Technical Note: Is radiation important for the high amplitude variability of the MOC in the North Atlantic?

International audienceRadiation is of fundamental importance to climate modeling and it is customary to assume that it is also important for the variability of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) formation and the meridional overturning cell (MOC). Numerous articles follow this scenario and incorporate radiation into the calculation. Using relatively old heat-flux maps based on measurements taken in the nineteen sixties, Sandal and Nof (2007) recently suggested that, even though the radiation terms are of the same order as the other heat-flux terms, they are not important for the variability of the NADW and the MOC. They proposed that only sensible and latent heat fluxes are important for the long-term variability of the convection, i.e., for processes such as Heinrich events, which supposedly correspond to turning convection on-and-off in the Atlantic. Here, we place this suggestion on a firmer ground by presenting new and accurate up-to-date heat flux maps that also suggest that the radiation is of no major consequence to the NADW variability. Also, we attribute the relative importance of sensible and latent heat fluxes and the contrasting negligible role of radiation to the fact that the latent and sensible heat fluxes are primarily proportional to the difference between the sea surface and the air temperature whereas the radiation is primarily proportional to the sea surface temperature, i.e., radiation is approximately independent of the atmospheric temperature. Due the small heat capacity ratio of air/water (1/4), the difference between the ocean temperature and the air temperature varies dramatically between the state of active and inactive MOC, whereas the ocean temperature by itself varies very modestly between a state of active and inactive convection

Retroflection from slanted coastlines ? circumventing the "vorticity paradox"

International audienceThe balance of long-shore momentum flux requires that the solution of retroflecting currents involves ring shedding on the western side. An important aspect of the ring dynamics is the ring intensity ? (analogous to the Rossby number), which reaches its maximum value of unity when the upstream potential vorticity (PV) is zero. Friction leads to a slow-down and a decrease in ?. The main difficulty is that the solution of the system of equations for conservation of mass and momentum of zonal currents leads to the conclusion that the ratio (?) of the mass flux going into the rings and the total incoming mass flux is approximately 4?/(1+2?). This yields the "vorticity paradox" ? only relatively weak rings (??1/2) could satisfy the necessary condition ??1. Physically, this means, for example, that the momentum-flux of zero PV currents upstream is so high that, no matter how many rings are produced and no matter what size they are, they cannot compensate for it. To avoid this paradox, we develop a nonlinear analytical model of retroflection from a slanted non-zonal coastline. We show that when the slant of coastline (?) exceeds merely 15°, ? does not reach unity regardless of the value of ?. Namely, the paradox disappears even for small slants. Our slowly varying nonlinear solution does not only let us circumvent the paradox. It also gives a detailed description of the rings growth rate and the mass flux going into the rings as a function of time. For example, in the case of zero PV and zero thickness of the upper layer along the coastline, the maximal values of ? can be approximately expressed as, 1.012+0.32 exp (-?/3.41)-?/225. Interestingly, for significant slants (??30°), the rings reach a terminal size corresponding to a balance between the ?-force and the upstream momentum flux. This terminal size is unrelated to the ultimate detachment and westward drift due to ?. Our analytical solutions are in very good agreement with the results of a numerical model which we run

Retroflection from a double-slanted coastline: a model for the Agulhas leakage variability

The Agulhas leakage to the South Atlantic exhibits a strong anti-correlation with the mass flux of the Agulhas Current. When the Agulhas retroflection is in its normal position near Cape Agulhas, leakage is relatively high and the nearby South African coastal slant (angle of derivation from zonal) is very small and relatively invariant alongshore. During periods of strong incoming flux (low leakage), the retroflection shifts upstream to Port Elizabeth or East London, where the coastline shape has a "kink", i.e., the slant changes abruptly from small on the west side, to large (about 55°) on the east side. Here, we show that the variability of rings shedding and anti-correlation between Agulhas mass flux and leakage to the South Atlantic may be attributed to this kink. <br><br> To do so, we develop a nonlinear analytical model for retroflection near a coastline that consists of two sections, a zonal western section and a strongly slanted eastern section. The principal difference between this and the model of a straight slanted coast (discussed in our earlier papers) is that, here, free purely westward propagation of eddies along the zonal coastline section is allowed. This introduces an interesting situation in which strong slant of the coast east of the kink prohibits the formation and shedding of rings, while the almost zonal coastal orientation west of the kink encourages shedding. Therefore, the kink "locks" the position of the retroflection, forcing it to occur just downstream of the kink. Rings are necessarily shed from the retroflection area in our kinked model, regardless of the degree of eastern coast slant. In contrast, a no-kink model with a coastline of intermediate slant indicates that shedding is almost completely arrested by that slant. <br><br> We suggest that the observed difference in ring-shedding intensity during times of normal retroflection position and times when the retroflection is shifted eastward is due to the change in the retroflection location with respect to the kink. When the incoming flux detaches from the coast north of the kink, ring transport is small; when the flux detaches south of the kink, transport is large. Simple process-oriented numerical simulations are in fair agreement with our analytical results

