The sum of small parts: changing landscape fire regimes across multiple small landholdings in north-western Australia with collaborative fire management

Fire is a natural process in tropical savannas, but contemporary cycles of recurrent, extensive, severe fires threaten biodiversity and other values. In northern Australia, prescribed burning to reduce wildfire incidence is incentivised through a regulated emissions abatement program. However, only certain vegetation types are eligible; also, managers of small land parcels are disadvantaged by the program's transaction costs and interannual variability in management outcomes. Both impediments apply to landholders of the Dampier Peninsula, north-west Australia. Nevertheless, Indigenous rangers, pastoralists and other stakeholders have collaborated for 5 years to manage fire across their small holdings (300-2060 km(2)). We used remote sensing imagery to examine the project's performance against seven fire regime targets related to biodiversity, cultural and pastoral values. At the scale both of individual landholders and the entire Peninsula (18 500 km(2)), the project significantly reduced the extent of annual fire, high-severity fire, mid-late dry season fire, fire frequency and severe fire frequency. The project significantly increased the graininess of burnt and unburnt areas and the extent unburnt for 3+ years more than tripled. The project demonstrates that cross-tenure collaboration can overcome the challenges of managing fire on small land parcels. However, this project's sustainability depends on securing ongoing funding

Symmetry Energy I: Semi-Infinite Matter

Energy for a nucleus is considered in macroscopic limit, in terms of nucleon numbers. Further considered for a nuclear system is the Hohenberg-Kohn energy functional, in terms of proton and neutron densities. Finally, Skyrme-Hartree-Fock calculations are carried out for a half-infinite particle-stable nuclear-matter. In each case, the attention is focused on the role of neutron-proton asymmetry and on the nuclear symmetry energy. We extend the considerations on the symmetry term from an energy formula to the respective term in the Hohenberg-Kohn functional. We show, in particular, that in the limit of an analytic functional, and subject to possible Coulomb corrections, it is possible to construct isoscalar and isovector densities out of the proton and neutron densities, that retain a universal relation to each other, approximately independent of asymmetry. In the so-called local approximation, the isovector density is inversely proportional to the symmetry energy in uniform matter at the local isoscalar density. Generalized symmetry coefficient of a nuclear system is related, in the analytic limit of a functional, to an integral of the isovector density. We test the relations, inferred from the Hohenberg-Kohn functional, in the Skyrme-Hartree-Fock calculations of half-infinite matter. Within the calculations, we obtain surface symmetry coefficients and parameters characterizing the densities, for the majority of Skyrme parameterizations proposed in the literature. The volume-to-surface symmetry-coefficient ratio and the displacement of nuclear isovector relative to isoscalar surfaces both strongly increase as the slope of symmetry energy in the vicinity of normal density increases.Comment: 87 pages, 18 figures; discussion of Kohn-Sham method added, comparison to results in literature broadene

The “Outcome Reporting in Brief Intervention Trials: Alcohol” (ORBITAL) core outcome set:International consensus on outcomes to measure in efficacy and effectiveness Trials of alcohol brief interventions

Objective: The purpose of this study was to report the “Outcome Reporting in Brief Intervention Trials: Alcohol” (ORBITAL) recommended core outcome set (COS) to improve efficacy and effectiveness trials/evaluations for alcohol brief interventions (ABIs). Method: A systematic review identified 2,641 outcomes in 401 ABI articles measured by 1,560 different approaches. These outcomes were classified into outcome categories, and 150 participants from 19 countries participated in a two-round e-Delphi outcome prioritization exercise. This process prioritized 15 of 93 outcome categories for discussion at a consensus meeting of key stakeholders to decide the COS. A psychometric evaluation determined how to measure the outcomes. Results: Ten outcomes were voted into the COS at the consensus meeting: (a) typical frequency, (b) typical quantity, (c) frequency of heavy episodic drinking, (d) combined consumption measure summarizing alcohol use, (e) hazardous or harmful drinking (average consumption), (f) standard drinks consumed in the past week (recent, current consumption), (g) alcohol-related consequences, (h) alcohol-related injury, (i) use of emergency health care services (impact of alcohol use), and (j) quality of life. Conclusions: The ORBITAL COS is an international consensus standard for future ABI trials and evaluations. It can improve the synthesis of new findings, reduce redundant/selective reporting (i.e., reporting only some, usually significant outcomes), improve between-study comparisons, and enhance the relevance of trial and evaluation findings to decision makers. The COS is the recommended minimum and does not exclude other, additional outcomes

Evaluating the Effects of SARS-CoV-2 Spike Mutation D614G on Transmissibility and Pathogenicity.

