On Model Selection, Bayesian Networks, and the Fisher Information Integral

We study BIC-like model selection criteria and in particular, their refinements that include a constant term involving the Fisher information matrix. We perform numerical simulations that enable increasingly accurate approximation of this constant in the case of Bayesian networks. We observe that for complex Bayesian network models, the constant term is a negative number with a very large absolute value that dominates the other terms for small and moderate sample sizes. For networks with a fixed number of parameters, d, the leading term in the complexity penalty, which is proportional to d, is the same. However, as we show, the constant term can vary significantly depending on the network structure even if the number of parameters is fixed. Based on our experiments, we conjecture that the distribution of the nodes’ outdegree is a key factor. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the constant term can have a dramatic effect on model selection performance for small sample sizes.Peer reviewe

Ion-induced sulfuric acid-ammonia nucleation drives particle formation in coastal Antarctica

Formation of new aerosol particles from trace gases is a major source of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) in the global atmosphere, with potentially large effects on cloud optical properties and Earth's radiative balance. Controlled laboratory experiments have resolved, in detail, the different nucleation pathways likely responsible for atmospheric new particle formation, yet very little is known from field studies about the molecular steps and compounds involved in different regions of the atmosphere. The scarcity of primary particle sources makes secondary aerosol formation particularly important in the Antarctic atmosphere. Here, we report on the observation of ion-induced nucleation of sulfuric acid and ammonia-a process experimentally investigated by the CERN CLOUD experiment-as a major source of secondary aerosol particles over coastal Antarctica. We further show that measured high sulfuric acid concentrations, exceeding 10(7) molecules cm(-3), are sufficient to explain the observed new particle growth rates. Our findings show that ion-induced nucleation is the dominant particle formation mechanism, implying that galactic cosmic radiation plays a key role in new particle formation in the pristine Antarctic atmosphere.Peer reviewe

Biogenic particles formed in the Himalaya as an important source of free tropospheric aerosols

Aerosols of biogenic and anthropogenic origin affect the total radiative forcing of global climate. Poor knowledge of the pre-industrial aerosol concentration and composition, in particular of particles formed directly in the atmosphere from gaseous precursors, constitutes a large uncertainty in the anthropogenic radiative forcing. Investigations of new particle formation at pre-industrial-like conditions can contribute to the reduction of this uncertainty. Here we present observations taken at the remote Nepal Climate Observatory Pyramid station at 5,079 m above sea level, a few kilometres from the summit of Everest. We show that up-valley winds funnel gaseous aerosol precursors to higher altitudes. During this transport, these are oxidized into compounds of very low volatility, which rapidly form a large number of aerosol particles. These are then transported into the free troposphere, which suggests that the whole Himalayan region may act as an 'aerosol factory' and contribute substantially to the free tropospheric aerosol population. Aerosol production in this region occurs mainly via organic precursors of biogenic origin with little evidence of the involvement of anthropogenic pollutants. This process is therefore likely to be essentially unchanged since the pre-industrial period, and may have been one of the major sources that contributes to the upper tropospheric aerosol population during that time. Newly formed biogenic particles in the Himalaya increase free-tropospheric background aerosol concentration by a factor of up to two.Peer reviewe

Atmospheric gaseous hydrochloric and hydrobromic acid in urban Beijing, China : detection, source identification and potential atmospheric impacts

