Posterior probability intervals in Bayesian wavelet estimation

We use saddlepoint approximation to derive credible intervals for Bayesian wavelet regression estimates. Simulations show that the resulting intervals perform better than the best existing metho

Poisson transition rates from time-domain measurements with finite bandwidth

In time-domain measurements of a Poisson two-level system, the observed transition rates are always smaller than those of the actual system, a general consequence of finite measurement bandwidth in an experiment. This underestimation of the rates is significant even when the measurement and detection apparatus is ten times faster than the process under study. We derive here a quantitative form for this correction using a straightforward state-transition model that includes the detection apparatus, and provide a method for determining a system's actual transition rates from bandwidth-limited measurements. We support our results with computer simulations and experimental data from time-domain measurements of quasiparticle tunneling in a single-Cooper-pair transistor.Comment: 4 pages, 5 figure

Fundamental movement skills in relation to weekday and weekend physical activity in preschool children.

OBJECTIVES: To examine associations between fundamental movement skills and weekday and weekend physical activity among preschool children living in deprived communities. DESIGN: Cross-sectional observation study. METHODS: Six locomotor skills and 6 object-control skills were video-assessed using The Children's Activity and Movement in Preschool Study Motor Skills Protocol. Physical activity was measured via hip-mounted accelerometry. A total of 99 children (53% boys) aged 3-5 years (M 4.6, SD 0.5) completed all assessments. Multilevel mixed regression models were used to examine associations between fundamental movement skills and physical activity. Models were adjusted for clustering, age, sex, standardised body mass index and accelerometer wear time. RESULTS: Boys were more active than girls and had higher object-control skill competency. Total skill score was positively associated with weekend moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (p=0.034) but not weekday physical activity categories (p>0.05). When subdomains of skills were examined, object-control skills was positively associated with light physical activity on weekdays (p=0.008) and with light (p=0.033), moderate-to-vigorous (p=0.028) and light- and moderate-to-vigorous (p=0.008) physical activity at weekends. Locomotor skill competency was positively associated with moderate-to-vigorous physical activity on weekdays (p=0.016) and light physical activity during the weekend (p=0.035). CONCLUSIONS: The findings suggest that developing competence in both locomotor and object-control skills may be an important element in promoting an active lifestyle in young children during weekdays and at weekends

Data-driven efficient score tests for deconvolution problems

We consider testing statistical hypotheses about densities of signals in deconvolution models. A new approach to this problem is proposed. We constructed score tests for the deconvolution with the known noise density and efficient score tests for the case of unknown density. The tests are incorporated with model selection rules to choose reasonable model dimensions automatically by the data. Consistency of the tests is proved

Effect of a school-based active play intervention on sedentary time and physical activity in preschool children

Early childhood is a critical time for promoting physical activity. Few studies have investigated the effect of interventions in this population. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of a school-based active play intervention on preschool children’s sedentary time and physical activity. Preschool children were recruited from randomly selected preschools. Schools were randomly assigned to an intervention or comparison group. One teacher per intervention school received training from active play professionals in the delivery of a 6-week active play programme. Comparison schools continued their usual practice. Children wore a uni-axial accelerometer for 7 days at baseline, immediately after and at 6-month post-intervention. No significant intervention effects were observed for sedentary time or physical activity. However, sex and hours spent at school were significant predictors of physical activity. Children who spent fewer hours (half-day children) at school were significantly more active than their full-day counterparts. Physical activity during the intervention classes was high even though neither daily physical activity nor sedentary time changed. Notably children who spent more time at preschool were less active suggesting that preschool was not as conducive to physical activity engagement as other environments

