U.S. GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAM CLIMATE SCIENCE SPECIAL REPORT (CSSR)

Fifth-Order Draft Table of Contents Front Matter About This Report........................................................................................ 1 Guide to the Report......................................................................................4 Executive Summary ................................................................................... 12 Chapters 1. Our Globally Changing Climate .......................................................... 38 2. Physical Drivers of Climate Change ................................................... 98 3. Detection and Attribution of Climate Change .................................... 160 4. Climate Models, Scenarios, and Projections .................................... 186 5. Large-Scale Circulation and Climate Variability ................................ 228 6. Temperature Changes in the United States ...................................... 267 7. Precipitation Change in the United States ......................................... 301 8. Droughts, Floods, and Hydrology ......................................................... 336 9. Extreme Storms ....................................................................................... 375 10. Changes in Land Cover and Terrestrial Biogeochemistry ............ 405 11. Arctic Changes and their Effects on Alaska and the Rest of the United States..... 443 12. Sea Level Rise ....................................................................................... 493 13. Ocean Acidification and Other Ocean Changes .............................. 540 14. Perspectives on Climate Change Mitigation .................................... 584 15. Potential Surprises: Compound Extremes and Tipping Elements .......... 608 Appendices A. Observational Datasets Used in Climate Studies ............................. 636 B. Weighting Strategy for the Fourth National Climate Assessment ................ 642 C. Detection and Attribution Methodologies Overview ............................ 652 D. Acronyms and Units ................................................................................. 664 E. Glossary ...................................................................................................... 66

U.S. GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAM CLIMATE SCIENCE SPECIAL REPORT (CSSR)

Fifth-Order Draft Table of Contents Front Matter About This Report........................................................................................ 1 Guide to the Report......................................................................................4 Executive Summary ................................................................................... 12 Chapters 1. Our Globally Changing Climate .......................................................... 38 2. Physical Drivers of Climate Change ................................................... 98 3. Detection and Attribution of Climate Change .................................... 160 4. Climate Models, Scenarios, and Projections .................................... 186 5. Large-Scale Circulation and Climate Variability ................................ 228 6. Temperature Changes in the United States ...................................... 267 7. Precipitation Change in the United States ......................................... 301 8. Droughts, Floods, and Hydrology ......................................................... 336 9. Extreme Storms ....................................................................................... 375 10. Changes in Land Cover and Terrestrial Biogeochemistry ............ 405 11. Arctic Changes and their Effects on Alaska and the Rest of the United States..... 443 12. Sea Level Rise ....................................................................................... 493 13. Ocean Acidification and Other Ocean Changes .............................. 540 14. Perspectives on Climate Change Mitigation .................................... 584 15. Potential Surprises: Compound Extremes and Tipping Elements .......... 608 Appendices A. Observational Datasets Used in Climate Studies ............................. 636 B. Weighting Strategy for the Fourth National Climate Assessment ................ 642 C. Detection and Attribution Methodologies Overview ............................ 652 D. Acronyms and Units ................................................................................. 664 E. Glossary ...................................................................................................... 66

Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation: Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

This Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX) has been jointly coordinated by Working Groups I (WGI) and II (WGII) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The report focuses on the relationship between climate change and extreme weather and climate events, the impacts of such events, and the strategies to manage the associated risks. The IPCC was jointly established in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), in particular to assess in a comprehensive, objective, and transparent manner all the relevant scientific, technical, and socioeconomic information to contribute in understanding the scientific basis of risk of human-induced climate change, the potential impacts, and the adaptation and mitigation options. Beginning in 1990, the IPCC has produced a series of Assessment Reports, Special Reports, Technical Papers, methodologies, and other key documents which have since become the standard references for policymakers and scientists.This Special Report, in particular, contributes to frame the challenge of dealing with extreme weather and climate events as an issue in decisionmaking under uncertainty, analyzing response in the context of risk management. The report consists of nine chapters, covering risk management; observed and projected changes in extreme weather and climate events; exposure and vulnerability to as well as losses resulting from such events; adaptation options from the local to the international scale; the role of sustainable development in modulating risks; and insights from specific case studies

The Growth and Decay of the Late Weichselian Ice Sheet in Western Svalbard and Adjacent Areas Based on Provenance Studies of Marine Sediments

