A note on Youden's J and its cost ratio

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The Youden index, the sum of sensitivity and specificity minus one, is an index used for setting optimal thresholds on medical tests.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>When using this index, one implicitly uses decision theory with a ratio of misclassification costs which is equal to one minus the prevalence proportion of the disease. It is doubtful whether this cost ratio truly represents the decision maker's preferences. Moreover, in populations with a different prevalence, a selected threshold is optimal with reference to a different cost ratio.</p> <p>Summary</p> <p>The Youden index is not a truly optimal decision rule for setting thresholds because its cost ratio varies with prevalence. Researchers should look into their cost ratio and employ it in a decision theoretic framework to obtain genuinely optimal thresholds.</p

Centre selection for clinical trials and the generalisability of results: a mixed methods study.

BACKGROUND: The rationale for centre selection in randomised controlled trials (RCTs) is often unclear but may have important implications for the generalisability of trial results. The aims of this study were to evaluate the factors which currently influence centre selection in RCTs and consider how generalisability considerations inform current and optimal practice. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Mixed methods approach consisting of a systematic review and meta-summary of centre selection criteria reported in RCT protocols funded by the UK National Institute of Health Research (NIHR) initiated between January 2005-January 2012; and an online survey on the topic of current and optimal centre selection, distributed to professionals in the 48 UK Clinical Trials Units and 10 NIHR Research Design Services. The survey design was informed by the systematic review and by two focus groups conducted with trialists at the Birmingham Centre for Clinical Trials. 129 trial protocols were included in the systematic review, with a total target sample size in excess of 317,000 participants. The meta-summary identified 53 unique centre selection criteria. 78 protocols (60%) provided at least one criterion for centre selection, but only 31 (24%) protocols explicitly acknowledged generalisability. This is consistent with the survey findings (n = 70), where less than a third of participants reported generalisability as a key driver of centre selection in current practice. This contrasts with trialists' views on optimal practice, where generalisability in terms of clinical practice, population characteristics and economic results were prime considerations for 60% (n = 42), 57% (n = 40) and 46% (n = 32) of respondents, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Centres are rarely enrolled in RCTs with an explicit view to external validity, although trialists acknowledge that incorporating generalisability in centre selection should ideally be more prominent. There is a need to operationalize 'generalisability' and incorporate it at the design stage of RCTs so that results are readily transferable to 'real world' practice

Clinical and cellular features in patients with primary autosomal recessive microcephaly and a novel CDK5RAP2 mutation

Background Primary autosomal recessive microcephaly (MCPH) is a rare neurodevelopmental disorder that results in severe microcephaly at birth with pronounced reduction in brain volume, particularly of the neocortex, simplified cortical gyration and intellectual disability. Homozygous mutations in the Cyclin-dependent kinase 5 regulatory subunit-associated protein 2 gene CDK5RAP2 are the cause of MCPH3. Despite considerable interest in MCPH as a model disorder for brain development, the underlying pathomechanism has not been definitively established and only four pedigrees with three CDK5RAP2 mutations have been reported. Specifically for MCPH3, no detailed radiological or histological descriptions exist. Methods/Results We sought to characterize the clinical and radiological features and pathological cellular processes that contribute to the human MCPH3 phenotype. Haplotype analysis using microsatellite markers around the MCPH1-7 and PNKP loci in an Italian family with two sons with primary microcephaly, revealed possible linkage to the MCPH3 locus. Sequencing of the coding exons and exon/intron splice junctions of the CDK5RAP2 gene identified homozygosity for the novel nonsense mutation, c.4441C > T (p.Arg1481*), in both affected sons. cMRI showed microcephaly, simplified gyral pattern and hypogenesis of the corpus callosum. The cellular phenotype was assessed in EBV-transformed lymphocyte cell lines established from the two affected sons and compared with healthy male controls. CDK5RAP2 protein levels were below detection level in immortalized lymphocytes from the patients. Moreover, mitotic spindle defects and disrupted γ-tubulin localization to the centrosome were apparent. Conclusion These results suggest that spindle defects and a disruption of centrosome integrity play an important role in the development of microcephaly in MCPH3

