A cardiovascular disease policy model:part 2-preparing for economic evaluation and to assess health inequalities

Objectives This is the second of two papers introducing a cardiovascular disease (CVD) policy model. The first paper described the structure and statistical underpinning of the state transition model, demonstrating how life expectancy estimates are generated for individuals defined by ASSIGN risk factors. This second paper describes how the model is prepared to undertake economic evaluation. Design To generate quality adjusted life expectancy (QALE), the Scottish Health Survey was used to estimate background morbidity (health utilities) and the impact of CVD events (utility decrements). The SF-6D algorithm generated utilities and decrements were modelled using ordinary least squares (OLS). To generate lifetime hospital costs the Scottish Heart Health Extended Cohort (SHHEC) was linked to the Scottish morbidity and death records (SMR) to cost each Continuous Inpatient Stay (CIS). OLS and restricted cubic splines estimated annual costs before and after each of the first four events. A Kaplan Meier Sample Average (KMSA) estimator was then used to weight expected health related quality of life and costs by the probability of survival. Results The policy model predicts the change in QALE and lifetime hospital costs as a result of an intervention(s) modifying risk factors. Cost effectiveness analysis and a full uncertainty analysis can be undertaken, including probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Notably, the impacts according to socioeconomic deprivation status can be made. Conclusions The policy model can conduct cost effectiveness analysis and decision analysis to inform approaches to primary prevention, including individually targeted and population interventions, and to assess impacts on health inequalities. </p

Will opposites attract? Similarities and differences in students' perceptions of the stereotype profiles of other health and social care professional groups

The extent to which health and social care (HSC) students hold stereotypical views of other HSC professional groups is of great potential importance to team working in health care. This paper explores students' perceptions of different HSC professional groups at the beginning of their university programmes. Findings are presented from an analysis of baseline data collected as part of the New Generation Project longitudinal cohort study which is assessing the impact of interprofessional education over time on a range of variables including stereotyping. Questionnaires were administered to a cohort of over 1200 students from 10 different HSC professional groups entering their first year of university. Stereotypes were measured using a tool adapted from Barnes et al. (2000) designed to elicit stereotype ratings on a range of nine characteristics. The findings confirm that students arrive at university with an established and consistent set of stereotypes about other health and social care professional groups. Stereotypical profiles were compiled for each professional group indicating the distinctive characteristics of the groups as well as the similarities and differences between groups. Midwives, social workers and nurses were rated most highly on interpersonal skills and on being a team player whilst doctors were rated most highly on academic ability. Doctors, midwives and social workers were perceived as having the strongest leadership role, whilst doctors were also rated most highly on decision making. All professions were rated highly on confidence and professional competence and, with the exception of social workers, on practical skills. A comparison of profiles for each professional group reveals that, for example, pharmacists and doctors were perceived as having very similar characteristics as were social workers, midwives and nurses. However, the profiles of nurses and doctors were perceived to be very different. The implications of these similarities and differences are discussed in terms of their potential impact on interprofessional interactions, role boundaries and team working

Stroke risk estimation across nine European countries in the MORGAM project.

Previous tools for stroke risk assessment have either been developed for specific populations or lack data on non-fatal events or uniform data collection. The purpose of this study was to develop a stepwise model for the estimation of 10 year risk of stroke in nine different countries across Europe.Using data from the MOnica Risk, Genetics, Archiving and Monograph (MORGAM) Project, sex-specific models estimating 10 year risk of stroke were developed using a Cox regression model stratified by country and including modelling of competing risks. Models were developed in a stepwise manner first using only data from questionnaires, and then adding data from physical examinations and finally data from blood samples.During 1,176,296 years of observation, 2928 incident fatal and non-fatal events of stroke were registered. The developed model showed good calibration and accuracy of prediction. The discrimination of the model varied between sex and country but increased with increasing number of variables used (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve between 0.77 and 0.79 in men and between 0.75 and 0.80 in women).The present study shows that using a large multicountry cohort from nine European countries it is possible to develop a stepwise risk estimation model for 10 year risk of stroke tailored to different availability of risk factors and still obtain valid measures of risk even in the simplest form of the model, with increasing performance of the model following increasing complexity. The methods chosen which separate this model from previous models (competing risk and stepwise approach) should be considered for future risk estimation models

Menelaus' theorem, Clifford configurations and inversive geometry of the Schwarzian KP hierarchy

It is shown that the integrable discrete Schwarzian KP (dSKP) equation which constitutes an algebraic superposition formula associated with, for instance, the Schwarzian KP hierarchy, the classical Darboux transformation and quasi-conformal mappings encapsulates nothing but a fundamental theorem of ancient Greek geometry. Thus, it is demonstrated that the connection with Menelaus' theorem and, more generally, Clifford configurations renders the dSKP equation a natural object of inversive geometry on the plane. The geometric and algebraic integrability of dSKP lattices and their reductions to lattices of Menelaus-Darboux, Schwarzian KdV, Schwarzian Boussinesq and Schramm type is discussed. The dSKP and discrete Schwarzian Boussinesq equations are shown to represent discretizations of families of quasi-conformal mappings.Comment: 26 pages, 9 figure

Adiposity has differing associations with incident coronary heart disease and mortality in the Scottish population: cross-sectional surveys with follow-up

