Modelers' Perception of Mathematical Modeling in Epidemiology: A Web-Based Survey

International audienceBackground: Mathematical modeling in epidemiology (MME) is being used increasingly. However, there are many uncertainties in terms of definitions, uses and quality features of MME. Methodology/Principal Findings: To delineate the current status of these models, a 10-item questionnaire on MME was devised. Proposed via an anonymous internet-based survey, the questionnaire was completed by 189 scientists who had published in the domain of MME. A small minority (18%) of respondents claimed to have in mind a concise definition of MME. Some techniques were identified by the researchers as characterizing MME (e.g. Markov models), while others–at the same level of sophistication in terms of mathematics–were not (e.g. Cox regression). The researchers' opinions were also contrasted about the potential applications of MME, perceived as higly relevant for providing insight into complex mechanisms and less relevant for identifying causal factors. The quality criteria were those of good science and were not related to the size and the nature of the public health problems addressed. Conclusions/Significance: This study shows that perceptions on the nature, uses and quality criteria of MME are contrasted, even among the very community of published authors in this domain. Nevertheless, MME is an emerging discipline in epidemiology and this study underlines that it is associated with specific areas of application and methods. The development of this discipline is likely to deserve a framework providing recommendations and guidance at various steps of the studies, from design to report

Mercury in Nelson's Sparrow Subspecies at Breeding Sites

Background: Mercury is a persistent, biomagnifying contaminant that can cause negative effects on ecosystems. Marshes are often areas of relatively high mercury methylation and bioaccumulation. Nelson’s Sparrows (Ammodramus nelsoni) use marsh habitats year-round and have been documented to exhibit tissue mercury concentrations that exceed negative effects thresholds. We sought to further characterize the potential risk of Nelson’s Sparrows to mercury exposure by sampling individuals from sites within the range of each of its subspecies

Serum S100A6 Concentration Predicts Peritoneal Tumor Burden in Mice with Epithelial Ovarian Cancer and Is Associated with Advanced Stage in Patients

BACKGROUND:Ovarian cancer is the 5th leading cause of cancer related deaths in women. Five-year survival rates for early stage disease are greater than 94%, however most women are diagnosed in advanced stage with 5 year survival less than 28%. Improved means for early detection and reliable patient monitoring are needed to increase survival. METHODOLOGY AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS:Applying mass spectrometry-based proteomics, we sought to elucidate an unanswered biomarker research question regarding ability to determine tumor burden detectable by an ovarian cancer biomarker protein emanating directly from the tumor cells. Since aggressive serous epithelial ovarian cancers account for most mortality, a xenograft model using human SKOV-3 serous ovarian cancer cells was established to model progression to disseminated carcinomatosis. Using a method for low molecular weight protein enrichment, followed by liquid chromatography and mass spectrometry analysis, a human-specific peptide sequence of S100A6 was identified in sera from mice with advanced-stage experimental ovarian carcinoma. S100A6 expression was documented in cancer xenografts as well as from ovarian cancer patient tissues. Longitudinal study revealed that serum S100A6 concentration is directly related to tumor burden predictions from an inverse regression calibration analysis of data obtained from a detergent-supplemented antigen capture immunoassay and whole-animal bioluminescent optical imaging. The result from the animal model was confirmed in human clinical material as S100A6 was found to be significantly elevated in the sera from women with advanced stage ovarian cancer compared to those with early stage disease. CONCLUSIONS:S100A6 is expressed in ovarian and other cancer tissues, but has not been documented previously in ovarian cancer disease sera. S100A6 is found in serum in concentrations that correlate with experimental tumor burden and with clinical disease stage. The data signify that S100A6 may prove useful in detecting and/or monitoring ovarian cancer, when used in concert with other biomarkers

Highly Differentiated, Resting Gn-Specific Memory CD8+ T Cells Persist Years after Infection by Andes Hantavirus

