New approach to Dynamical Monte Carlo Methods: application to an Epidemic Model

A new approach to Dynamical Monte Carlo Methods is introduced to simulate markovian processes. We apply this approach to formulate and study an epidemic Generalized SIRS model. The results are in excellent agreement with the forth order Runge-Kutta Method in a region of deterministic solution. We also demonstrate that purely local interactions reproduce a poissonian-like process at mesoscopic level. The simulations for this case are checked self-consistently using a stochastic version of the Euler Method.Comment: Written with Scientific WorkPlace 3.51 in REVTex4 format, 11 pages with 2 figures in postscript forma

Role of breast regression protein-39/YKL-40 in asthma and allergic responses

BRP-39 and its human homolog YKL-40 have been regarded as a prototype of chitinase-like proteins (CLP) in mammals. Exaggerated levels of YKL-40 protein and/or mRNA have been noted in a number of diseases characterized by inflammation, tissue remodeling, and aberrant cell growth. Asthma is an inflammatory disease characterized by airway hyperresponsiveness and airway remodeling. Recently, the novel regulatory role of BRP-39/YKL-40 in the pathogenesis of asthma has been demonstrated both in human studies and allergic animal models. The levels of YKL-40 are increased in the circulation and lungs from asthmatics where they correlate with disease severity, and CHI3L1 polymorphisms correlate with serum YKL-40 levels, asthma and abnormal lung function. Animal studies using BRP-39 null mutant mice demonstrated that BRP-39 was required for optimal allergen sensitization and Th2 inflammation. These studies suggest the potential use of BRP-39 as a biomarker as well as a therapeutic target for asthma and other allergic diseases. Here, we present an overview of chitin/chitinase biology and summarize recent findings on the role of BRP-39 in the pathogenesis of asthma and allergic responses

Quality of life with conservative care compared with assisted peritoneal dialysis and haemodialysis

Background. There is little information about quality of life (QoL) for patients with end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) choosing conservative kidney management (CKM). The Frail and Elderly Patients on Dialysis (FEPOD) study demonstrated that frailty was associated with poorer QoL outcomes with little difference between dialysis modalities [assisted peritoneal dialysis (aPD) or haemodialysis (HD)]. We therefore extended the FEPOD study to include CKM patients with estimated glomerular filtration rate ⌉10 mL/min/1.73m2 (i.e. individuals with ESKD otherwise likely to be managed with dialysis). Methods. CKM patients were propensity matched to HD and aPD patients by age, gender, ethnicity, diabetes status and index of deprivation. QoL outcomes measured were Short Form-12 (SF12), Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale depression score, symptom score, Illness Intrusiveness Rating Scale (IIRS) and Renal Treatment Satisfaction Questionnaire. Frailty was assessed using the Clinical Frailty Scale. Generalized linear modelling was used to assess the impact of treatment modality on QoL outcomes, adjusting for baseline characteristics. Results. In total, 84 (28 CKM, 28 HD and 28 PD) patients were included. Median age for the cohort was 82 (79-88) years. Compared with CKM, aPD was associated with higher SF12 physical component score (PCS) [Exp B (95% confidence interval)=1.20 (1.00-1.45), P<0.05] and lower symptom score [Exp B=0.62 (0.43-0.90), P=0.01]; depression score was lower in HD compared with CKM [Exp B=0.70 (0.52-0.92), P=0.01]. Worsening frailty was associated with higher depression scores [Exp B=2.59 (1.45-4.62), P<0.01], IIRS [Exp B=1.20 (1.12-1.28), P<0.01] and lower SF12 PCS [Exp B=0.87 (0.83-0.93), P<0.01]. Conclusion. Treatment by dialysis, both with aPD and HD, improved some QoL measures. Overall, aPD was equal to or slightly better than the other modalities in this elderly population. However, as in the primary FEPOD study, frailty was associated with worse QoL measures irrespective of CKD modality. These findings highlight the need for an individualized approach to the management of ESKD in older people.Peer reviewedFinal Published versio

Predicting 30-day mortality after hip fracture surgery: Evaluation of the National Hip Fracture Database case-mix adjustment model.

