A probabilistic model for explaining the points achieved by a team in football competition. Forecasting and regression with applications to the Spanish competition

In the last decades, a lot of research papers applying statistical methods for analysing sports data have been published. Football, also called soccer, is one of the most popular sports all over the world organised in national championships in a round robin format in which the team reaching the most points at the end of the tournament wins the competition. The aim of this work is to develop a suitable probability model for studying the points achieved by a team in a football match. For this purpose, we built a discrete probability distribution taking values, zero for losing, one for a draw and three for a victory. We test its performance using data from the Spanish Football League (First division) during the 2013-14 season. Furthermore, the model provides an attractive framework for predicting points and incorporating covariates in order to study the factors affecting the points achieved by the teams.Peer Reviewe

El modelo de Poisson generalizado inflado de ceros: una aplicación en el entorno educativo universitario

This paper presents the zero-inflated generalised Poisson distribution, which is useful when there is a large presence of zeros in the sample. After presenting the model, we develop a specific program based on Mathematica, overcoming some limitations of alternative approaches such as STATA or EViews, which do not include the zero-inflated Poisson distribution among its routines. The advantages of the model used and the proposed program are illustrated with a real example that is very appropriate to its features, namely an analysis of the factors influencing university students’ attendance at tutoring sessions. This example is particularly suitable to show the usefulness of the methodology presented because it includes a large number of zeros, reflecting the many occasions on which the students do not attend these sessions. The students’ place of residence, their attendance at lectures and the application of continual assessment are variables that seem to account for attendance at tutoring sessions.En este trabajo presentamos la distribución de Poisson generalizada inflada de ceros, que se ha mostrado útil en escenarios en los que aparece una amplia presencia de ceros en la muestra. La presentación del modelo se completa con el desarrollo de un programa específico basado en Mathematica que supera algunas limitaciones de otros programas como STATA o EViews que no incluye la distribución de Poisson inflada de ceros en su catálogo. Las ventajas del modelo presentado y del programa propuesto se ilustran con un ejemplo real que se ajusta bien a sus características: el análisis de los factores que influyen en la asistencia de los estudiantes universitarios a las tutorías académicas. Este ejemplo es especialmente adecuado para mostrar la utilidad de la metodología presentada dado que incluye un elevado número de ceros reflejo del alto número de veces que los estudiantes contestan que no han asistido a tutorías. El lugar de residencia, la asistencia a clases de teoría, así como el seguimiento de la evaluación continua se muestran como las variables que parecen explicar la asistencia a la tutoría académica

A probabilistic model for explaining the points achieved by a team in football competition : forecasting and regression with applications to the Spanish competition

In the last decades, a lot of research papers applying statistical methods for analysing sports data have been published. Football, also called soccer, is one of the most popular sports all over the world organised in national championships in a round robin format in which the team reaching the most points at the end of the tournament wins the competition. The aim of this work is to develop a suitable probability model for studying the points achieved by a team in a football match. For this purpose, we built a discrete probability distribution taking values, zero for losing, one for a draw and three for a victory. We test its performance using data from the Spanish Football League (First division) during the 2013-14 season. Furthermore, the model provides an attractive framework for predicting points and incorporating covariates in order to study the factors affecting the points achieved by the teams

A bivariate response model for studying the marks obtained in two jointly-dependent modules in higher education

We study the factors which may affect students' marks in two modules, mathematics and statistics, taught consecutively in the first year of a Business Administration Studies degree course. For this purpose, we introduce a suitable bivariate regression model in which the dependent variables have bounded support and the marginal means are functions of explanatory variables. The marginal probability density functions have a classical beta distribution. Simulation experiments were performed to observe the behaviour of the maximum likelihood estimators. Comparisons with univariate beta regression models show the proposed bivariate regression model to be superior

Un modelo de regresión logística asimétrico que puede explicar la probabilidad de éxito en el rendimiento académico

The aim of this work is to explain the probability of passing first year Mathematics, subject that is included in the Degree of Business Administration and Management at the University of Las Palmas de Gran Canaria. In order to reach this goal, this paper identifies some of the factors that influence this probability measure by using firstly a classic logistic regression model (logit) and, secondly, an asymmetric Bayesian logit model. The obtained results show that the significant variables that affect academic achievement in terms of the relative probability of passing the subject are: regular attendance to lectures and tutorials, student’s opinion about material provided by lecturers to prepare the subject, the type of high-school where students took secondary studies and attendance to extra supporting lectures. Future extension of this work consists of analyzing the relationships between some of the explanatory variables considered.En este estudio se pretende explicar la probabilidad de éxito en la asignatura Matemáticas Empresariales correspondiente al Grado en Administración y Dirección de Empresas en la Universidad de Las Palmas de Gran Canaria. Para ello se intentará detectar qué factores influyen en dicha probabilidad utilizando, primero un modelo de regresión logística clásico y, en segundo lugar, un modelo de regresión logística asimétrico Bayesiano. Los resultados obtenidos permiten concluir que las variables significativas que podrían determinar el rendimiento académico en términos de la probabilidad relativa de aprobar la asignatura son: la asistencia con regularidad a clases de teoría y prácticas, que el estudiante valore positivamente el material del que dispone para el seguimiento de la asignatura, el tipo de centro en que se cursaron los estudios preuniversitarios y la asistencia a clases de apoyo. La discusión abre líneas de trabajo futuras que analicen las relaciones entre algunas de las variables consideradas

Evaluación y fomento de la competencia de comunicación oral de los estudiantes universitarios

