A Universal Model of Global Civil Unrest

Civil unrest is a powerful form of collective human dynamics, which has led to major transitions of societies in modern history. The study of collective human dynamics, including collective aggression, has been the focus of much discussion in the context of modeling and identification of universal patterns of behavior. In contrast, the possibility that civil unrest activities, across countries and over long time periods, are governed by universal mechanisms has not been explored. Here, we analyze records of civil unrest of 170 countries during the period 1919-2008. We demonstrate that the distributions of the number of unrest events per year are robustly reproduced by a nonlinear, spatially extended dynamical model, which reflects the spread of civil disorder between geographic regions connected through social and communication networks. The results also expose the similarity between global social instability and the dynamics of natural hazards and epidemics.Comment: 8 pages, 3 figure

A survey of task-oriented crowdsourcing

Since the advent of artificial intelligence, researchers have been trying to create machines that emulate human behaviour. Back in the 1960s however, Licklider (IRE Trans Hum Factors Electron 4-11, 1960) believed that machines and computers were just part of a scale in which computers were on one side and humans on the other (human computation). After almost a decade of active research into human computation and crowdsourcing, this paper presents a survey of crowdsourcing human computation systems, with the focus being on solving micro-tasks and complex tasks. An analysis of the current state of the art is performed from a technical standpoint, which includes a systematized description of the terminologies used by crowdsourcing platforms and the relationships between each term. Furthermore, the similarities between task-oriented crowdsourcing platforms are described and presented in a process diagram according to a proposed classification. Using this analysis as a stepping stone, this paper concludes with a discussion of challenges and possible future research directions.This work is part-funded by ERDF-European Regional Development Fund through the COMPETE Programme (Operational Programme for Competitiveness) and by National Funds through the FCT-Fundacao para a Ciencia e a Tecnologia (Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology) within the Ph.D. Grant SFRH/BD/70302/2010 and by the Projects AAL4ALL (QREN11495), World Search (QREN 13852) and FCOMP-01-0124-FEDER-028980 (PTDC/EEI-SII/1386/2012). The authors also thank Jane Boardman for her assistance proof reading the document.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Elevation and cholera: an epidemiological spatial analysis of the cholera epidemic in Harare, Zimbabwe, 2008-2009

BACKGROUND: In highly populated African urban areas where access to clean water is a challenge, water source contamination is one of the most cited risk factors in a cholera epidemic. During the rainy season, where there is either no sewage disposal or working sewer system, runoff of rains follows the slopes and gets into the lower parts of towns where shallow wells could easily become contaminated by excretes. In cholera endemic areas, spatial information about topographical elevation could help to guide preventive interventions. This study aims to analyze the association between topographic elevation and the distribution of cholera cases in Harare during the cholera epidemic in 2008 and 2009. METHODS: We developed an ecological study using secondary data. First, we described attack rates by suburb and then calculated rate ratios using whole Harare as reference. We illustrated the average elevation and cholera cases by suburbs using geographical information. Finally, we estimated a generalized linear mixed model (under the assumption of a Poisson distribution) with an Empirical Bayesian approach to model the relation between the risk of cholera and the elevation in meters in Harare. We used a random intercept to allow for spatial correlation of neighboring suburbs. RESULTS: This study identifies a spatial pattern of the distribution of cholera cases in the Harare epidemic, characterized by a lower cholera risk in the highest elevation suburbs of Harare. The generalized linear mixed model showed that for each 100 meters of increase in the topographical elevation, the cholera risk was 30% lower with a rate ratio of 0.70 (95% confidence interval=0.66-0.76). Sensitivity analysis confirmed the risk reduction with an overall estimate of the rate ratio between 20% and 40%. CONCLUSION: This study highlights the importance of considering topographical elevation as a geographical and environmental risk factor in order to plan cholera preventive activities linked with water and sanitation in endemic areas. Furthermore, elevation information, among other risk factors, could help to spatially orientate cholera control interventions during an epidemic

Making Associativity Operational

The purpose of this paper is to propose an operational idea for developing algebraic thinking in the absence of alphanumeric symbols. The paper reports on a design experiment encouraging preschool children to use the associative property algebraically. We describe the theoretical basis of the design, the tasks used, and examples of algebraic thinking in 5–6-year-old children. Theoretically, the paper makes a critical distinction between operational and structural meanings of the notion of equality. We argue that mathematical thinking involving equality among young learners can comprise both an operational and a structural conception and that the operational conception has a side that is productively linked to the structural conception. Using carefully designed hands-on tasks, the crux of the paper is the realization of algebraic thinking (in verbal mathematics) as operationally experienced in the ability to transform one number structure, with a quantity that is subject to change, into another through equality-preserving transformations

Neural processing of criticism and positive comments from relatives in individuals with schizotypal personality traits

