Wicked Problems, Foolish Decisions: Promoting Sustainability through Urban Governance in a Complex World Symposium: Governing Wicked Problems

Why do wicked problems often give birth to bad policy choices? Put another way, why do people—in the face of complex social challenges—make misdiagnoses, ineffective decisions, or no decisions at all? Typical answers point to a plethora of suspects: impatience, myopia, political stalemate, narrow-mindedness, fear and risk aversion, hubris, greed, rational self-interest, ignorance, reliance on emotionally appealing but misleading anecdotal stories, misuse of evidence, and misunderstanding of uncertainty. Amid these divergent explanations, two classes emerge: one lies in the shortcomings and mistakes of the problem solvers, and the other lies in the nature of the problem itself. One stance is to fault the ostensible problem solvers: people are not always rational, fair, patient, thoughtful, or deliberative, but instead are myopic, selfish, greedy, power hungry, or out for revenge (among other motivations). The second stance is to point to the nature of the problem. This is the focus of this Article. In particular, we examine how the dynamics of wicked problems undermine traditional problem-solving efforts. This is not to absolve the problem solvers of responsibility for poor policy choices. It is the responsibility of policymakers to diagnose the distinctive challenges and needs of wicked problems and act accordingly. As urban planning scholars, we focus on entrenched urban problems. This focus is not accidental. Horst Rittel (an architect) and Melvin Webber (a planning theorist and transportation planner) developed the idea of “wicked problems” at the University of California, Berkeley’s College of Environmental Design in the early 1970s—an era when the optimism of solving complex social issues through technical, scientific solutions was colliding hard with the failure of such efforts to conclusively resolve urban poverty, inequality, deindustrialization, racism, white flight, and the violence of the “Urban Crisis.” In this Article, we build on previous research to demonstrate how complexity thinking can engage urban challenges at three levels: (1) describing “complexity” as a symptom of urban systems; (2) analyzing the dynamics of complex urban systems; and ultimately (3) intervening through appropriate planning strategies that account for complexity. We employ this thinking to engage the politics of sustainability at the same three levels, illustrating this at two geographic scales: the neighborhood (specifically, the challenge of ecogentrification) and the megaregion (and the resulting regional externalities and trade-offs). These scales involve actors, conflicts, and specializations within planning. Yet both represent new, hybrid patterns of urbanization that produce intractable problems of environmental unsustainability and social-spatial inequality—two core planning priorities that too often collide. Both situations also generate novel social policy challenges that conventional planning, thinking, and governance tools are ill-equipped to address. These challenges instead call for interdepartmental or intergovernmental cooperation

Harold Jeffreys's Theory of Probability Revisited

Published exactly seventy years ago, Jeffreys's Theory of Probability (1939) has had a unique impact on the Bayesian community and is now considered to be one of the main classics in Bayesian Statistics as well as the initiator of the objective Bayes school. In particular, its advances on the derivation of noninformative priors as well as on the scaling of Bayes factors have had a lasting impact on the field. However, the book reflects the characteristics of the time, especially in terms of mathematical rigor. In this paper we point out the fundamental aspects of this reference work, especially the thorough coverage of testing problems and the construction of both estimation and testing noninformative priors based on functional divergences. Our major aim here is to help modern readers in navigating in this difficult text and in concentrating on passages that are still relevant today.Comment: This paper commented in: [arXiv:1001.2967], [arXiv:1001.2968], [arXiv:1001.2970], [arXiv:1001.2975], [arXiv:1001.2985], [arXiv:1001.3073]. Rejoinder in [arXiv:0909.1008]. Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/09-STS284 the Statistical Science (http://www.imstat.org/sts/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Earth-Moon Impacts at ~300 Ma and ~500 Ma Ago

Impact events have played an important role in the evolution of planets and small bodies in the Solar System. Meteorites, lunar melt rocks, and lunar impact glasses provide important information about the geology of the parent body and the age of the impacting episodes. Over 2400 impact glasses from 4 Apollo regolith samples have been geochemically analyzed and a subset has been dated by the (40)Ar/(39)Ar method. New results, consistent with 2 break-ups in the Asteroid Belt, are presented here. Our previous study reported that (40)Ar/(39)Ar ages from 9 impact glasses showed that the Moon experienced significant impacts at approx. 800 Ma and at approx. 3800 Ma ago, somewhere in the vicinity of the Apollo 16 landing site. Additionally, reported on Apollo 12 samples with ages around 800 Ma, together implying global bombardment events. New data on 7 glasses from regolith sample 66041,127 show that the Moon also experienced impact events at approx. 300 Ma and > 500 Ma ago, which may coincide with the break-ups in the Asteroid Belt of the L- and H-chrondrite parent bodies. Since meteoritic evidence for these breakups has been found on Earth, it follows that evidence should be found in lunar samples as well. Additional information is included in the original extended abstract

