Early and Late Demographic Transitions: the Role of Urbanization

This paper uses new estimates of the dates on which different countries have experienced their demographic transition to address two empirical questions. First, I study the importance of different socioeconomic variables on the timing of these transitions. Second, I distinguish between countries that have experienced early and late demographic transitions and compare their relative income around the transition date. My results indicate that the size of a country’s urban population plays a crucial role in triggering its demographic transition. In particular, after controlling for income and total population, more urbanized countries tend to experience an earlier demographic transition. Moreover, countries that experience an early demographic transition (before 1950) are much richer than latecomers, suggesting that urbanization plays a more important role than income in the latter. One interpretation of these results is that a country’s level of income and rate of urbanization are substitutable factors that trigger the country’s demographic transition. Finally, if one accepts the premise that urban agglomerations enhance both technological progress and the demand for human capital, the results provide indirect support for theories that highlight these factors as triggers of the demographic transition or the escape from Malthusian traps.urbanization, demographic transition, rural-urban migration, Malthusian traps

The Diffusion of Internet: A Cross-Country Analysis

This paper analyzes the process of Internet diffusion across the world using a panel of 199 countries during the time interval 1990-2004. We group countries in two categories, low and high income countries, and show that the Internet diffusion process is well characterized by an S-shape curve for both groups. Low income countries display a steeper diffusion curve and equivalent to a right shift of the high income countries diffusion curve. The estimated diffusion curves provide evidence of a “catching up” process, although a very slow one. We next explore the determinants of Internet diffusion at the country level and across the same income groups. Our most novel finding is that network effects seem to be crucial—the number of Internet users in a country at a given year is positively associated with the number of users in the previous year. We also find that the degree of competition in the provision of Internet contributes positively to its diffusion and we also identify significant positive language externalities.Technological diffusion; Internet; S-shape curve; Network externalities; Digital divide

Human capital, culture and the onset of the demographic transition

This paper uses estimates of the dates at which different countries have experienced their demographic transitions to examine the main historical determinants of these transitions. We first show that genetic distance to the United Kingdom, a measure of cultural relatedness used in Spolaore and Wacziarg (2009), is positively associated with the onset of the demographic transition, implying that countries that have a larger genetic distance from the UK tend to experience later transitions. We then unveil a plausible mechanism that can rationalize this result. We show that genetic distance to the UK is negatively related to a country's initial human capital, measured as its schooling level in 1870. One interpretation of this finding is that a larger genetic distance is associated with higher barriers to technological diffusion and hence a lower demand for human capital. This low demand for human capital then delays the demographic transition by providing less incentives for households to switch from quantity to quality of children. Instrumenting initial human capital using genetic distance to the UK and alternative measures of adherence to Protestantism, we confirm the causal link between human capital and the onset of the demographic transition. Further, we show that the impact of cultural relatedness to the UK can be mainly attributed to its effect on educational levels

How Endogenous Is Money? Evidence from a New Microeconomic Estimate

This paper uses microeconomic data on firms’ money demand and investment in physical capital for the period 1983-2006 to estimate the extent to which variation in the U.S. money supply is an endogenous response to variation in firms’ demand for liquidity. We estimate a simple model in which each firm’s desired money balances in any period depend on that firm’s current transactions, current investment, and its planned future investment, as well as aggregate variables such as interest rates and common policy forecasts. Calculations based on our estimates suggest that only a very small fraction of the variability in the aggregate stock of money represents an endogenous response to autonomous changes in firms’ investment plans.Money demand, money supply, endogenous money, monetary neutrality

Democracy, Diversification, and Growth Reversals

There is much evidence that less democratic countries experience more high-frequency growth volatility. In this paper we report a similar finding about volatility in the medium term: we find evidence that reversals of trend-growth are sharper and more frequent in non-democracies. Motivated by this evidence, we construct a model in which non-democracies have high barriers of entry for new firms. This leads to less sectoral diversification and so, in an uncertain environment, to larger growth swings in less democratic countries. We present empirical evidence that confirms the positive relation between democracy and industrial diversification.medium term growth, growth volatility, democracy, diversification

Macroeconomic costs of gender gaps in a model with household production and entrepreneurship

This paper examines the quantitative effects of gender gaps in entrepreneurship and workforce participation in an occupational choice model with a household sector. Gender gaps in entrepreneurship affect negatively both income and aggregate productivity, since they reduce the entrepreneurs’ average talent and female labor force participation. We estimate the gender gaps for 37 European countries and we find that gender gaps cause an average market output loss of 11.5% when they are considered constant across talent levels. The loss in total output, which also includes household production, varies between 6.4% and 8.7%, depending on the household productivity parameter

Conversation analysis and the study of social institutions: methodological, socio-cultural and epistemic considerations

