Risk register and risk intelligence: the challenge of operational risks in the energy sector

This paper presents the needs and the challenges encountered in developing a company-wide risk register in the energy sector. The study presented comes from an electricity generation company and it was useful to indicate areas where the concept of risk registers could be extended to make better use of existing data and to support continuous improvement of risk management. Six key areas are discussed 1) aggregation of risks across the business, 2) supporting controls over mitigation measures, 3) improved estimation of event likelihood, 4) integrating with critical asset registers, 5) improving risk communication, and 6) linking with day-to-day operational practice. The paper concludes with a framework for placing risk registers at the heart of Process Safety

Carbon turnover in the water-soluble protein of the adult human lens.

PurposeHuman eye lenses contain cells that persist from embryonic development. These unique, highly specialized fiber cells located at the core (nucleus) of the lens undergo pseudo-apoptosis to become devoid of cell nuclei and most organelles. Ostensibly lacking in protein transcriptional capabilities, it is currently believed that these nuclear fiber cells owe their extreme longevity to the perseverance of highly stable and densely packed crystallin proteins. Maintaining the structural and functional integrity of lenticular proteins is necessary to sustain cellular transparency and proper vision, yet the means by which the lens actually copes with a lifetime of oxidative stress, seemingly without any capacity for protein turnover and repair, is not completely understood. Although many years of research have been predicated upon the assumption that there is no protein turnover or renewal in nuclear fiber cells, we investigated whether or not different protein fractions possess protein of different ages by using the (14)C bomb pulse.MethodsAdult human lenses were concentrically dissected by gently removing the cell layers in water or shaving to the nucleus with a curved micrometer-controlled blade. The cells were lysed, and the proteins were separated into water-soluble and water-insoluble fractions. The small molecules were removed using 3 kDa spin filters. The (14)C/C was measured in paired protein fractions by accelerator mass spectrometry, and an average age for the material within the sample was assigned using the (14)C bomb pulse.ResultsThe water-insoluble fractions possessed (14)C/C ratios consistent with the age of the cells. In all cases, the water-soluble fractions contained carbon that was younger than the paired water-insoluble fraction.ConclusionsAs the first direct evidence of carbon turnover in protein from adult human nuclear fiber cells, this discovery supports the emerging view of the lens nucleus as a dynamic system capable of maintaining homeostasis in part due to intricate protein transport mechanisms and possibly protein repair. This finding implies that the lens plays an active role in the aversion of age-related nuclear (ARN) cataract

Microarray background correction: maximum likelihood estimation for the normal–exponential convolution

Background correction is an important preprocessing step for microarray data that attempts to adjust the data for the ambient intensity surrounding each feature. The “normexp” method models the observed pixel intensities as the sum of 2 random variables, one normally distributed and the other exponentially distributed, representing background noise and signal, respectively. Using a saddle-point approximation, Ritchie and others (2007) found normexp to be the best background correction method for 2-color microarray data. This article develops the normexp method further by improving the estimation of the parameters. A complete mathematical development is given of the normexp model and the associated saddle-point approximation. Some subtle numerical programming issues are solved which caused the original normexp method to fail occasionally when applied to unusual data sets. A practical and reliable algorithm is developed for exact maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) using high-quality optimization software and using the saddle-point estimates as starting values. “MLE” is shown to outperform heuristic estimators proposed by other authors, both in terms of estimation accuracy and in terms of performance on real data. The saddle-point approximation is an adequate replacement in most practical situations. The performance of normexp for assessing differential expression is improved by adding a small offset to the corrected intensities

Could blackbird mortality from avicide DRC-1339 contribute to avian botulism outbreaks in North Dakota?