The history of the Late Weichselian northwestern Barents Shelf, including western Svalbard, has been investigated by provenance/sedimentologist studies of five cores from the continental shelf and slope west of Svalbard. The chronostratigraphy of the cores is based on AMS 14C dates and oxygen isotope analyses. Interpretations of the cores suggest that the ice sheets of western Svalbard and northwestern Barents Sea experienced advances and retreats in two steps. The first significant ice advance beyond the present coastline occurred ca. 22,000 14C yr B.P. and was followed by an ice advance to the shelf edge ca. 18,000 14C yr B.P. Ice recession from the outer shelf and the southwestern Barents Sea began 14,800 14C yr B.P. and was followed by a second ice recession between 13,000 and 12,000 14 C yr B.P. during which ice withdrew from the inner shelf. A minor readvance of the ice sheet on the shelf west of Svalbard occurred close to 12,400 14C yr B.P. The first deglaciation event was associated with release of icebergs containing ice-rafted detritus, while the later episode also included significant amounts of meltwater and fine-grained sediment

Canadian Arctic sea ice reconstructed from bromine in the Greenland NEEM ice core

Reconstructing the past variability of Arctic sea ice provides an essential context for recent multi-year sea ice decline, although few quantitative reconstructions cover the Holocene period prior to the earliest historical records 1,200 years ago. Photochemical recycling of bromine is observed over first-year, or seasonal, sea ice in so-called "bromine explosions" and we employ a 1-D chemistry transport model to quantify processes of bromine enrichment over first-year sea ice and depositional transport over multi-year sea ice and land ice. We report bromine enrichment in the Northwest Greenland Eemian NEEM ice core since the end of the Eemian interglacial 120,000 years ago, finding the maximum extension of first-year sea ice occurred approximately 9,000 years ago during the Holocene climate optimum, when Greenland temperatures were 2 to 3 degrees C above present values. First-year sea ice extent was lowest during the glacial stadials suggesting complete coverage of the Arctic Ocean by multi-year sea ice. These findings demonstrate a clear relationship between temperature and first-year sea ice extent in the Arctic and suggest multi-year sea ice will continue to decline as polar amplification drives Arctic temperatures beyond the 2 degrees C global average warming target of the recent COP21 Paris climate agreement

Southwest Atlantic water mass evolution during the last deglaciation

The rise in atmospheric CO2 during Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1; 14.5–17.5 kyr B.P.) may have been driven by the release of carbon from the abyssal ocean. Model simulations suggest that wind‐driven upwelling in the Southern Ocean can liberate 13C‐depleted carbon from the abyss, causing atmospheric CO2 to increase and the δ13C of CO2 to decrease. One prediction of the Southern Ocean hypothesis is that water mass tracers in the deep South Atlantic should register a circulation response early in the deglaciation. Here we test this idea using a depth transect of 12 cores from the Brazil Margin. We show that records below 2300 m remained 13C‐depleted until 15 kyr B.P. or later, indicating that the abyssal South Atlantic was an unlikely source of light carbon to the atmosphere during HS1. Benthic δ18O results are consistent with abyssal South Atlantic isolation until 15 kyr B.P., in contrast to shallower sites. The depth dependent timing of the δ18O signal suggests that correcting δ18O for ice volume is problematic on glacial terminations. New data from 2700 to 3000 m show that the deep SW Atlantic was isotopically distinct from the abyss during HS1. As a result, we find that mid‐depth δ13C minima were most likely driven by an abrupt drop in δ13C of northern component water. Low δ13C at the Brazil Margin also coincided with an ~80‰ decrease in Δ14C. Our results are consistent with a weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and point toward a northern hemisphere trigger for the initial rise in atmospheric CO2 during HS1.Key PointsDeep SW Atlantic was unlikely source of light carbon to atmosphere during HS1Mid‐depth isotopic anomalies due to change in northern component waterNorthern component water had robust influence in South Atlantic during HS1Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/111970/1/palo20190.pd

How parents choose to use CAM: a systematic review of theoretical models

Background: Complementary and Alternative Medicine (CAM) is widely used throughout the UK and the Western world. CAM is commonly used for children and the decision-making process to use CAM is affected by numerous factors. Most research on CAM use lacks a theoretical framework and is largely based on bivariate statistics. The aim of this review was to identify a conceptual model which could be used to explain the decision-making process in parental choice of CAM. Methods: A systematic search of the literature was carried out. A two-stage selection process with predetermined inclusion/exclusion criteria identified studies using a theoretical framework depicting the interaction of psychological factors involved in the CAM decision process. Papers were critically appraised and findings summarised. Results: Twenty two studies using a theoretical model to predict CAM use were included in the final review; only one examined child use. Seven different models were identified. The most commonly used and successful model was Andersen's Sociobehavioural Model (SBM). Two papers proposed modifications to the SBM for CAM use. Six qualitative studies developed their own model. Conclusion: The SBM modified for CAM use, which incorporates both psychological and pragmatic determinants, was identified as the best conceptual model of CAM use. This model provides a valuable framework for future research, and could be used to explain child CAM use. An understanding of the decision making process is crucial in promoting shared decision making between healthcare practitioners and parents and could inform service delivery, guidance and policy