Mario Vargas Llosa:una travesía intelectual

Mario Vargas Llosa, además de ser un gran escritor narrativo, es un “intelectual público” en el pleno sentido de la expresión, y sus opiniones sobre temas de actualidad tienen gran influencia en el mundo hispanoparlante. Wellsprings, uno de sus libros más recientes, ofrece un compendio de su pensamiento actual sobre temas políticos y sociales. En este ensayo se intenta, en el contexto de una reseña de esta obra, una breve revisión de su trayectoria intelectual

The cosmological origin of the Tully-Fisher relation

We use high-resolution cosmological simulations that include the effects of gasdynamics and star formation to investigate the origin of the Tully-Fisher relation in the standard Cold Dark Matter cosmogony. Luminosities are computed for each model galaxy using their full star formation histories and the latest spectrophotometric models. We find that at z=0 the stellar mass of model galaxies is proportional to the total baryonic mass within the virial radius of their surrounding halos. Circular velocity then correlates tightly with the total luminosity of the galaxy, reflecting the equivalence between mass and circular velocity of systems identified in a cosmological context. The slope of the relation steepens slightly from the red to the blue bandpasses, and is in fairly good agreement with observations. Its scatter is small, decreasing from \~0.45 mag in the U-band to ~0.34 mag in the K-band. The particular cosmological model we explore here seems unable to account for the zero-point of the correlation. Model galaxies are too faint at z=0 (by about two magnitudes) if the circular velocity at the edge of the luminous galaxy is used as an estimator of the rotation speed. The Tully-Fisher relation is brighter in the past, by about ~0.7 magnitudes in the B-band at z=1, at odds with recent observations of z~1 galaxies. We conclude that the slope and tightness of the Tully-Fisher relation can be naturally explained in hierarchical models but that its normalization and evolution depend strongly on the star formation algorithm chosen and on the cosmological parameters that determine the universal baryon fraction and the time of assembly of galaxies of different mass.Comment: 5 pages, 4 figures included, submitted to ApJ (Letters

Toward MR protocol-agnostic, unbiased brain age predicted from clinical-grade MRIs

The difference between the estimated brain age and the chronological age ('brain-PAD') could become a clinical biomarker. However, most brain age models were developed for research-grade high-resolution T1-weighted MRIs, limiting their applicability to clinical-grade MRIs from various protocols. We adopted a dual-transfer learning strategy to develop a model agnostic to modality, resolution, or slice orientation. We retrained a convolutional neural network (CNN) using 6281 clinical MRIs from 1559 patients, among 7 modalities and 8 scanner models. The CNN was trained to estimate brain age from synthetic research-grade magnetization-prepared rapid gradient-echo MRIs (MPRAGEs) generated by a 'super-resolution' method. The model failed with T2-weighted Gradient-Echo MRIs. The mean absolute error (MAE) was 5.86-8.59 years across the other modalities, still higher than for research-grade MRIs, but comparable between actual and synthetic MPRAGEs for some modalities. We modeled the "regression bias" in brain age, for its correction is crucial for providing unbiased summary statistics of brain age or for personalized brain age-based biomarkers. The bias model was generalizable as its correction eliminated any correlation between brain-PAD and chronological age in new samples. Brain-PAD was reliable across modalities. We demonstrate the feasibility of brain age predictions from arbitrary clinical-grade MRIs, thereby contributing to personalized medicine

