Adaptability of Irrigation to a Changing Monsoon in India: How far can we go?

Agriculture and the monsoon are inextricably linked in India. A large part of the steady rise in agricultural production since the onset of the Green Revolution in the 1960’s has been attributed to irrigation. Irrigation is used to supplement and buffer crops against precipitation shocks, but water availability for such use is itself sensitive to the erratic, seasonal and spatially heterogeneous nature of the monsoon. Most attention in the literature is given to crop yields (Guiteras, 2009; Fishman, 2012; Auffhammer et al, 2011) and their ability to withstand precipitation shocks, in the presence of irrigation (Fishman, 2012). However, there remains limited evidence about how natural weather variability and realized irrigation outcomes are related. We provide new evidence on the relationship between monsoon changes, irrigation variability and water availability by linking a process based hydrology model with an econometric model for one of the world’s most water stressed countries. India uses more groundwater for irrigation than any other country, and there is substantial evidence that this has led to depletion of groundwater aquifers. First, we build an econometric model of historical irrigation decisions using detailed crop-wise agriculture and weather data spanning 35 years from 1970-2004 for 311 districts across 19 major agricultural states in India. The source of agricultural data comes from the Village Dynamics in South Asia database at the International Crop Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT). Weather data is sourced from the only long term continental scale daily observationally gridded precipitation and temperature dataset called APHRODITE (Asian Precipitation- Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of the Water Resources), that captures the spatial extent of the monsoon across the Himalayas, South and South-East Asia, and the Middle East in great detail. We use panel data approaches to control for unobserved and omitted variables that can confound the true impacts of weather variability on irrigation. Exploiting the exogenous inter-annual variability in the monsoon, our multivariate regression models reveal that for crops grown in the wet season, irrigation is sensitive to distribution and total monsoon rainfall but not to ground or surface water availability. For crops grown in the dry season, total monsoon rainfall matters most, and its effect is sensitive to groundwater availability but differentially so for shallow dug wells and deep tube wells. The historical estimates from the econometric model are used to calculate future irrigated areas using three different bias-corrected climate model projections of monsoon climate for the years 2010 – 2050 under the strongest warming scenario ( business as usual scenario) RCP-8.5 from the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) models. These projections are then used as input to a physical hydrology model, such as the Water Balance Model, that tracks water use and exchange between the ground, atmosphere, runoff and stream networks. This enables us to quantify supply of water required to meet irrigation needs from sustainable sources such as rechargeable shallow groundwater, rivers and reservoirs, as well as unsustainable sources such as non- rechargeable groundwater. Preliminary results show that the significant variation in monsoon projections lead to very different results. Crops grown in the dry season show particularly divergent trends between model projections, leading to very different groundwater resource requirements. By combining the strengths of the economic and hydrology components, this work highlights potential sustainable or unsustainable water use trajectories that different regions within India will face

A solar cycle of spacecraft anomalies due to internal charging

International audienceIt is important to appreciate how the morphology of internal charging of spacecraft systems, due to penetrating electrons, differs from that of the more common surface charging, due to electrons with lower energy. A specific and recurrent anomaly on a geostationary communication satellite has been tracked for ten years so that solar cycle and seasonal dependencies can be clearly established. Concurrent measurements of sunspot number, solar wind speed and 2-day >2 MeV electron fluence are presented to highlight pertinent space weather relationships, and the importance of understanding the complex particle interaction processes involved

Resilience: Protective Factors for Depression and Post Traumatic Stress Disorder among African American Women?

There is a great need to carefully examine issues that may elevate one’s risk for mental illness and develop strategies to mitigate risk and cultivate resilience.  African Americans, specifically African American women (AAW), are disproportionately affected by mental illness, including depression and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD).  Higher rates of PTSD among AAW may be explained by significant rates of trauma exposure.  Higher resiliency in individuals with mental illnesses is associated with better treatment response/outcomes.  An examination of two (2) promising psycho-educational curricula for AAW at risk for depression and PTSD supports consideration of resilience as a protective factor among this population.  Strengthening psychological resilience among diverse AAW at risk for depression and/or PTSD may serve as a protective factor for symptom severity.  Multidimensional prevention and intervention strategies should incorporate culturally-centered, gender-specific, and strengths-based (resilience) models of care to help encourage mental health help-seeking and promotion of wellness for AAW

Highly Parallel Translation of DNA Sequences into Small Molecules

A large body of in vitro evolution work establishes the utility of biopolymer libraries comprising 1010 to 1015 distinct molecules for the discovery of nanomolar-affinity ligands to proteins.[1], [2], [3], [4], [5] Small-molecule libraries of comparable complexity will likely provide nanomolar-affinity small-molecule ligands.[6], [7] Unlike biopolymers, small molecules can offer the advantages of cell permeability, low immunogenicity, metabolic stability, rapid diffusion and inexpensive mass production. It is thought that such desirable in vivo behavior is correlated with the physical properties of small molecules, specifically a limited number of hydrogen bond donors and acceptors, a defined range of hydrophobicity, and most importantly, molecular weights less than 500 Daltons.[8] Creating a collection of 1010 to 1015 small molecules that meet these criteria requires the use of hundreds to thousands of diversity elements per step in a combinatorial synthesis of three to five steps. With this goal in mind, we have reported a set of mesofluidic devices that enable DNA-programmed combinatorial chemistry in a highly parallel 384-well plate format. Here, we demonstrate that these devices can translate DNA genes encoding 384 diversity elements per coding position into corresponding small-molecule gene products. This robust and efficient procedure yields small molecule-DNA conjugates suitable for in vitro evolution experiments