Global dispersal and increasing frequency of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein variant D614G are suggestive of a selective advantage but may also be due to a random founder effect. We investigate the hypothesis for positive selection of spike D614G in the United Kingdom using more than 25,000 whole genome SARS-CoV-2 sequences. Despite the availability of a large dataset, well represented by both spike 614 variants, not all approaches showed a conclusive signal of positive selection. Population genetic analysis indicates that 614G increases in frequency relative to 614D in a manner consistent with a selective advantage. We do not find any indication that patients infected with the spike 614G variant have higher COVID-19 mortality or clinical severity, but 614G is associated with higher viral load and younger age of patients. Significant differences in growth and size of 614G phylogenetic clusters indicate a need for continued study of this variant

Hospital admission and emergency care attendance risk for SARS-CoV-2 delta (B.1.617.2) compared with alpha (B.1.1.7) variants of concern: a cohort study

Background: The SARS-CoV-2 delta (B.1.617.2) variant was first detected in England in March, 2021. It has since rapidly become the predominant lineage, owing to high transmissibility. It is suspected that the delta variant is associated with more severe disease than the previously dominant alpha (B.1.1.7) variant. We aimed to characterise the severity of the delta variant compared with the alpha variant by determining the relative risk of hospital attendance outcomes. Methods: This cohort study was done among all patients with COVID-19 in England between March 29 and May 23, 2021, who were identified as being infected with either the alpha or delta SARS-CoV-2 variant through whole-genome sequencing. Individual-level data on these patients were linked to routine health-care datasets on vaccination, emergency care attendance, hospital admission, and mortality (data from Public Health England's Second Generation Surveillance System and COVID-19-associated deaths dataset; the National Immunisation Management System; and NHS Digital Secondary Uses Services and Emergency Care Data Set). The risk for hospital admission and emergency care attendance were compared between patients with sequencing-confirmed delta and alpha variants for the whole cohort and by vaccination status subgroups. Stratified Cox regression was used to adjust for age, sex, ethnicity, deprivation, recent international travel, area of residence, calendar week, and vaccination status. Findings: Individual-level data on 43 338 COVID-19-positive patients (8682 with the delta variant, 34 656 with the alpha variant; median age 31 years [IQR 17–43]) were included in our analysis. 196 (2·3%) patients with the delta variant versus 764 (2·2%) patients with the alpha variant were admitted to hospital within 14 days after the specimen was taken (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 2·26 [95% CI 1·32–3·89]). 498 (5·7%) patients with the delta variant versus 1448 (4·2%) patients with the alpha variant were admitted to hospital or attended emergency care within 14 days (adjusted HR 1·45 [1·08–1·95]). Most patients were unvaccinated (32 078 [74·0%] across both groups). The HRs for vaccinated patients with the delta variant versus the alpha variant (adjusted HR for hospital admission 1·94 [95% CI 0·47–8·05] and for hospital admission or emergency care attendance 1·58 [0·69–3·61]) were similar to the HRs for unvaccinated patients (2·32 [1·29–4·16] and 1·43 [1·04–1·97]; p=0·82 for both) but the precision for the vaccinated subgroup was low. Interpretation: This large national study found a higher hospital admission or emergency care attendance risk for patients with COVID-19 infected with the delta variant compared with the alpha variant. Results suggest that outbreaks of the delta variant in unvaccinated populations might lead to a greater burden on health-care services than the alpha variant. Funding: Medical Research Council; UK Research and Innovation; Department of Health and Social Care; and National Institute for Health Research

Changes in symptomatology, reinfection, and transmissibility associated with the SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.1.7: an ecological study

