Working too much in a polluted world: A North-South evolutionary model

This paper examines a simple North-South growth model where negative externalities may contribute to reinforce economic growth. Agents' welfare depends on three goods in the model: leisure, a common access renewable natural resource (one in each hemisphere) and a non-storable consumption good. Production and consumption of the latter good deplete the renewable natural resource. To protect against such environmental deterioration, agents may increase their labor supply in order to produce an additional amount of the consumption good to be used as a substitute for the depleted natural resource. The consequent growth in production and consumption may generate a further depletion of the natural resource. This may lead to a self-enforcing growth process in a polluted world where individuals work and produce "too much" (i.e. more than socially optimal). We examine the choices of the two hemispheres using a two-population evolutionary game with transboundary pollution across hemispheres. Each agent chooses whether to work low or high. If an agent works low, she can consume the good only to satisfy basic needs (subsistence consumption). If the agent works high, she can consume an additional amount of the good as a substitute for the natural resource (substitution consumption). We assume that people who work high in the North can also have access to the Southern natural resource (e.g. they can afford a holiday in some developing country where natural resources are still relatively unpolluted), whereas the opposite is not true. We show that economic growth in the North and/or in the South may lead to stationary states that are Pareto dominated by states of the world with a lower level of production and consumption. Moreover, negative environmental externalities from the North to the South may foster growth in the South, which may have in turn feedback effects on growth in the North. Finally, we discuss possible welfare effects of transferring the environmental impact of Northern production to the South and show that such a policy may decrease welfare in both hemispheres

Preventing type 2 diabetes mellitus in Qatar by reducing obesity, smoking, and physical inactivity: mathematical modeling analyses.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to estimate the impact of reducing the prevalence of obesity, smoking, and physical inactivity, and introducing physical activity as an explicit intervention, on the burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), using Qatar as an example. METHODS: A population-level mathematical model was adapted and expanded. The model was stratified by sex, age group, risk factor status, T2DM status, and intervention status, and parameterized by nationally representative data. Modeled interventions were introduced in 2016, reached targeted level by 2031, and then maintained up to 2050. Diverse intervention scenarios were assessed and compared with a counter-factual no intervention baseline scenario. RESULTS: T2DM prevalence increased from 16.7% in 2016 to 24.0% in 2050 in the baseline scenario. By 2050, through halting the rise or reducing obesity prevalence by 10-50%, T2DM prevalence was reduced by 7.8-33.7%, incidence by 8.4-38.9%, and related deaths by 2.1-13.2%. For smoking, through halting the rise or reducing smoking prevalence by 10-50%, T2DM prevalence was reduced by 0.5-2.8%, incidence by 0.5-3.2%, and related deaths by 0.1-0.7%. For physical inactivity, through halting the rise or reducing physical inactivity prevalence by 10-50%, T2DM prevalence was reduced by 0.5-6.9%, incidence by 0.5-7.9%, and related deaths by 0.2-2.8%. Introduction of physical activity with varying intensity at 25% coverage reduced T2DM prevalence by 3.3-9.2%, incidence by 4.2-11.5%, and related deaths by 1.9-5.2%. CONCLUSIONS: Major reductions in T2DM incidence could be accomplished by reducing obesity, while modest reductions could be accomplished by reducing smoking and physical inactivity, or by introducing physical activity as an intervention

Exploring residual risk for diabetes and microvascular disease in the Diabetes Prevention Program Outcomes Study (DPPOS)

