Individual variation in susceptibility or exposure to SARS-CoV-2 lowers the herd immunity threshold

Individual variation in susceptibility and exposure is subject to selection by natural infection, accelerating the acquisition of immunity, and reducing herd immunity thresholds and epidemic final sizes. This is a manifestation of a wider population phenomenon known as “frailty variation”. Despite theoretical understanding, public health policies continue to be guided by mathematical models that leave out considerable variation and as a result inflate projected disease burdens and overestimate the impact of interventions. Here we focus on trajectories of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic in England and Scotland until November 2021. We fit models to series of daily deaths and infer relevant epidemiological parameters, including coefficients of variation and effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions which we find in agreement with independent empirical estimates based on contact surveys. Our estimates are robust to whether the analysed data series encompass one or two pandemic waves and enable projections compatible with subsequent dynamics. We conclude that vaccination programmes may have contributed modestly to the acquisition of herd immunity in populations with high levels of pre-existing naturally acquired immunity, while being crucial to protect vulnerable individuals from severe outcomes as the virus becomes endemic

Children’s sedentary behaviour: descriptive epidemiology and associations with objectively-measured sedentary time

Background: Little is known regarding the patterning and socio-demographic distribution of multiple sedentary behaviours in children. The aims of this study were to: 1) describe the leisure-time sedentary behaviour of 9-10 year old British children, and 2) establish associations with objectively-measured sedentary time. Methods: Cross-sectional analysis in the SPEEDY study (Sport, Physical activity and Eating behaviour: Environmental Determinants in Young people) (N=1513, 44.3% boys). Twelve leisure-time sedentary behaviours were assessed by questionnaire. Objectively-measured leisure-time sedentary time (Actigraph GT1M, <100 counts/minute) was assessed over 7 days. Differences by sex and socioeconomic status (SES) in self-reported sedentary behaviours were tested using Kruskal-Wallis tests. The association between objectively-measured sedentary time and the separate sedentary behaviours (continuous (minutes) and categorised into 'none' 'low' or 'high' participation) was assessed using multi-level linear regression. Results: Sex differences were observed for time spent in most sedentary behaviours (all p ≤ 0.02), except computer use. Girls spent more time in combined non-screen sedentary behaviour (median, interquartile range: girls: 770.0 minutes, 390.0-1230.0; boys: 725.0, 365.0 - 1182.5; p = 0.003), whereas boys spent more time in screen-based behaviours (girls: 540.0, 273.0 - 1050.0; boys: 885.0, 502.5 - 1665.0; p < 0.001). Time spent in five non-screen behaviours differed by SES, with higher values in those of higher SES (all p ≤ 0.001). Regression analyses with continuous exposures indicated that reading (β = 0.1, p < 0.001) and watching television (β = 0.04, p < 0.01) were positively associated with objectively-measured sedentary time, whilst playing board games (β = -0.12, p < 0.05) was negatively associated. Analysed in categorical form, sitting and talking (vs. none: 'low' β = 26.1,ns; 'high' 30.9, p < 0.05), playing video games (vs. none: 'low' β = 49.1, p < 0.01; 'high' 60.2, p < 0.01) and watching television (vs. lowest tertile: middle β = 22.2,ns; highest β = 31.9, p < 0.05) were positively associated with objectively-measured sedentary time whereas talking on the phone (vs. none: 'low' β = -38.5, p < 0.01; 'high' -60.2, p < 0.01) and using a computer/internet (vs. none: 'low' β = -30.7, p < 0.05; 'high' -4.2,ns) were negatively associated. Conclusions: Boys and girls and children of different socioeconomic backgrounds engage in different leisure-time sedentary behaviours. Whilst a number of behaviours may be predictive of total sedentary time, collectively they explain little overall variance. Future studies should consider a wide range of sedentary behaviours and incorporate objective measures to quantify sedentary time where possible

Does Birth Weight Influence Physical Activity in Youth? A Combined Analysis of Four Studies Using Objectively Measured Physical Activity

Animal models suggest growth restriction in utero leads to lower levels of motor activity. Furthermore, individuals with very low birth weight report lower levels of physical activity as adults. The aim of this study was to examine whether birth weight acts as a biological determinant of physical activity and sedentary time. This study uses combined analysis of three European cohorts and one from South America (n = 4,170). Birth weight was measured or parentally reported. Height and weight were measured and used to calculate Body Mass Index (BMI). PA was objectively measured using accelerometry for ≥3 days, ≥10 hours day. Data was standardized to allow comparisons between different monitors. Total physical activity was assessed as counts per minute (cpm), with time spent above moderate activity (MVPA) >2,000 counts and time spent sedentary (<100 counts). There was no evidence for an association between birth weight and total physical activity (p = 0.9) or MVPA (p = 0.7). Overall there was no evidence for an association between birth weight and sedentary time (p = 0.8). However in the Pelotas study we did find an association between higher birth weight (kg) and lower overall physical activity (cpm) (β = −31, 95%CI: −58, −46, p = 0.03) and higher birth weight and greater sedentary time (mins/day) (β = 16.4, 95%CI: 5.3, 27.5, p = 0.004), although this was attenuated and no longer significant with further adjustment for gestational age. Overall this combined analysis suggests that birth weight may not be an important biological determinant of habitual physical activity or sedentary behaviour in children and adolescents