The objective of this study is to show how conversation analysis, a sociological discipline, approaches the study of social institutions. Social institutions are conceived as the crystallization of members' communicative, interactional practices. Two institutional domains-psychiatric interviews and broadcast news interviews -and a specific interactional practice-'formulations'-are examined in this study. The results show that (1) in psychiatric interviews the psychiatrist uses formulations to transform the patients' avowals and establish a psychiatric problem. (2) In broadcast news interviews, formulations might help the interviewer to clarify or transform the statements of the interviewee, or challenge his assertions. The comparison of formulations in two different institutional settings serves the purpose of (1) demonstrating how communicative conduct is adapted in particular settings in ways that invoke and configure distinct social institutions and (2) inspect the knowledge, practices, logic, etc., mobilized by members of the epistemic communities of psychiatry and journalism.El objetivo de este estudio es mostrar cómo la disciplina sociológica del análisis de la conversación aborda el estudio de las instituciones sociales. Las instituciones sociales se conciben como la cristalización de las prácticas comunicativas y de interacción de los miembros de la sociedad. Se examinan dos dominios institucionales -las entrevistas psiquiátricas y las entrevistas en las noticias- y una práctica interaccional específica: las 'formulaciones'. Los resultados muestran que (1) en las entrevistas psiquiátricas las formulaciones ayudan al psiquiatra a transformar las declaraciones de los pacientes para poder así establecer un problema de orden psiquiátrico. (2) En la entrevista televisada, las formulaciones ayudan al entrevistador a clarificar o transformar las declaraciones del entrevistado, o desafiar sus afirmaciones. La comparación de las formulaciones en dos entornos institucionales diferentes sirve para (1) demostrar cómo se adapta la conducta comunicativa en contextos específicos de maneras que invocan y configuran distintas instituciones sociales, y (2) observar el conocimiento, prácticas, lógica, etc., movilizados por los miembros de las comunidades epistémicas de la psiquiatría y el periodismo

El análisis de la conversación y el estudio de las instituciones sociales : consideraciones metodológicas, socioculturales y epistémicas

L'objectiu d'aquest estudi és mostrar com la disciplina sociològica de l'anàlisi de la conversa aborda l'estudi de les institucions socials. Les institucions socials es conceben com la cristal·lització de les pràctiques comunicatives i d'interacció dels membres de la societat. S'examinen dos dominis institucionals -les entrevistes psiquiàtriques i les entrevistes en les notícies- i una pràctica interaccional específica: les 'formulacions'. Els resultats mostren que (1) en les entrevistes psiquiàtriques les formulacions ajuden al psiquiatre a transformar les declaracions dels pacients per poder així establir un problema d'ordre psiquiàtric. (2) En l'entrevista televisada, les formulacions ajuden a l'entrevistador a aclarir o transformar les declaracions de l'entrevistat, o desafiar les seves afirmacions. La comparació de les formulacions en dos entorns institucionals diferents serveix per (1) demostrar com s'adapta la conducta comunicativa en contextos específics de maneres que invoquen i configuren diferents institucions socials, i (2) observar el coneixement, pràctiques, lògica, etc., mobilitzats pels membres de les comunitats epistèmiques de la psiquiatria i el periodisme.The objective of this study is to show how conversation analysis, a sociological discipline, approaches the study of social institutions. Social institutions are conceived as the crystallization of members’ communicative, interactional practices. Two institutional domains—psychiatric interviews and broadcast news interviews —and a specific interactional practice—‘formulations’—are examined in this study. The results show that (1) in psychiatric interviews the psychiatrist uses formulations to transform the patients’ avowals and establish a psychiatric problem. (2) In broadcast news interviews, formulations might help the interviewer to clarify or transform the statements of the interviewee, or challenge his assertions. The comparison of formulations in two different institutional settings serves the purpose of (1) demonstrating how communicative conduct is adapted in particular settings in ways that invoke and configure distinct social institutions and (2) inspect the knowledge, practices, logic, etc., mobilized by members of the epistemic communities of psychiatry and journalism.El objetivo de este estudio es mostrar cómo la disciplina sociológica del análisis de la conversación aborda el estudio de las instituciones sociales. Las instituciones sociales se conciben como la cristalización de las prácticas comunicativas y de interacción de los miembros de la sociedad. Se examinan dos dominios institucionales —las entrevistas psiquiátricas y las entrevistas en las noticias— y una práctica interaccional específica: las ‘formulaciones’. Los resultados muestran que (1) en las entrevistas psiquiátricas las formulaciones ayudan al psiquiatra a transformar las declaraciones de los pacientes para poder así establecer un problema de orden psiquiátrico. (2) En la entrevista televisada, las formulaciones ayudan al entrevistador a clarificar o transformar las declaraciones del entrevistado, o desafiar sus afirmaciones. La comparación de las formulaciones en dos entornos institucionales diferentes sirve para (1) demostrar cómo se adapta la conducta comunicativa en contextos específicos de maneras que invocan y configuran distintas instituciones sociales, y (2) observar el conocimiento, prácticas, lógica, etc., movilizados por los miembros de las comunidades epistémicas de la psiquiatría y el periodismo