CCD and photon-counting photometric observations of asteroids carried out at Padova and Catania observatories

We present the results of observational campaigns of asteroids performed at Asiago Station of Padova Astronomical Observatory and at M.G. Fracastoro Station of Catania Astrophysical Observatory, as part of the large research programme on Solar System minor bodies undertaken since 1979 at the Physics and Astronomy Department of Catania University. Photometric observations of six Main-Belt asteroids (27 Euterpe, 173 Ino, 182 Elsa, 539 Pamina, 849 Ara, and 984 Gretia), one Hungaria (1727 Mette), and two Near-Earth Objects (3199 Nefertiti and 2004 UE) are reported. The first determination of the synodic rotational period of 2004 UE was obtained. For 182 Elsa and 1727 Mette the derived synodic period of 80.23+/-0.08 h and 2.981+/-0.001 h, respectively, represents a significant improvement on the previously published values. For 182 Elsa the first determination of the H-G magnitude relation is also presented.Comment: 19 pages, 11 figures, accepted for publication in Planetary and Space Scienc

A revised asteroid polarization-albedo relationship using WISE/NEOWISE data

We present a reanalysis of the relationship between asteroid albedo and polarization properties using the albedos derived from the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer. We find that the function that best describes this relation is a three-dimensional linear fit in the space of log(albedo)-log(polarization slope)-log(minimum polarization). When projected to two dimensions the parameters of the fit are consistent with those found in previous work. We also define p* as the quantity of maximal polarization variation when compared with albedo and present the best fitting albedo-p* relation. Some asteroid taxonomic types stand out in this three-dimensional space, notably the E, B, and M Tholen types, while others cluster in clumps coincident with the S- and C-complex bodies. We note that both low albedo and small (D<30 km) asteroids are under-represented in the polarimetric sample, and we encourage future polarimetric surveys to focus on these bodies.Comment: 16 pages, Accepted to Ap

Physical Investigation of the Potentially Hazardous Asteroid (144898) 2004 VD17

In this paper we present the observational campaign carried out at ESO NTT and VLT in April and May 2006 to investigate the nature and the structure of the Near Earth Object (144898) 2004 VD17. In spite of a great quantity of dynamical information, according to which it will have a close approach with the Earth in the next century, the physical properties of this asteroid are largely unknown. We performed visible and near--infrared photometry and spectroscopy, as well as polarimetric observations. Polarimetric and spectroscopic data allowed us to classify 2004 VD17 as an E-type asteroid. A good agreement was also found with the spectrum of the aubrite meteorite Mayo Belwa. On the basis of the polarimetric albedo (p_v=0.45) and of photometric data, we estimated a diameter of about 320 m and a rotational period of about 2 hours. The analysis of the results obtained by our complete survey have shown that (144898) 2004 VD17 is a peculiar NEO, since it is close to the breakup limits for fast rotator asteroids, as defined by Pravec and Harris (2000). These results suggest that a more robust structure must be expected, as a fractured monolith or a rubble pile in a "strength regime" (Holsapple 2002).Comment: 32 pages, 7 figure, paper accepted for publication in Icaru

Ultraviolet and visible photometry of asteroid (21) Lutetia using the Hubble Space Telescope

The asteroid (21) Lutetia is the target of a planned close encounter by the Rosetta spacecraft in July 2010. To prepare for that flyby, Lutetia has been extensively observed by a variety of astronomical facilities. We used the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) to determine the albedo of Lutetia over a wide wavelength range, extending from ~150 nm to ~700 nm. Using data from a variety of HST filters and a ground-based visible light spectrum, we employed synthetic photometry techniques to derive absolute fluxes for Lutetia. New results from ground-based measurements of Lutetia's size and shape were used to convert the absolute fluxes into albedos. We present our best model for the spectral energy distribution of Lutetia over the wavelength range 120-800 nm. There appears to be a steep drop in the albedo (by a factor of ~2) for wavelengths shorter than ~300 nm. Nevertheless, the far ultraviolet albedo of Lutetia (~10%) is considerably larger than that of typical C-chondrite material (~4%). The geometric albedo at 550 nm is 16.5 +/- 1%. Lutetia's reflectivity is not consistent with a metal-dominated surface at infrared or radar wavelengths, and its albedo at all wavelengths (UV-visibile-IR-radar) is larger than observed for typical primitive, chondritic material. We derive a relatively high FUV albedo of ~10%, a result that will be tested by observations with the Alice spectrograph during the Rosetta flyby of Lutetia in July 2010.Comment: 14 pages, 2 tables, 8 figure