The Effects of a Photoionizing UV Background on the Formation of Disk Galaxies

We use high resolution N-body/gasdynamical simulations to investigate the effects of a photoionizing UV background on the assembly of disk galaxies in hierarchically clustering universes. We focus on the mass and rotational properties of gas that can cool to form centrifugally supported disks in dark matter halos of different mass. Photoheating can significantly reduce the amount of gas that can cool in galactic halos. Depending on the strength of the UV background field, the amount of cooled gas can be reduced by up to $50\%$ in systems with circular speeds in the range $80$-$200$ \kms. The magnitude of the effect, however, is not enough to solve the ``overcooling'' problem that plagues hierarchical models of galaxy formation if the UV background is chosen to be consistent with estimates based on recent observations of QSO absorption systems. Photoionization has little effect on the collapse of gas at high redshift and affects preferentially gas that is accreted at late times. Since disks form inside-out, accreting higher angular momentum gas at later times, disks formed in the presence of a UV background have spins that are even smaller than those formed in simulations that do not include the effects of photoionization. This exacerbates the angular momentum problem that afflicts hierarchical models of disk formation. We conclude that photoionization cannot provide the heating mechanism required to reconcile hierarchically clustering models with observations. Energy feedback and enrichment processes from the formation and evolution of stars must therefore be indispensable ingredients for any successful model of the formation of disk galaxies.Comment: 36 pages, w/ embedded figures, submitted to ApJ. Also available at http://penedes.as.arizona.edu/~jfn/preprints/dskform.ps.g

Brain-predicted age in Down syndrome is associated with beta amyloid deposition and cognitive decline

Individuals with Down Syndrome (DS) are more likely to experience earlier onset of multiple facets of physiological ageing. This includes brain atrophy, β-amyloid deposition, cognitive decline and Alzheimer’s Disease; factors indicative of brain ageing. Here we employed a machine learning approach, using structural neuroimaging data to predict age (i.e., brain-predicted age) in people with DS (N = 46) and typically developing controls (N = 30). Chronological age was then subtracted from brain-predicted age to generate a brain-predicted age difference (brain-PAD) score. DS participants also underwent [11C]-PiB positron emission tomography (PET) scans to index levels of cerebral β-amyloid deposition, and cognitive assessment. Mean brain-PAD in DS participants’ was +2.49 years, significantly greater than controls (p<0.001). The variability in brain-PAD was associated with the presence and the magnitude of PIB-binding and levels of cognitive performance. Our study indicates that DS is associated with premature structural brain ageing, and that age-related alterations in brain structure are associated with individual differences in the rate of β-amyloid deposition and cognitive impairment

Percutaneous Transendocardial Delivery of Self-complementary Adeno-associated Virus 6 Achieves Global Cardiac Gene Transfer in Canines

Achieving efficient cardiac gene transfer in a large animal model has proven to be technically challenging. Previous strategies have used cardiopulmonary bypass or dual catheterization with the aid of vasodilators to deliver vectors, such as adenovirus, adeno-associated virus (AAV), or plasmid DNA. Although single-stranded AAV (ssAAV) vectors have shown the greatest promise, they suffer from delayed expression, which might be circumvented using self-complementary vectors. We sought to optimize cardiac gene transfer using a percutaneous transendocardial injection catheter to deliver adeno-associated viral vectors to the canine myocardium. Four vectors were evaluated-ssAAV9, self-complementary AAV9 (scAAV9), scAAV8, scAAV6-so that comparison could be made between single-stranded and self-complementary vectors as well as among serotypes 9, 8, and 6. We demonstrate that scAAV is superior to ssAAV and that AAV 6 is superior to the other serotypes evaluated. Biodistribution studies revealed that vector genome copies were 15-4,000 times more abundant in the heart than in any other organ for scAAV6. Percutaneous transendocardial injection of scAAV6 is a safe, effective method to achieve efficient cardiac gene transfer

Assessing innovations for upscaling forest landscape restoration

There is an increasing urgency to implement large-scale ecosystem restoration to mitigate the biodiversity and climate crises. These efforts must be scaled up to counteract the widespread degradation of the world’s forests, although restoration costs can often limit their application. Thus, there is a pressing need to identify cost-effective approaches that catalyze landscape-scale ecological recovery. Here, we highlight seven assisted restoration innovations with demonstrated local-scale results that, once upscaled, hold promise to rapidly regenerate forests. We comprehensively assessed how each approach facilitated forest, woodland, and/or mangrove recovery across 143 studies. Our results reveal techniques with a marked ability to catalyze vegetation recovery compared to “business-as-usual” approaches. However, the context-dependent cost-benefit ratio and feasibility of applying particular approaches requires careful consideration. Our assessment emphasizes that we already have many of the tools necessary to drive the terrestrial restoration movement forward. It is time to implement and assess their efficacy at scale