Mechanisms of breast cancer metastasis

Invasive breast cancer tends to metastasize to lymph nodes and systemic sites. The management of metastasis has evolved by focusing on controlling the growth of the disease in the breast/chest wall, and at metastatic sites, initially by surgery alone, then by a combination of surgery with radiation, and later by adding systemic treatments in the form of chemotherapy, hormone manipulation, targeted therapy, immunotherapy and other treatments aimed at inhibiting the proliferation of cancer cells. It would be valuable for us to know how breast cancer metastasizes; such knowledge would likely encourage the development of therapies that focus on mechanisms of metastasis and might even allow us to avoid toxic therapies that are currently used for this disease. For example, if we had a drug that targeted a gene that is critical for metastasis, we might even be able to cure a vast majority of patients with breast cancer. By bringing together scientists with expertise in molecular aspects of breast cancer metastasis, and those with expertise in the mechanical aspects of metastasis, this paper probes interesting aspects of the metastasis cascade, further enlightening us in our efforts to improve the outcome from breast cancer treatments

Extreme relativistic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt: Analysis of INTEGRAL IREM data

Relativistic electrons (E > 500 keV) cause internal charging and are an important space weather hazard. To assess the vulnerability of the satellite fleet to these so-called “killer” electrons, it is essential to estimate reasonable worst cases, and, in particular, to estimate the flux levels that may be reached once in 10 and once in 100 years. In this study we perform an extreme value analysis of the relativistic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt as a function of energy and L∗. We use data from the Radiation Environment Monitor (IREM) on board the International Gamma Ray Astrophysical Laboratory (INTEGRAL) spacecraft from 17 October 2002 to 31 December 2016. The 1 in 10 year flux at L∗=4.5, representative of equatorial medium Earth orbit, decreases with increasing energy ranging from 1.36 × 107 cm−2 s−1 sr−1 MeV−1 at E = 0.69 MeV to 5.34 × 105 cm−2 s−1 sr−1 MeV−1 at E = 2.05 MeV. The 1 in 100 year flux at L∗=4.5 is generally a factor of 1.1 to 1.2 larger than the corresponding 1 in 10 year flux. The 1 in 10 year flux at L∗=6.0, representative of geosynchronous orbit, decreases with increasing energy ranging from 4.35 × 106 cm−2 s−1 sr−1 MeV−1 at E = 0.69 MeV to 1.16 × 105 cm−2 s−1 sr−1 MeV−1 at E = 2.05 MeV. The 1 in 100 year flux at L∗=6.0 is generally a factor of 1.1 to 1.4 larger than the corresponding 1 in 10 year flux. The ratio of the 1 in 10 year flux at L∗=4.5 to that at L∗=6.0 increases with increasing energy ranging from 3.1 at E = 0.69 MeV to 4.6 at E = 2.05 MeV

Reactivity-Dependent PCR: Direct, Solution-Phase in Vitro Selection for Bond Formation

In vitro selection is a key component of efforts to discover functional nucleic acids and small molecules from libraries of DNA, RNA, and DNA-encoded small molecules. Such selections have been widely used to evolve RNA and DNA catalysts and, more recently, to discover new reactions from DNA-encoded libraries of potential substrates. While effective, current strategies for selections of bond-forming and bond-cleaving reactivity are generally indirect, require the synthesis of biotin-linked substrates, and involve multiple solution-phase and solid-phase manipulations. In this work we report the successful development and validation of reactivity-dependent PCR (RDPCR), a new method that more directly links bond formation or bond cleavage with the amplification of desired sequences and that obviates the need for solid-phase capture, washing, and elution steps. We show that RDPCR can be used to select for bond formation in the context of reaction discovery and for bond cleavage in the context of protease activity profiling.Chemistry and Chemical Biolog

Extreme energetic electron fluxes in low Earth orbit: Analysis of POES E > 30, E > 100 and E > 300 keV electrons

Energetic electrons are an important space weather hazard. Electrons with energies less than about 100 keV cause surface charging while higher energy electrons can penetrate materials and cause internal charging. In this study we conduct an extreme value analysis of the maximum 3-hourly flux of E> 30 keV, E> 100 keV and E> 300 keV electrons in low Earth orbit as a function of L∗, for geomagnetic field lines that map to the outer radiation belt, using data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Polar Operational Environmental Satellites (POES) from July 1998 to June 2014. The 1 in 10 year flux of E> 30 keV electrons shows a general increasing trend with distance ranging from 1.8×107 cm−2s−1sr−1 at L∗ = 3.0 to 6.6×107 cm−2s−1sr−1 at L∗ = 8.0. The 1 in 10 year flux of E> 100 keV electrons peaks at L∗= 4.5 - 5.0 at 1.9×107 cm−2s−1sr−1 decreasing to minima of 7.1×106 and 8.7×106 cm−2s−1sr−1 at L∗ = 3.0 and 8.0 respectively. In contrast to the E> 30 keV electrons, the 1 in 10 year flux of E> 300 keV electrons shows a general decreasing trend with distance, ranging from 2.4×106 cm−2s−1sr−1 at L∗ = 3.0 to 1.2×105 cm−2s−1sr−1 at L∗= 8.0. Our analysis suggests that there is a limit to the E> 30 keV electrons with an upper bound in the range 5.1×107- 8.8×107 cm−2s−1sr−1. However, the results suggest that there is no upper bound for the E> 100 keV and E> 300 keV electrons