Simulation-based flood fragility and vulnerability analysis for expanding cities

Accurately quantifying flood-induced impacts on buildings and other infrastructure systems is essential for risk-sensitive planning and decision-making in expanding urban regions. Flood-induced impacts are directly related to the physical components of assets damaged due to contact with water. Such components include building contents (e.g., appliances, furniture) and other non-structural components whose damage/unavailability can severely impact the buildingsﾒ functionality. Conventional fragility analysis approaches for flooding do not account for the physical damage to the individual components, mostly relying on empirical methods based on historical data. However, recent studies proposed simulation-based, assembly-based fragility models that account for the damage to the building components. Such fragility models require developing detailed inventories of vulnerable components of households and identifying building archetypes to be considered in a building portfolio for the region of interest. Content inventories and building portfolios have so far been obtained for specific socio-economic contexts such as the United States of America. However, building types and their content can significantly differ between countries, making the available fragility models and computational frameworks unsuitable for flood vulnerability analysis in rapidly expanding cities characterised by extensive informal settlements, such as low- and middle-income countries. This paper details how to adapt the available methodologies for flood vulnerability assessment to the context of formal and informal settlements of expanding cities in the global south. It also details the development of content inventories for households in these cities using field surveys. The proposed survey is deployed in various areas vulnerable to floods in Kathmandu, Nepal. Based on the survey results, each component within the household is associated with a corresponding flood capacity (resistance) distribution (in terms of water height and flood duration). These distributions are then employed in a simulation-based probabilistic framework to obtain fragility relationship and consequence models. The relevant differences between the results obtained in this study and those from previous studies are then investigated for a case-study building type. In addition, the influence of socio-economic factors (e.g., household income) and past flood experience (possibly resulting in various flood-risk mitigation strategies at a household level) on the resulting flood impacts is also included in the model

Clone wars:asexual reproduction dominates in the invasive range of Tubastraea spp. (Anthozoa: Scleractinia) in the South-Atlantic Ocean

Although the invasive azooxanthellate corals Tubastraea coccinea and T. tagusensis are spreading quickly and outcompeting native species in the Atlantic Ocean, there is little information regarding the genetic structure and path of introduction for these species. Here we present the first data on genetic diversity and clonal structure from these two species using a new set of microsatellite markers. High proportions of clones were observed, indicating that asexual reproduction has a major role in the local population dynamics and, therefore, represents one of the main reasons for the invasion success. Although no significant population structure was found, results suggest the occurrence of multiple invasions for T. coccinea and also that both species are being transported along the coast by vectors such as oil platforms and monobouys, spreading these invasive species. In addition to the description of novel microsatellite markers, this study sheds new light into the invasive process of Tubastraea.Coordenacao de Aperfeicoamento de Pessoal de Nivel SuperiorFundacao Carlos Chagas Filho de Amparo a Pesquisa do Estado do Rio de JaneiroConselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cientifico e TecnologicoFundacao de Amparo a Pesquisa do Estado de Sao PauloNSF-OA (National Science Foundation)Univ Fed Rio de Janeiro, Dept Zool, Rio De Janeiro, BrazilUniv Hawaii Manoa, Hawaii Inst Marine Biol, Sch Ocean & Earth Sci & Technol, Kaneohe, HI USACoral Sol Res Technol Dev & Innovat Network, Rio De Janeiro, BrazilUniv Fed Rio de Janeiro, Inst Microbiol Paulo Goes, Rio De Janeiro, BrazilUniv Estado Rio de Janeiro, Dept Ecol, Rio De Janeiro, BrazilUniv Fed Sao Paulo, Dept Ciencias Mar, Santos, BrazilUniv Sao Paulo, Ctr Biol Marinha, Sao Sebastiao, BrazilUniv Fed Sao Paulo, Dept Ciencias Mar, Santos, BrazilCAPES: 1137/2010FAPERJ: E26/010.003031/2014FAPERJ: E26/201.286/2014CNPq: 305330/2010-1FAPESP: 2014/01332-0Web of Scienc

Vegetated coastal ecosystems in the Southwestern Atlantic Ocean are an unexploited opportunity for climate change mitigation

Vegetated coastal ecosystems (mangroves, seagrasses, and saltmarshes, often called Blue Carbon ecosystems) store large carbon stocks. However, their regional carbon inventories, sequestration rates, and potential as natural climate change mitigation strategies are poorly constrained. Here, we systematically review organic carbon storage and accumulation rates in vegetated coastal ecosystems across the Central and Southwestern Atlantic, extending from Guyana (08.28°N) to Argentina (55.14°S). We estimate that 0.4 Pg organic carbon is stored in the region, which is approximately 2-5% of global carbon stores in coastal vegetated systems, and that they accumulate 0.5 to 3.9 Tg carbon annually. By ecosystem type, mangroves have the largest areal extent and contribute 70-80% of annual organic carbon accumulation, with Brazil hosting roughly 95% of mangrove stocks. Our findings suggest that organic carbon accumulation in the region is equivalent to 0.7 to 13% of global rates in vegetated coastal ecosystems, indicating the importance of conserving these ecosystems as a nature-based approach for mitigating and adapting to climate change