Predicting evolution and visualizing high-dimensional fitness landscapes

The tempo and mode of an adaptive process is strongly determined by the structure of the fitness landscape that underlies it. In order to be able to predict evolutionary outcomes (even on the short term), we must know more about the nature of realistic fitness landscapes than we do today. For example, in order to know whether evolution is predominantly taking paths that move upwards in fitness and along neutral ridges, or else entails a significant number of valley crossings, we need to be able to visualize these landscapes: we must determine whether there are peaks in the landscape, where these peaks are located with respect to one another, and whether evolutionary paths can connect them. This is a difficult task because genetic fitness landscapes (as opposed to those based on traits) are high-dimensional, and tools for visualizing such landscapes are lacking. In this contribution, we focus on the predictability of evolution on rugged genetic fitness landscapes, and determine that peaks in such landscapes are highly clustered: high peaks are predominantly close to other high peaks. As a consequence, the valleys separating such peaks are shallow and narrow, such that evolutionary trajectories towards the highest peak in the landscape can be achieved via a series of valley crossingsComment: 12 pages, 7 figures. To appear in "Recent Advances in the Theory and Application of Fitness Landscapes" (A. Engelbrecht and H. Richter, eds.). Springer Series in Emergence, Complexity, and Computation, 201

In-depth study of moderately young but extremely red, very dusty substellar companion HD206893B

Accepted for publication in Astronomy & Astrophysics. Reproduced with permission from Astronomy & Astrophysics. © 2018 ESO.The substellar companion HD206893b has recently been discovered by direct imaging of its disc-bearing host star with the SPHERE instrument. We investigate the atypical properties of the companion, which has the reddest near-infrared colours among all known substellar objects, either orbiting a star or isolated, and we provide a comprehensive characterisation of the host star-disc-companion system. We conducted a follow-up of the companion with adaptive optics imaging and spectro-imaging with SPHERE, and a multiinstrument follow-up of its host star. We obtain a R=30 spectrum from 0.95 to 1.64 micron of the companion and additional photometry at 2.11 and 2.25 micron. We carried out extensive atmosphere model fitting for the companions and the host star in order to derive their age, mass, and metallicity. We found no additional companion in the system in spite of exquisite observing conditions resulting in sensitivity to 6MJup (2MJup) at 0.5" for an age of 300 Myr (50 Myr). We detect orbital motion over more than one year and characterise the possible Keplerian orbits. We constrain the age of the system to a minimum of 50 Myr and a maximum of 700 Myr, and determine that the host-star metallicity is nearly solar. The comparison of the companion spectrum and photometry to model atmospheres indicates that the companion is an extremely dusty late L dwarf, with an intermediate gravity (log g 4.5-5.0) which is compatible with the independent age estimate of the system. Though our best fit corresponds to a brown dwarf of 15-30 MJup aged 100-300 Myr, our analysis is also compatible with a range of masses and ages going from a 50 Myr 12MJup planetary-mass object to a 50 MJup Hyades-age brown dwarf...Peer reviewedFinal Accepted Versio

The Eruption of the Candidate Young Star ASASSN-15qi

Outbursts on young stars are usually interpreted as accretion bursts caused by instabilities in the disk or the star-disk connection. However, some protostellar outbursts may not fit into this framework. In this paper, we analyze optical and near-infrared spectra and photometry to characterize the 2015 outburst of the probable young star ASASSN-15qi. The $\sim 3.5$ mag brightening in the $V$ band was sudden, with an unresolved rise time of less than one day. The outburst decayed exponentially by 1 mag for 6 days and then gradually back to the pre-outburst level after 200 days. The outburst is dominated by emission from $\sim10,000$ K gas. An explosive release of energy accelerated matter from the star in all directions, seen in a spectacular cool, spherical wind with a maximum velocity of 1000 km/s. The wind and hot gas both disappeared as the outburst faded and the source the source returned to its quiescent F-star spectrum. Nebulosity near the star brightened with a delay of 10-20 days. Fluorescent excitation of H$_2$ is detected in emission from vibrational levels as high as $v=11$, also with a possible time delay in flux increase. The mid-infrared spectral energy distribution does not indicate the presence of warm dust emission, although the optical photospheric absorption and CO overtone emission could be related to a gaseous disk. Archival photometry reveals a prior outburst in 1976. Although we speculate about possible causes for this outburst, none of the explanations are compelling