Origin, evolution and dynamic context of a Neoglacial lateral-frontal moraine at Austre Lovénbreen, Svalbard

Moraines marking the Neoglacial limits in Svalbard are commonly ice cored. Investigating the nature of this relict ice is important because it can aid our understanding of former glacier dynamics. This paper examines the composition of the lateral–frontal moraine associated with the Neoglacial limit at Austre Lovénbreen and assesses the likely geomorphological evolution. The moraine was investigated using ground-penetrating radar (GPR), with context being provided by structural mapping of the glacier based on an oblique aerial image from 1936 and vertical aerial imagery from 2003. Multiple up-glacier dipping reflectors and syncline structures are found in the GPR surveys. The reflectors are most clearly defined in lateral positions, where the moraine is substantially composed of ice. The frontal area of the moraine is dominantly composed of debris. The core of the lateral part of the moraine is likely to consist of stacked sequences of basal ice that have been deformed by strong longitudinal compression. The long term preservation potential of the ice-dominated lateral moraine is negligible, whereas the preservation of the debris-dominated frontal moraine is high. A glacier surface bulge, identified on the 1936 aerial imagery, provides evidence that Austre Lovénbreen has previously displayed surge activity, although it is highly unlikely to do so in the near future in its current state. This research shows the value of relict buried ice that is preserved in landforms to aiding our understanding of former glacier characteristics

Evolution of high-Arctic glacial landforms during deglaciation

Glacial landsystems in the high-Arctic have been reported to undergo geomorphological transformation during deglaciation. This research evaluates moraine evolution over a decadal timescale at Midtre Lovénbreen, Svalbard. This work is of interest because glacial landforms developed in Svalbard have been used as an analogue for landforms developed during Pleistocene mid-latitude glaciation. Ground penetrating radar was used to investigate the subsurface characteristics of moraines. To determine surface change, a LiDAR topographic data set (obtained 2003) and a UAV-derived (obtained 2014) digital surface model processed using structure-from-motion (SfM) are also compared. Evaluation of these data sets together enables subsurface character and landform response to climatic amelioration to be linked. Ground penetrating radar evidence shows that the moraine substrate at Midtre Lovénbreen includes ice-rich (radar velocities of 0.17 m ns−1) and debris-rich (radar velocities of 0.1–0.13 m ns−1) zones. The ice-rich zones are demonstrated to exhibit relatively high rates of surface change (mean thresholded rate of −4.39 m over the 11-year observation period). However, the debris-rich zones show a relatively low rate of surface change (mean thresholded rate of −0.98 m over the 11-year observation period), and the morphology of the debris-rich landforms appear stable over the observation period. A complex response of proglacial landforms to climatic warming is shown to occur within and between glacier forelands as indicated by spatially variable surface lowering rates. Landform response is controlled by the ice-debris balance of the moraine substrate, along with the topographic context (such as the influence of meltwater). Site-specific characteristics such as surface debris thickness and glaciofluvial drainage are, therefore, argued to be a highly important control on surface evolution in ice-cored terrain, resulting in a diverse response of high-Arctic glacial landsystems to climatic amelioration. These results highlight that care is needed when assessing the long-term preservation potential of contemporary landforms at high-Arctic glaciers. A better understanding of ice-cored terrain facilitates the development of appropriate age and climatic interpretations that can be obtained from palaeo ice-marginal landsystems

Two wrongs make a right: Addressing underreporting in binary data from multiple sources

© The Author(s) 2017. Media-based event data-i.e., data comprised from reporting by media outlets-are widely used in political science research. However, events of interest (e.g., strikes, protests, conflict) are often underreportedby these primary and secondary sources, producing incomplete data that risks inconsistency and bias in subsequent analysis. While general strategies exist to help ameliorate this bias, these methods do not make full use of the information often available to researchers. Specifically, much of the event data used in the social sciences is drawn from multiple, overlapping news sources (e.g., Agence France-Presse, Reuters). Therefore, we propose a novel maximum likelihood estimator that corrects for misclassification in data arising from multiple sources. In the most general formulation of our estimator, researchers can specify separate sets of predictors for the true-event model and each of the misclassification models characterizing whether a source fails to report on an event. As such, researchers are able to accurately test theories on both the causes of and reporting on an event of interest. Simulations evidence that our technique regularly outperforms current strategies that either neglect misclassification, the unique features of the data-generating process, or both. We also illustrate the utility of this method with a model of repression using the Social Conflict in Africa Database

