Methods for estimating the case fatality ratio for a novel, emerging infectious disease.

During the course of an epidemic of a potentially fatal disease, it is important that the case fatality ratio be well estimated. The authors propose a novel method for doing so based on the Kaplan-Meier survival procedure, jointly considering two outcomes (death and recovery), and evaluate its performance by using data from the 2003 epidemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome in Hong Kong, People's Republic of China. They compare this estimate obtained at various points in the epidemic with the case fatality ratio eventually observed; with two commonly quoted, naïve estimates derived from cumulative incidence and mortality statistics at single time points; and with estimates in which a parametric mixture model is used. They demonstrate the importance of patient characteristics regarding outcome by analyzing subgroups defined by age at admission to the hospital

Gene × Gene interaction between MnSOD and GPX-1 and breast cancer risk: a nested case-control study

BACKGROUND: Germ-line mutations in genes such as BRCA1, BRCA2, and ATM can cause a substantial increase in risk of breast cancer. However, these mutations are rare in the general population, and account for little of the incidence of sporadic breast cancer in the general population. Therefore, research has been focused on examining associations between common polymorphisms and breast cancer risk. To date, few associations have been described. This has led to the hypothesis that breast cancer is a complex disease, whereby a constellation of very low penetrance alleles need to be carried to present a risk phenotype. Polymorphisms in the manganese superoxide dismutase (MnSOD) and glutathione peroxidase (GPX-1) genes have been proposed as low penetrance alleles, and have not been clearly associated with breast cancer. We investigated whether variants at both polymorphisms, while not independently associated with breast cancer risk, could influence breast cancer risk when considered together. METHODS: A case-control study nested within the Nurses' Health Study was performed comparing 1262 women diagnosed with breast cancer to 1533 disease free women. The MnSOD (Val16Ala, rs1799725) and GPX-1 (Pro198Leu, rs1050450) were genotyped via TaqMan assay. Disease risk was evaluated using logistic regression. RESULTS: While neither allele alone shows any change in breast cancer risk, an increase in the risk of breast cancer (OR 1.87, 95% CI 1.09 – 3.19) is observed in individuals who carry both the Ala16Ala genotype of MnSOD and the Leu198Leu genotype of GPX-1. CONCLUSION: Polymorphisms in the GPX-1 and MnSOD genes are associated with an increased risk of breast cancer

Flow through a circular tube with a permeable Navier slip boundary

For Newtonian fluid flow in a right circular tube, with a linear Navier slip boundary, we show that a second flow field arises which is different to conventional Poiseuille flow in the sense that the corresponding pressure is quadratic in its dependence on the length along the tube, rather than a linear dependence which applies for conventional Poiseuille flow. However, assuming that the quadratic pressure is determined, say from known experimental data, then the new solution only exists for a precisely prescribed permeability along the boundary. While this cannot occur for conventional pipe flow, for fluid flow through carbon nanotubes embedded in a porous matrix, it may well be an entirely realistic possibility, and could well explain some of the high flow rates which have been reported in the literature. Alternatively, if the radial boundary flow is prescribed, then the new flow field exists only for a given quadratic pressure. Our primary purpose here is to demonstrate the existence of a new pipe flow field for a permeable Navier slip boundary and to present a numerical solution and two approximate analytical solutions. The maximum flow rate possible for the new solution is precisely twice that for the conventional Poiseuille flow, which occurs for constant inward directed flow across the boundary

Complete mitochondrial DNA sequences provide new insights into the Polynesian motif and the peopling of Madagascar

More than a decade of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) studies have given the 'Polynesian motif' renowned status as a marker for tracing the late-Holocene expansion of Austronesian speaking populations. Despite considerable research on the Polynesian motif in Oceania, there has been little equivalent work on the western edge of its expansion - leaving major issues unresolved regarding the motif's evolutionary history. This has also led to considerable uncertainty regarding the settlement of Madagascar. In this study, we assess mtDNA variation in 266 individuals from three Malagasy ethnic groups: the Mikea, Vezo, and Merina. Complete mtDNA genome sequencing reveals a new variant of the Polynesian motif in Madagascar; two coding region mutations define a Malagasy-specific sub-branch. This newly defined 'Malagasy motif' occurs at high frequency in all three ethnic groups (13-50%), and its phylogenetic position, geographic distribution, and estimated age all support a recent origin, but without conclusively identifying a specific source region. Nevertheless, the haplotype's limited diversity, similar to those of other mtDNA haplogroups found in our Malagasy groups, best supports a small number of initial settlers arriving to Madagascar through the same migratory process. Finally, the discovery of this lineage provides a set of new polymorphic positions to help localize the Austronesian ancestors of the Malagasy, as well as uncover the origin and evolution of the Polynesian motif itself

ASCORE: an up-to-date cardiovascular risk score for hypertensive patients reflecting contemporary clinical practice developed using the (ASCOT-BPLA) trial data.