Aim Approximately half of the participants in the Diabetes Prevention Outcomes Study (DPPOS) had diabetes after 15 years of follow-up, whereas nearly all the others remained with pre-diabetes. We examined whether formerly unexplored factors in the DPPOS coexisted with known risk factors that posed additional risk for, or protection from, diabetes as well as microvascular disease. Methods Cox proportional hazard models were used to examine predictors of diabetes. Sequential modelling procedures considered known and formerly unexplored factors. We also constructed models to determine whether the same unexplored factors that associated with progression to diabetes also predicted the prevalence of microvascular disease. Hazard ratios (HR) are per standard deviation change in the variable. Results In models adjusted for demographics and known diabetes risk factors, two formerly unknown factors were associated with risk for both diabetes and microvascular disease: number of medications taken (HR = 1.07, 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) 1.03 to 1.12 for diabetes; odds ratio (OR) = 1.10, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.16 for microvascular disease) and variability in HbA1c (HR = 1.02, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.03 for diabetes; OR = 1.06, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.09 for microvascular disease per sd). Total comorbidities increased risk for diabetes (HR = 1.10, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.16), whereas higher systolic (OR = 1.22, 95% CI 1.13 to 1.31) and diastolic (OR = 1.14, 95% CI 1.05 to 1.22) blood pressure, as well as the use of anti-hypertensives (OR = 1.41, 95% CI 1.23 to 1.62), increased risk of microvascular disease. Conclusions Several formerly unexplored factors in the DPPOS predicted additional risk for diabetes and/or microvascular disease – particularly hypertension and the use of anti-hypertensive medications – helping to explain some of the residual disease risk in participants of the DPPOS

Gestational weight gain and group prenatal care: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Abstract Background Group visits for chronic medical conditions in non-pregnant populations have demonstrated successful outcomes including greater weight loss compared to individual visits for weight management. It is plausible that group prenatal care can similarly assist women in meeting gestational weight gain goals. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of group vs. traditional prenatal care on gestational weight gain. Methods A keyword search of Medline, Embase, Scopus, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, clinicaltrials.gov, and Google Scholar was performed up to April 2017. Studies were included if they compared gestational weight gain in a group prenatal care setting to traditional prenatal care in either randomized controlled trials, cohort, or case-control studies. The primary and secondary outcomes were excessive and adequate gestational weight gain according to the Institute of Medicine guidelines. Heterogeneity was assessed with the Q test and I2 statistic. Pooled relative risks (RRs) and confidence intervals (CI) were reported with random-effects models from the randomized controlled trials (RCT) and cohort studies. Results One RCT, one secondary analysis of an RCT, one study with “random assignment”, and twelve cohort studies met the inclusion criteria for a total of 13,779 subjects. Thirteen studies used the CenteringPregnancy model, defined by 10 sessions that emphasize goal setting and self-monitoring. Studies targeted specific populations such as adolescents, African-Americans, Hispanics, active-duty military or their spouses, and women with obesity or gestational diabetes. There were no significant differences in excessive [7 studies: pooled rates 47% (1806/3582) vs. 43% (3839/8521), RR 1.09, 95% CI 0.97–1.23] or adequate gestational weight gain [6 studies: pooled rates 31% (798/2875) vs. 30% (1410/5187), RR 0.92, 95% CI 0.79–1.08] in group and traditional prenatal care among the nine studies that reported categorical gestational weight gain outcomes in the meta-analysis. Conclusions Group prenatal care was not associated with excessive or adequate gestational weight gain in the meta-analysis. Since outcomes were overall inconsistent, we propose that prenatal care models (e.g., group vs. traditional) should be evaluated in a more rigorous fashion with respect to gestational weight gain

Enhanced physical health screening for people with severe mental illness in Hong Kong: results from a one-year prospective case series study