Simple models for the heat flux from the Atlantic meridional overturning cell to the atmosphere

It has been suggested that a slowdown of the Atlantic meridional overturning cell (AMOC) would cause the Northern Hemisphere to cool by a few degrees. We use a sequence of simple analytical models to show that due to the nonlinearity of the system, the simplified heat flux from the modeled AMOC to the atmosphere above is so robust that even changes of as much as 50% in the present AMOC transport are not enough to significantly change the temperature of the outgoing warmed atmosphere (i.e., the fraction of the atmosphere warmed by the AMOC). Our most realistic model (which is still a far cry from reality) involves a warm ocean losing heat to an otherwise motionless and colder atmosphere. As a result, the compressible atmosphere convects, and the generated airflow ultimately penetrates horizontally into the surrounding air. The behavior of the system is attributable to four key aspects of the underlying physical processes: (1) convective atmospheric transport increases by warming the atmosphere, (2) the ocean is warmer than the atmosphere, (3) the surface heat flux is usually proportional to the temperature difference between the ocean and the atmosphere, and (4) the specific heat capacity of water is much larger than that of the air. Taken together, these properties of the system lead to the existence of a dynamic “asymptotic” state, a modeled regime, in which even significant changes in the AMOC transport have almost no effect on the ocean-atmosphere heat flux and the resulting outgoing atmospheric temperature. In the hypothetical limit of an infinitely large specific heat capacity of water, Cpw there is no change in either the atmospheric transport or the temperatures of the ocean and the atmosphere, regardless of how large the reduction in the AMOC transport is. Although our models may be too simple to allow for a direct application to the ocean and atmosphere, they do shed light on the processes in question

Test-Retest Reliability and Minimal Detectable Change Scores for the Timed Up & Go Test, the Six-Minute Walk Test, and Gait Speed in People With Alzheimer Disease

Background. With the increasing incidence of Alzheimer disease (AD), determining the validity and reliability Of Outcome measures for people with this disease is necessary. Objective. The goals of this study were to assess test-retest reliability of data for the Timed Up & Go Test (TUG), the Six-Minute Walk Test (6MWT), and gait speed and to calculate minimal detectable change (MDC) scores for each outcome measure. Performance differences between groups With mild to moderate AD and moderately severe to severe AD (as determined by the Functional Assessment Staging [FAST] scale) were Studied. Design. This was a prospective, nonexperimental, descriptive methodological study. Methods. Background data collected for 51 people with AD included: use of an assistive device, Mini-Mental Status Examination scores, and FAST scale scores. Each participant engaged in 2 test sessions, separated by a 30- to 60-minute rest period, which included 2 TUG trials, I 6MWT trial, and 2 gait speed trials using a computerized gait assessment system. A specific cuing protocol was followed to achieve optimal performance during test sessions. Results. Test-retest reliability values for the TUG, the 6MWT, and gait speed were high for all participants together and for the mild to moderate AD and moderately severe to severe AD groups separately (intraclass correlation coefficients \u3e=.973); however, individual variability of performance also was high. Calculated MDC scores at the 90% confidence interval were: TUG=4.09 seconds, 6MWT=33.5 m (110 ft), and gait speed=9.4 cm/s. The 2 groups were significantly different in performance of clinical tests, with the participants who were more cognitively impaired being more physically and functionally impaired. Limitations. A single researcher for data collection limited sample numbers and prohibited blinding to dementia level. Conclusions. The TUG, the 6MWT, and gait speed are reliable outcome measures for use with people with AD, recognizing that individual variability of performance is high. Minimal detectable change scores at the 90% confidence interval can be used to assess change in performance over time and the impact of treatment. © 2009 American Physical Therapy Associatio

Dynamics of Wind Setdown at Suez and the Eastern Nile Delta

BACKGROUND: Wind setdown is the drop in water level caused by wind stress acting on the surface of a body of water for an extended period of time. As the wind blows, water recedes from the upwind shore and exposes terrain that was formerly underwater. Previous researchers have suggested wind setdown as a possible hydrodynamic explanation for Moses crossing the Red Sea, as described in Exodus 14. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: This study analyzes the hydrodynamic mechanism proposed by earlier studies, focusing on the time needed to reach a steady-state solution. In addition, the authors investigate a site in the eastern Nile delta, where the ancient Pelusiac branch of the Nile once flowed into a coastal lagoon then known as the Lake of Tanis. We conduct a satellite and modeling survey to analyze this location, using geological evidence of the ancient bathymetry and a historical description of a strong wind event in 1882. A suite of model experiments are performed to demonstrate a new hydrodynamic mechanism that can cause an angular body of water to divide under wind stress, and to test the behavior of our study location and reconstructed topography. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Under a uniform 28 m/s easterly wind forcing in the reconstructed model basin, the ocean model produces an area of exposed mud flats where the river mouth opens into the lake. This land bridge is 3-4 km long and 5 km wide, and it remains open for 4 hours. Model results indicate that navigation in shallow-water harbors can be significantly curtailed by wind setdown when strong winds blow offshore