Objective: Investigation of the association of excess adiposity with three different outcomes: all-cause mortality, coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality and incident CHD. Design: Cross-sectional surveys linked to hospital admissions and death records. Subjects: 19 329 adults (aged 18–86 years) from a representative sample of the Scottish population. Measurements: Gender-stratified Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for all-cause mortality, CHD mortality and incident CHD. Separate models incorporating the anthropometric measurements body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC) or waist–hip ratio (WHR) were created adjusted for age, year of survey, smoking status and alcohol consumption. Results: For both genders, BMI-defined obesity (greater than or equal to30 kg m−2) was not associated with either an increased risk of all-cause mortality or CHD mortality. However, there was an increased risk of incident CHD among the obese men (hazard ratio (HR)=1.78; 95% confidence interval=1.37–2.31) and obese women (HR=1.93; 95% confidence interval=1.44–2.59). There was a similar pattern for WC with regard to the three outcomes; for incident CHD, the HR=1.70 (1.35–2.14) for men and 1.71 (1.28–2.29) for women in the highest WC category (men greater than or equal to102 cm, women greater than or equal to88 cm), synonymous with abdominal obesity. For men, the highest category of WHR (greater than or equal to1.0) was associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality (1.29; 1.04–1.60) and incident CHD (1.55; 1.19–2.01). Among women with a high WHR (greater than or equal to0.85) there was an increased risk of all outcomes: all-cause mortality (1.56; 1.26–1.94), CHD mortality (2.49; 1.36–4.56) and incident CHD (1.76; 1.31–2.38). Conclusions: In this study excess adiposity was associated with an increased risk of incident CHD but not necessarily death. One possibility is that modern medical intervention has contributed to improved survival of first CHD events. The future health burden of increased obesity levels may manifest as an increase in the prevalence of individuals living with CHD and its consequences

Exploring the equity of GP practice prescribing rates for selected coronary heart disease drugs: a multiple regression analysis with proxies of healthcare need

Background There is a small, but growing body of literature highlighting inequities in GP practice prescribing rates for many drug therapies. The aim of this paper is to further explore the equity of prescribing for five major CHD drug groups and to explain the amount of variation in GP practice prescribing rates that can be explained by a range of healthcare needs indicators (HCNIs). Methods The study involved a cross-sectional secondary analysis in four primary care trusts (PCTs 1–4) in the North West of England, including 132 GP practices. Prescribing rates (average daily quantities per registered patient aged over 35 years) and HCNIs were developed for all GP practices. Analysis was undertaken using multiple linear regression. Results Between 22–25% of the variation in prescribing rates for statins, beta-blockers and bendrofluazide was explained in the multiple regression models. Slightly more variation was explained for ACE inhibitors (31.6%) and considerably more for aspirin (51.2%). Prescribing rates were positively associated with CHD hospital diagnoses and procedures for all drug groups other than ACE inhibitors. The proportion of patients aged 55–74 years was positively related to all prescribing rates other than aspirin, where they were positively related to the proportion of patients aged >75 years. However, prescribing rates for statins and ACE inhibitors were negatively associated with the proportion of patients aged >75 years in addition to the proportion of patients from minority ethnic groups. Prescribing rates for aspirin, bendrofluazide and all CHD drugs combined were negatively associated with deprivation. Conclusion Although around 25–50% of the variation in prescribing rates was explained by HCNIs, this varied markedly between PCTs and drug groups. Prescribing rates were generally characterised by both positive and negative associations with HCNIs, suggesting possible inequities in prescribing rates on the basis of ethnicity, deprivation and the proportion of patients aged over 75 years (for statins and ACE inhibitors, but not for aspirin)

Generalized isothermic lattices

We study multidimensional quadrilateral lattices satisfying simultaneously two integrable constraints: a quadratic constraint and the projective Moutard constraint. When the lattice is two dimensional and the quadric under consideration is the Moebius sphere one obtains, after the stereographic projection, the discrete isothermic surfaces defined by Bobenko and Pinkall by an algebraic constraint imposed on the (complex) cross-ratio of the circular lattice. We derive the analogous condition for our generalized isthermic lattices using Steiner's projective structure of conics and we present basic geometric constructions which encode integrability of the lattice. In particular, we introduce the Darboux transformation of the generalized isothermic lattice and we derive the corresponding Bianchi permutability principle. Finally, we study two dimensional generalized isothermic lattices, in particular geometry of their initial boundary value problem.Comment: 19 pages, 11 figures; v2. some typos corrected; v3. new references added, higlighted similarities and differences with recent papers on the subjec

Systematically missing confounders in individual participant data meta-analysis of observational cohort studies.

One difficulty in performing meta-analyses of observational cohort studies is that the availability of confounders may vary between cohorts, so that some cohorts provide fully adjusted analyses while others only provide partially adjusted analyses. Commonly, analyses of the association between an exposure and disease either are restricted to cohorts with full confounder information, or use all cohorts but do not fully adjust for confounding. We propose using a bivariate random-effects meta-analysis model to use information from all available cohorts while still adjusting for all the potential confounders. Our method uses both the fully adjusted and the partially adjusted estimated effects in the cohorts with full confounder information, together with an estimate of their within-cohort correlation. The method is applied to estimate the association between fibrinogen level and coronary heart disease incidence using data from 154,012 participants in 31 cohort

Does adding information on job strain improve risk prediction for coronary heart disease beyond the standard Framingham risk score? The Whitehall II study

Background Guidelines for coronary heart disease (CHD) prevention recommend using multifactorial risk prediction algorithms, particularly the Framingham risk score. We sought to examine whether adding information on job strain to the Framingham model improves its predictive power in a low-risk working population