The epidemiology of injuries across the weight-training sports

Background: Weight-training sports, including weightlifting, powerlifting, bodybuilding, strongman, Highland Games, and CrossFit, are weight-training sports that have separate divisions for males and females of a variety of ages, competitive standards, and bodyweight classes. These sports may be considered dangerous because of the heavy loads commonly used in training and competition. Objectives: Our objective was to systematically review the injury epidemiology of these weight-training sports, and, where possible, gain some insight into whether this may be affected by age, sex, competitive standard, and bodyweight class. Methods: We performed an electronic search using PubMed, SPORTDiscus, CINAHL, and Embase for injury epidemiology studies involving competitive athletes in these weight-training sports. Eligible studies included peer-reviewed journal articles only, with no limit placed on date or language of publication. We assessed the risk of bias in all studies using an adaption of the musculoskeletal injury review method. Results: Only five of the 20 eligible studies had a risk of bias score ≥75 %, meaning the risk of bias in these five studies was considered low. While 14 of the studies had sample sizes >100 participants, only four studies utilized a prospective design. Bodybuilding had the lowest injury rates (0.12–0.7 injuries per lifter per year; 0.24–1 injury per 1000 h), with strongman (4.5–6.1 injuries per 1000 h) and Highland Games (7.5 injuries per 1000 h) reporting the highest rates. The shoulder, lower back, knee, elbow, and wrist/hand were generally the most commonly injured anatomical locations; strains, tendinitis, and sprains were the most common injury type. Very few significant differences in any of the injury outcomes were observed as a function of age, sex, competitive standard, or bodyweight class. Conclusion: While the majority of the research we reviewed utilized retrospective designs, the weight-training sports appear to have relatively low rates of injury compared with common team sports. Future weight-training sport injury epidemiology research needs to be improved, particularly in terms of the use of prospective designs, diagnosis of injury, and changes in risk exposure

The Importance of Socio-Economic Versus Environmental Risk Factors for Reported Dengue Cases in Java, Indonesia

Background: Dengue is a major mosquito-borne viral disease and an important public health problem. Identifying which factors are important determinants in the risk of dengue infection is critical in supporting and guiding preventive measures. In South-East Asia, half of all reported fatal infections are recorded in Indonesia, yet little is known about the epidemiology of dengue in this country. Methodology/Principal findings: Hospital-reported dengue cases in Banyumas regency, Central Java were examined to build Bayesian spatial and spatio-temporal models assessing the influence of climatic, demographic and socio-economic factors on the risk of dengue infection. A socio-economic factor linking employment type and economic status was the most influential on the risk of dengue infection in the Regency. Other factors such as access to healthcare facilities and night-time temperature were also found to be associated with higher risk of reported dengue infection but had limited explanatory power. Conclusions/Significance: Our data suggest that dengue infections are triggered by indoor transmission events linked to socio-economic factors (employment type, economic status). Preventive measures in this area should therefore target also specific environments such as schools and work areas to attempt and reduce dengue burden in this community. Although our analysis did not account for factors such as variations in immunity which need further investigation, this study can advise preventive measures in areas with similar patterns of reported dengue cases and environmen

Methods for specifying the target difference in a randomised controlled trial : the Difference ELicitation in TriAls (DELTA) systematic review

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Biochemical Effects of Carbohydrate Supplementation in a Simulated Competition of Short Terrestrial Duathlon

The purpose of the present study was to investigate the biochemical effects of carbohydrate supplementation in a simulated competition of short terrestrial duathlon. Ten duathletes participated in a simulated competition of short terrestrial duathlon 30 minutes after the ingestion of a 6% (30 g/500 ml) maltodextrin solution (MALT) or a placebo (PLA). This solution was also ingested every 15 minutes during the competition (12 g/200 ml); and immediately after the competition (18 g/300 ml). Samples of blood were collected at 3 time points: 1) at rest 1 hour before the beginning of the competition; 2) during the competition (approximately 1 hour and 45 minutes after the 1st collection); 3) immediately after the competition. Blood was analyzed for blood glucose, lactate, insulin and cortisol. Significant differences were observed in relation to blood glucose levels between MALT and PLA in the post-competition phase. There was also a significant difference in the lactate levels observed between MALT and PLA during the competition phase. Similarly, a significant difference in the cortisol concentrations during and after the competition phases (MALT and PLA) were observed. We conclude that maltodextrin supplementation appears to be beneficial during short terrestrial duathlon competition as evidenced by biochemical markers

