Threshold Effects in Coral Reef Fisheries

Coral reefs may naturally flip between coral-dominated and algae-dominated states, when species' stocks trespass some threshold levels. This essay uses a stylized model of a coral reef to show how fishing may induce flips towards more algae-dominated states. Threshold effects have consequences for fisheries management, which are analyzed for open access fisheries and sole ownership.Multiple Steady States, Fisheries, Threshold Effects, Coral Reefs, Skiba Points

Management Challenges for Multiple-Species Boreal Forests

Recent research in natural sciences shows that boreal forests' dynamics are much more complex than what many models traditionally used in forestry economics reflect. This essay analyses some challenges of accounting for such complexity. When forest owners continuously harvest several species, more than one harvesting strategy can be optimal. Which one it is depends on the forest's initial state. For some initial states, two different strategies may yield the same welfare. If whole stand harvesting of one tree species is preferred, the optimal period between each harvesting occasions depends on other species' dynamics.Multiple Steady States, Forestry, Non-Convexities, Moose

Time-consistent renewable resource management with present bias and regime shifts

We investigate the extraction plan of present-biased decision makers managing a renewable resource stock whose growth is uncertain and which could undergo a rapid and significant change when stock falls below a threshold. We show that the Markov-Nash equilibrium extraction policy is unique, time consistent, and increasing in resource stock. An increase in the threshold leads to increased resource extraction, rather than the precautionary reduction in extraction often observed with exponential discounting. An increase in the degree of present bias also leads to an increase in resource extraction. Our analysis suggests that accounting for and appropriately dealing with resource managers’ present bias may be important to understand resource use sustainability

Corridors of Clarity: Four Principles to Overcome Uncertainty Paralysis in the Anthropocene

Global environmental change challenges humanity because of its broad scale, long-lasting, and potentially irreversible consequences. Key to an effective response is to use an appropriate scientific lens to peer through the mist of uncertainty that threatens timely and appropriate decisions surrounding these complex issues. Identifying such corridors of clarity could help understanding critical phenomena or causal pathways sufficiently well to justify taking policy action. To this end, we suggest four principles: Follow the strongest and most direct path between policy decisions on outcomes, focus on finding sufficient evidence for policy purpose, prioritize no-regrets policies by avoiding options with controversial, uncertain, or immeasurable benefits, aim for getting the big picture roughly right rather than focusing on details

Review of the research knowledge and gaps on fish populations, fisheries and linked ecosystems in the Central Arctic Ocean (CAO)

This report presents a review of the research knowledge and gaps on fish populations, fisheries and linked ecosystems in the Central Arctic Ocean (CAO). The CAO comprises the deep basins of the Arctic Ocean beyond the shelf break, which largely overlap with the High Seas of the Arctic Ocean, i.e. the marine areas outside the Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) of the Arctic coastal nations. The authors of the report are members of the European Fisheries Inventory in the Central Arctic Ocean (EFICA) Consortium. This study was funded by the European Commission as an EU contribution to the international cooperation within the Agreement to Prevent Unregulated High Seas Fisheries in the Central Arctic Ocean. The report contains desk-based research, using scientific research data bases as well as any available research performed by the EFICA Consortium partners and EU institutions or others. In Chapters 2-8 the authors review the literature and identify specific knowledge gaps. The gap analyses involve comparisons of actual knowledge with desired knowledge on the fish stocks of the CAO to be able to evaluate possibilities for future sustainable fisheries in the area. Chapter 1 is an introductory chapter, and Chapter 9 presents a holistic gap analysis based on Chapters 2-8 and recommendations for research priorities and the next steps. The critical gap analysis highlights that the knowledge gaps for the CAO are enormous and obstruct any quantitative analyses of its fish stocks. This agrees with the conclusions from the Fifth FiSCAO Report (FiSCAO 2018). While data for the physical environment in the CAO (oceanography, bottom topography and ice-cover dynamics) would be sufficient for fish stock modelling and assessment, there is a massive lack of biological and ecological data. The CAO is not a closed system and some aspects of the shelf seas are of high relevance for the CAO, notably connectivity of fish stocks and fish species moving north with climate warming. Scientific research and monitoring programs are established in the shelf seas, and new data are constantly being produced. Fish stock data are available from scientific projects and monitoring programs for some of the shelf seas (Barents Sea, Bering Sea, and to a lesser extent for the Beaufort Sea and the Chukchi Sea). Data exist also for the Russian shelf seas (Kara Sea, Laptev Sea, East Siberian Sea), but these data are not internationally available, while for the areas north of Canada/Greenland data are missing; they do not exist because of the severe ice conditions there. More data from all shelf seas may be hidden in reports that are not publicly accessible. We recommend to make current knowledge generally available by translating key publications and identification of valuable data reports. Research priorities comprise the collection and analysis of primary data in the CAO, and – to a limited extent – from adjacent waters through collaborations with other Signatories of the Agreement (e.g. on population genetics). Further research priorities include an evaluation of ecosystem vulnerability, social-ecological analyses, i.e. recognizing the close and often complex interactions between humans and nature, and recommendations for governance of the CAO. Fulfilling the 14 specific research priorities mentioned in Chapter 9 to “sufficient knowledge available” could enable the potential, future application of an Ecosystem Approach to Management for the CAO

Climate engineering reconsidered

Stratospheric injection of sulphate aerosols has been advocated as an emergency geoengineering measure to tackle dangerous climate change, or as a stop-gap until atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are reduced. But it may not prove to be the game-changer that some imagine

Social dimensions of fertility behavior and consumption patterns in the Anthropocene.

We consider two aspects of the human enterprise that profoundly affect the global environment: population and consumption. We show that fertility and consumption behavior harbor a class of externalities that have not been much noted in the literature. Both are driven in part by attitudes and preferences that are not egoistic but socially embedded; that is, each household's decisions are influenced by the decisions made by others. In a famous paper, Garrett Hardin [G. Hardin, Science 162, 1243-1248 (1968)] drew attention to overpopulation and concluded that the solution lay in people "abandoning the freedom to breed." That human attitudes and practices are socially embedded suggests that it is possible for people to reduce their fertility rates and consumption demands without experiencing a loss in wellbeing. We focus on fertility in sub-Saharan Africa and consumption in the rich world and argue that bottom-up social mechanisms rather than top-down government interventions are better placed to bring about those ecologically desirable changes