How to increase technology transfers to developing countries: a synthesis of the evidence

The existing United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has failed to deliver the rate of low-carbon technology transfer (TT) required to curb GHG emissions in developing countries. This failure has exposed the limitations of universalism and renewed interest in bilateral approaches to TT. Gaps are identified in the UNFCCC approach to climate change TT: missing links between international institutions and the national enabling environments that encourage private investment; a non-differentiated approach for (developing) country and technology characteristics; and a lack of clear measurements of the volume and effectiveness of TTs. Evidence from econometric literature and business experience on climate change TT is reviewed, so as to address the identified pitfalls of the UNFCCC process. Strengths and weaknesses of different methodological approaches are highlighted. International policy recommendations are offered aimed at improving the level of emission reductions achieved through TT

Risks to carbon storage from land-use change revealed by peat thickness maps of Peru

This work was funded by NERC (grant ref. NE/R000751/1) to I.T.L., A.H., K.H.R., E.T.A.M., C.M.A., T.R.B., G.D. and E.C.D.G.; Leverhulme Trust (grant ref. RPG-2018-306) to K.H.R., L.E.S.C. and C.E.W.; Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation (grant no. 5439, MonANPeru network) to T.R.B., E.N.H.C. and G.F.; Wildlife Conservation Society to E.N.H.C.; Concytec/British Council/Embajada Británica Lima/Newton Fund (grant ref. 220–2018) to E.N.H.C. and J.D.; Concytec/NERC/Embajada Británica Lima/Newton Fund (grant ref. 001–2019) to E.N.H.C. and N.D.; the governments of the United States (grant no. MTO-069018) and Norway (grant agreement no. QZA-12/0882) to K.H.; and NERC Knowledge Exchange Fellowship (grant ref no. NE/V018760/1) to E.N.H.C.Tropical peatlands are among the most carbon-dense ecosystems but land-use change has led to the loss of large peatland areas, associated with substantial greenhouse gas emissions. To design effective conservation and restoration policies, maps of the location and carbon storage of tropical peatlands are vital. This is especially so in countries such as Peru where the distribution of its large, hydrologically intact peatlands is poorly known. Here field and remote sensing data support the model development of peatland extent and thickness for lowland Peruvian Amazonia. We estimate a peatland area of 62,714 km2 (5th and 95th confidence interval percentiles of 58,325 and 67,102 km2, respectively) and carbon stock of 5.4 (2.6–10.6) PgC, a value approaching the entire above-ground carbon stock of Peru but contained within just 5% of its land area. Combining the map of peatland extent with national land-cover data we reveal small but growing areas of deforestation and associated CO2 emissions from peat decomposition due to conversion to mining, urban areas and agriculture. The emissions from peatland areas classified as forest in 2000 represent 1–4% of Peruvian CO2 forest emissions between 2000 and 2016. We suggest that bespoke monitoring, protection and sustainable management of tropical peatlands are required to avoid further degradation and CO2 emissions.PostprintPeer reviewe

State-building, war and violence : evidence from Latin America

In European history, war has played a major role in state‐building and the state monopoly on violence. But war is a very specific form of organized political violence, and it is decreasing on a global scale. Other patterns of armed violence now dominate, ones that seem to undermine state‐building, thus preventing the replication of European experiences. As a consequence, the main focus of the current state‐building debate is on fragility and a lack of violence control inside these states. Evidence from Latin American history shows that the specific patterns of the termination of both war and violence are more important than the specific patterns of their organization. Hence these patterns can be conceptualized as a critical juncture for state‐building. While military victories in war, the subordination of competing armed actors and the prosecution of perpetrators are conducive for state‐building, negotiated settlements, coexistence, and impunity produce instability due to competing patterns of authority, legitimacy, and social cohesion