Detrended fluctuation analysis as a statistical tool to monitor the climate

Detrended fluctuation analysis is used to investigate power law relationship between the monthly averages of the maximum daily temperatures for different locations in the western US. On the map created by the power law exponents, we can distinguish different geographical regions with different power law exponents. When the power law exponents obtained from the detrended fluctuation analysis are plotted versus the standard deviation of the temperature fluctuations, we observe different data points belonging to the different climates, hence indicating that by observing the long-time trends in the fluctuations of temperature we can distinguish between different climates.Comment: 8 pages, 4 figures, submitted to JSTA

Predicting live birth, preterm and low birth weight infant after in-vitro fertilisation: a prospective study of 144018 treatment cycles

Background The extent to which baseline couple characteristics affect the probability of live birth and adverse perinatal outcomes after assisted conception is unknown. Methods and Findings We utilised the Human Fertilisation and Embryology Authority database to examine the predictors of live birth in all in vitro fertilisation (IVF) cycles undertaken in the UK between 2003 and 2007 (n = 144,018). We examined the potential clinical utility of a validated model that pre-dated the introduction of intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) as compared to a novel model. For those treatment cycles that resulted in a live singleton birth (n = 24,226), we determined the associates of potential risk factors with preterm birth, low birth weight, and macrosomia. The overall rate of at least one live birth was 23.4 per 100 cycles (95% confidence interval [CI] 23.2–23.7). In multivariable models the odds of at least one live birth decreased with increasing maternal age, increasing duration of infertility, a greater number of previously unsuccessful IVF treatments, use of own oocytes, necessity for a second or third treatment cycle, or if it was not unexplained infertility. The association of own versus donor oocyte with reduced odds of live birth strengthened with increasing age of the mother. A previous IVF live birth increased the odds of future success (OR 1.58, 95% CI 1.46–1.71) more than that of a previous spontaneous live birth (OR 1.19, 95% CI 0.99–1.24); p-value for difference in estimate <0.001. Use of ICSI increased the odds of live birth, and male causes of infertility were associated with reduced odds of live birth only in couples who had not received ICSI. Prediction of live birth was feasible with moderate discrimination and excellent calibration; calibration was markedly improved in the novel compared to the established model. Preterm birth and low birth weight were increased if oocyte donation was required and ICSI was not used. Risk of macrosomia increased with advancing maternal age and a history of previous live births. Infertility due to cervical problems was associated with increased odds of all three outcomes—preterm birth, low birth weight, and macrosomia. Conclusions Pending external validation, our results show that couple- and treatment-specific factors can be used to provide infertile couples with an accurate assessment of whether they have low or high risk of a successful outcome following IVF

Theory, tools, and multidisciplinary applications for tracing groundwater fluxes from temperature profiles

Quantifying groundwater fluxes to and from deep aquifers or shallow sediment is a critical task faced by researchers and practitioners from many environmental science disciplines including hydrology, hydrogeology, ecology, climatology, and oceanography. Groundwater discharge to inland and coastal water bodies influences their water budgets, thermal regimes, and biogeochemistry. Conversely, downward water flow from the land surface or from surface water bodies to underlying aquifers represents an important water flux that must be quantified for sustainable groundwater management. Because these vertical subsurface flows are slow and typically diffuse, they cannot be measured directly and must rather be estimated using groundwater tracers. Heat is a naturally occurring groundwater tracer that is ubiquitous in the subsurface and readily measured. Most of the academic literature has focused on groundwater temperature tracing methods capitalizing on the propagation of diel temperature sine waves into sediment beneath surface water bodies. Such methods rely on temperature–time series to infer groundwater fluxes and are typically only viable in the shallow subsurface and in locations with focused groundwater fluxes. Alternative methods that utilize temperature–depth profiles are applicable across a broader range of hydrologic environments, and point‐in‐time measurements can be quickly taken to cover larger spatial scales. Applications of these methods have been impeded due in part to the lack of understanding regarding their potential applications and limitations. Herein, we highlight relevant theory, thermal data collection techniques, and recent diverse field applications to stimulate further multidisciplinary uptake of thermal groundwater tracing methods that rely on temperature–depth profiles

Surface temperature trends in Russia over the past five centuries reconstructed from borehole temperatures

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/94976/1/jgrb13614.pd