Nucleotide supplementation: a randomised double-blind placebo controlled trial of IntestAidIB in people with Irritable Bowel Syndrome [ISRCTN67764449]

BACKGROUND: Dietary nucleotide supplementation has been shown to have important effects on the growth and development of cells which have a rapid turnover such as those in the immune system and the gastrointestinal tract. Work with infants has shown that the incidence and duration of diarrhoea is lower when nucleotide supplementation is given, and animal work shows that villi height and crypt depth in the intestine is increased as a result of dietary nucleotides. Dietary nucleotides may be semi-essential under conditions of ill-health, poor diet or stress. Since people with Irritable Bowel Syndrome tend to fulfil these conditions, we tested the hypothesis that symptoms would be improved with dietary nucleotide supplementation. METHODS: Thirty-seven people with a diagnosis of Irritable Bowel gave daily symptom severity ratings for abdominal pain, diarrhoea, urgency to have a bowel movement, incomplete feeling of evacuation after a bowel movement, bloating, flatulence and constipation for 28 days (baseline). They were then assigned to either placebo (56 days) followed by experimental (56 days) or the reverse. There was a four week washout period before crossover. During the placebo and experimental conditions participants took one 500 mg capsule three times a day; in the experimental condition the capsule contained the nutroceutical substances. Symptom severity ratings and psychological measures (anxiety, depression, illness intrusiveness and general health) were obtained and analysed by repeated measures ANOVAs. RESULTS: Symptom severity for all symptoms (except constipation) were in the expected direction of baseline>placebo>experimental condition. Symptom improvement was in the range 4 – 6%. A feeling of incomplete evacuation and abdominal pain showed the most improvement. The differences between conditions for diarrhoea, bloating and flatulence were not significant at the p < .05 level. There were no significant differences between the conditions for any of the psychological measures. CONCLUSION: Dietary nucleotide supplementation improves some of the symptoms of irritable bowel above baseline and placebo level. As expected, placebo effects were high. Apart from abdominal pain and urgency to have a bowel movement, the improvements, while consistent, are modest, and were not accompanied by improvements in any of the psychological measures. We suggest that the percentage improvement over and above the placebo effect is a physiological effect of the nucleotide supplement on the gut. The mechanisms by which these effects might improve symptoms are discussed

Seagrass and submerged aquatic vegetation (VAS) habitats off the Coast of Brazil: state of knowledge, conservation and main threats

Seagrass meadows are among the most threatened ecosystems on earth, raising concerns about the equilibrium of coastal ecosystems and the sustainability of local fisheries. The present review evaluated the current status of the research on seagrasses and submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) habitats off the coast of Brazil in terms of plant responses to environmental conditions, changes in distribution and abundance, and the possible role of climate change and variability. Despite an increase in the number of studies, the communication of the results is still relatively limited and is mainly addressed to a national or regional public; thus, South American seagrasses are rarely included or cited in global reviews and models. The scarcity of large-scale and long-term studies allowing the detection of changes in the structure, abundance and composition of seagrass habitats and associated species still hinders the investigation of such communities with respect to the potential effects of climate change. Seagrass meadows and SAV occur all along the Brazilian coast, with species distribution and abundance being strongly influenced by regional oceanography, coastal water masses, river runoff and coastal geomorphology. Based on these geomorphological, hydrological and ecological features, we characterised the distribution of seagrass habitats and abundances within the major coastal compartments. The current conservation status of Brazilian seagrasses and SAV is critical. The unsustainable exploitation and occupation of coastal areas and the multifold anthropogenic footprints left during the last 100 years led to the loss and degradation of shoreline habitats potentially suitable for seagrass occupation. Knowledge of the prevailing patterns and processes governing seagrass structure and functioning along the Brazilian coast is necessary for the global discussion on climate change. Our review is a first and much-needed step toward a more integrated and inclusive approach to understanding the diversity of coastal plant formations along the Southwestern Atlantic coast as well as a regional alert the projected or predicted effects of global changes on the goods and services provided by regional seagrasses and SAV

Swimming in a Sea of Shame: Incorporating Emotions into Explanations of Institutional Reproduction and Change

We theorize the role in institutional processes of what we call the shame nexus, a set of shame-related constructs: felt shame, systemic shame, sense of shame, and episodic shaming. As a discrete emotion, felt shame signals to a person that a social bond is at risk and catalyzes a fundamental motivation to preserve valued bonds. We conceptualize systemic shame as a form of disciplinary power, animated by persons’ sense of shame, a mechanism of ongoing intersubjective surveillance and self-regulation. We theorize how the duo of the sense of shame and systemic shame drives the self-regulation that underpins persons’ conformity to institutional prescriptions and institutional reproduction. We conceptualize episodic shaming as a form of juridical power used by institutional guardians to elicit renewed conformity and reassert institutional prescriptions. We also explain how episodic shaming may have unintended effects, including institutional disruption and recreation, when it triggers sensemaking among targets and observers that can lead to the reassessment of the appropriateness of institutional prescriptions or the value of social bonds. We link the shame nexus to three broad categories of institutional work