Gaseous hydrochloric (HCl) and hydrobromic acid (HBr) are vital halogen species that play essential roles in tropospheric physicochemical processes. Yet, the majority of the current studies on these halogen species were conducted in marine or coastal areas. Detection and source identification of HCl and HBr in inland urban areas remain scarce, thus limiting the full understanding of halogen chemistry and potential atmospheric impacts in the environments with limited influence from the marine sources. Here, both gaseous HCl and HBr were concurrently measured in urban Beijing, China, during winter and early spring of 2019. We observed significant HCl and HBr concentrations ranging from a minimum value at 1 x 10(8) molecules cm(-3) (4 ppt) and 4 x 10(7) molecules cm 3 (1 ppt) up to 6 x 10(9) molecules cm(-3) (222 ppt) and 1 x 10(9) molecules cm(-3) (37 ppt), respectively. The HCl and HBr concentrations are enhanced along with the increase of atmospheric temperature, UVB and levels of gaseous HNO3. Based on the air mass analysis and high correlations of HCl and HBr with the burning indicators (HCN and HCNO), gaseous HCl and HBr are found to be related to anthropogenic burning aerosols. The gas-particle partitioning may also play a dominant role in the elevated daytime HCl and HBr. During the daytime, the reactions of HCl and HBr with OH radicals lead to significant production of atomic Cl and Br, up to 2 x 10(4) molecules cm(-3) s(-1) and 8 x 10(4) molecules cm(-3) s(-1), respectively. The production rate of atomic Br (via HBr + OH) is 2-3 times higher than that of atomic Cl (via HCl + OH), highlighting the potential importance of bromine chemistry in the urban area. On polluted days, the production rates of atomic Cl and Br are faster than those on clean days. Furthermore, our observations of elevated HCl and HBr may suggest an important recycling pathway of halogen species in inland megacities and may provide a plausible explanation for the widespread halogen chemistry, which could affect the atmospheric oxidation in China.Peer reviewe

Effects of typical and atypical antipsychotic drugs on gene expression profiles in the liver of schizophrenia subjects

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Although much progress has been made on antipsychotic drug development, precise mechanisms behind the action of typical and atypical antipsychotics are poorly understood.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We performed genome-wide expression profiling to study effects of typical antipsychotics and atypical antipsychotics in the postmortem liver of schizophrenia patients using microarrays (Affymetrix U133 plus2.0). We classified the subjects into typical antipsychotics (n = 24) or atypical antipsychotics (n = 26) based on their medication history, and compared gene expression profiles with unaffected controls (n = 34). We further analyzed individual antipsychotic effects on gene expression by sub-classifying the subjects into four major antipsychotic groups including haloperidol, phenothiazines, olanzapine and risperidone.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Typical antipsychotics affected genes associated with nuclear protein, stress responses and phosphorylation, whereas atypical antipsychotics affected genes associated with golgi/endoplasmic reticulum and cytoplasm transport. Comparison between typical antipsychotics and atypical antipsychotics further identified genes associated with lipid metabolism and mitochondrial function. Analyses on individual antipsychotics revealed a set of genes (151 transcripts, FDR adjusted p < 0.05) that are differentially regulated by four antipsychotics, particularly by phenothiazines, in the liver of schizophrenia patients.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Typical antipsychotics and atypical antipsychotics affect different genes and biological function in the liver. Typical antipsychotic phenothiazines exert robust effects on gene expression in the liver that may lead to liver toxicity. The genes found in the current study may benefit antipsychotic drug development with better therapeutic and side effect profiles.</p

Rapid growth of new atmospheric particles by nitric acid and ammonia condensation

New-particle formation is a major contributor to urban smog$^{1,2}$, but how it occurs in cities is often puzzling$^{3}$. If the growth rates of urban particles are similar to those found in cleaner environments (1–10 nanometres per hour), then existing understanding suggests that new urban particles should be rapidly scavenged by the high concentration of pre-existing particles. Here we show, through experiments performed under atmospheric conditions in the CLOUD chamber at CERN, that below about +5 degrees Celsius, nitric acid and ammonia vapours can condense onto freshly nucleated particles as small as a few nanometres in diameter. Moreover, when it is cold enough (below −15 degrees Celsius), nitric acid and ammonia can nucleate directly through an acid–base stabilization mechanism to form ammonium nitrate particles. Given that these vapours are often one thousand times more abundant than sulfuric acid, the resulting particle growth rates can be extremely high, reaching well above 100 nanometres per hour. However, these high growth rates require the gas-particle ammonium nitrate system to be out of equilibrium in order to sustain gas-phase supersaturations. In view of the strong temperature dependence that we measure for the gas-phase supersaturations, we expect such transient conditions to occur in inhomogeneous urban settings, especially in wintertime, driven by vertical mixing and by strong local sources such as traffic. Even though rapid growth from nitric acid and ammonia condensation may last for only a few minutes, it is nonetheless fast enough to shepherd freshly nucleated particles through the smallest size range where they are most vulnerable to scavenging loss, thus greatly increasing their survival probability. We also expect nitric acid and ammonia nucleation and rapid growth to be important in the relatively clean and cold upper free troposphere, where ammonia can be convected from the continental boundary layer and nitric acid is abundant from electrical storms$^{4,5}$