Predicting risky choices from brain activity patterns

Previous research has implicated a large network of brain regions in the processing of risk during decision making. However, it has not yet been determined if activity in these regions is predictive of choices on future risky decisions. Here, we examined functional MRI data from a large sample of healthy subjects performing a naturalistic risk-taking task and used a classification analysis approach to predict whether individuals would choose risky or safe options on upcoming trials. We were able to predict choice category successfully in 71.8% of cases. Searchlight analysis revealed a network of brain regions where activity patterns were reliably predictive of subsequent risk-taking behavior, including a number of regions known to play a role in control processes. Searchlights with significant predictive accuracy were primarily located in regions more active when preparing to avoid a risk than when preparing to engage in one, suggesting that risk taking may be due, in part, to a failure of the control systems necessary to initiate a safe choice. Additional analyses revealed that subject choice can be successfully predicted with minimal decrements in accuracy using highly condensed data, suggesting that information relevant for risky choice behavior is encoded in coarse global patterns of activation as well as within highly local activation within searchlights

Memory systems in schizophrenia: Modularity is preserved but deficits are generalized

OBJECTIVE: Schizophrenia patients exhibit impaired working and episodic memory, but this may represent generalized impairment across memory modalities or performance deficits restricted to particular memory systems in subgroups of patients. Furthermore, it is unclear whether deficits are unique from those associated with other disorders. METHOD: Healthy controls (n=1101) and patients with schizophrenia (n=58), bipolar disorder (n=49) and attention-deficit-hyperactivity-disorder (n=46) performed 18 tasks addressing primarily verbal and spatial episodic and working memory. Effect sizes for group contrasts were compared across tasks and the consistency of subjects\u27 distributional positions across memory domains was measured. RESULTS: Schizophrenia patients performed poorly relative to the other groups on every test. While low to moderate correlation was found between memory domains (r=.320), supporting modularity of these systems, there was limited agreement between measures regarding each individual\u27s task performance (ICC=.292) and in identifying those individuals falling into the lowest quintile (kappa=0.259). A general ability factor accounted for nearly all of the group differences in performance and agreement across measures in classifying low performers. CONCLUSIONS: Pathophysiological processes involved in schizophrenia appear to act primarily on general abilities required in all tasks rather than on specific abilities within different memory domains and modalities. These effects represent a general shift in the overall distribution of general ability (i.e., each case functioning at a lower level than they would have if not for the illness), rather than presence of a generally low-performing subgroup of patients. There is little evidence that memory impairments in schizophrenia are shared with bipolar disorder and ADHD

Circulating markers of arterial thrombosis and late-stage age-related macular degeneration: a case-control study.

PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to examine the relation of late-stage age-related macular degeneration (AMD) with markers of systemic atherothrombosis. METHODS: A hospital-based case-control study of AMD was undertaken in London, UK. Cases of AMD (n=81) and controls (n=77) were group matched for age and sex. Standard protocols were used for colour fundus photography and to classify AMD; physical examination included height, weight, history of or treatment for vascular-related diseases and smoking status. Blood samples were taken for measurement of fibrinogen, factor VIIc (FVIIc), factor VIIIc, prothrombin fragment F1.2 (F1.2), tissue plasminogen activator, and von Willebrand factor. Odds ratios from logistic regression analyses of each atherothrombotic marker with AMD were adjusted for age, sex, and established cardiovascular disease risk factors, including smoking, blood pressure, body mass index, and total cholesterol. RESULTS: After adjustment FVIIc and possibly F1.2 were inversely associated with the risk of AMD; per 1 standard deviation increase in these markers the odds ratio were, respectively, 0.62 (95% confidence interval 0.40, 0.95) and 0.71 (0.46, 1.09). None of the other atherothrombotic risk factors appeared to be related to AMD status. There was weak evidence that aspirin is associated with a lower risk of AMD. CONCLUSIONS: This study does not provide strong evidence of associations between AMD and systematic markers of arterial thrombosis, but the potential effects of FVIIc, and F1.2 are worthy of further investigation

The iron law of democratic socialism: British and Austrian influences on the young Karl Polanyi

This article has been made available through the Brunel Open Access Publishing Fund.A central thesis of Karl Polanyi's The great transformation concerns the tensions between capitalism and democracy: the former embodies the principle of inequality, while democracy represents that of equality. This paper explores the intellectual heritage of this thesis, in the ‘functional theory’ of G.D.H. Cole and Otto Bauer and in the writings of Eduard Bernstein. It scrutinizes Polanyi's relationship with Bernstein's ‘evolutionary socialism’ and charts his ‘double movement’ vis-à-vis Marxist philosophy: in the 1910s he reacted sharply against Marxism's deterministic excesses, but he then, in the 1920s, engaged in sympathetic dialogue with Austro-Marxist thinkers. The latter, like Bernstein, disavowed economic determinism and insisted upon the importance and autonomy of ethics. Yet they simultaneously predicted a law-like expansion of democracy from the political to the economic arena. Analysis of this contradiction provides the basis for a concluding discussion that reconsiders the deterministic threads in Polanyi's oeuvre. Whereas for some Polanyi scholars these attest to his residual attraction to Marxism, I argue that matters are more complex. While Polanyi did repudiate the more rigidly deterministic of currents in Marxist philosophy, those to which he was attracted, notably Bernstein's ‘revision’ and Austro-Marxism, incorporated a deterministic fatalism of their own, in respect of democratization. Herein lies a more convincing explanation of Polanyi's incomplete escape from a deterministic philosophy of history, as exemplified in his masterwork, The great transformation

