Assessing Dengue Risk Globally Using Non-Markovian Models

Dengue is a vector-borne disease transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes. The worldwide spread of these mosquitoes and the increasing disease burden have emphasized the need for a spatio-temporal risk map capable of assessing dengue outbreak conditions and quantifying the outbreak risk. Given that the life cycle of Aedes mosquitoes is strongly influenced by habitat temperature, numerous studies have utilized temperature-dependent development rates of these mosquitoes to construct virus transmission and outbreak risk models. In this study, we advance existing research by developing a mechanistic model for the mosquito life cycle that accurately accounts for the non-Markovian nature of the process. By fitting the model to data on human dengue cases, we estimate several model parameters, allowing the development of a global spatiotemporal dengue risk map. This risk model employs temperature and precipitation data to assess the environmental suitability for dengue outbreaks in a given area. Furthermore, we demonstrate how to reduce the model to the corresponding differential equations, enabling us to utilize existing methods for analyzing the system and fitting the model to observations. This approach can be further applied to similar non-Markovian processes that are currently described with less accurate Markovian models

HAUL-OUT AREA USEAGE BY HARBOR SEALS (PHOCA VITULINA) AT THE NORTH COVE OF CAPE ARAGO, OREGON

35 pagesHarbor seals were observed on 70 occasions from 7 April to 10 August, 2001, at the North Cove, Cape Arago, Oregon, to determine if the harbor seals used different haulout zones within the haul-out area during different life history stages. This study identified sex and age as the most important factors influencing the selection of haul-out zones. A haul-out pattern was observed on days when both low tides occurred during daylight hours: the number of animals hauled-out during a morning low tide was fewer than those during the afternoon low tide regardless of weather conditions

Understanding the role of sexual transmission in the spread of ZIKA virus using an individual-based interconnected population model

Citation: Tanver, F., Lee, C., Mcvey, D., & Scoglio, S. (2018). Understanding the role of sexual transmission in the spread of ZIKA virus using an individual-based interconnected population model. Pre-Print, Unpublished Manuscript.Zika virus has affected the world as a long-term threat. Modeling its transmission is important in order to facilitate forecasts and control measures. We propose a novel node-based interconnected population model to simulate both vectored and sexual transmission of Zika virus. Using a sexual contact network, we incorporate heterogeneous mixing in the host population with stochastic transmission for realistic predictions. We also incorporate climatic variations in our model, which affect the mosquito vector population and consequently the arbovirus transmission. We perform extensive simulations to understand the effects of sexual transmission rate and network topology on the spreading of infections. Sexual transmission contributes to the epidemic spread and under certain conditions, can sustain it up to several months without vectors. This can potentially lead to recurrences once the mosquitoes overwinter. We also find that sexual transmission can have a stronger effect when vectored transmission is relatively weaker due to climatic conditions. Our results show that vectored and sexual transmission affect the disease dynamics differently

Understanding the survival of Zika virus in a vector interconnected sexual contact network

Citation: Ferdousi, T., Cohnstaedt, L. W., McVey, D. S., & Scoglio, C. M. (2019). Understanding the survival of Zika virus in a vector interconnected sexual contact network. Scientific Reports, 9(1), 7253. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-43651-3The recent outbreaks of the insect-vectored Zika virus have demonstrated its potential to be sexually transmitted, which complicates modeling and our understanding of disease dynamics. Autochthonous outbreaks in the US mainland may be a consequence of both modes of transmission, which affect the outbreak size, duration, and virus persistence. We propose a novel individual-based interconnected network model that incorporates both insect-vectored and sexual transmission of this pathogen. This model interconnects a homogeneous mosquito vector population with a heterogeneous human host contact network. The model incorporates the seasonal variation of mosquito abundance and characterizes host dynamics based on age group and gender in order to produce realistic projections. We use a sexual contact network which is generated on the basis of real world sexual behavior data. Our findings suggest that for a high relative transmissibility of asymptomatic hosts, Zika virus shows a high probability of sustaining in the human population for up to 3 months without the presence of mosquito vectors. Zika outbreaks are strongly affected by the large proportion of asymptomatic individuals and their relative transmissibility. The outbreak size is also affected by the time of the year when the pathogen is introduced. Although sexual transmission has a relatively low contribution in determining the epidemic size, it plays a role in sustaining the epidemic and creating potential endemic scenarios