Background The SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.1.7 was first identified in December, 2020, in England. We aimed to investigate whether increases in the proportion of infections with this variant are associated with differences in symptoms or disease course, reinfection rates, or transmissibility. Methods We did an ecological study to examine the association between the regional proportion of infections with the SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 variant and reported symptoms, disease course, rates of reinfection, and transmissibility. Data on types and duration of symptoms were obtained from longitudinal reports from users of the COVID Symptom Study app who reported a positive test for COVID-19 between Sept 28 and Dec 27, 2020 (during which the prevalence of B.1.1.7 increased most notably in parts of the UK). From this dataset, we also estimated the frequency of possible reinfection, defined as the presence of two reported positive tests separated by more than 90 days with a period of reporting no symptoms for more than 7 days before the second positive test. The proportion of SARS-CoV-2 infections with the B.1.1.7 variant across the UK was estimated with use of genomic data from the COVID-19 Genomics UK Consortium and data from Public Health England on spike-gene target failure (a non-specific indicator of the B.1.1.7 variant) in community cases in England. We used linear regression to examine the association between reported symptoms and proportion of B.1.1.7. We assessed the Spearman correlation between the proportion of B.1.1.7 cases and number of reinfections over time, and between the number of positive tests and reinfections. We estimated incidence for B.1.1.7 and previous variants, and compared the effective reproduction number, Rt, for the two incidence estimates. Findings From Sept 28 to Dec 27, 2020, positive COVID-19 tests were reported by 36 920 COVID Symptom Study app users whose region was known and who reported as healthy on app sign-up. We found no changes in reported symptoms or disease duration associated with B.1.1.7. For the same period, possible reinfections were identified in 249 (0·7% [95% CI 0·6–0·8]) of 36 509 app users who reported a positive swab test before Oct 1, 2020, but there was no evidence that the frequency of reinfections was higher for the B.1.1.7 variant than for pre-existing variants. Reinfection occurrences were more positively correlated with the overall regional rise in cases (Spearman correlation 0·56–0·69 for South East, London, and East of England) than with the regional increase in the proportion of infections with the B.1.1.7 variant (Spearman correlation 0·38–0·56 in the same regions), suggesting B.1.1.7 does not substantially alter the risk of reinfection. We found a multiplicative increase in the Rt of B.1.1.7 by a factor of 1·35 (95% CI 1·02–1·69) relative to pre-existing variants. However, Rt fell below 1 during regional and national lockdowns, even in regions with high proportions of infections with the B.1.1.7 variant. Interpretation The lack of change in symptoms identified in this study indicates that existing testing and surveillance infrastructure do not need to change specifically for the B.1.1.7 variant. In addition, given that there was no apparent increase in the reinfection rate, vaccines are likely to remain effective against the B.1.1.7 variant. Funding Zoe Global, Department of Health (UK), Wellcome Trust, Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (UK), National Institute for Health Research (UK), Medical Research Council (UK), Alzheimer's Society

Genomic assessment of quarantine measures to prevent SARS-CoV-2 importation and transmission

Mitigation of SARS-CoV-2 transmission from international travel is a priority. We evaluated the effectiveness of travellers being required to quarantine for 14-days on return to England in Summer 2020. We identified 4,207 travel-related SARS-CoV-2 cases and their contacts, and identified 827 associated SARS-CoV-2 genomes. Overall, quarantine was associated with a lower rate of contacts, and the impact of quarantine was greatest in the 16–20 age-group. 186 SARS-CoV-2 genomes were sufficiently unique to identify travel-related clusters. Fewer genomically-linked cases were observed for index cases who returned from countries with quarantine requirement compared to countries with no quarantine requirement. This difference was explained by fewer importation events per identified genome for these cases, as opposed to fewer onward contacts per case. Overall, our study demonstrates that a 14-day quarantine period reduces, but does not completely eliminate, the onward transmission of imported cases, mainly by dissuading travel to countries with a quarantine requirement

Evaluating the Effects of SARS-CoV-2 Spike Mutation D614G on Transmissibility and Pathogenicity

Global dispersal and increasing frequency of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein variant D614G are suggestive of a selective advantage but may also be due to a random founder effect. We investigate the hypothesis for positive selection of spike D614G in the United Kingdom using more than 25,000 whole genome SARS-CoV-2 sequences. Despite the availability of a large dataset, well represented by both spike 614 variants, not all approaches showed a conclusive signal of positive selection. Population genetic analysis indicates that 614G increases in frequency relative to 614D in a manner consistent with a selective advantage. We do not find any indication that patients infected with the spike 614G variant have higher COVID-19 mortality or clinical severity, but 614G is associated with higher viral load and younger age of patients. Significant differences in growth and size of 614G phylogenetic clusters indicate a need for continued study of this variant