Re-interpreting conventional interval estimates taking into account bias and extra-variation

BACKGROUND: The study design with the smallest bias for causal inference is a perfect randomized clinical trial. Since this design is often not feasible in epidemiologic studies, an important challenge is to model bias properly and take random and systematic variation properly into account. A value for a target parameter might be said to be "incompatible" with the data (under the model used) if the parameter's confidence interval excludes it. However, this "incompatibility" may be due to bias and/or extra-variation. DISCUSSION: We propose the following way of re-interpreting conventional results. Given a specified focal value for a target parameter (typically the null value, but possibly a non-null value like that representing a twofold risk), the difference between the focal value and the nearest boundary of the confidence interval for the parameter is calculated. This represents the maximum correction of the interval boundary, for bias and extra-variation, that would still leave the focal value outside the interval, so that the focal value remained "incompatible" with the data. We describe a short example application concerning a meta analysis of air versus pure oxygen resuscitation treatment in newborn infants. Some general guidelines are provided for how to assess the probability that the appropriate correction for a particular study would be greater than this maximum (e.g. using knowledge of the general effects of bias and extra-variation from published bias-adjusted results). SUMMARY: Although this approach does not yet provide a method, because the latter probability can not be objectively assessed, this paper aims to stimulate the re-interpretation of conventional confidence intervals, and more and better studies of the effects of different biases

Parental breeding age effects on descendants' longevity interact over 2 generations in matrilines and patrilines

Individuals within populations vary enormously in mortality risk and longevity, but the causes of this variation remain poorly understood. A potentially important and phylogenetically widespread source of such variation is maternal age at breeding, which typically has negative effects on offspring longevity. Here, we show that paternal age can affect offspring longevity as strongly as maternal age does and that breeding age effects can interact over 2 generations in both matrilines and patrilines. We manipulated maternal and paternal ages at breeding over 2 generations in the neriid fly Telostylinus angusticollis. To determine whether breeding age effects can be modulated by the environment, we also manipulated larval diet and male competitive environment in the first generation. We found separate and interactive effects of parental and grand-parental ages at breeding on descendants' mortality rate and life span in both matrilines and patrilines. These breeding age effects were not modulated by grand-parental larval diet quality or competitive environment. Our findings suggest that variation in maternal and paternal ages at breeding could contribute substantially to intrapopulation variation in mortality and longevity

The heritability of mating behaviour in a fly and its plasticity in response to the threat of sperm competition.

Phenotypic plasticity is a key mechanism by which animals can cope with rapidly changeable environments, but the evolutionary lability of such plasticity remains unclear. The socio-sexual environment can fluctuate very rapidly, affecting both the frequency of mating opportunities and the level of competition males may face. Males of many species show plastic behavioural responses to changes in social environment, in particular the presence of rival males. For example, Drosophila pseudoobscura males respond to rivals by extending mating duration and increasing ejaculate size. Whilst such responses are predicted to be adaptive, the extent to which the magnitude of response is heritable, and hence selectable, is unknown. We investigated this using isofemale lines of the fruit fly D. pseudoobscura, estimating heritability of mating duration in males exposed or not to a rival, and any genetic basis to the change in this trait between these environments (i.e. degree of plasticity). The two populations differed in population sex ratio, and the presence of a sex ratio distorting selfish chromosome. We find that mating duration is heritable, but no evidence of population differences. We find no significant heritability of plasticity in mating duration in one population, but borderline significant heritability of plasticity in the second. This difference between populations might be related to the presence of the sex ratio distorting selfish gene in the latter population, but this will require investigation in additional populations to draw any conclusions. We suggest that there is scope for selection to produce an evolutionary response in the plasticity of mating duration in response to rivals in D. pseudoobscura, at least in some populations

The role of complex cues in social and reproductive plasticity

Phenotypic plasticity can be a key determinant of fitness. The degree to which the expression of plasticity is adaptive relies upon the accuracy with which information about the state of the environment is integrated. This step might be particularly beneficial when environments, e.g. the social and sexual context, change rapidly. Fluctuating temporal dynamics could increase the difficulty of determining the appropriate level of expression of a plastic response. In this review, we suggest that new insights into plastic responses to the social and sexual environment (social and reproductive plasticity) may be gained by examining the role of complex cues (those comprising multiple, distinct sensory components). Such cues can enable individuals to more accurately monitor their environment in order to respond adaptively to it across the whole life course. We briefly review the hypotheses for the evolution of complex cues and then adapt these ideas to the context of social and sexual plasticity. We propose that the ability to perceive complex cues can facilitate plasticity, increase the associated fitness benefits and decrease the risk of costly ‘mismatches’ between phenotype and environment by (i) increasing the robustness of information gained from highly variable environments, (ii) fine-tuning responses by using multiple strands of information and (iii) reducing time lags in adaptive responses. We conclude by outlining areas for future research that will help to determine the interplay between complex cues and plasticity