Cardiorespiratory fitness is associated with hard and light intensity physical activity but not time spent sedentary in 10–14 year old schoolchildren: the HAPPY study

Sedentary behaviour is a major risk factor for developing chronic diseases and is associated with low cardiorespiratory fitness in adults. It remains unclear how sedentary behaviour and different physical activity subcomponents are related to cardiorespiratory fitness in children. The purpose of this study was to assess how sedentary behaviour and different physical activity subcomponents are associated with 10–14 year-old schoolchildren's cardiorespiratory fitness

Functional correlates of Apolipoprotein E genotype in Frontotemporal Lobar Degeneration

BACKGROUND: It has been recently demonstrated that in Frontotemporal Lobar Degeneration (FTLD) memory deficits at presentation are commoner than previously thought. Apolipoprotein E (ApoE) genotype, the major genetic risk factor in sporadic late-onset Alzheimer Disease (AD), modulates cerebral perfusion in late middle-age cognitively normal subjects. ApoE ε4 homozygous have reduced glucose metabolism in the same regions involved in AD. The aim of this study was to determine whether ApoE genotype might play a key-role in influencing the cerebral functional pattern as well as the degree of memory deficits in FTLD patients. METHODS: Fifty-two unrelated FTLD patients entered the study and underwent a somatic and neurological evaluation, laboratory examinations, a brain structural imaging study, and a brain functional Single Photon Emission Tomography study. ApoE genotype was determined. RESULTS: ApoE genotype influenced both clinical and functional features in FTLD. ApoE ε4-carriers were more impaired in long-term memory function (ApoE ε4 vs. ApoE non ε4, 6.3 ± 3.9 vs. 10.1 ± 4.2, p = 0.004) and more hypoperfused in uncus and parahippocampal regions (x,y,z = 38,-6,-20, T = 2.82, cluster size = 100 voxels; -32,-12,-28, T= 2.77, cluster size = 40 voxels). CONCLUSION: The present findings support the view that ApoE genotype might be considered a disease-modifying factor in FTLD, thus contributing to define a specific clinical presentation, and might be of relevance for pharmacological approaches

Longer Leukocyte Telomere Length Is Associated with Smaller Hippocampal Volume among Non-Demented APOE ε3/ε3 Subjects

Telomere length shortens with cellular division, and leukocyte telomere length is used as a marker for systemic telomere length. The hippocampus hosts adult neurogenesis and is an important structure for episodic memory, and carriers of the apolipoprotein E ε4 allele exhibit higher hippocampal atrophy rates and differing telomere dynamics compared with non-carriers. The authors investigated whether leukocyte telomere length was associated with hippocampal volume in 57 cognitively intact subjects (29 ε3/ε3 carriers; 28 ε4 carriers) aged 49–79 yr. Leukocyte telomere length correlated inversely with left (rs = −0.465; p = 0.011), right (rs = −0.414; p = 0.025), and total hippocampus volume (rs = −0.519; p = 0.004) among APOE ε3/ε3 carriers, but not among ε4 carriers. However, the ε4 carriers fit with the general correlation pattern exhibited by the ε3/ε3 carriers, as ε4 carriers on average had longer telomeres and smaller hippocampi compared with ε3/ε3 carriers. The relationship observed can be interpreted as long telomeres representing a history of relatively low cellular proliferation, reflected in smaller hippocampal volumes. The results support the potential of leukocyte telomere length being used as a biomarker for tapping functional and structural processes of the aging brain

Parent and child physical activity and sedentary time: Do active parents foster active children?