In man, infection with South American Andes virus (ANDV) causes hantavirus cardiopulmonary syndrome (HCPS). HCPS due to ANDV is endemic in Southern Chile and much of Argentina and increasing numbers of cases are reported all over South America. A case-fatality rate of about 36% together with the absence of successful antiviral therapies urge the development of a vaccine. Although T-cell responses were shown to be critically involved in immunity to hantaviruses in mouse models, no data are available on the magnitude, specificity and longevity of ANDV-specific memory T-cell responses in patients. Using sets of overlapping peptides in IFN-γ ELISPOT assays, we herein show in 78 Chilean convalescent patients that Gn-derived epitopes were immunodominant as compared to those from the N- and Gc-proteins. Furthermore, while the relative contribution of the N-specific response significantly declined over time, Gn-specific responses remained readily detectable ex vivo up to 13 years after the acute infection. Tetramer analysis further showed that up to 16.8% of all circulating CD3+CD8+ T cells were specific for the single HLA-B*3501-restricted epitope Gn465–473 years after the acute infection. Remarkably, Gn465–473–specific cells readily secreted IFN-γ, granzyme B and TNF-α but not IL-2 upon stimulation and showed a ‘revertant’ CD45RA+CD27−CD28−CCR7−CD127− effector memory phenotype, thereby resembling a phenotype seen in other latent virus infections. Most intriguingly, titers of neutralizing antibodies increased over time in 10/17 individuals months to years after the acute infection and independently of whether they were residents of endemic areas or not. Thus, our data suggest intrinsic, latent antigenic stimulation of Gn-specific T-cells. However, it remains a major task for future studies to proof this hypothesis by determination of viral antigen in convalescent patients. Furthermore, it remains to be seen whether Gn-specific T cells are critical for viral control and protective immunity. If so, Gn-derived immunodominant epitopes could be of high value for future ANDV vaccines

Disrupted autophagy undermines skeletal muscle adaptation and integrity

This review assesses the importance of proteostasis in skeletal muscle maintenance with a specific emphasis on autophagy. Skeletal muscle appears to be particularly vulnerable to genetic defects in basal and induced autophagy, indicating that autophagy is co-substantial to skeletal muscle maintenance and adaptation. We discuss emerging evidence that tension-induced protein unfolding may act as a direct link between mechanical stress and autophagic pathways. Mechanistic links between protein damage, autophagy and muscle hypertrophy, which is also induced by mechanical stress, are still poorly understood. However, some mouse models of muscle disease show ameliorated symptoms upon effective targeting of basal autophagy. These findings highlight the importance of autophagy as therapeutic target and suggest that elucidating connections between protein unfolding and mTOR-dependent or mTOR-independent hypertrophic responses is likely to reveal specific therapeutic windows for the treatment of muscle wasting disorders

The importance of the altricial – precocial spectrum for social complexity in mammals and birds:A review

Various types of long-term stable relationships that individuals uphold, including cooperation and competition between group members, define social complexity in vertebrates. Numerous life history, physiological and cognitive traits have been shown to affect, or to be affected by, such social relationships. As such, differences in developmental modes, i.e. the ‘altricial-precocial’ spectrum, may play an important role in understanding the interspecific variation in occurrence of social interactions, but to what extent this is the case is unclear because the role of the developmental mode has not been studied directly in across-species studies of sociality. In other words, although there are studies on the effects of developmental mode on brain size, on the effects of brain size on cognition, and on the effects of cognition on social complexity, there are no studies directly investigating the link between developmental mode and social complexity. This is surprising because developmental differences play a significant role in the evolution of, for example, brain size, which is in turn considered an essential building block with respect to social complexity. Here, we compiled an overview of studies on various aspects of the complexity of social systems in altricial and precocial mammals and birds. Although systematic studies are scarce and do not allow for a quantitative comparison, we show that several forms of social relationships and cognitive abilities occur in species along the entire developmental spectrum. Based on the existing evidence it seems that differences in developmental modes play a minor role in whether or not individuals or species are able to meet the cognitive capabilities and requirements for maintaining complex social relationships. Given the scarcity of comparative studies and potential subtle differences, however, we suggest that future studies should consider developmental differences to determine whether our finding is general or whether some of the vast variation in social complexity across species can be explained by developmental mode. This would allow a more detailed assessment of the relative importance of developmental mode in the evolution of vertebrate social systems