Evaluation of light attraction for the stored-product psocid, \u3ci\u3eLiposcelis bostrychophila\u3c/i\u3e

The psocid, Liposcelis bostrychophila Badonnel (Psocoptera: Liposcelididae), is the most widespread psocid pest of stored products. Because L. bostrychophila has developed resistance to several chemical insecticides, it is important to investigate other integrated pest management (IPM) approaches, and a critical part of IPM programs is an effective monitoring program, Monitoring tools for psocids are limited, and few studies have been conducted on monitoring of psocids, with none on the attraction of lights for psocids. Therefore, we studied the response of L. bostrychophila adults to eight wavelengths of light-emitting diodes (LED) in paired-choice pitfall test. Among the LEDs evaluated, the strongest response by L. bostrychophila adults was to 351 nm UV. When LEDs were tested against brewer’s yeast (the most preferred attractant for L. bostrychophila among more than 20 potential attractants found in previous studies), the 351 nm UV wavelength was the only light that attracted more psocids than brewer’s yeast. These results suggest that the use of LEDs might be useful in psocid-monitoring programs for L. bostrychophila and other psocid species

Biologically Informed Individual-Based Network Model for Rift Valley Fever in the US and Evaluation of Mitigation Strategies

Citation: Scoglio, C. M., Bosca, C., Riad, M. H., Sahneh, F. D., Britch, S. C., Cohnstaedt, L. W., & Linthicum, K. J. (2016). Biologically Informed Individual-Based Network Model for Rift Valley Fever in the US and Evaluation of Mitigation Strategies. Plos One, 11(9), 26. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0162759Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a zoonotic disease endemic in sub-Saharan Africa with periodic outbreaks in human and animal populations. Mosquitoes are the primary disease vectors; however, Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) can also spread by direct contact with infected tissues. The transmission cycle is complex, involving humans, livestock, and multiple species of mosquitoes. The epidemiology of RVFV in endemic areas is strongly affected by climatic conditions and environmental variables. In this research, we adapt and use a network-based modeling framework to simulate the transmission of RVFV among hypothetical cattle operations in Kansas, US. Our model considers geo-located livestock populations at the individual level while incorporating the role of mosquito populations and the environment at a coarse resolution. Extensive simulations show the flexibility of our modeling framework when applied to specific scenarios to quantitatively evaluate the efficacy of mosquito control and livestock movement regulations in reducing the extent and intensity of RVF outbreaks in the United States

Do topical repellents divert mosquitoes within a community? Health equity implications of topical repellents as a mosquito bite prevention tool.

OBJECTIVES: Repellents do not kill mosquitoes--they simply reduce human-vector contact. Thus it is possible that individuals who do not use repellents but dwell close to repellent users experience more bites than otherwise. The objective of this study was to measure if diversion occurs from households that use repellents to those that do not use repellents. METHODS: The study was performed in three Tanzanian villages using 15%-DEET and placebo lotions. All households were given LLINs. Three coverage scenarios were investigated: complete coverage (all households were given 15%-DEET), incomplete coverage (80% of households were given 15%-DEET and 20% placebo) and no coverage (all households were given placebo). A crossover study design was used and coverage scenarios were rotated weekly over a period of ten weeks. The placebo lotion was randomly allocated to households in the incomplete coverage scenario. The level of compliance was reported to be close to 100%. Mosquito densities were measured through aspiration of resting mosquitoes. Data were analysed using negative binomial regression models. FINDINGS: Repellent-users had consistently fewer mosquitoes in their dwellings. In villages where everybody had been given 15%-DEET, resting mosquito densities were fewer than half that of households in the no coverage scenario (Incidence Rate Ratio [IRR]=0.39 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.25-0.60); p<0.001). Placebo-users living in a village where 80% of the households used 15%-DEET were likely to have over four-times more mosquitoes (IRR=4.17; 95% CI: 3.08-5.65; p<0.001) resting in their dwellings in comparison to households in a village where nobody uses repellent. CONCLUSIONS: There is evidence that high coverage of repellent use could significantly reduce man-vector contact but with incomplete coverage evidence suggests that mosquitoes are diverted from households that use repellent to those that do not. Therefore, if repellents are to be considered for vector control, strategies to maximise coverage are required