Objectives. High negative expressed emotion by family members towards schizophrenia patients increases the risk of subsequent relapse. The study aimed to determine whether individuals with high schizotypy (HS) and low schizotypy (LS) would differ in activation of brain areas involved in cognitive control when listening to relative criticism

A systematic review of the non-surgical treatment of Perthes’ disease

Aims: Perthes’ disease is a condition leading to necrosis of the femoral head. It is most common in children aged four to nine years, affecting around one per 1,200 children in the UK. Management typically includes non-surgical treatment options, such as physiotherapy with/without surgical intervention. However, there is significant variation in care with no consensus on the most effective treatment option. Methods: This systematic review aims to evaluate the effectiveness of non-surgical interventions for the treatment of Perthes’ disease. Comparative studies (experimental or observational) of any non-surgical intervention compared directly with any alternative intervention (surgical, non-surgical or no intervention) were identified from: Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, MEDLINE, EMBASE, the Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), EMcare, Allied and Complementary Medicine Database (AMED), and the Physiotherapy Evidence Database (PEDro). Data were extracted on interventions compared and methodological quality. For post-intervention primary outcome of radiological scores (Stulberg and/or Mose), event rates for poor scores were calculated with significance values. Secondary outcomes included functional measures, such as range of movement, and patient-reported outcomes such as health-related quality of life. Results: In all, 15 studies (1,745 participants) were eligible for inclusion: eight prospective cohort studies, seven retrospective cohort studies, and no randomized controlled trials were identified. Non-surgical interventions largely focused on orthotic management (14/15 studies) and physical interventions such as muscle strengthening or stretching (5/15 studies). Most studies were of high/unknown risk of bias, and the range of patient outcomes was very limited, as was reporting of treatment protocols. Similar proportions of children achieving poor radiological outcomes were found for orthotic management and physical interventions, such as physiotherapy or weightbearing alteration, compared with surgical interventions or no intervention. Conclusion: Evidence from non-randomized studies found no robust evidence regarding the most effective non-surgical interventions for the treatment of children with Perthes’ disease. Future research, employing randomized trial designs, and reporting a wider range of patient outcomes is urgently needed to inform clinical practice

On BCFW shifts of integrands and integrals

In this article a first step is made towards the extension of Britto-Cachazo-Feng-Witten (BCFW) tree level on-shell recursion relations to integrands and integrals of scattering amplitudes to arbitrary loop order. Surprisingly, it is shown that the large BCFW shift limit of the integrands has the same structure as the corresponding tree level amplitude in any minimally coupled Yang-Mills theory in four or more dimensions. This implies that these integrands can be reconstructed from a subset of their `single cuts'. The main tool is powercounting Feynman graphs in a special lightcone gauge choice employed earlier at tree level by Arkani-Hamed and Kaplan. The relation between shifts of integrands and shifts of its integrals is investigated explicitly at one loop. Two particular sources of discrepancy between the integral and integrand are identified related to UV and IR divergences. This is cross-checked with known results for helicity equal amplitudes at one loop. The nature of the on-shell residue at each of the single-cut singularities of the integrand is commented upon. Several natural conjectures and opportunities for further research present themselves.Comment: 43 pages, 6 figures, v2: minor improvement in exposition, typos fixed, bibliography update

One-loop SYM-supergravity relation for five-point amplitudes

We derive a linear relation between the one-loop five-point amplitude of N=8 supergravity and the one-loop five-point subleading-color amplitudes of N=4 supersymmetric Yang-Mills theory.Comment: 17 pages, 2 figures; v2: very minor correction

Spatial patterns of mercury in biota of Adirondack, New York lakes

We studied the spatial distribution patterns of mercury (Hg) in lake water, littoral sediments, zooplankton, crayfish, fish, and common loons in 44 lakes of the Adirondacks of New York State, USA, a region that has been characterized as a “biological Hg hotspot”. Our study confirmed this pattern, finding that a substantial fraction of the lakes studied had fish and loon samples exceeding established criteria for human and wildlife health. Factors accounting for the spatial variability of Hg in lake water and biota were lake chemistry (pH, acid neutralizing capacity (ANC), percent carbon in sediments), biology (taxa presence, trophic status) and landscape characteristics (land cover class, lake elevation). Hg concentrations in zooplankton, fish and common loons were negatively associated with the lake water acid-base status (pH, ANC). Bioaccumulation factors (BAF) for methyl Hg (MeHg) increased from crayfish (mean log10 BAF = 5.7), to zooplankton (5.9), to prey fish (6.2), to larger fish (6.3), to common loons (7.2). MeHg BAF values in zooplankton, crayfish, and fish (yellow perch equivalent) all increased with increasing lake elevation. Our findings support the hypothesis that bioaccumulation of MeHg at the base of the food chain is an important controller of Hg concentrations in taxa at higher trophic levels. The characteristics of Adirondack lake-watersheds (sensitivity to acidic deposition; significant forest and wetland land cover; and low nutrient inputs) contribute to elevated Hg concentrations in aquatic biota