A number of risk scores already exist to predict cardiovascular (CV) events. However, scores developed with data collected some time ago might not accurately predict the CV risk of contemporary hypertensive patients that benefit from more modern treatments and management. Using data from the randomised clinical trial Anglo-Scandinavian Cardiac Outcomes Trial-BPLA, with 15 955 hypertensive patients without previous CV disease receiving contemporary preventive CV management, we developed a new risk score predicting the 5-year risk of a first CV event (CV death, myocardial infarction or stroke). Cox proportional hazard models were used to develop a risk equation from baseline predictors. The final risk model (ASCORE) included age, sex, smoking, diabetes, previous blood pressure (BP) treatment, systolic BP, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol, fasting glucose and creatinine baseline variables. A simplified model (ASCORE-S) excluding laboratory variables was also derived. Both models showed very good internal validity. User-friendly integer score tables are reported for both models. Applying the latest Framingham risk score to our data significantly overpredicted the observed 5-year risk of the composite CV outcome. We conclude that risk scores derived using older databases (such as Framingham) may overestimate the CV risk of patients receiving current BP treatments; therefore, 'updated' risk scores are needed for current patients

The preferences of 600 patients for different descriptions of randomisation

A total of 600 patients from cancer centres throughout the UK identified their most preferred and most disliked descriptions of randomisation found in current patient information sheets and websites. The CancerBACUP description, which describes both the process of randomisation and why it is done, was most preferred 151 out of 533 (28%) patients. The NCI description was viewed as overly technical and most disliked 185 out of 483 (38%) patients

Anti-Allergic Cromones Inhibit Histamine and Eicosanoid Release from Activated Human and Murine Mast Cells by Releasing Annexin A1

PMCID: PMC3601088This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited

Survey of the needs of patients with spinal cord injury: impact and priority for improvement in hand function in tetraplegics\ud

Objective: To investigate the impact of upper extremity deficit in subjects with tetraplegia.\ud \ud Setting: The United Kingdom and The Netherlands.\ud \ud Study design: Survey among the members of the Dutch and UK Spinal Cord Injury (SCI) Associations.\ud \ud Main outcome parameter: Indication of expected improvement in quality of life (QOL) on a 5-point scale in relation to improvement in hand function and seven other SCI-related impairments.\ud \ud Results: In all, 565 subjects with tetraplegia returned the questionnaire (overall response of 42%). Results in the Dutch and the UK group were comparable. A total of 77% of the tetraplegics expected an important or very important improvement in QOL if their hand function improved. This is comparable to their expectations with regard to improvement in bladder and bowel function. All other items were scored lower.\ud \ud Conclusion: This is the first study in which the impact of upper extremity impairment has been assessed in a large sample of tetraplegic subjects and compared to other SCI-related impairments that have a major impact on the life of subjects with SCI. The present study indicates a high impact as well as a high priority for improvement in hand function in tetraplegics.\ud \u

Simulated responses of soil carbon to climate change in CMIP6 Earth system models: the role of false priming

This is the final version. Available from Copernicus Publications / European Geosciences Union via the DOI in this record. The CMIP data analysed during this study are available online: CMIP6 (https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/search/cmip6/, last access: 8 April 2022) and CMIP5 (https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/search/cmip5/, last access: 12 April 2022).Code is available on GitHub (https://github.com/rebeccamayvarney/CMIP6_dCs, last access: 28 July 2023).Reliable estimates of soil carbon change are required to determine the carbon budgets consistent with the Paris Agreement climate targets. This study evaluates projections of soil carbon during the 21st century in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) Earth system models (ESMs) under a range of atmospheric composition scenarios. In general, we find a reduced spread of changes in global soil carbon (ΔCs) in CMIP6 compared to the previous CMIP5 model generation. However, similar reductions were not seen in the derived contributions to ΔCs due to both increases in plant net primary productivity (NPP, named ΔCs,NPP) and reductions in the effective soil carbon turnover time (τs, named ΔCs,τ). Instead, we find a strong relationship across the CMIP6 models between these NPP and τs components of ΔCs, with more positive values of ΔCs,NPP being correlated with more negative values of ΔCs,τ. We show that the concept of “false priming” is likely to be contributing to this emergent relationship, which leads to a decrease in the effective soil carbon turnover time as a direct result of NPP increase and occurs when the rate of increase in NPP is relatively fast compared to the slower timescales of a multi-pool soil carbon model. This finding suggests that the structure of soil carbon models within ESMs in CMIP6 has likely contributed towards the reduction in the overall model spread in future soil carbon projections since CMIP5.European Union’s Horizon 2020European Union’s Horizon 202