Micrometeoroid and Lunar Secondary Ejecta Flux Measurements: Comparison of Three Acoustic Systems

This report examines the inherent capability of three large-area acoustic sensor systems and their applicability for micrometeoroids (MM) and lunar secondary ejecta (SE) detection and characterization for future lunar exploration activities. Discussion is limited to instruments that can be fabricated and deployed with low resource requirements. Previously deployed impact detection probes typically have instrumented capture areas less than 0.2 square meters. Since the particle flux decreases rapidly with increased particle size, such small-area sensors rarely encounter particles in the size range above 50 microns, and even their sampling the population above 10 microns is typically limited. Characterizing the sparse dust population in the size range above 50 microns requires a very large-area capture instrument. However it is also important that such an instrument simultaneously measures the population of the smaller particles, so as to provide a complete instantaneous snapshot of the population. For lunar or planetary surface studies, the system constraints are significant. The instrument must be as large as possible to sample the population of the largest MM. This is needed to reliably assess the particle impact risks and to develop cost-effective shielding designs for habitats, astronauts, and critical instrument. The instrument should also have very high sensitivity to measure the flux of small and slow SE particles. is the SE environment is currently poorly characterized, and possess a contamination risk to machinery and personnel involved in exploration. Deployment also requires that the instrument add very little additional mass to the spacecraft. Three acoustic systems are being explored for this application

Characterization of space dust using acoustic impact detection

This paper describes studies leading to the development of an acoustic instrument for measuring properties of micrometeoroids and other dust particles in space. The instrument uses a pair of easily penetrated membranes separated by a known distance. Sensors located on these films detect the transient acoustic signals produced by particle impacts. The arrival times of these signals at the sensor locations are used in a simple multilateration calculation to measure the impact coordinates on each film. Particle direction and speed are found using these impact coordinates and the known membrane separations. This ability to determine particle speed, direction, and time of impact provides the information needed to assign the particle’s orbit and identify its likely origin. In many cases additional particle properties can be estimated from the signal amplitudes, including approximate diameter and (for small particles) some indication of composition/morphology. Two versions of this instrument were evaluated in this study. Fiber optic displacement sensors are found advantageous when very thin membranes can be maintained in tension (solar sails, lunar surface). Piezoelectric strain sensors are preferred for thicker films without tension (long duration free flyers). The latter was selected for an upcoming installation on the International Space Station

Characterization of cladded glass fibers using acoustic microscopy

Spatial distribution profiles of leaky surface acoustic wave velocity V(LSAW) and attenuation across the diameters of cladded glass fibers are presented. The profiles are obtained by using a novel V(x,z) analysis with a reflection scanning acoustic microscope operated at 775 MHz, and are compared with optical refractive index profiles. Optical fibers with different dopants and dopant concentrations have been investigated. The role of acoustic property profiles in the design of optical and acoustic fibers is outlined

Variables with time-varying effects and the Cox model: Some statistical concepts illustrated with a prognostic factor study in breast cancer

International audienceBACKGROUND: The Cox model relies on the proportional hazards (PH) assumption, implying that the factors investigated have a constant impact on the hazard - or risk - over time. We emphasize the importance of this assumption and the misleading conclusions that can be inferred if it is violated; this is particularly essential in the presence of long follow-ups. METHODS: We illustrate our discussion by analyzing prognostic factors of metastases in 979 women treated for breast cancer with surgery. Age, tumour size and grade, lymph node involvement, peritumoral vascular invasion (PVI), status of hormone receptors (HRec), Her2, and Mib1 were considered. RESULTS: Median follow-up was 14 years; 264 women developed metastases. The conventional Cox model suggested that all factors but HRec, Her2, and Mib1 status were strong prognostic factors of metastases. Additional tests indicated that the PH assumption was not satisfied for some variables of the model. Tumour grade had a significant time-varying effect, but although its effect diminished over time, it remained strong. Interestingly, while the conventional Cox model did not show any significant effect of the HRec status, tests provided strong evidence that this variable had a non-constant effect over time. Negative HRec status increased the risk of metastases early but became protective thereafter. This reversal of effect may explain non-significant hazard ratios provided by previous conventional Cox analyses in studies with long follow-ups. CONCLUSIONS: Investigating time-varying effects should be an integral part of Cox survival analyses. Detecting and accounting for time-varying effects provide insights on some specific time patterns, and on valuable biological information that could be missed otherwise

Modelling thirty-day mortality in the acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) in an adult ICU