Coupled modelling of subglacial hydrology and calving-front melting at Store Glacier, West Greenland

Abstract. We investigate the subglacial hydrology of Store Glacier in West Greenland, using the open-source, full-Stokes model Elmer/Ice in a novel 3D application that includes a distributed water sheet, as well as discrete channelised drainage, and a 1D model to simulate submarine plumes at the calving front. At first, we produce a baseline winter scenario with no surface meltwater. We then investigate the hydrological system during summer, focussing specifically on 2012 and 2017, which provide examples of high and low surface-meltwater inputs, respectively. We show that the common assumption of zero winter freshwater flux is invalid, and we find channels over 1 m2 in area occurring up to 5 km inland in winter. We also find that the production of water from friction and geothermal heat is sufficiently high to drive year-round plume activity, with ice-front melting averaging 0.15 m d−1. When the model is forced with seasonally averaged surface melt from summer, we show a hydrological system with significant distributed sheet activity extending 65 and 45 km inland in 2012 and 2017, respectively; while channels with a cross-sectional area higher than 1 m2 form as far as 55 and 30 km inland. Using daily values for the surface melt as forcing, we find only a weak relationship between the input of surface meltwater and the intensity of plume melting at the calving front, whereas there is a strong correlation between surface-meltwater peaks and basal water pressures. The former shows that storage of water on multiple timescales within the subglacial drainage system plays an important role in modulating subglacial discharge. The latter shows that high melt inputs can drive high basal water pressures even when the channelised network grows larger. This has implications for the future velocity and mass loss of Store Glacier, and the consequent sea-level rise, in a warming world. </jats:p

Estimating the volume of Alpine glacial lakes

Supraglacial, moraine-dammed and ice-dammed lakes represent a potential glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) threat to downstream communities in many mountain regions. This has motivated the development of empirical relationships to predict lake volume given a measurement of lake surface area obtained from satellite imagery. Such relationships are based on the notion that lake depth, area and volume scale predictably. We critically evaluate the performance of these existing empirical relationships by examining a global database of glacial lake depths, areas and volumes. Results show that lake area and depth are not always well correlated (r2 = 0.38), and that although lake volume and area are well correlated (r2 = 0.91), and indeed are auto-correlated, there are distinct outliers in the dataset. These outliers represent situations where it may not be appropriate to apply existing empirical relationships to predict lake volume, and include growing supraglacial lakes, glaciers that recede into basins with complex overdeepened morphologies or that have been deepened by intense erosion, and lakes formed where glaciers advance across and block a main trunk valley. We use the compiled dataset to develop a conceptual model of how the volumes of supraglacial ponds and lakes, moraine-dammed lakes and ice-dammed lakes should be expected to evolve with increasing area. Although a large amount of bathymetric data exist for moraine-dammed and ice-dammed lakes, we suggest that further measurements of growing supraglacial ponds and lakes are needed to better understand their development

Oilseed rape (Brassica napus) as a resource for farmland insect pollinators: quantifying floral traits in conventional varieties and breeding systems

This is the final version of the article. Available from the publisher via the DOI in this record.Oilseed rape (OSR; Brassica napus L.) is a major crop in temperate regions and provides an important source ofnutrition to many of the yield-enhancing insect flower visitors that consume floral nectar. The manipulation ofmechanisms that control various crop plant traits for the benefit of pollinators has been suggested in the bid toincrease food security, but little is known about inherent floral trait expression in contemporary OSR varieties orthe breeding systems used in OSR breeding programmes. We studied a range of floral traits in glasshouse-grown, certified conventional varieties of winter OSR to test for variation among and within breeding systems.We measured 24-h nectar secretion rate, amount, concentration and ratio of nectar sugars per flower, and sizesand number of flowers produced per plant from 24 varieties of OSR representing open-pollinated (OP), genicmale sterility (GMS) hybrid and cytoplasmic male sterility (CMS) hybrid breeding systems. Sugar concentrationwas consistent among and within the breeding systems; however, GMS hybrids produced more nectar and moresugar per flower than CMS hybrid or OP varieties. With the exception of ratio of fructose/glucose in OP vari-eties, we found that nectar traits were consistent within all the breeding systems. When scaled, GMS hybridsproduced 1.73 times more nectar resource per plant than OP varieties. Nectar production and amount of nectarsugar in OSR plants were independent of number and size of flowers. Our data show that floral traits of glass-house-grown OSR differed among breeding systems, suggesting that manipulation and enhancement of nectarrewards for insect flower visitors, including pollinators, could be included in future OSR breeding programmes.This work was fundedby the BBSRC, including support from an Insect Pollinators Ini-tiative grant awarded to GAW (BB/I000968/1) that was jointlyfunded by the BBSRC, NERC, the Wellcome Trust, Defra, andthe Scottish Government. Support was also received from HighWycombe Beekeepers’ Association. Rothamsted Researchreceives strategic funding from the Biotechnology and BiologicalSciences Research Council (BBSRC) of the UK

