisons to other orbiviruses. Highest identity levels were consistently detected with other BTV strains, identifying KUW2010/02 as BTV. The outer-core protein and major BTV serogroup-specific antigen “VP7” showed 98% aa sequence identity with BTV-25, indicating a common ancestry. However, higher level of variation in the nucleotide sequence of Seg-7 (81.2% identity) suggests strong conservation pressures on the protein of these two strains, and that they diverged a long time ago. Comparisons of Seg-2, encoding major outer-capsid component and cell-attachment protein “VP2” identified KUW2010/02 as 26th BTV, within a 12th Seg-2 nucleotype [nucleotype L]. Comparisons of Seg-6, encoding the smaller outer capsid protein VP5, also showed levels of nt/aa variation consistent with identification of KUW2010/02 as BTV-26 (within a 9th Seg-6 nucleotype - nucleotype I). Sequence data for Seg-2 of KUW2010/02 were used to design four sets of oligonucleotide primers for use in BTV-26, type-specific RT-PCR assays. Analyses of other more conserved genome segments placed KUW2010/02 and BTV-25/SWI2008/01 closer to each other than to other “eastern” or “western” BTV strains, but as representatives of two novel and distinct geographic groups (topotypes). Our analyses indicate that all of the BTV genome segments have evolved under strong purifying selection

Identification and Differentiation of the Twenty Six Bluetongue Virus Serotypes by RT–PCR Amplification of the Serotype-Specific Genome Segment 2

Bluetongue (BT) is an arthropod-borne viral disease, which primarily affects ruminants in tropical and temperate regions of the world. Twenty six bluetongue virus (BTV) serotypes have been recognised worldwide, including nine from Europe and fifteen in the United States. Identification of BTV serotype is important for vaccination programmes and for BTV epidemiology studies. Traditional typing methods (virus isolation and serum or virus neutralisation tests (SNT or VNT)) are slow (taking weeks, depend on availability of reference virus-strains or antisera) and can be inconclusive. Nucleotide sequence analyses and phylogenetic comparisons of genome segment 2 (Seg-2) encoding BTV outer-capsid protein VP2 (the primary determinant of virus serotype) were completed for reference strains of BTV-1 to 26, as well as multiple additional isolates from different geographic and temporal origins. The resulting Seg-2 database has been used to develop rapid (within 24 h) and reliable RT–PCR-based typing assays for each BTV type. Multiple primer-pairs (at least three designed for each serotype) were widely tested, providing an initial identification of serotype by amplification of a cDNA product of the expected size. Serotype was confirmed by sequencing of the cDNA amplicons and phylogenetic comparisons to previously characterised reference strains. The results from RT-PCR and sequencing were in perfect agreement with VNT for reference strains of all 26 BTV serotypes, as well as the field isolates tested. The serotype-specific primers showed no cross-amplification with reference strains of the remaining 25 serotypes, or multiple other isolates of the more closely related heterologous BTV types. The primers and RT–PCR assays developed in this study provide a rapid, sensitive and reliable method for the identification and differentiation of the twenty-six BTV serotypes, and will be updated periodically to maintain their relevance to current BTV distribution and epidemiology (http://www.reoviridae.org/dsRNA_virus_proteins/ReoID/rt-pcr-primers.htm)

Development and evaluation of real time RT-PCR assays for detection and typing of Bluetongue virus

