Projections of Atmospheric Nitrogen Deposition to the Chesapeake Bay Watershed

Atmospheric deposition is among the largest pathways of nitrogen loading to the Chesapeake Bay Watershed (CBW). The interplay between future climate and emission changes in and around the CBW will likely shift the future nutrient deposition abundance and chemical regime (e.g., oxidized vs. reduced nitrogen). In this work, a Representative Concentration Pathway from the Community Earth System Model is dynamically downscaled using a recently updated Weather Research and Forecasting model that subsequently drives the Community Multiscale Air Quality model coupled to the agroeconomic Environmental Policy Integrated Climate model. The relative impacts of emission and climate changes on atmospheric nutrient deposition are explored for a recent historical period and a period centered on 2050. The projected regional emissions in Community Multiscale Air Quality reflect current federal and state regulations, which use baseline and projected emission years 2011 and 2040, respectively. The historical simulations of 2-m temperature (T2) and precipitation (PRECIP) have cool and dry biases, and temperature and PRECIP are projected to both increase. Ammonium wet deposition agrees well with observations, but nitrate wet deposition is underpredicted. Climate and deposition changes increase simulated future ammonium fertilizer application. In the CBW by 2050, these changes (along with widespread decreases in anthropogenic nitrogen oxide and sulfur oxide emissions, and relatively constant ammonia emissions) decrease total nitrogen deposition by 21%, decrease annual average oxidized nitrogen deposition by 44%, and increase reduced nitrogen deposition by 10%. These results emphasize the importance of decreased anthropogenic emissions on the control of future nitrogen loading to the Chesapeake Bay in a changing climate

Alternative futures of dissolved inorganic nitrogen export from the Mississippi River Basin: influence of crop management, atmospheric deposition, and population growth

Nitrogen (N) export from the Mississippi River Basin contributes to seasonal hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM). We explored monthly dissolved inorganic N (DIN) export to the GOM for a historical year (2002) and two future scenarios (year 2022) by linking macroeonomic energy, agriculture market, air quality, and agriculture land management models to a DIN export model. Future scenarios considered policies aimed at encouraging bioenergy crop production and reducing atmospheric N-emissions, as well as the effect of population growth and the states’ infrastructure plans on sewage fluxes. Model-derived DIN export decreased by about 9% (from 279 to 254 kg N km−2year−1) between 2002 and 2022 due to a 28% increase in area planted with corn, 24% improvement in crop N-recovery efficiency (NRE, to 0.52), 22% reduction in atmospheric N deposition, and 23% increase in sewage inputs. Changes in atmospheric and sewage inputs had a relatively small effect on DIN export and the effect of bioenergy crop production depended on nutrient management practices. Without improved NRE, increased production of corn would have increased DIN export by about 14% (to 289 kg N km−2year−1) between 2002 and 2022. Model results suggest that meeting future crop demand while reducing the areal extent of hypoxia could require aggressive actions, such improving basin-level crop NRE to 0.62 or upgrading N-removal capabilities in waste water treatment plants beyond current plans. Tile-drained cropland could contribute up to half of DIN export; thus, practices that reduce N losses from tile drains could also have substantial benefit

The Relevance of Procedural Utility for Economics

This paper aims at showing the relevance of procedural utility for economics: people do not only care about outcomes, as usually assumed in economics, they also value the processes and conditions leading to outcomes. The psychological foundations of procedural utility are outlined and it is discussed how the concept differs from other related approaches in economics, like outcome utility, outcome fairness or intentions. Institutions at the level of society and fair procedures are shown to be sources of procedural utility, and novel empirical evidence on the role of procedural utility in important areas of the economy, polity and society is presented