Background People with severe mental illness have significantly poorer physical health compared to the general population; previous health screening studies conducted outside Asian countries have demonstrated the potential in addressing this issue. This case series aimed to explore the effects and utility of integrating an enhanced physical health screening programme for community dwelling patients with severe mental illness into routine clinical practice in Hong Kong. Method This study utilises a consecutive prospective case series design. The serious mental illness Health Improvement Profile (HIP) was used as a screening tool at baseline and repeated at 12 months follow-up. Results A total of 148 community-based patients with severe mental illness completed the study. At one year follow-up analysis showed a significant improvement in self-reported levels of exercise and a reduction in the numbers of patients prescribed medications for diabetes However, mean waist circumference increased at follow-up. In addition to the statistically significant results some general trends were observed, including: a lack of deterioration in most areas of cardiovascular risk; a reduction in medicines prescribed for physical health problems; and general improvements in health behaviours over the 12 month period. Conclusions The findings demonstrate that using the HIP is feasible and acceptable in Hong Kong. The results of the enhanced physical health-screening programme are promising, but require further testing using a randomised controlled trial design in order to more confidently attribute the improvements in well-being and health behaviours to the HIP. Trial registration Clinical trial registration number: ISRCTN1258247

Impact of Hormone Replacement Therapy on Exercise Training-Induced Improvements in Insulin Action in Sedentary Overweight Adults

Exercise training (ET) and hormone replacement therapy (HRT) are both recognized influences on insulin action, but the influence of HRT on responses to ET has not been examined. In order to determine if HRT use provided additive benefits for the response of insulin action to ET, we evaluated the impact of HRT use on changes in insulin during the course of a randomized, controlled, aerobic ET intervention. Subjects at baseline were sedentary, dyslipidemic, and overweight. These individuals were randomized to six months of one of three aerobic ET interventions or continued physical inactivity. In 206 subjects, an insulin sensitivity index (SI) was obtained with a frequently sampled intravenous glucose tolerance test pre- and post-ET. Baseline and post-intervention fitness, regional adiposity, general adiposity, skeletal muscle biochemistry and histology, and serum lipoproteins were measured as other putative mediators influencing insulin action. Two-way analyses of variance were used to determine if gender or HRT use influenced responses to exercise training. Linear modeling was used to determine if predictors for response in SI differed by gender or HRT use. Women who used HRT (HRT+) demonstrated significantly greater improvements in SI with ET than women not using HRT (HRT-). In those HRT+ women, plasma triglyceride change best correlated with change in SI. For HRT- women, capillary density change, and for men, subcutaneous adiposity change, best correlated with change in SI. In summary, in an ET intervention, HRT use appears associated with more robust responses in insulin action. Also, relationships between ET induced changes in insulin action and potential mediators of change in insulin action are different for men, and for women on or off HRT. These findings have implications for the relative utility of ET for improving insulin action in middle-aged men and women, particularly in the setting of differences in HRT use. Address Originally published Metabolism, Vol. 57, No. 7, July 200

The prevention of type 2 diabetes

Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) affects more than 7% of adults in the US and leads to substantial personal and economic burden. In prediabetic states insulin secretion and action—potential targets of preventive interventions—are impaired. In trials lifestyle modification (i.e. weight loss and exercise) has proven effective in preventing incident T2DM in high-risk groups, although weight loss has the greatest effect. Various medications (e.g. metformin, thiazolidinediones and acarbose) can also prevent or delay T2DM. Whether diabetes-prevention strategies also ultimately prevent the development of diabetic vascular complications is unknown, but cardiovascular risk factors are favorably affected. Preventive strategies that can be implemented in routine clinical settings have been developed and evaluated. Widespread application has, however, been limited by local financial considerations, even though cost-effectiveness might be achieved at the population level

Technological Change in Economic Models of Environmental Policy: A Survey

This paper provides an overview of the treatment of technological change in economic models of environmental policy. Numerous economic modeling studies have confirmed the sensitivity of mid- and long-run climate change mitigation cost and benefit projections to assumptions about technology costs. In general, technical progress is considered to be a noneconomic, exogenous variable in global climate change modeling. However, there is overwhelming evidence that technological change is not an exogenous variable but to an important degree endogenous, induced by needs and pressures. Hence, some environmenteconomy models treat technological change as endogenous, responding to socio-economic variables. Three main elements in models of technological innovation are: (i) corporate investment in research and development, (ii) spillovers from R&D, and (iii) technology learning, especially learning-by-doing. The incorporation of induced technological change in different types of environmental-economic models tends to reduce the costs of environmental policy, accelerates abatement and may lead to positive spillover and negative leakage

