Selecting Forecasting Methods

I examined six ways of selecting forecasting methods: Convenience, “what’s easy,” is inexpensive, but risky. Market popularity, “what others do,” sounds appealing but is unlikely to be of value because popularity and success may not be related and because it overlooks some methods. Structured judgment, “what experts advise,” which is to rate methods against prespecified criteria, is promising. Statistical criteria, “what should work,” are widely used and valuable, but risky if applied narrowly. Relative track records, “what has worked in this situation,” are expensive because they depend on conducting evaluation studies. Guidelines from prior research, “what works in this type of situation,” relies on published research and offers a low-cost, effective approach to selection. Using a systematic review of prior research, I developed a flow chart to guide forecasters in selecting among ten forecasting methods. Some key findings: Given enough data, quantitative methods are more accurate than judgmental methods. When large changes are expected, causal methods are more accurate than naive methods. Simple methods are preferable to complex methods; they are easier to understand, less expensive, and seldom less accurate. To select a judgmental method, determine whether there are large changes, frequent forecasts, conflicts among decision makers, and policy considerations. To select a quantitative method, consider the level of knowledge about relationships, the amount of change involved, the type of data, the need for policy analysis, and the extent of domain knowledge. When selection is difficult, combine forecasts from different methods

Standards and Practices for Forecasting

One hundred and thirty-nine principles are used to summarize knowledge about forecasting. They cover formulating a problem, obtaining information about it, selecting and applying methods, evaluating methods, and using forecasts. Each principle is described along with its purpose, the conditions under which it is relevant, and the strength and sources of evidence. A checklist of principles is provided to assist in auditing the forecasting process. An audit can help one to find ways to improve the forecasting process and to avoid legal liability for poor forecasting

Inferring the Transcriptional Landscape of Bovine Skeletal Muscle by Integrating Co-Expression Networks

Background: Despite modern technologies and novel computational approaches, decoding causal transcriptional regulation remains challenging. This is particularly true for less well studied organisms and when only gene expression data is available. In muscle a small number of well characterised transcription factors are proposed to regulate development. Therefore, muscle appears to be a tractable system for proposing new computational approaches. Methodology/Principal Findings: Here we report a simple algorithm that asks "which transcriptional regulator has the highest average absolute co-expression correlation to the genes in a co-expression module?" It correctly infers a number of known causal regulators of fundamental biological processes, including cell cycle activity (E2F1), glycolysis (HLF), mitochondrial transcription (TFB2M), adipogenesis (PIAS1), neuronal development (TLX3), immune function (IRF1) and vasculogenesis (SOX17), within a skeletal muscle context. However, none of the canonical pro-myogenic transcription factors (MYOD1, MYOG, MYF5, MYF6 and MEF2C) were linked to muscle structural gene expression modules. Co-expression values were computed using developing bovine muscle from 60 days post conception (early foetal) to 30 months post natal (adulthood) for two breeds of cattle, in addition to a nutritional comparison with a third breed. A number of transcriptional landscapes were constructed and integrated into an always correlated landscape. One notable feature was a 'metabolic axis' formed from glycolysis genes at one end, nuclear-encoded mitochondrial protein genes at the other, and centrally tethered by mitochondrially-encoded mitochondrial protein genes. Conclusions/Significance: The new module-to-regulator algorithm complements our recently described Regulatory Impact Factor analysis. Together with a simple examination of a co-expression module's contents, these three gene expression approaches are starting to illuminate the in vivo transcriptional regulation of skeletal muscle development

Moving beyond neurons: the role of cell type-specific gene regulation in Parkinson's disease heritability

Parkinson’s disease (PD), with its characteristic loss of nigrostriatal dopaminergic neurons and deposition of α-synuclein in neurons, is often considered a neuronal disorder. However, in recent years substantial evidence has emerged to implicate glial cell types, such as astrocytes and microglia. In this study, we used stratified LD score regression and expression-weighted cell-type enrichment together with several brain-related and cell-type-specific genomic annotations to connect human genomic PD findings to specific brain cell types. We found that PD heritability attributable to common variation does not enrich in global and regional brain annotations or brain-related cell-type-specific annotations. Likewise, we found no enrichment of PD susceptibility genes in brain-related cell types. In contrast, we demonstrated a significant enrichment of PD heritability in a curated lysosomal gene set highly expressed in astrocytic, microglial, and oligodendrocyte subtypes, and in LoF-intolerant genes, which were found highly expressed in almost all tested cellular subtypes. Our results suggest that PD risk loci do not lie in specific cell types or individual brain regions, but rather in global cellular processes detectable across several cell types

Large expert-curated database for benchmarking document similarity detection in biomedical literature search

Document recommendation systems for locating relevant literature have mostly relied on methods developed a decade ago. This is largely due to the lack of a large offline gold-standard benchmark of relevant documents that cover a variety of research fields such that newly developed literature search techniques can be compared, improved and translated into practice. To overcome this bottleneck, we have established the RElevant LIterature SearcH consortium consisting of more than 1500 scientists from 84 countries, who have collectively annotated the relevance of over 180 000 PubMed-listed articles with regard to their respective seed (input) article/s. The majority of annotations were contributed by highly experienced, original authors of the seed articles. The collected data cover 76% of all unique PubMed Medical Subject Headings descriptors. No systematic biases were observed across different experience levels, research fields or time spent on annotations. More importantly, annotations of the same document pairs contributed by different scientists were highly concordant. We further show that the three representative baseline methods used to generate recommended articles for evaluation (Okapi Best Matching 25, Term Frequency–Inverse Document Frequency and PubMed Related Articles) had similar overall performances. Additionally, we found that these methods each tend to produce distinct collections of recommended articles, suggesting that a hybrid method may be required to completely capture all relevant articles. The established database server located at https://relishdb.ict.griffith.edu.au is freely available for the downloading of annotation data and the blind testing of new methods. We expect that this benchmark will be useful for stimulating the development of new powerful techniques for title and title/abstract-based search engines for relevant articles in biomedical research