Protective Efficacy of Centralized and Polyvalent Envelope Immunogens in an Attenuated Equine Lentivirus Vaccine

Lentiviral Envelope (Env) antigenic variation and related immune evasion present major hurdles to effective vaccine development. Centralized Env immunogens that minimize the genetic distance between vaccine proteins and circulating viral isolates are an area of increasing study in HIV vaccinology. To date, the efficacy of centralized immunogens has not been evaluated in the context of an animal model that could provide both immunogenicity and protective efficacy data. We previously reported on a live-attenuated (attenuated) equine infectious anemia (EIAV) virus vaccine, which provides 100% protection from disease after virulent, homologous, virus challenge. Further, protective efficacy demonstrated a significant, inverse, linear relationship between EIAV Env divergence and protection from disease when vaccinates were challenged with viral strains of increasing Env divergence from the vaccine strain Env. Here, we sought to comprehensively examine the protective efficacy of centralized immunogens in our attenuated vaccine platform. We developed, constructed, and extensively tested a consensus Env, which in a virulent proviral backbone generated a fully replication-competent pathogenic virus, and compared this consensus Env to an ancestral Env in our attenuated proviral backbone. A polyvalent attenuated vaccine was established for comparison to the centralized vaccines. Additionally, an engineered quasispecies challenge model was created for rigorous assessment of protective efficacy. Twenty-four EIAV-naïve animals were vaccinated and challenged along with six-control animals six months post-second inoculation. Pre-challenge data indicated the consensus Env was more broadly immunogenic than the Env of the other attenuated vaccines. However, challenge data demonstrated a significant increase in protective efficacy of the polyvalent vaccine. These findings reveal, for the first time, a consensus Env immunogen that generated a fully-functional, replication-competent lentivirus, which when experimentally evaluated, demonstrated broader immunogenicity that does not equate to higher protective efficacy

ERK1/2 inhibitors: New weapons to inhibit the RAS-regulated RAF-MEK1/2-ERK1/2 pathway

The RAS-regulated RAF-MEK1/2-ERK1/2 signalling pathway is de-regulated in a variety of cancers due to mutations in receptor tyrosine kinases (RTKs), negative regulators of RAS (such as NF1) and core pathway components themselves (RAS, BRAF, CRAF, MEK1 or MEK2). This has driven the development of a variety of pharmaceutical agents to inhibit RAF-MEK1/2-ERK1/2 signalling in cancer and both RAF and MEK inhibitors are now approved and used in the clinic. There is now much interest in targeting at the level of ERK1/2 for a variety of reasons. First, since the pathway is linear from RAF-to-MEK-to-ERK then ERK1/2 are validated as targets per se. Second, innate resistance to RAF or MEK inhibitors involves relief of negative feedback and pathway re-activation with all signalling going through ERK1/2, validating the use of ERK inhibitors with RAF or MEK inhibitors as an up-front combination. Third, long-term acquired resistance to RAF or MEK inhibitors involves a variety of mechanisms (KRAS or BRAF amplification, MEK mutation, etc.) which re-instate ERK activity, validating the use of ERK inhibitors to forestall acquired resistance to RAF or MEK inhibitors. The first potent highly selective ERK1/2 inhibitors have now been developed and are entering clinical trials. They have one of three discrete mechanisms of action - catalytic, "dual mechanism" or covalent - which could have profound consequences for how cells respond and adapt. In this review we describe the validation of ERK1/2 as anti-cancer drug targets, consider the mechanism of action of new ERK1/2 inhibitors and how this may impact on their efficacy, anticipate factors that will determine how tumour cells respond and adapt to ERK1/2 inhibitors and consider ERK1/2 inhibitor drug combinations