A randomized controlled trial of metformin on left ventricular hypertrophy in patients with coronary artery disease without diabetes:the MET-REMODEL trial

Aim We tested the hypothesis that metformin may regress left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) in patients who have coronary artery disease (CAD), with insulin resistance (IR) and/or pre-diabetes. Methods and results We randomly assigned 68 patients (mean age 65 ± 8 years) without diabetes who have CAD with IR and/or pre-diabetes to receive either metformin XL (2000 mg daily dose) or placebo for 12 months. Primary endpoint was change in left ventricular mass indexed to height1.7 (LVMI), assessed by magnetic resonance imaging. In the modified intention-to-treat analysis (n = 63), metformin treatment significantly reduced LVMI compared with placebo group (absolute mean difference −1.37 (95% confidence interval: −2.63 to −0.12, P = 0.033). Metformin also significantly reduced other secondary study endpoints such as: LVM (P = 0.032), body weight (P = 0.001), subcutaneous adipose tissue (P = 0.024), office systolic blood pressure (BP, P = 0.022) and concentration of thiobarbituric acid reactive substances, a biomarker for oxidative stress (P = 0.04). The glycated haemoglobin A1C concentration and fasting IR index did not differ between study groups at the end of the study. Conclusion Metformin treatment significantly reduced LVMI, LVM, office systolic BP, body weight, and oxidative stress. Although LVH is a good surrogate marker of cardiovascular (CV) outcome, conclusive evidence for the cardio-protective role of metformin is required from large CV outcomes trials

Cluster randomised controlled trial of a peer-led lifestyle intervention program: study protocol for the Kerala diabetes prevention program.

BACKGROUND: India currently has more than 60 million people with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM) and this is predicted to increase by nearly two-thirds by 2030. While management of those with T2DM is important, preventing or delaying the onset of the disease, especially in those individuals at 'high risk' of developing T2DM, is urgently needed, particularly in resource-constrained settings. This paper describes the protocol for a cluster randomised controlled trial of a peer-led lifestyle intervention program to prevent diabetes in Kerala, India. METHODS/DESIGN: A total of 60 polling booths are randomised to the intervention arm or control arm in rural Kerala, India. Data collection is conducted in two steps. Step 1 (Home screening): Participants aged 30-60 years are administered a screening questionnaire. Those having no history of T2DM and other chronic illnesses with an Indian Diabetes Risk Score value of ≥60 are invited to attend a mobile clinic (Step 2). At the mobile clinic, participants complete questionnaires, undergo physical measurements, and provide blood samples for biochemical analysis. Participants identified with T2DM at Step 2 are excluded from further study participation. Participants in the control arm are provided with a health education booklet containing information on symptoms, complications, and risk factors of T2DM with the recommended levels for primary prevention. Participants in the intervention arm receive: (1) eleven peer-led small group sessions to motivate, guide and support in planning, initiation and maintenance of lifestyle changes; (2) two diabetes prevention education sessions led by experts to raise awareness on T2DM risk factors, prevention and management; (3) a participant handbook containing information primarily on peer support and its role in assisting with lifestyle modification; (4) a participant workbook to guide self-monitoring of lifestyle behaviours, goal setting and goal review; (5) the health education booklet that is given to the control arm. Follow-up assessments are conducted at 12 and 24 months. The primary outcome is incidence of T2DM. Secondary outcomes include behavioural, psychosocial, clinical, and biochemical measures. An economic evaluation is planned. DISCUSSION: Results from this trial will contribute to improved policy and practice regarding lifestyle intervention programs to prevent diabetes in India and other resource-constrained settings. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Australia and New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry: ACTRN12611000262909