Complexity in forecasting and predictive models

Te challenge of this special issue has been to know the state of the problem related to forecasting modeling and the creation of a model to forecast the future behavior that supports decision making by supporting real-world applications. Tis issue has been highlighted by the quality of its research work on the critical importance of advanced analytical methods, such as neural networks, sof computing, evolutionary algorithms, chaotic models, cellular automata, agent-based models, and fnite mixture minimum squares (FIMIX-PLS).info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

The possible importance of synchrotron/inverse Compton losses to explain fast mm-wave and hard X-ray emission of a solar event

The solar burst of 21 May 1984, presented a number of unique features. The time profile consisted of seven major structures (seconds), with a turnover frequency of greater than or approximately 90 GHz, well correlated in time to hard X-ray emission. Each structure consisted of multiple fast pulses (0.1 seconds), which were analyzed in detail. A proportionality between the repetition rate of the pulses and the burst fluxes at 90 GHz and greater than or approximately 100 keV hard X-rays, and an inverse proportionality between repetition rates and hard X-ray power law indices were found. A synchrotron/inverse Compton model was applied to explain the emission of the fast burst structures, which appear to be possible for the first three or four structures

The possible importance of synchrotron/inverse Compton losses to explain fast MM-wave and hard X-ray emission of a solar event

The solar burst of 21 May 1984 presented a number of unique features. The time profile consisted of seven major structures (seconds), with a turnover frequency or approx. 90 GHz, well correlated in time to hard X-ray emission. Each structure consisted of multiple fast pulses (.1 seconds), which were analyzed in detail. A proportionality between the repetition rate of the pulses and the burst fluxes at 90 GHz and or approx. 100 keV hard X-rays, and an inverse proportionality between repetition rates and hard X-rays power law indices have been found. A synchrotron/inverse Compton model has been applied to explain the emission of the fast burst structures, which appear to be possible for the first three or four structures

Beyond the operating room: do hospital characteristics have an impact on surgical site infections after colorectal surgery? A systematic review

Background: Hospital characteristics have been recognized as potential risk factors for surgical site infection for over 20 years. However, most research has focused on patient and procedural risk factors. Understanding how structural and process variables influence infection is vital to identify targets for effective interventions and to optimize healthcare services. The aim of this study was to systematically review the association between hospital characteristics and surgical site infection in colorectal surgery. Main body: A systematic literature search was conducted using PubMed, Scopus and Web of Science databases until the 31st of May, 2021. The search strategy followed the Participants, Exposure/Intervention, Comparison, Outcomes and Study design. The primary outcome of interest was surgical site infection rate after colorectal surgery. Studies were grouped into nine risk factor typologies: hospital size, ownership affiliation, being an oncological hospital, safety-net burden, hospital volume, surgeon caseload, discharge destination and time since implementation of surveillance. The STROBE statement was used for evaluating the methodological quality. A total of 4703 records were identified, of which 172 were reviewed and 16 were included. Studies were published between 2008 and 2021, and referred to data collected between 1996 and 2016. Surgical site infection incidence ranged from 3.2 to 27.6%. Two out of five studies evaluating hospital size adjusted the analysis to patient and procedure-related risk factors, and showed that larger hospitals were either positively associated or had no association with SSI. Public hospitals did not present significantly different infection rates than private or non-profit ones. Medical school affiliation and higher safety-net burden were associated with higher surgical site infection (crude estimates), while oncological hospitals were associated with higher incidence independently of other variables. Hospital caseload showed mixed results, while surgeon caseload and surveillance time since implementation appear to be associated with fewer infections. Conclusions: Although there are few studies addressing hospital-level factors on surgical site infection, surgeon experience and the implementation of a surveillance system appear to be associated with better outcomes. For hospitals and services to be efficiently optimized, more studies addressing these variables are needed that take into account the confounding effect of patient case mix.The Epidemiology Research Unit (EPIUnit, Unidade de Investigação em Epidemiologia—Instituto de Saúde Pública da Universidade do Porto) is funded by the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (POCI-01-0145-FEDER-006862; Ref. ()

A new class of solar burst with MM-wave emission but only at the highest frequency (90 GHz)

High sensitivity and high time resolution solar observations at 90 GHz (lambda = 3.3 mm) have identified a unique impulsive burst on May 21, 1984 with emission that was more intense at this frequency than at lower frequencies. The first major time structure of the burst was over 10 times more intense at 90 GHz than at 30 GHz, 7 GHz, or 2.8 GHz.Only 6 seconds later, the 30 GHz impulsive structures started to be observed but still with lower intensity than at 90 GHz. Hard X-ray time structures at energies above 25 keV were almost identical to the 90 GHZ structures (to better than one second). All 90 GHz major time structures consisted of trains of multiple subsecond pulses with rise times as short as 0.03 sec and amplitudes large compared to the mean flux. When detectable, the 30 GHz subsecond pulses had smaller relative amplitude and were in phase with the corresponding 90 GHz pulses

Multiple energetic injections in a strong spike-like solar burst

An intense and fast spike-like solar burst was built up of short time scale structures superimposed on an underlying gradual emission, the time evolution of which shows remarkable proportionality between hard X-ray and microwave fluxes. The finer time structure were best defined at mm-microwaves. At the peak of the event, the finer structures repeat every 30x60ms. The more slowly varying component with a time scale of about 1 second was identified in microwave hard X-rays throughout the burst duration. It is suggested that X-ray fluxes might also be proportional to the repetition rate of basic units of energy injection (quasi-quantized). The relevant parameters of one primary energy release site are estimated both in the case where hard X-rays are produced primarily by thick-target bremsstrahlung, and when they are purely thermal. The relation of this figure to global energy considerations is discussed

Common damages and recommendations for the seismic retrofitting of vernacular dwellings

This closure chapter acknowledges the most common retrofitting elements and measures identified in vernacular architecture. It enhances common systematic structural damage and failure mechanisms during earthquakes, relating them with probable causes, and establishing general recommend ations to consider in preventive and reactive actions. Also, recommendations for the design and detailing of new construction in prone earthquake areas are advancedPortuguese Science and Technology Foundation (FCT) to the research project ‘SEISMIC - V – Vernacular Seismic Culture in Portugal’ (PTDC/ATP - AQI/ 3934/2012

Light with tunable non-Markovian phase imprint

We introduce a simple and flexible method to generate spatially non-Markovian light with tunable coherence properties in one and two dimensions. The unusual behavior of this light is demonstrated experimentally by probing the far field and recording its diffraction pattern after a double slit: In both cases we observe instead of a central intensity maximum a line or cross shaped dark region, whose width and profile depend on the non-Markovian coherence properties. Since these properties can be controlled and easily reproduced in experiment, the presented approach lends itself to serve as a testbed to gain a deeper understanding of non-Markovian processes