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Physical activity has many positive effects on children's health while TV viewing has been associated with adverse health outcomes. Many children do not meet physical activity recommendations and exceed TV viewing guidelines. Parents are likely to be an important influence on their children's behaviour. There is an absence of information about the associations between parents' and children's physical activity and TV viewing.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Year 6 children and their parent were recruited from 40 primary schools. Results are presented for the 340 parent-child dyads with accelerometer data that met a ≥ 3 day inclusion criteria and the 431 parent-child dyads with complete self-reported TV viewing. Over 80% of the dyads with valid TV viewing data included mothers and their child. Mean minutes of moderate to vigorous physical activity (MVPA), minutes of sedentary time per day and counts per minute were assessed by accelerometer. Self-reported hours of TV viewing were coded into 3 groups (< 2 hours per day, 2-4 hours per day and >4 hours per day. Linear and multi-nominal regression models were run by child gender to examine parent-child associations.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In linear regression models there was an association for the overall sedentary time of girls and their parents (t = 2.04. p = .020) but there was no association between girls' and parents' physical activity. There were no associations between parents' and boys' sedentary or physical activity time. For girls, the risk of watching more than 4 hours of TV per day, (reference = 2 hours of TV per day), was 3.67 times higher if the girl's parent watched 2-4 hours of TV per day (p = 0.037). For boys, the risk of watching more than 4 hours of TV per day, was 10.47 times higher if the boy's parent watched more than 4 hours of TV per day (p = 0.038).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>There are associations in the sedentary time of parents and daughters. Higher parental TV viewing was associated with an increased risk of high levels of TV viewing for both boys and girls. There were no associations between the time that parents and children spend engaged in physical activity.</p

APOE ε4 lowers age at onset and is a high risk factor for Alzheimer's disease; A case control study from central Norway

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The objective of this study was to analyze factors influencing the risk and timing of Alzheimer's disease (AD) in central Norway. The <it>APOE </it>ε4 allele is the only consistently identified risk factor for late onset Alzheimer's disease (LOAD). We have described the allele frequencies of the apolipoprotein E gene (<it>APOE</it>) in a large population of patients with AD compared to the frequencies in a cognitively-normal control group, and estimated the effect of the <it>APOE </it>ε4 allele on the risk and the age at onset of AD in this population.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>376 patients diagnosed with AD and 561 cognitively-normal control individuals with no known first degree relatives with dementia were genotyped for the <it>APOE </it>alleles. Allele frequencies and genotypes in patients and control individuals were compared. Odds Ratio for developing AD in different genotypes was calculated.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Odds Ratio (OR) for developing AD was significantly increased in carriers of the <it>APOE </it>ε4 allele compared to individuals with the <it>APOE </it>ε3/ε3 genotype. Individuals carrying <it>APOE </it>ε4/ε4 had OR of 12.9 for developing AD, while carriers of <it>APOE </it>ε2/ε4 and <it>APOE </it>ε3/ε4 had OR of 3.2 and 4.2 respectively. The effect of the <it>APOE </it>ε4 allele was weaker with increasing age. Carrying the <it>APOE </it>ε2 allele showed no significant protective effect against AD and did not influence age at onset of the disease. Onset in LOAD patients was significantly reduced in a dose dependent manner from 78.4 years in patients without the <it>APOE </it>ε4 allele, to 75.3 in carriers of one <it>APOE </it>ε4 allele and 72.9 in carriers of two <it>APOE </it>ε4 alleles. Age at onset in early onset AD (EOAD) was not influenced by <it>APOE </it>ε4 alleles.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p><it>APOE </it>ε4 is a very strong risk factor for AD in the population of central Norway, and lowers age at onset of LOAD significantly.</p

Prevalence and Determinants of Metabolic Syndrome among Women in Chinese Rural Areas

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Metabolic syndrome (MS) is prevalent in recent years but few data is reported in the rural areas in China. The aim of this study was to examine MS prevalence and its risk factors among women in rural China. METHODS AND RESULTS: The Nantong Metabolic Syndrome Study (NMSS), a population based cross-sectional study, was conducted during 2007-2008 in Nantong, China. In person interviews, blood glucose and lipid measurements were completed for 13,505 female participants aged 18-74 years. The International Diabetes Federation (IDF), the US Third Report of the National Cholesterol Education Program, the Adult Treatment Panel (ATPIII) and modified ATPIII for Asian population has determined three criteria of MS. These criteria for MS were used and compared in this study. The prevalence of MS was 22.0%, 16.9% and 23.3% according to IDF, ATPIII and ATPIII-modified criteria, respectively. Levels of agreement of these criteria for MS were above 0.75. We found that vigorous-intensity of occupational physical activity was associated with a low prevalence of MS with OR of 0.76 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.63-0.91). Rice wine drinkers (alcohol >12.8 g/day) had about 34% low risks of developing MS with OR of 0.66 (95% CI: 0.48-0.91), compared with non-drinkers. Odds ratio of MS was 1.81 (95% CI: 1.15-2.84) in women who smoked more than 20 pack-years, compared to non-smokers. Odds ratio of MS was 1.56 (95% CI: 1.25-1.95) in women who had familial history of diseases, including hypertension, diabetes and stroke, compared to women without familial history of those diseases. CONCLUSION: MS is highly prevalent among women in rural China. Both physical activity and rice wine consumption play a protective role, while family history and smoking are risk factors in MS development. Educational programs should be established for promoting healthy lifestyles and appropriate interventions in rural China