Nonlinear Interactions of Sea‐Level Rise and Storm Tide Alter Extreme Coastal Water Levels: How and Why?

Sea-level rise (SLR) increasingly threatens coastal communities around the world. However, not all coastal communities are equally threatened, and realistic estimation of hazard is difficult. Understanding SLR impacts on extreme sea level is challenging due to interactions between multiple tidal and non-tidal flood drivers. We here use global hourly tidal data to show how and why tides and surges interact with mean sea level (MSL) fluctuations. At most locations around the world, the amplitude of at least one tidal constituent and/or amplitude of non-tidal residual have changed in response to MSL variation over the past few decades. In 37% of studied locations, “Potential Maximum Storm Tide” (PMST), a proxy for extreme sea level dynamics, co-varies with MSL variations. Over all stations, the median PMST will be 20% larger by the mid-century, and conventional approaches that simply shift the current storm tide regime up at the rate of projected SLR may underestimate the flooding hazard at these locations by up to a factor of four. Micro- and meso-tidal systems and those with diurnal tidal regime are generally more susceptible to altered MSL than other categories. The nonlinear interactions of MSL and storm tide captured in PMST statistics contribute, along with projected SLR, to the estimated increase in flood hazard at three-fourth of studied locations by mid-21st century. PMST is a threshold that captures nonlinear interactions between extreme sea level components and their co-evolution over time. Thus, use of this statistic can help direct assessment and design of critical coastal infrastructure

Co-designing inflammatory bowel disease (Ibd) services in Scotland : findings from a nationwide survey

Background: The Scottish Government’s ambition is to ensure that health services are co-designed with the communities they serve. Crohn’s and Colitis UK and the Scottish Government acknowledged the need to review and update the current IBD care model. An online survey was conducted asking IBD patients about their experiences of the NHS care they receive. This survey was the first step of co-designing and developing a national strategy for IBD service improvement in Scotland. Aim: To explore IBD patients’ experiences of current services and make recommendations for future service development. Methods: This study was part of a wider cross-sectional on-line survey. Participants were patients with IBD across Scotland. 777 people with IBD took part in the survey. Thematic analysis of all data was conducted independently by two researchers. Results: Three key themes emerged: Quality of life: Participants highlighted the impact the disease has on quality of life and the desperate need for IBD services to address this more holistically. IBD clinicians and access: Participants recognised the need for more IBD nurses and gastroenterologists along with better access to them. Those with a named IBD nurse reported to be more satisfied with their care. An explicit IBD care pathway: Patients with IBD identified the need of making the IBD care pathway more explicit to service users. Conclusions: Participants expressed the need for a more holistic approach to their IBD care. This includes integrating psychological, counselling and dietetic services into IBD care with better access to IBD clinicians and a more explicit IBD care pathway. Keywords: Inflammatory bowel disease, Co-designing, Qualitative study, Patient survey, Crohn’s disease, Ulcerative coliti

Pattern Recognition in a Bimodal Aquifer Using the Normal-Score Ensemble Kalman Filter

The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is now widely used in diverse disciplines to estimate model parameters and update model states by integrating observed data. The EnKF is known to perform optimally only for multi-Gaussian distributed states and parameters. A new approach, the normal-score EnKF (NS-EnKF), has been recently proposed to handle complex aquifers with non-Gaussian distributed parameters. In this work, we aim at investigating the capacity of the NS-EnKF to identify patterns in the spatial distribution of the model parameters (hydraulic conductivities) by assimilating dynamic observations in the absence of direct measurements of the parameters themselves. In some situations, hydraulic conductivity measurements (hard data) may not be available, which requires the estimation of conductivities from indirect observations, such as piezometric heads. We show how the NS-EnKF is capable of retrieving the bimodal nature of a synthetic aquifer solely from piezometric head data. By comparison with a more standard implementation of the EnKF, the NS-EnKF gives better results with regard to histogram preservation, uncertainty assessment, and transport predictions. © 2011 International Association for Mathematical Geosciences.The authors gratefully acknowledge the financial support by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation through project CGL2011-23295. The first author appreciates the financial aid from China Scholarship Council (CSC No. [2007]3020).Zhou, H.; Li, L.; Hendricks Franssen, H.; Gómez-Hernández, JJ. (2012). Pattern Recognition in a Bimodal Aquifer Using the Normal-Score Ensemble Kalman Filter. Mathematical Geosciences. 44(2):169-185. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11004-011-9372-3S169185442Arulampalam MS, Maskell S, Gordon N, Clapp T (2002) A tutorial on particle filters for online nonlinear/non-Gaussian Bayesian tracking. 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Systematic documentation and analysis of human genetic variation in hemoglobinopathies using the microattribution approach

We developed a series of interrelated locus-specific databases to store all published and unpublished genetic variation related to hemoglobinopathies and thalassemia and implemented microattribution to encourage submission of unpublished observations of genetic variation to these public repositories. A total of 1,941 unique genetic variants in 37 genes, encoding globins and other erythroid proteins, are currently documented in these databases, with reciprocal attribution of microcitations to data contributors. Our project provides the first example of implementing microattribution to incentivise submission of all known genetic variation in a defined system. It has demonstrably increased the reporting of human variants, leading to a comprehensive online resource for systematically describing human genetic variation in the globin genes and other genes contributing to hemoglobinopathies and thalassemias. The principles established here will serve as a model for other systems and for the analysis of other common and/or complex human genetic diseases