OBJECTIVES: The National Hip Fracture Database (NHFD) publishes hospital-level risk-adjusted mortality rates following hip fracture surgery in England, Wales and Northern Ireland. The performance of the risk model used by the NHFD was compared with the widely-used Nottingham Hip Fracture Score. METHODS: Data from 94 hospitals on patients aged 60 to 110 who had hip fracture surgery between May 2013 and July 2013 were analysed. Data were linked to the Office for National Statistics (ONS) death register to calculate the 30-day mortality rate. Risk of death was predicted for each patient using the NHFD and Nottingham models in a development dataset using logistic regression to define the models' coefficients. This was followed by testing the performance of these refined models in a second validation dataset. RESULTS: The 30-day mortality rate was 5.36% in the validation dataset (n = 3861), slightly lower than the 6.40% in the development dataset (n = 4044). The NHFD and Nottingham models showed a slightly lower discrimination in the validation dataset compared with the development dataset, but both still displayed moderate discriminative power (c-statistic for NHFD = 0.71, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.67 to 0.74; Nottingham model = 0.70, 95% CI 0.68 to 0.75). Both models defined similar ranges of predicted mortality risk (1% to 18%) in assessment of calibration. CONCLUSIONS: Both models have limitations in predicting mortality for individual patients after hip fracture surgery, but the NHFD risk adjustment model performed as well as the widely-used Nottingham prognostic tool and is therefore a reasonable alternative for risk adjustment in the United Kingdom hip fracture population.Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2017;6:550-556

Gene duplications in prokaryotes can be associated with environmental adaptation

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Gene duplication is a normal evolutionary process. If there is no selective advantage in keeping the duplicated gene, it is usually reduced to a pseudogene and disappears from the genome. However, some paralogs are retained. These gene products are likely to be beneficial to the organism, e.g. in adaptation to new environmental conditions. The aim of our analysis is to investigate the properties of paralog-forming genes in prokaryotes, and to analyse the role of these retained paralogs by relating gene properties to life style of the corresponding prokaryotes.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Paralogs were identified in a number of prokaryotes, and these paralogs were compared to singletons of persistent orthologs based on functional classification. This showed that the paralogs were associated with for example energy production, cell motility, ion transport, and defence mechanisms. A statistical overrepresentation analysis of gene and protein annotations was based on paralogs of the 200 prokaryotes with the highest fraction of paralog-forming genes. Biclustering of overrepresented gene ontology terms versus species was used to identify clusters of properties associated with clusters of species. The clusters were classified using similarity scores on properties and species to identify interesting clusters, and a subset of clusters were analysed by comparison to literature data. This analysis showed that paralogs often are associated with properties that are important for survival and proliferation of the specific organisms. This includes processes like ion transport, locomotion, chemotaxis and photosynthesis. However, the analysis also showed that the gene ontology terms sometimes were too general, imprecise or even misleading for automatic analysis.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Properties described by gene ontology terms identified in the overrepresentation analysis are often consistent with individual prokaryote lifestyles and are likely to give a competitive advantage to the organism. Paralogs and singletons dominate different categories of functional classification, where paralogs in particular seem to be associated with processes involving interaction with the environment.</p

Anália Franco, uma referência em matéria de assistência à infância para as cidades do interior de São Paulo? (1901-1923)

Pelo fato de ter contribuído para fundar e encorpar uma organização assistencial particular que prestou, por largo tempo, assistência ao público, especialmente à infância, Anália Franco está entre as figuras cardeais da formação do campo das atenções à infância pobre em São Paulo. À diferença do típico filantropo de então, Anália Franco buscou dar substância pedagógica à ação assistencial, fato que se pode depreender do numeroso trabalho publicado de sua autoria que abrange de manuais didáticos a livros destinados às famílias para aconselhar sobre a melhor cria-ção dos filhos. Soma-se a esse empenho a posição de liderança e articuladora entre a sociedade civil, por intermédio da organização que presidia (a Associação Feminina Beneficente e Instruti-va, a AFBI), e o poder público a fim de angariar apoio econômico e político para um conjunto considerável de estabelecimentos assistenciais e escolares mantidos pela AFBI ou apoiados por ela. Sendo esses alguns elementos fundamentais acerca da biografia de Anália Franco, buscamos neste artigo indicar alguns aspectos sugestivos da sua posição como pessoa referencial para as cidades do interior paulista que mantiveram tratativas e/ou vínculos formais com a AFBI devido a criarem escolas, asilos infantis, liceus e creches em suas localidades. Para tanto examinamos fontes impressas, a exemplo de livros publicados pela AFBI e assinados por Anália, textos notici-osos em jornais, e documentação produzida pelo Asilo “Anália Franco” de Ribeirão Preto com o objetivo de colocar esse estabelecimento em primeiro plano enquanto um notório caso exemplar da posição referencial assumida por ela