Bluetongue virus is the type species of the genus Orbivirus, family Reoviridae. Bluetongue viruses (BTV) are transmitted between their vertebrate hosts primarily by biting midges (Culicoides spp.) in which they also replicate. Consequently BTV distribution is dependent on the activity, geographic distribution, and seasonal abundance of Culicoides spp. The virus can also be transmitted vertically in vertebrate hosts, and some strains/serotypes can be transmitted horizontally in the absence of insect vectors. The BTV genome is composed of ten linear segments of double-stranded (ds) RNA, numbered in order of decreasing size (Seg-1 to Seg-10). Genome segment 2 (Seg-2) encodes outer-capsid protein VP2, the most variable BTV protein and the primary target for neutralising antibodies. Consequently VP2 (and Seg-2) determine the identity of the twenty seven serotypes and two additional putative BTV serotypes that have been recognised so far. Current BTV vaccines are serotype specific and typing of outbreak strains is required in order to deploy appropriate vaccines. We report development and evaluation of multiple ‘TaqMan’ fluorescence-probe based quantitative real-time type-specific RT-PCR assays targeting Seg-2 of the 27+1 BTV types. The assays were evaluated using orbivirus isolates from the ‘Orbivirus Reference Collection’ (ORC) held at The Pirbright Institute. The assays are BTV-type specific and can be used for rapid, sensitive and reliable detection / identification (typing) of BTV RNA from samples of infected blood, tissues, homogenised Culicoides, or tissue culture supernatants. None of the assays amplified cDNAs from closely related but heterologous orbiviruses, or from uninfected host animals or cell cultures

Investigating the Host-Range of the Rust Fungus Puccinia psidii sensu lato across Tribes of the Family Myrtaceae Present in Australia

The exotic rust fungus Puccinia psidii sensu lato was first detected in Australia in April 2010. This study aimed to determine the host-range potential of this accession of the rust by testing its pathogenicity on plants of 122 taxa, representative of the 15 tribes of the subfamily Myrtoideae in the family Myrtaceae. Each taxon was tested in two separate trials (unless indicated otherwise) that comprised up to five replicates per taxon and six replicates of a positive control (Syzygium jambos). No visible symptoms were observed on the following four taxa in either trial: Eucalyptus grandis×camaldulensis, E. moluccana, Lophostemon confertus and Sannantha angusta. Only small chlorotic or necrotic flecks without any uredinia (rust fruiting bodies) were observed on inoculated leaves of seven other taxa (Acca sellowiana, Corymbia calophylla ‘Rosea’, Lophostemon suaveolens, Psidium cattleyanum, P. guajava ‘Hawaiian’ and ‘Indian’, Syzygium unipunctatum). Fully-developed uredinia were observed on all replicates across both trials of 28 taxa from 8 tribes belonging to the following 17 genera: Agonis, Austromyrtus, Beaufortia, Callistemon, Calothamnus, Chamelaucium, Darwinia, Eucalyptus, Gossia, Kunzea, Leptospermum, Melaleuca, Metrosideros, Syzygium, Thryptomene, Tristania, Verticordia. In contrast, the remaining 83 taxa inoculated, including the majority of Corymbia and Eucalyptus species, developed a broad range of symptoms, often across the full spectrum, from fully-developed uredinia to no visible symptoms. These results were encouraging as they indicate that some levels of genetic resistance to the rust possibly exist in these taxa. Overall, our results indicated no apparent association between the presence or absence of disease symptoms and the phylogenetic relatedness of taxa. It is most likely that the majority of the thousands of Myrtaceae species found in Australia have the potential to become infected to some degree by the rust, although this wide host range may not be fully realized in the field

Identifying causes of Western Pacific ITCZ drift in ECMWF System 4 hindcasts

The development of systematic biases in climate models used in operational seasonal forecasting adversely affects the quality of forecasts they produce. In this study, we examine the initial evolution of systematic biases in the ECMWF System 4 forecast model, and isolate aspects of the model simulations that lead to the development of these biases. We focus on the tendency of the simulated intertropical convergence zone in the western equatorial Pacific to drift northwards by between 0.5° and 3° of latitude depending on season. Comparing observations with both fully coupled atmosphere–ocean hindcasts and atmosphere-only hindcasts (driven by observed sea-surface temperatures), we show that the northward drift is caused by a cooling of the sea-surface temperature on the Equator. The cooling is associated with anomalous easterly wind stress and excessive evaporation during the first twenty days of hindcast, both of which occur whether air-sea interactions are permitted or not. The easterly wind bias develops immediately after initialisation throughout the lower troposphere; a westerly bias develops in the upper troposphere after about ten days of hindcast. At this point, the baroclinic structure of the wind bias suggests coupling with errors in convective heating, although the initial wind bias is barotropic in structure and appears to have an alternative origin