Dissemination and implementation of an educational tool for veterans on complementary and alternative medicine: a case study

Background Predicting when and where pathogens will emerge is difficult, yet, as shown by the recent Ebola and Zika epidemics, effective and timely responses are key. It is therefore crucial to transition from reactive to proactive responses for these pathogens. To better identify priorities for outbreak mitigation and prevention, we developed a cohesive framework combining disparate methods and data sources, and assessed subnational pandemic potential for four viral haemorrhagic fevers in Africa, Crimean–Congo haemorrhagic fever, Ebola virus disease, Lassa fever, and Marburg virus disease. Methods In this multistage analysis, we quantified three stages underlying the potential of widespread viral haemorrhagic fever epidemics. Environmental suitability maps were used to define stage 1, index-case potential, which assesses populations at risk of infection due to spillover from zoonotic hosts or vectors, identifying where index cases could present. Stage 2, outbreak potential, iterates upon an existing framework, the Index for Risk Management, to measure potential for secondary spread in people within specific communities. For stage 3, epidemic potential, we combined local and international scale connectivity assessments with stage 2 to evaluate possible spread of local outbreaks nationally, regionally, and internationally. Findings We found epidemic potential to vary within Africa, with regions where viral haemorrhagic fever outbreaks have previously occurred (eg, western Africa) and areas currently considered non-endemic (eg, Cameroon and Ethiopia) both ranking highly. Tracking transitions between stages showed how an index case can escalate into a widespread epidemic in the absence of intervention (eg, Nigeria and Guinea). Our analysis showed Chad, Somalia, and South Sudan to be highly susceptible to any outbreak at subnational levels. Interpretation Our analysis provides a unified assessment of potential epidemic trajectories, with the aim of allowing national and international agencies to pre-emptively evaluate needs and target resources. Within each country, our framework identifies at-risk subnational locations in which to improve surveillance, diagnostic capabilities, and health systems in parallel with the design of policies for optimal responses at each stage. In conjunction with pandemic preparedness activities, assessments such as ours can identify regions where needs and provisions do not align, and thus should be targeted for future strengthening and support

The effects of a partitioned var gene repertoire of Plasmodium falciparum on antigenic diversity and the acquisition of clinical immunity

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The human malaria parasite <it>Plasmodium falciparum </it>exploits antigenic diversity and within-host antigenic variation to evade the host's immune system. Of particular importance are the highly polymorphic <it>var </it>genes that encode the family of cell surface antigens PfEMP1 (<it>Plasmodium falciparum </it>Erythrocyte Membrane Protein 1). It has recently been shown that in spite of their extreme diversity, however, these genes fall into distinct groups according to chromosomal location or sequence similarity, and that recombination may be confined within these groups.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>This study presents a mathematical analysis of how recombination hierarchies affect diversity, and, by using simple stochastic simulations, investigates how intra- and inter-genic diversity influence the rate at which individuals acquire clinical immunity.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The analysis demonstrates that the partitioning of the <it>var </it>gene repertoire has a limiting effect on the total diversity attainable through recombination and that the limiting effect is strongly influenced by the respective sizes of each of the partitions. Furthermore, by associating expression of one of the groups with severe malaria it is demonstrated how a small number of infections can be sufficient to protect against disease despite a seemingly limitless number of possible non-identical repertoires.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Recombination hierarchies within the <it>var </it>gene repertoire of <it>P. falciparum </it>have a severe effect on strain diversity and the process of acquiring immunity against clinical malaria. Future studies will show how the existence of these recombining groups can offer an evolutionary advantage in spite of their restriction on diversity.</p