Analytical solutions for distributed multipolar vortex equilibria on a sphere

Published versio

Evaluation of ECMWF medium-range ensemble forecasts of precipitation for river basins

Providing probabilistic forecasts using Ensemble Prediction Systems has become increasingly popular in both the meteorological and hydrological communities. Compared to conventional deterministic forecasts, probabilistic forecasts may provide more reliable forecasts of a few hours to a number of days ahead, and hence are regarded as better tools for taking uncertainties into consideration and hedging against weather risks. It is essential to evaluate performance of raw ensemble forecasts and their potential values in forecasting extreme hydro-meteorological events. This study evaluates ECMWF's medium-range ensemble forecasts of precipitation over the period 1 January 2008 to 30 September 2012 on a selected midlatitude large-scale river basin, the Huai river basin (ca. 270 000 km2) in central-east China. The evaluation unit is sub-basin in order to consider forecast performance in a hydrologically relevant way. The study finds that forecast performance varies with sub-basin properties, between flooding and non-flooding seasons, and with the forecast properties of aggregated time steps and lead times. Although the study does not evaluate any hydrological applications of the ensemble precipitation forecasts, its results have direct implications in hydrological forecasts should these ensemble precipitation forecasts be employed in hydrology

Renewable energy in remote communities

This article is the result of a competitively tendered University-funded project, this brings together two major Government Policy areas: sustainable communities and use of carbon fuels, and is aimed at influencing the policy debate on the difficulties of linking remote communities to renewable energy production because of poor distribution networks. Linkage with the Sustainable Communities agenda is an essential ingredient, as the proposal is that the renewable energy technologies will be installed and maintained by the communities themselves

Stability analysis of a class of two-dimensional multipolar vortex equilibria

Published versio

‘I will not be thrown out of the country because I’m an immigrant’: Eastern European migrants’ responses to hate crime in a semi-rural context in the wake of Brexit

This article examines Eastern European migrants’ experiences of and responses to hate crime. Following the UK European Union Membership Referendum (‘Brexit’ vote), there was an increase in reported hate crimes against immigrants. The study focuses on the experiences of migrants in Lincolnshire, a region of England which has a significant migrant population, and which had one of the highest ‘leave’ votes. The focus on white migrants in this semi-rural setting offers an original perspective in the field of hate crime studies. We draw on semi-structured interviews and observations to identify temporal, spatial, and relational factors in responses to hate crime. We uncover the insecure occupation of a ‘third space’ constituted by material, discursive, and emotional practices. This positioning was destabilised post referendum; but there was also evidence of the operation of agency within processes of ‘othering’, suggesting a transition from victim identity to emergent political subject

More than sense of place? Exploring the emotional dimension of rural tourism experiences

It is widely suggested that participation in rural tourism is underpinned by a sense of rural place or “rurality”. However, although nature and the countryside have long been recognised as a source of spiritual or emotional fulfilment, few have explored the extent to which tourism, itself often claimed to be a sacred experience, offers an emotional/spiritual dimension in the rural context. This paper addresses that literature gap. Using in-depth interviews with rural tourists in the English Lake District, it explores the extent to which, within respondents’ individual understanding of spirituality, a relationship exists between sense of place and deeper, emotional experiences and, especially, whether participation in rural tourism may induce spiritual or emotional responses. The research revealed that all respondents felt a strong attachment to the Lake District; similarly, and irrespective of their openness to spirituality, engaging in rural tourism activities resulted in highly emotive experiences for all respondents, the description/interpretation of such experiences being determined by individual “beliefs”. However, sense of place was not a prerequisite to emotional or spiritual experiences. Being in and engaging with the landscape � effectively becoming part of it � especially through physical activity is fundamental to emotional responses

Continental and global scale flood forecasting systems

Floods are the most frequent of natural disasters, affecting millions of people across the globe every year. The anticipation and forecasting of floods at the global scale is crucial to preparing for severe events and providing early awareness where local flood models and warning services may not exist. As numerical weather prediction models continue to improve, operational centres are increasingly using the meteorological output from these to drive hydrological models, creating hydrometeorological systems capable of forecasting river flow and flood events at much longer lead times than has previously been possible. Furthermore, developments in, for example, modelling capabilities, data and resources in recent years have made it possible to produce global scale flood forecasting systems. In this paper, the current state of operational large scale flood forecasting is discussed, including probabilistic forecasting of floods using ensemble prediction systems. Six state-of-the-art operational large scale flood forecasting systems are reviewed, describing similarities and differences in their approaches to forecasting floods at the global and continental scale. Currently, operational systems have the capability to produce coarse-scale discharge forecasts in the medium-range and disseminate forecasts and, in some cases, early warning products, in real time across the globe, in support of national forecasting capabilities. With improvements in seasonal weather forecasting, future advances may include more seamless hydrological forecasting at the global scale, alongside a move towards multi-model forecasts and grand ensemble techniques, responding to the requirement of developing multi-hazard early warning systems for disaster risk reduction

Research on the Geography of Agricultural Change: Redundant or Revitalized?

Future research directions for agricultural geography were the subject of debate in Area in the late 1980s. The subsequent application of political economy ideas undoubtedly revived interest in agricultural research. This paper argues that agricultural geography contains greater diversity than the dominant political economy discourse would suggest. It reviews ‘other’ areas of agricultural research on policy, post-productivism, people, culture and animals, presenting future suggestions for research. They should ensure that agricultural research continues revitalized rather than redundant into the next millennium