Publisher's copy made available with the permission of the publisher © Australian Society of AnaesthetistsVariables predicting thirty-day outcome from Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS) were analysed using Cox regression structured for time-varying covariates. Over a three-year period, 1996-1998, consecutive patients with ARDS (bilateral chest X-ray opacities, PaO₂/FiO₂ ratio of <200 and an acute precipitating event) were identified using a prospective computerized data base in a university teaching hospital ICU. The cohort, 106 mechanically ventilated patients, was of mean (SD) age 63.5 (15.5) years and 37% were female. Primary lung injury occurred in 45% and 24% were postoperative. ICU-admission day APACHE II score was 25 (8); ARDS onset time from ICU admission was 1 day (median: range 0-16) and 30 day mortality was 41% (95% CI: 33%-51%). At ARDS onset, PaO₂/FiO₂ ratio was 92 (31), 81% had four-quadrant chest X-ray opacification and lung injury score was 2.75 (0.45). Average mechanical ventilator tidal volume was 10.3 ml/ predicted kg weight. Cox model mortality predictors (hazard ratio, 95% CI) were: APACHE II score, 1.15 (1.09-1.21); ARDS lag time (days), 0.72 (0.58-0.89); direct versus indirect injury, 2.89 (1.45-5.76); PaO₂/FiO₂ ratio, 0.98 (0.97-0.99); operative versus non-operative category, 0.24 (0.09-0.63). Time-varying effects were evident for PaO₂/FiO₂ ratio, operative versus non-operative category and ventilator tidal volume assessed as a categorical predictor with a cut-point of 8 ml/kg predicted weight (mean tidal volumes, 7.1 (1.9) vs 10.7 (1.6) ml/kg predicted weight). Thirty-day survival was improved for patients ventilated with lower tidal volumes. Survival predictors in ARDS were multifactorial and related to patient-injury-time interaction and level of mechanical ventilator tidal volume.J. L. Moran, P. J. Solomon, V. Fox, M. Salagaras, P. J. Williams, K. Quinlan, A. D. Berstenhttp://www.aaic.net.au/Article.asp?D=200332

Prescriptions for selective cyclooxygenase-2 inhibitors, non-selective non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, and risk of breast cancer in a population-based case-control study

INTRODUCTION. Non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) prevent the growth of mammary tumours in animal models. Two population-based case-control studies suggest a reduced risk of breast cancer associated with selective cyclooxygenase-2 (sCox-2) inhibitor use, but data regarding the association between breast cancer occurrence and use of non-selective NSAIDs are conflicting. METHODS. We conducted a population-based case-control study using Danish healthcare databases to examine if use of NSAIDs, including sCox-2 inhibitors, was associated with a reduced risk of breast cancer. We included 8,195 incident breast cancer cases diagnosed in 1991 through 2006 and 81,950 population controls. RESULTS. Overall, we found no reduced breast cancer risk in ever users (>2 prescriptions) of sCox-2 inhibitors (odds ratio (OR) = 1.08, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) = 0.99, 1.18), aspirin (OR = 0.98, 95% CI = 0.90-1.07), or non-selective NSAIDs OR = 1.04, (95% CI = 0.98, 1.10)). Recent use (>2 prescriptions within two years of index date) of sCox-2 inhibitors, aspirin, or non-selective NSAIDs was likewise not associated with breast cancer risk (Ors = 1.06 (95% CI = 0.96, 1.18), 0.96 (95% CI = 0.87, 1.06) and 0.99 (95% CI = 0.85, 1.16), respectively). Risk estimates by duration (<10, 10 to 15, 15+ years) or intensity (low/medium/high) of NSAID use were also close to unity. Regardless of intensity, shorter or long-term NSAID use was not significantly associated with breast cancer risk. CONCLUSIONS. Overall, we found no compelling evidence of a reduced risk of breast cancer associated with use of sCox-2 inhibitors, aspirin, or non-selective NSAIDs.Karen Elise Jensen Foundatio

Volunteer Bias in Recruitment, Retention, and Blood Sample Donation in a Randomised Controlled Trial Involving Mothers and Their Children at Six Months and Two Years: A Longitudinal Analysis

BACKGROUND: The vulnerability of clinical trials to volunteer bias is under-reported. Volunteer bias is systematic error due to differences between those who choose to participate in studies and those who do not. METHODS AND RESULTS: This paper extends the applications of the concept of volunteer bias by using data from a trial of probiotic supplementation for childhood atopy in healthy dyads to explore 1) differences between a) trial participants and aggregated data from publicly available databases b) participants and non-participants as the trial progressed 2) impact on trial findings of weighting data according to deprivation (Townsend) fifths in the sample and target populations. 1) a) Recruits (n = 454) were less deprived than the target population, matched for area of residence and delivery dates (n = 6,893) (mean [SD] deprivation scores 0.09[4.21] and 0.79[4.08], t = 3.44, df = 511, p<0.001). b) i) As the trial progressed, representation of the most deprived decreased. These participants and smokers were less likely to be retained at 6 months (n = 430[95%]) (OR 0.29,0.13-0.67 and 0.20,0.09-0.46), and 2 years (n = 380[84%]) (aOR 0.68,0.50-0.93 and 0.55,0.28-1.09), and consent to infant blood sample donation (n = 220[48%]) (aOR 0.72,0.57-0.92 and 0.43,0.22-0.83). ii) Mothers interested in probiotics or research or reporting infants' adverse events or rashes were more likely to attend research clinics and consent to skin-prick testing. Mothers participating to help children were more likely to consent to infant blood sample donation. 2) In one trial outcome, atopic eczema, the intervention had a positive effect only in the over-represented, least deprived group. Here, data weighting attenuated risk reduction from 6.9%(0.9-13.1%) to 4.6%(-1.4-+10.5%), and OR from 0.40(0.18-0.91) to 0.56(0.26-1.21). Other findings were unchanged. CONCLUSIONS: Potential for volunteer bias intensified during the trial, due to non-participation of the most deprived and smokers. However, these were not the only predictors of non-participation. Data weighting quantified volunteer bias and modified one important trial outcome. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This randomised, double blind, parallel group, placebo controlled trial is registered with the International Standard Randomised Controlled Trials Register, Number (ISRCTN) 26287422. Registered title: Probiotics in the prevention of atopy in infants and children

