Quantifying simulator discrepancy in discrete-time dynamical simulators

When making predictions with complex simulators it can be important to quantify the various sources of uncertainty. Errors in the structural specification of the simulator, for example due to missing processes or incorrect mathematical specification, can be a major source of uncertainty, but are often ignored. We introduce a methodology for inferring the discrepancy between the simulator and the system in discrete-time dynamical simulators. We assume a structural form for the discrepancy function, and show how to infer the maximum likelihood parameter estimates using a particle filter embedded within a Monte Carlo expectation maximization (MCEM) algorithm. We illustrate the method on a conceptual rainfall runoff simulator (logSPM) used to model the Abercrombie catchment in Australia. We assess the simulator and discrepancy model on the basis of their predictive performance using proper scoring rules

Modelling frontal discontinuities in wind fields

A Bayesian procedure for the retrieval of wind vectors over the ocean using satellite borne scatterometers requires realistic prior near-surface wind field models over the oceans. We have implemented carefully chosen vector Gaussian Process models; however in some cases these models are too smooth to reproduce real atmospheric features, such as fronts. At the scale of the scatterometer observations, fronts appear as discontinuities in wind direction. Due to the nature of the retrieval problem a simple discontinuity model is not feasible, and hence we have developed a constrained discontinuity vector Gaussian Process model which ensures realistic fronts. We describe the generative model and show how to compute the data likelihood given the model. We show the results of inference using the model with Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods on both synthetic and real data

Mapping Antarctic crevasses and their evolution with deep learning applied to satellite radar imagery

The fracturing of glaciers and ice shelves in Antarctica influences their dynamics and stability. Hence, data on the evolving distribution of crevasses are required to better understand the evolution of the ice sheet, though such data have traditionally been difficult and time-consuming to generate. Here, we present an automated method of mapping crevasses on grounded and floating ice with the application of convolutional neural networks to Sentinel-1 synthetic aperture radar backscatter data. We apply this method across Antarctica to images acquired between 2015 and 2022, producing a 7.5-year record of composite fracture maps at monthly intervals and 50 m spatial resolution and showing the distribution of crevasses around the majority of the ice sheet margin. We develop a method of quantifying changes to the density of ice shelf fractures using a time series of crevasse maps and show increases in crevassing on Thwaites and Pine Island ice shelves over the observational period, with observed changes elsewhere in the Amundsen Sea dominated by the advection of existing crevasses. Using stress fields computed using the BISICLES ice sheet model, we show that much of this structural change has occurred in buttressing regions of these ice shelves, indicating a recent and ongoing link between fracturing and the developing dynamics of the Amundsen Sea sector.</p

Adaptive mesh refinement versus subgrid friction interpolation in simulations of Antarctic ice dynamics

Geophysical Research Letters

Time-resolved sign-dependent switching in a hybrid aligned nematic liquid crystal cell

Copyright © 2008 IOP Publishing Ltd and Deutsche Physikalische Gesellschaft. This is the published version of an article published in New Journal of Physics Vol. 10, article 083045. DOI: 10.1088/1367-2630/10/8/083045An optical waveguide technique is used to determine the director tilt profile across a hybrid aligned nematic (HAN) liquid crystal cell, in which the optical response is dependent on the sign of the applied voltage. Two physical models are shown that fit the equilibrium experimental data, but with alternative explanations for this sign dependence. Models with either a flexoelectric coefficient of 2.25×10−11 C m−1 or a bound surface charge of 12.2 μC m−2 are shown that fit this equilibrium data. In an attempt to resolve this degeneracy sign-dependent switching data are analysed. However, neither model can explain these switching data, which are affected by slow transients of ~100 ms which are believed to be due to the motion of free ions in the liquid crystal. From the form of these slow transients, it is suggested that the equilibrium position of the ions is next to a cell substrate

A survey of primary and specialised health care provision to prisons in England and Wales

Background Prison health care in England, including primary care, is now incorporated into the National Health Service; the impetus for the change is in part due to concern about standards of health care within prisons. The demographic characteristics and health status of patients within prisons are relatively well understood, as are the problems faced by health care professionals. Less is known about current health care provision. Aims To describe the organisation of primary health care and specialised services in prisons and compare services available to different types of prison. Method A piloted questionnaire was sent to the governors of all prisons in England and Wales for completion by the health care manager. Findings Completed questionnaires were received from 122 (89%) of 138 prisons. The survey showed a low use of information technology (IT). Problems were reported with the recruitment and retention of general nurses in more than 50% of prisons. Prisoners in category A/B (higher security) prisons had available to them a greater range of health care services compared with those in other prisons. The results suggest that provision of services for chronic diseases and improvements in IT are needed. Problems with the recruitment and retention of general nurses need addressing. The reasons why lower-security prisoners are receiving a narrower range of specialised health care services compared with higher-security prisoners need justifying

Impact of ocean forcing on the Aurora Basin in the 21st and 22nd centuries

The grounded ice in the Totten and Dalton glaciers is an essential component of the buttressing for the marine-based Aurora basin, and hence their stability is important to the future rate of mass loss from East Antarctica. Totten and Vanderford glaciers are joined by a deep east-west running subglacial trench between the continental ice sheet and Law Dome, while a shallower trench links the Totten and Dalton glaciers. All three glaciers flow into the ocean close to the Antarctic circle and experience ocean-driven ice shelf melt rates comparable with the Amundsen Sea Embayment. We investigate this combination of trenches and ice shelves with the BISICLES adaptive mesh ice-sheet model and ocean-forcing melt rates derived from two global climate models. We find that ice shelf ablation at a rate comparable with the present day is sufficient to cause widespread grounding line retreat in an east-west direction across Totten and Dalton glaciers, with projected future warming causing faster retreat. Meanwhile, southward retreat is limited by the shallower ocean facing slopes between the coast and the bulk of the Aurora sub-glacial trench. However the two climate models produce completely different future ice shelf basal melt rates in this region: HadCM3 drives increasing sub-ice shelf melting to ~2150, while ECHAM5 shows little or no increase in sub-ice shelf melting under the two greenhouse gas forcing scenarios

Mechanism of age-dependent susceptibility and novel treatment strategy in glutaric acidemia type I

Glutaric acidemia type I (GA-I) is an inherited disorder of lysine and tryptophan metabolism presenting with striatal lesions anatomically and symptomatically similar to Huntington disease. Affected children commonly suffer acute brain injury in the context of a catabolic state associated with nonspecific illness. The mechanisms underlying injury and age-dependent susceptibility have been unknown, and lack of a diagnostic marker heralding brain injury has impeded intervention efforts. Using a mouse model of GA-I, we show that pathologic events began in the neuronal compartment while enhanced lysine accumulation in the immature brain allowed increased glutaric acid production resulting in age-dependent injury. Glutamate and GABA depletion correlated with brain glutaric acid accumulation and could be monitored in vivo by proton nuclear magnetic resonance (1H NMR) spectroscopy as a diagnostic marker. Blocking brain lysine uptake reduced glutaric acid levels and brain injury. These findings provide what we believe are new monitoring and treatment strategies that may translate for use in human GA-I