Differential expression analysis with global network adjustment

&lt;p&gt;Background: Large-scale chromosomal deletions or other non-specific perturbations of the transcriptome can alter the expression of hundreds or thousands of genes, and it is of biological interest to understand which genes are most profoundly affected. We present a method for predicting a gene’s expression as a function of other genes thereby accounting for the effect of transcriptional regulation that confounds the identification of genes differentially expressed relative to a regulatory network. The challenge in constructing such models is that the number of possible regulator transcripts within a global network is on the order of thousands, and the number of biological samples is typically on the order of 10. Nevertheless, there are large gene expression databases that can be used to construct networks that could be helpful in modeling transcriptional regulation in smaller experiments.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Results: We demonstrate a type of penalized regression model that can be estimated from large gene expression databases, and then applied to smaller experiments. The ridge parameter is selected by minimizing the cross-validation error of the predictions in the independent out-sample. This tends to increase the model stability and leads to a much greater degree of parameter shrinkage, but the resulting biased estimation is mitigated by a second round of regression. Nevertheless, the proposed computationally efficient “over-shrinkage” method outperforms previously used LASSO-based techniques. In two independent datasets, we find that the median proportion of explained variability in expression is approximately 25%, and this results in a substantial increase in the signal-to-noise ratio allowing more powerful inferences on differential gene expression leading to biologically intuitive findings. We also show that a large proportion of gene dependencies are conditional on the biological state, which would be impossible with standard differential expression methods.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Conclusions: By adjusting for the effects of the global network on individual genes, both the sensitivity and reliability of differential expression measures are greatly improved.&lt;/p&gt

Cells under pressure – the relationship between hydrostatic pressure and mesenchymal stem cell chondrogenesis

Early osteoarthritis (OA), characterised by cartilage defects, is a degenerative disease that greatly affects the adult population. Cell-based tissue engineering methods are being explored as a solution for the treatment of these chondral defects. Chondrocytes are already in clinical use but other cell types with chondrogenic properties, such as mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs), are being researched. However, present methods for differentiating these cells into stable articular-cartilage chondrocytes that contribute to joint regeneration are not effective, despite extensive investigation. Environmental stimuli, such as mechanical forces, influence chondrogenic response and are beneficial with respect to matrix formation. In vivo, the cartilage is subjected to multiaxial loading involving compressive, tensile, shear and fluid flow and cellular response. Tissue formation mechanobiology is being intensively studied in the cartilage tissue-engineering research field. The study of the effects of hydrostatic pressure on cartilage formation belongs to the large area of mechanobiology. During cartilage loading, interstitial fluid is pressurised and the surrounding matrix delays pressure loss by reducing fluid flow rate from pressurised regions. This fluid pressurisation is known as hydrostatic pressure, where a uniform stress around the cell occurs without cellular deformation. In vitro studies, examining chondrocytes under hydrostatic pressure, have described its anabolic effect and similar studies have evaluated the effect of hydrostatic pressure on MSC chondrogenesis. The present review summarises the results of these studies and discusses the mechanisms through which hydrostatic pressure exerts its effects

Main Belt Asteroids with WISE/NEOWISE I: Preliminary Albedos and Diameters

We present initial results from the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE), a four-band all-sky thermal infrared survey that produces data well suited to measuring the physical properties of asteroids, and the NEOWISE enhancement to the WISE mission allowing for detailed study of Solar system objects. Using a NEATM thermal model fitting routine we compute diameters for over 100,000 Main Belt asteroids from their IR thermal flux, with errors better than 10%. We then incorporate literature values of visible measurements (in the form of the H absolute magnitude) to determine albedos. Using these data we investigate the albedo and diameter distributions of the Main Belt. As observed previously, we find a change in the average albedo when comparing the inner, middle, and outer portions of the Main Belt. We also confirm that the albedo distribution of each region is strongly bimodal. We observe groupings of objects with similar albedos in regions of the Main Belt associated with dynamical breakup families. Asteroid families typically show a characteristic albedo for all members, but there are notable exceptions to this. This paper is the first look at the Main Belt asteroids in the WISE data, and only represents the preliminary, observed raw size and albedo distributions for the populations considered. These distributions are subject to survey biases inherent to the NEOWISE dataset and cannot yet be interpreted as describing the true populations; the debiased size and albedo distributions will be the subject of the next paper in this series.Comment: Accepted to ApJ. Online table to also appear on the publisher's websit