A novel model for cyanobacteria bloom formation: the critical role of anoxia and ferrous iron

SUMMARY 1. A novel conceptual model linking anoxia, phosphorus (P), nitrogen (N), iron (Fe) and sulphate to the formation of noxious filamentous and colonial cyanobacteria blooms is presented that reconciles seemingly contradictory ideas about the roles of P, N and Fe in bloom formation. 2. The model has several critical concepts: (i) P regulates biomass and productivity in fresh waters until excessive loading renders a system N-limited or light-limited, but it is the availability of ferrous ions (Fe 2+ ) that regulates the ability of cyanobacteria to compete with its eukaryotic competitors; (ii) Fe 2+ diffusing from anoxic sediments is a major Fe source for cyanobacteria, which acquire it by migrating downwards into Fe 2+ -rich anoxic waters from oxygenated waters; and (iii) subsequent cyanobacterial siderophore production provides a supply of Fe 3+ for reduction at cyanobacteria cell membranes that leads to very low Fe 3+ concentrations in the mixing zone. 3. When light and temperature are physiologically suitable for cyanobacteria growth, bloom onset is regulated by the onset of internal Fe 2+ loading which in turn is controlled by anoxia, reducible Fe content of surface sediments and sulphate reduction rate. 4. This conceptual model provides the basis for improving the success of approaches to eutrophication management because of its far-reaching explanatory power over the wide range of conditions where noxious cyanobacteria blooms have been observed

Mercaptopurine versus placebo to prevent recurrence of Crohn's disease after surgical resection (TOPPIC):a multicentre, double-blind, randomised controlled trial

SummaryBackgroundUp to 60% of patients with Crohn's disease need intestinal resection within the first 10 years of diagnosis, and postoperative recurrence is common. We investigated whether mercaptopurine can prevent or delay postoperative clinical recurrence of Crohn's disease.MethodsWe did a randomised, placebo-controlled, double-blind trial at 29 UK secondary and tertiary hospitals of patients (aged >16 years in Scotland or >18 years in England and Wales) who had a confirmed diagnosis of Crohn's disease and had undergone intestinal resection. Patients were randomly assigned (1:1) by a computer-generated web-based randomisation system to oral daily mercaptopurine at a dose of 1 mg/kg bodyweight rounded to the nearest 25 mg or placebo; patients with low thiopurine methyltransferase activity received half the normal dose. Patients and their carers and physicians were masked to the treatment allocation. Patients were followed up for 3 years. The primary endpoint was clinical recurrence of Crohn's disease (Crohn's Disease Activity Index >150 plus 100-point increase in score) and the need for anti-inflammatory rescue treatment or primary surgical intervention. Primary and safety analyses were by intention to treat. Subgroup analyses by smoking status, previous thiopurines, previous infliximab or methotrexate, previous surgery, duration of disease, or age at diagnosis were also done. This trial is registered with the International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial Register (ISRCTN89489788) and the European Clinical Trials Database (EudraCT number 2006-005800-15).FindingsBetween June 6, 2008, and April 23, 2012, 240 patients with Crohn's disease were randomly assigned: 128 to mercaptopurine and 112 to placebo. All patients received at least one dose of study drug, and no randomly assigned patients were excluded from the analysis. 16 (13%) of patients in the mercaptopurine group versus 26 (23%) patients in the placebo group had a clinical recurrence of Crohn's disease and needed anti-inflammatory rescue treatment or primary surgical intervention (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 0·54, 95% CI 0·27–1·06; p=0·07; unadjusted HR 0·53, 95% CI 0·28–0·99; p=0·046). In a subgroup analysis, three (10%) of 29 smokers in the mercaptopurine group and 12 (46%) of 26 in the placebo group had a clinical recurrence that needed treatment (HR 0·13, 95% CI 0·04–0·46), compared with 13 (13%) of 99 non-smokers in the mercaptopurine group and 14 (16%) of 86 in the placebo group (0·90, 0·42–1·94; pinteraction=0·018). The effect of mercaptopurine did not significantly differ from placebo for any of the other planned subgroup analyses (previous thiopurines, previous infliximab or methotrexate, previous surgery, duration of disease, or age at diagnosis). The incidence and types of adverse events were similar in the mercaptopurine and placebo groups. One patient on placebo died of ischaemic heart disease. Adverse events caused discontinuation of treatment in 39 (30%) of 128 patients in the mercaptopurine group versus 41 (37%) of 112 in the placebo group.InterpretationMercaptopurine is effective in preventing postoperative clinical recurrence of Crohn's disease, but only in patients who are smokers. Thus, in smokers, thiopurine treatment seems to be justified in the postoperative period, although smoking cessation should be strongly encouraged given that smoking increases the risk of recurrence.FundingMedical Research Council