Ensemble-based multi-filter feature selection method for DDoS detection in cloud computing

Widespread adoption of cloud computing has increased the attractiveness of such services to cybercriminals. Distributed denial of service (DDoS) attacks targeting the cloud’s bandwidth, services and resources to render the cloud unavailable to both cloud providers, and users are a common form of attacks. In recent times, feature selection has been identified as a pre-processing phase in cloud DDoS attack defence which can potentially increase classification accuracy and reduce computational complexity by identifying important features from the original dataset during supervised learning. In this work, we propose an ensemble-based multi-filter feature selection method that combines the output of four filter methods to achieve an optimum selection. We then perform an extensive experimental evaluation of our proposed method using intrusion detection benchmark dataset, NSL-KDD and decision tree classifier. The findings show that our proposed method can effectively reduce the number of features from 41 to 13 and has a high detection rate and classification accuracy when compared to other classification techniques

A Bayesian Hierarchical Approach to Multivariate Nonstationary Hydrologic Frequency Analysis

We present a general Bayesian hierarchical framework for conducting nonstationary frequency analysis of multiple hydrologic variables. In this, annual maxima from each variable are assumed to follow a generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution in which the location parameter is allowed to vary in time. A Gaussian elliptical copula is used to model the joint distribution of all variables. We demonstrate the utility of this framework with a joint frequency analysis model of annual peak snow water equivalent (SWE), annual peak flow, and annual peak reservoir elevation at Taylor Park dam in Colorado, USA. Indices of largescale climate drivers—El Ni~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) are used as covariates to model temporal nonstationarity. The Bayesian framework provides the posterior distribution of the model parameters and consequently the return levels. Results show that performing a multivariate joint frequency analysis reduces the uncertainty in return level estimates and better captures multivariate dependence compared to an independent model

Factors for Improved Fish Passage Waterway Construction

Streambeds are important fish passageways in Oregon; they provide for the necessary habitats and spawning cycles of a healthy fish population. Oregon state law requires that hydraulic structures located in water properly provide fish passage. Increasingly stringent state and federal regulations apply to these fish passageways, and designers must become more cognizant of conditions over a range of flows to accommodate fish movement and avoid expensive structural failure of these passageways. Fish passage structures are built when roads cross streambeds and may include culverts, or bridges. When these structures are built, the streambeds are re-created using a technique called “roughened channels”. Roughened channels are man-made stream channels utilized for re-creating the hydraulics necessary for adequate stream passage, and this may include new constructions or retrofits of older, inadequate structures. Mixtures of materials are used to construct the bed of roughened channels, ranging from fines such as sand, silt and gravel to coarse elements like cobbles and boulders. Fines are a critical element in limiting permeability of the constructed bed thus keeping stream flow at the surface of the roughened channel during low flow periods. This report discusses work of a research project designed to discover factors that are key to successful long-term implementation of fish passageways, especially focused on the construction process. Areas of inquiry postulated in this study are that failures experienced in actual installations may be due to inadequate range and/or mix of soil and rock material gradation; unexpected water velocity, especially during high flows; inadequate mixing of rock and soil materials during construction; and inadequate compaction of rock and soil materials during construction. This report suggests that several factors may be especially important considerations in fish passage success. These factors are the relationship of downstream slope to structure slope, well-graded fine soil materials in the channel fill (improved by choice of fill source), and frequent site visits. Improving fish passages for cost-efficient fish movement is a priority for government agencies such as Oregon Department of Transportation (ODOT) and Oregon Transportation Research and Education Consortium (OTREC)

Time Varying Parameter Models for Catchments with Land Use Change: the Importance of Model Structure

Rapid population and economic growth in South-East-Asia has been accompanied by extensive land use change with consequent impacts on catchment hydrology. Modelling methodologies capable of handling changing land use conditions are therefore becoming ever more important, and are receiving increasing attention from hydrologists. A recently developed Data Assimilation based framework that allows model parameters to vary through time in response to signals of change in observations is considered for a medium sized catchment (2880 km²) in Northern Vietnam experiencing substantial but gradual land cover change. We investigate the efficacy of the method as well as the importance of the chosen model structure in ensuring the success of time varying parameter methods. The framework was utilized with two conceptual models (HBV and HyMOD) that gave good quality streamflow predictions during pre-change conditions. Although both time varying parameter models gave improved streamflow predictions under changed conditions compared to the time invariant parameter model, persistent biases for low flows were apparent in the HyMOD case. It was found that HyMOD was not suited to representing the modified baseflow conditions, resulting in extreme and unrealistic time varying parameter estimates. This work shows that the chosen model can be critical for ensuring the time varying parameter framework successfully models streamflow under changed land cover conditions. It also serves as an effective tool for separating the influence of climatic and land use change in retrospective studies where the lack of a paired control catchment precludes such an assessment