Blackbird (family Icteridae) depredation on sunflower (Helianthus annuus) crops in the prairie states of the United States has motivated the proposed use of an avicide, DRC-1339 (3-chloro-4-methylaniline), to decrease their numbers. The resulting mortality of blackbirds at wetland roosts could increase the potential of avian botulism occurring in affected marshes. To assess this possibility, we seeded (artificially placed) blackbird carcasses in selected wetlands in Stutsman County, North Dakota, during August–September 2000 and July–September 2001 to evaluate their rate of decomposition and role in initiating avian botulism outbreaks. We monitored carcasses to determine their persistence, the frequency and amount of maggots produced, and the presence of type C. botulinum toxin. In 10 of our 12 study wetlands, blackbird carcasses were not rapidly removed by scavengers, thus providing substrate for maggot growth and potential production of Clostridium botulinum toxin. Decomposition of carcasses occurred rapidly, and maggot production averaged 4–5 g per carcass within 9 days. We were unable to detect C. botulinum type C toxin in any of the 377 blackbird carcasses or the 112 samples of maggots we collected in 2000 or 2001. None of the 25 blackbird carcasses we tested contained botulinum spores, the most probable explanation for the absence of botulinum toxin production. Our results indicate that the likelihood of DRC-1339-poisoned blackbirds causing botulism outbreaks would be minimal in North Dakota wetlands during late summer and early autumn

Acoustically driven storage of light in a quantum well

The strong piezoelectric fields accompanying a surface acoustic wave on a semiconductor quantum well structure are employed to dissociate optically generated excitons and efficiently trap the created electron hole pairs in the moving lateral potential superlattice of the sound wave. The resulting spatial separation of the photogenerated ambipolar charges leads to an increase of the radiative lifetime by orders of magnitude as compared to the unperturbed excitons. External and deliberate screening of the lateral piezoelectric fields triggers radiative recombination after very long storage times at a remote location on the sample.Comment: 4 PostScript figures included, Physical Review Letters, in pres

Enhanced sequential carrier capture into individual quantum dots and quantum posts controlled by surface acoustic waves

Individual self-assembled Quantum Dots and Quantum Posts are studied under the influence of a surface acoustic wave. In optical experiments we observe an acoustically induced switching of the occupancy of the nanostructures along with an overall increase of the emission intensity. For Quantum Posts, switching occurs continuously from predominantely charged excitons (dissimilar number of electrons and holes) to neutral excitons (same number of electrons and holes) and is independent on whether the surface acoustic wave amplitude is increased or decreased. For quantum dots, switching is non-monotonic and shows a pronounced hysteresis on the amplitude sweep direction. Moreover, emission of positively charged and neutral excitons is observed at high surface acoustic wave amplitudes. These findings are explained by carrier trapping and localization in the thin and disordered two-dimensional wetting layer on top of which Quantum Dots nucleate. This limitation can be overcome for Quantum Posts where acoustically induced charge transport is highly efficient in a wide lateral Matrix-Quantum Well.Comment: 11 pages, 5 figure

Clinical-dosimetric analysis of measures of dysphagia including gastrostomy-tube dependence among head and neck cancer patients treated definitively by intensity-modulated radiotherapy with concurrent chemotherapy

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Purpose</p> <p>To investigate the association between dose to various anatomical structures and dysphagia among patients with head and neck cancer treated by definitive intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) and concurrent chemotherapy.</p> <p>Methods and materials</p> <p>Thirty-nine patients with squamous cancer of the head and neck were treated by definitive concurrent chemotherapy and IMRT to a median dose of 70 Gy (range, 68 to 72). In each patient, a gastrostomy tube (GT) was prophylacticly placed prior to starting treatment. Prolonged GT dependence was defined as exceeding the median GT duration of 192 days. Dysphagia was scored using standardized quality-of-life instruments. Dose-volume histogram (DVH) data incorporating the superior/middle pharyngeal constrictors (SMPC), inferior pharyngeal constrictor (IPC), cricoid pharyngeal inlet (CPI), and cervical esophagus (CE) were analyzed in relation to prolonged GT dependence, dysphagia, and weight loss.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>At 3 months and 6 months after treatment, 87% and 44% of patients, respectively, were GT dependent. Spearman's ρ analysis identified statistical correlations (p < 0.05) between prolonged GT dependence or high grade dysphagia with IPC V65, IPC V60, IPC Dmean, and CPI Dmax. Logistic regression model showed that IPC V65 > 30%, IPC V60 > 60%, IPC Dmean > 60 Gy, and CPI Dmax > 62 Gy predicted for greater than 50% probability of prolonged GT dependence.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Our analysis suggests that adhering to the following parameters may decrease the risk of prolonged GT dependence and dysphagia: IPC V65 < 15%, IPC V60 < 40%, IPC Dmean < 55 Gy, and CPI Dmax < 60 Gy.</p