Pre-referral rectal artesunate in severe malaria: flawed trial

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Immediate injectable treatment is essential for severe malaria. Otherwise, the afflicted risk lifelong impairment or death. In rural areas of Africa and Asia, appropriate care is often miles away. In 2009, Melba Gomes and her colleagues published the findings of a randomized, placebo-controlled trial of rectal artesunate for suspected severe malaria in such remote areas. Enrolling nearly 18,000 cases, the aim was to evaluate whether, as patients were in transit to a health facility, a pre-referral artesunate suppository blocked disease progression sufficiently to reduce these risks. The affirmative findings of this, the only trial on the issue thus far, have led the WHO to endorse rectal artesunate as a pre-referral treatment for severe malaria. In the light of its public health importance and because its scientific quality has not been assessed for a systematic review, our paper provides a detailed evaluation of the design, conduct, analysis, reporting, and practical features of this trial.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We performed a checklist-based and an in-depth evaluation of the trial. The evaluation criteria were based on the CONSORT statement for reporting clinical trials, the clinical trial methodology literature, and practice in malaria research. Our main findings are: The inclusion and exclusion criteria and the sample size justification are not stated. Many clearly ineligible subjects were enrolled. The training of the recruiters does not appear to have been satisfactory. There was excessive between center heterogeneity in design and conduct. Outcome evaluation schedule was not defined, and in practice, became too wide. Large gaps in the collection of key data were evident. Primary endpoints were inconsistently utilized and reported; an overall analysis of the outcomes was not done; analyses of time to event data had major flaws; the stated intent-to-treat analysis excluded a third of the randomized subjects; the design-indicated stratified or multi-variate analysis was not done; many improper subgroups were analyzed in a post-hoc fashion; the analysis and reporting metric was deficient. There are concerns relating to patient welfare at some centers. Exclusion of many cases from data analysis compromised external validity. A bias-controlled reanalysis of available data does not lend support to the conclusions drawn by the authors.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>This trial has numerous serious deficiencies in design, implementation, and methods of data analysis. Interpretation and manner of reporting are wanting, and the applicability of the findings is unclear. The trial conduct could have been improved to better protect patient welfare. The totality of these problems make it a flawed study whose conclusions remain subject to appreciable doubt.</p

Timing Constraints of In Vivo Gag Mutations during Primary HIV-1 Subtype C Infection

Background: Aiming to answer the broad question “When does mutation occur?” this study examined the time of appearance, dominance, and completeness of in vivo Gag mutations in primary HIV-1 subtype C infection. Methods: A primary HIV-1C infection cohort comprised of 8 acutely and 34 recently infected subjects were followed frequently up to 500 days post-seroconversion (p/s). Gag mutations were analyzed by employing single-genome amplification and direct sequencing. Gag mutations were determined in relation to the estimated time of seroconversion. Time of appearance, dominance, and completeness was compared for different types of in vivo Gag mutations. Results: Reverse mutations to the wild type appeared at a median (IQR) of 62 (44;139) days p/s, while escape mutations from the wild type appeared at 234 (169;326) days p/s (p&lt;0.001). Within the subset of mutations that became dominant, reverse and escape mutations appeared at 54 (30;78) days p/s and 104 (47;198) days p/s, respectively (p&lt;0.001). Among the mutations that reached completeness, reverse and escape mutations appeared at 54 (30;78) days p/s and 90 (44;196) days p/s, respectively (p = 0.006). Time of dominance for reverse mutations to and escape mutations from the wild type was 58 (44;105) days p/s and 219 (90;326) days p/s, respectively (p&lt;0.001). Time of completeness for reverse and escape mutations was 152 (100;176) days p/s and 243 (101;370) days p/s, respectively (p = 0.001). Fitting a Cox proportional hazards model with frailties confirmed a significantly earlier time of appearance (hazard ratio (HR): 2.6; 95% CI: 2.3–3.0), dominance (4.8 (3.4–6.8)), and completeness (3.6 (2.3–5.5)) of reverse mutations to the wild type Gag than escape mutations from the wild type. Some complex mutational pathways in Gag included sequential series of reversions and escapes. Conclusions: The study identified the timing of different types of in vivo Gag mutations in primary HIV-1 subtype C infection in relation to the estimated time of seroconversion. Overall, the in vivo reverse mutations to the wild type occurred significantly earlier than escape mutations from the wild type. This shorter time to incidence of reverse mutations remained in the subsets of in vivo Gag mutations that reached dominance or completeness