En este trabajo se presenta una experiencia destinada a fomentar y evaluar la competencia de comunicación oral en estudiantes universitarios de grado. Con esta finalidad, y teniendo como objetivo la mejora de la empleabilidad, se hace necesario promover acciones formativas en habilidades comunicativas; entre ellas se enmarca el Torneo 10 en 5 “Idea de Negocio” que es la experiencia que se propone. El torneo consiste en presentar en equipo una idea de negocio en 5 minutos, apoyándose en 10 imágenes estáticas. En una primera fase, tras cada presentación, un jurado realiza un feedback a cada equipo, que sirve como formación de cara a la siguiente fase. Finalizado el torneo, se realiza una entrevista en profundidad a los participantes, valorándose sus expectativas previas sobre la experiencia y su nivel de satisfacción. Entre las conclusiones alcanzadas destaca que este formato de exposición se revela como una herramienta de comunicación oral original y creativa. Asimismo, el torneo sirve como elemento impulsor de la participación del estudiante en su proceso formativoIn this paper we present an experience to promote and evaluate oral communication skills in undergraduate students. In order to improve employability, it is necessary to promote activities focused on communication skills, like the “Tournament 10 in 5 Business Idea" that we propose here. This tournament consists of making team presentations of a business idea in 5 minutes, drawing on 10 still images. Firstly, after each presentation, the jury gives feedback to each team to provide training for the next step. After the tournament, an in-depth interview with all the participants is performed to assess their expectations before the experience and their level of satisfaction. The main conclusion we highlight is that the presentation format is an original and creative oral communication tool. The tournament also encourages the participation of the students in their learning process.Proyecto financiado por la ULPGC, UNI2010/S0

Skewed Binary Regression to Study Rental Cars by Tourists in the Canary Islands

Tourism is one of the economic sectors that contributes the most to the gross domestic product in many countries, moving, in turn, other economic sectors such as transport. In particular, the automotive industry constitutes an economic subsector that moves vast amounts of money. Concerning tourism and transport sectors, car rental is a crucial element contributing considerably to gross domestic product and job creation. Due to the effects that vehicle rental seems to have on various economic sectors, it seems interesting to know why a tourist chooses to rent a car during their vacation in a specific destination. This work aims to study those factors that can be considered relevant and affect the probability of renting a vehicle. The document addressed the following research topics: (a) identifying significant variables; and (b) can information on these factors help car rental firms? Empirically, it is shown that more tourists do not rent a car and this fact has to be considered. Thus, the classical logistic and Bayesian regression models do not seem adequate in this case, so that the authors will consider an asymmetric logistic regression model. This work analyzes 28,235 tourists who visited the Canary Islands during 2017. From a Bayesian point of view, asymmetric logistics regression is chosen as the best model because it detects relevant development factors not seen by standard logistic regressions. In light of the document’s findings, various practice recommendations improve decision-making in this field. The asymmetric logit link is a helpful device that can help rental companies make decisions about their clients

Modelling Penalty Cards in Football with Applications

A compound Poisson distribution is used to study factors which can affect the showing of yellow and red cards in a football competition such as a national league, the FIFA World Cup or the UEFA Champi-ons League. The resulting model is applied to outcomes in the Spanish Football League during the season 2013–14, studying the partial and total effects on the home and away teams. It is shown that various factors, such as the victory of the away team, the goal difference be-tween the teams, the total number of fouls committed, the attacking play of the home team, whether the match is a derby or not, the stage reached in the league competition, the level of fair play, the age of the referee and his international experience or lack of it, can all influence the use of cards. The model works well, providing a simple tool which can be applied in this and other sports settings

Measuring efficiency in the Summer Olympic Games disciplines: the case of the Spanish athletes

This paper estimates the technical efficiency of Olympic disciplines in which Spanish athletes participate, taking into account the results obtained in the last three Olympic Games. A stochastic production frontier model (normal-exponential), using two control variables linked to economic factors such as budget and sports scholarships, is estimated in order to obtain different Olympic sports’ efficiencies distinguished by gender, using data from 2005 to 2016. The results detect some differences among the considered disciplines. In all the cases, athletics, canoeing, cycling, swimming, and tennis, depending on the gender, reach better values. This paper’s novelty lies in the efficiency analysis carried out on the Olympic disciplines and athletes of a country and not on the country’s efficiency, which allows managers and stakeholders to decide about investments concerning disciplines and athletes.Ministerio Ciencia e Innovación | Ref. PID2019-105428RB-I00Ministerio de Economía, Industria y Competitividad | Ref. ECO2017-85577-

A Comparative Study of Logistic Models Using an Asymmetric Link: Modelling the Away Victories in Football

The target of this paper is to study the relevant factors affecting the victories away from home of football teams in order to fit the probability of winning an away match. The paper addressed the following research issues: (a) Is the identification of the significant variables underlying the results plausible? (b) Can information of these factors increase the probability of winning away from home and assist coaches in their decisions? Empirically, it is shown that there are more home victories and draws than away victories in the professional football leagues in Europe and this fact has to be taken into account. Thus, the classical logistic and Bayesian regression models do not seem to be adequate in this case and an asymmetric logistic regression model is therefore considered. This paper analyses 380 games played in the First Division of the Spanish Football League during the 2013–2014 season. Asymmetric logistic regression from a Bayesian point of view is chosen as the best model. This model detects new relevant factors undetected by standard logistic regressions. In view of the paper’s findings, various practical recommendations were made in order to improve decision-making in this field. The Asymmetric logit link is a helpful device that can assist coaches in their game strategies