Best Practices for Biostatistical Consultation and Collaboration in Academic Health Centers

Given the increasing level and scope of biostatistics expertise needed at academic health centers today, we developed best practices guidelines for biostatistics units to be more effective in providing biostatistical support to their institutions, and in fostering an environment in which unit members can thrive professionally. Our recommendations focus on the key areas of: 1) funding sources and mechanisms; 2) providing and prioritizing access to biostatistical resources; and 3) interacting with investigators. We recommend that the leadership of biostatistics units negotiate for sufficient long-term infrastructure support to ensure stability and continuity of funding for personnel, align project budgets closely with actual level of biostatistical effort, devise and consistently apply strategies for prioritizing and tracking effort on studies, and clearly stipulate with investigators prior to project initiation policies regarding funding, lead time, and authorship

Gene regulation in parthenocarpic tomato fruit

Parthenocarpy is potentially a desirable trait for many commercially grown fruits if undesirable changes to structure, flavour, or nutrition can be avoided. Parthenocarpic transgenic tomato plants (cv MicroTom) were obtained by the regulation of genes for auxin synthesis (iaaM) or responsiveness (rolB) driven by DefH9 or the INNER NO OUTER (INO) promoter from Arabidopsis thaliana. Fruits at a breaker stage were analysed at a transcriptomic and metabolomic level using microarrays, real-time reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) and a Pegasus III TOF (time of flight) mass spectrometer. Although differences were observed in the shape of fully ripe fruits, no clear correlation could be made between the number of seeds, transgene, and fruit size. Expression of auxin synthesis or responsiveness genes by both of these promoters produced seedless parthenocarpic fruits. Eighty-three percent of the genes measured showed no significant differences in expression due to parthenocarpy. The remaining 17% with significant variation (P <0.05) (1748 genes) were studied by assigning a predicted function (when known) based on BLAST to the TAIR database. Among them several genes belong to cell wall, hormone metabolism and response (auxin in particular), and metabolism of sugars and lipids. Up-regulation of lipid transfer proteins and differential expression of several indole-3-acetic acid (IAA)- and ethylene-associated genes were observed in transgenic parthenocarpic fruits. Despite differences in several fatty acids, amino acids, and other metabolites, the fundamental metabolic profile remains unchanged. This work showed that parthenocarpy with ovule-specific alteration of auxin synthesis or response driven by the INO promoter could be effectively applied where such changes are commercially desirable

Hierarchical information clustering by means of topologically embedded graphs

We introduce a graph-theoretic approach to extract clusters and hierarchies in complex data-sets in an unsupervised and deterministic manner, without the use of any prior information. This is achieved by building topologically embedded networks containing the subset of most significant links and analyzing the network structure. For a planar embedding, this method provides both the intra-cluster hierarchy, which describes the way clusters are composed, and the inter-cluster hierarchy which describes how clusters gather together. We discuss performance, robustness and reliability of this method by first investigating several artificial data-sets, finding that it can outperform significantly other established approaches. Then we show that our method can successfully differentiate meaningful clusters and hierarchies in a variety of real data-sets. In particular, we find that the application to gene expression patterns of lymphoma samples uncovers biologically significant groups of genes which play key-roles in diagnosis, prognosis and treatment of some of the most relevant human lymphoid malignancies.Comment: 33 Pages, 18 Figures, 5 Table