Substructures in lens galaxies: PG1115+080 and B1555+375, two fold configurations

We study the anomalous flux ratio which is observed in some four-image lens systems, where the source lies close to a fold caustic. In this case two of the images are close to the critical curve and their flux ratio should be equal to unity, instead in several cases the observed value differs significantly. The most plausible solution is to invoke the presence of substructures, as for instance predicted by the Cold Dark Matter scenario, located near the two images. In particular, we analyze the two fold lens systems PG1115+080 and B1555+375, for which there are not yet satisfactory models which explain the observed anomalous flux ratios. We add to a smooth lens model, which reproduces well the positions of the images but not the anomalous fluxes, one or two substructures described as singular isothermal spheres. For PG1115+080 we consider a smooth model with the influence of the group of galaxies described by a SIS and a substructure with mass $\sim 10^{5} M_{\odot}$ as well as a smooth model with an external shear and one substructure with mass $\sim 10^{8} M_{\odot}$ . For B1555+375 either a strong external shear or two substructures with mass $\sim 10^{7} M_{\odot}$ reproduce the data quite well.Comment: 26 pages, updated bibliography, Accepted for publication in Astrophysics & Space Scienc

Ecological Modeling of Aedes aegypti (L.) Pupal Production in Rural Kamphaeng Phet, Thailand

Background - Aedes aegypti (L.) is the primary vector of dengue, the most important arboviral infection globally. Until an effective vaccine is licensed and rigorously administered, Ae. aegypti control remains the principal tool in preventing and curtailing dengue transmission. Accurate predictions of vector populations are required to assess control methods and develop effective population reduction strategies. Ae. aegypti develops primarily in artificial water holding containers. Release recapture studies indicate that most adult Ae. aegypti do not disperse over long distances. We expect, therefore, that containers in an area of high development site density are more likely to be oviposition sites and to be more frequently used as oviposition sites than containers that are relatively isolated from other development sites. After accounting for individual container characteristics, containers more frequently used as oviposition sites are likely to produce adult mosquitoes consistently and at a higher rate. To this point, most studies of Ae. aegypti populations ignore the spatial density of larval development sites. Methodology - Pupal surveys were carried out from 2004 to 2007 in rural Kamphaeng Phet, Thailand. In total, 84,840 samples of water holding containers were used to estimate model parameters. Regression modeling was used to assess the effect of larval development site density, access to piped water, and seasonal variation on container productivity. A varying-coefficients model was employed to account for the large differences in productivity between container types. A two-part modeling structure, called a hurdle model, accounts for the large number of zeroes and overdispersion present in pupal population counts. Findings - The number of suitable larval development sites and their density in the environment were the primary determinants of the distribution and abundance of Ae. aegypti pupae. The productivity of most container types increased significantly as habitat density increased. An ecological approach, accounting for development site density, is appropriate for predicting Ae. aegypti population levels and developing efficient vector control program

PG 1115+080: variations of the A2/A1 flux ratio and new values of the time delays

We report the results of our multicolor observations of PG 1115+080 with the 1.5-m telescope of the Maidanak Observatory (Uzbekistan, Central Asia) in 2001-2006. Monitoring data in filter R spanning the 2004, 2005 and 2006 seasons (76 data points) demonstrate distinct brightness variations of the source quasar with the total amplitude of almost 0.4 mag. Our R light curves have shown image C leading B by 16.4d and image (A1+A2) by 12d that is inconsistent with the previous estimates obtained by Schechter et al. in 1997 - 24.7d between B and C and 9.4d between (A1+A2) and C. The new values of time delays in PG 1115+080 must result in larger values for the Hubble constant, thus reducing difference between its estimates taken from the gravitational lenses and with other methods. Also, we analyzed variability of the A2/A1 flux ratio, as well as color changes in the archetypal "fold" lens PG 1115+080. We found the A1/A2 flux ratio to grow during 2001-2006 and to be larger at longer wavelengths. In particular, the A2/A1 flux ratio reached 0.85 in filter I in 2006. We also present evidence that both the A1 and A2 images might have undergone microlensing during 2001-2006, with the descending phase for A1 and initial phase for A2. We find that the A2/A1 flux ratio anomaly in PG 1115 can be well explained both by microlensing and by finite distance of the source quasar from the caustic fold.Comment: 14 pages, 7 figures, 8 tables, Accepted for publication in MNRA

Innocent Frauds Meet Goodhart’s Law in Monetary Policy

This paper discusses recent UK monetary policies as instances of Galbraith’s ‘innocent frauds’, including the idea that money is a thing rather than a relationship, the fallacy of composition that what is possible for one bank is possible for all banks, and the belief that the money supply can be controlled by reserves management. The origins of the idea of QE, and its defense when it was applied in Britain, are analysed through this lens. An empirical analysis of the effect of reserves on lending is conducted; we do not find evidence that QE ‘worked’ either by a direct effect on money spending, or through an equity market effect. These findings are placed in a historical context in a comparison with earlier money control experiments in the UK