A conceptual model of an Arctic sea

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2012. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research 117 (2012): C06010, doi:10.1029/2011JC007652.We propose a conceptual model for an Arctic sea that is driven by river runoff, atmospheric fluxes, sea ice melt/growth, and winds. The model domain is divided into two areas, the interior and boundary regions, that are coupled through Ekman and eddy fluxes of buoyancy. The model is applied to Hudson and James Bays (HJB, a large inland basin in northeastern Canada) for the period 1979–2007. Several yearlong records from instruments moored within HJB show that the model results are consistent with the real system. The model notably reproduces the seasonal migration of the halocline, the baroclinic boundary current, spatial variability of freshwater content, and the fall maximum in freshwater export. The simulations clarify the important differences in the freshwater balance of the western and eastern sides of HJB. The significant role played by the boundary current in the freshwater budget of the system, and its sensitivity to the wind-forcing, are also highlighted by the simulations and new data analyses. We conclude that the model proposed is useful for the interpretation of observed data from Arctic seas and model outputs from more complex coupled/climate models.We thank NSERC and the Canada Research Chairs program for funding. FS acknowledges support from NSF OCE–0927797 and ONR N00014-08-10490.2012-12-2

Transcription profiling of HCN-channel isotypes throughout mouse cardiac development

Hyperpolarization-activated ion channels, encoded by four mammalian genes (HCN1-4), contribute in an important way to the cardiac pacemaker current If. Here, we describe the transcription profiles of the four HCN genes, the NRSF, KCNE2 and Kir2.1 genes from embryonic stage E9.5 dpc to postnatal day 120 in the mouse. Embryonic atrium and ventricle revealed abundant HCN4 transcription but other HCN transcripts were almost absent. Towards birth, HCN4 was downregulated in the atrium and almost vanished from the ventricle. After birth, however, HCN isotype transcription changed remarkably, showing increased levels of HCN1, HCN2 and HCN4 in the atrium and of HCN2 and HCN4 in the ventricle. HCN3 showed highest transcription at early embryonic stages and was hardly detectable thereafter. At postnatal day 10, HCN4 was highest in the sinoatrial node, being twofold higher than HCN1 and fivefold higher than HCN2. In the atrium, HCN4 was similar to HCN1 and sevenfold higher than HCN2. In the ventricle, in contrast, HCN2 was sixfold higher than HCN4, while HCN1 was absent. Subsequently all HCN isotype transcripts declined to lower adult levels, while ratios of HCN isotypes remained stable. In conclusion, substantial changes of HCN isotype transcription throughout cardiac development suggest that a regulated pattern of HCN isotypes is required to establish and ensure a stable heart rhythm. Furthermore, constantly low HCN transcription in adult myocardium may be required to prevent atrial and ventricular arrhythmogenesis

Mississippi River and Sea Surface Height Effects on Oil Slick Migration

Millions of barrels of oil escaped into the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) after the 20 April, 2010 explosion of Deepwater Horizon (DH). Ocean circulation models were used to forecast oil slick migration in the GoM, however such models do not explicitly treat the effects of secondary eddy-slopes or Mississippi River (MR) hydrodynamics. Here we report oil front migration that appears to be driven by sea surface level (SSL) slopes, and identify a previously unreported effect of the MR plume: under conditions of relatively high river discharge and weak winds, a freshwater mound can form around the MR Delta. We performed temporal oil slick position and altimeter analysis, employing both interpolated altimetry data and along-track measurements for coastal applications. The observed freshwater mound appears to have pushed the DH oil slick seaward from the Delta coastline. We provide a physical mechanism for this novel effect of the MR, using a two-layer pressure-driven flow model. Results show how SSL variations can drive a cross-slope migration of surface oil slicks that may reach velocities of order km/day, and confirm a lag time of order 5–10 days between mound formation and slick migration, as observed form the satellite analysis. Incorporating these effects into more complex ocean models will improve forecasts of slick migration for future spills. More generally, large SSL variations at the MR mouth may also affect the dispersal of freshwater, nutrients and sediment associated with the MR plume

Updated fracture incidence rates for the US version of FRAX®

# The Author(s) 2009. This article is published with open access at Springerlink.com Summary On the basis of updated fracture and mortality data, we recommend that the base population values used in the US version of FRAX ® be revised. The impact of suggested changes is likely to be a lowering of 10-year fracture probabilities. Introduction Evaluation of results produced by the US version of FRAX ® indicates that this tool overestimates the likelihood of major osteoporotic fracture. In an attempt to correct this, we updated underlying fracture and mortality rates for the model. Methods We used US hospital discharge data from 2006 t