Identifying financial crises in real time

Following the thermodynamic formulation of multifractal measure that was shown to be capable of detecting large fluctuations at an early stage, here we propose a new index which permits us to distinguish events like financial crisis in real time . We calculate the partition function from where we obtain thermodynamic quantities analogous to free energy and specific heat. The index is defined as the normalized energy variation and it can be used to study the behavior of stochastic time series, such as financial market daily data. Famous financial market crashes - Black Thursday (1929), Black Monday (1987) and Subprime crisis (2008) - are identified with clear and robust results. The method is also applied to the market fluctuations of 2011. From these results it appears as if the apparent crisis of 2011 is of a different nature from the other three. We also show that the analysis has forecasting capabilities.Comment: 8 pages, 6 figure

Predicting 30-day mortality after hip fracture surgery

Objectives The National Hip Fracture Database (NHFD) publishes hospital-level risk-adjusted mortality rates following hip fracture surgery in England, Wales and Northern Ireland. The performance of the risk model used by the NHFD was compared with the widely-used Nottingham Hip Fracture Score. Methods Data from 94 hospitals on patients aged 60 to 110 who had hip fracture surgery between May 2013 and July 2013 were analysed. Data were linked to the Office for National Statistics (ONS) death register to calculate the 30-day mortality rate. Risk of death was predicted for each patient using the NHFD and Nottingham models in a development dataset using logistic regression to define the models’ coefficients. This was followed by testing the performance of these refined models in a second validation dataset. Results The 30-day mortality rate was 5.36% in the validation dataset (n = 3861), slightly lower than the 6.40% in the development dataset (n = 4044). The NHFD and Nottingham models showed a slightly lower discrimination in the validation dataset compared with the development dataset, but both still displayed moderate discriminative power (c-statistic for NHFD = 0.71, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.67 to 0.74; Nottingham model = 0.70, 95% CI 0.68 to 0.75). Both models defined similar ranges of predicted mortality risk (1% to 18%) in assessment of calibration. Conclusions Both models have limitations in predicting mortality for individual patients after hip fracture surgery, but the NHFD risk adjustment model performed as well as the widely-used ­Nottingham prognostic tool and is therefore a reasonable alternative for risk adjustment in the United Kingdom hip fracture population

Predicting 30-day mortality after hip fracture surgery

Objectives The National Hip Fracture Database (NHFD) publishes hospital-level risk-adjusted mortality rates following hip fracture surgery in England, Wales and Northern Ireland. The performance of the risk model used by the NHFD was compared with the widely-used Nottingham Hip Fracture Score. Methods Data from 94 hospitals on patients aged 60 to 110 who had hip fracture surgery between May 2013 and July 2013 were analysed. Data were linked to the Office for National Statistics (ONS) death register to calculate the 30-day mortality rate. Risk of death was predicted for each patient using the NHFD and Nottingham models in a development dataset using logistic regression to define the models’ coefficients. This was followed by testing the performance of these refined models in a second validation dataset. Results The 30-day mortality rate was 5.36% in the validation dataset (n = 3861), slightly lower than the 6.40% in the development dataset (n = 4044). The NHFD and Nottingham models showed a slightly lower discrimination in the validation dataset compared with the development dataset, but both still displayed moderate discriminative power (c-statistic for NHFD = 0.71, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.67 to 0.74; Nottingham model = 0.70, 95% CI 0.68 to 0.75). Both models defined similar ranges of predicted mortality risk (1% to 18%) in assessment of calibration. Conclusions Both models have limitations in predicting mortality for individual patients after hip fracture surgery, but the NHFD risk adjustment model performed as well as the widely-used ­Nottingham prognostic tool and is therefore a reasonable alternative for risk adjustment in the United Kingdom hip fracture population

Rupture by damage accumulation in rocks

The deformation of rocks is associated with microcracks nucleation and propagation, i.e. damage. The accumulation of damage and its spatial localization lead to the creation of a macroscale discontinuity, so-called "fault" in geological terms, and to the failure of the material, i.e. a dramatic decrease of the mechanical properties as strength and modulus. The damage process can be studied both statically by direct observation of thin sections and dynamically by recording acoustic waves emitted by crack propagation (acoustic emission). Here we first review such observations concerning geological objects over scales ranging from the laboratory sample scale (dm) to seismically active faults (km), including cliffs and rock masses (Dm, hm). These observations reveal complex patterns in both space (fractal properties of damage structures as roughness and gouge), time (clustering, particular trends when the failure approaches) and energy domains (power-law distributions of energy release bursts). We use a numerical model based on progressive damage within an elastic interaction framework which allows us to simulate these observations. This study shows that the failure in rocks can be the result of damage accumulation