Trapping of Rift Valley Fever (RVF) vectors using Light Emitting Doide (LED) CDC traps in two arboviral disease hot spots in Kenya

BACKGROUND: Mosquitoes’ response to artificial lights including color has been exploited in trap designs for improved sampling of mosquito vectors. Earlier studies suggest that mosquitoes are attracted to specific wavelengths of light and thus the need to refine techniques to increase mosquito captures following the development of super-bright light-emitting diodes (LEDs) which emit narrow wavelengths of light or very specific colors. Therefore, we investigated if LEDs can be effective substitutes for incandescent lamps used in CDC light traps for mosquito surveillance, and if so, determine the best color for attraction of important Rift Valley Fever (RFV) vectors. METHODS: The efficiency of selected colored LED CDC light traps (red, green, blue, violet, combination of blue-green-red (BGR)) to sample RVF vectors was evaluated relative to incandescent light (as control) in a CDC light trap in two RVF hotspots (Marigat and Ijara districts) in Kenya. In field experiments, traps were baited with dry ice and captures evaluated for Aedes tricholabis, Ae. mcintoshi, Ae. ochraceus, Mansonia uniformis, Mn. africana and Culex pipiens, following Latin square design with days as replicates. Daily mosquito counts per treatment were analyzed using a generalized linear model with Negative Binomial error structure and log link using R. The incidence rate ratios (IRR) that mosquito species chose other treatments instead of the control, were estimated. RESULTS: Seasonal preference of Ae.mcintoshi and Ae. ochraceus at Ijara was evident with a bias towards BGR and blue traps respectively in one trapping period but this pattern waned during another period at same site with significantly low numbers recorded in all colored traps except blue relative to the control. Overall results showed that higher captures of all species were recorded in control traps compared to the other LED traps (IRR<1) although only significantly different from red and violet. CONCLUSION: Based on our trapping design and color, none of the LEDs outcompeted the standard incandescent light. The data however provides preliminary evidence that a preference might exist for some of these mosquito species based on observed differential attraction to these light colors requiring future studies to compare reflected versus transmitted light and the incorporation of colored light of varying intensities.Google.org for financial support and the German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD) for a studentship to DPT.http://www.parasitesandvectors.com/content/5/1/94ab201

Advantages and Limitations of Commercially Available Electrocuting Grids for Studying Mosquito Behaviour.

Mosquito feeding behaviour plays a major role in determining malaria transmission intensity and the impact of specific prevention measures. Human Landing Catch (HLC) is currently the only method that can directly and consistently measure the biting rates of anthropophagic mosquitoes, both indoors and outdoors. However, this method exposes the participant to mosquito-borne pathogens, therefore new exposure-free methods are needed to replace it. Commercially available electrocuting grids (EGs) were evaluated as an alternative to HLC using a Latin Square experimental design in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. Both HLC and EGs were used to estimate the proportion of human exposure to mosquitoes occurring indoors (πi), as well as its two underlying parameters: the proportion of mosquitoes caught indoors (Pi) and the proportion of mosquitoes caught between the first and last hour when most people are indoors (Pfl). HLC and EGs methods accounted for 69% and 31% of the total number of female mosquitoes caught respectively and both methods caught more mosquitoes outdoors than indoors. Results from the gold standard HLC suggest that An. gambiae s.s. in Dar es Salaam is neither exophagic nor endophagic (Pi ≈ 0.5), whereas An. arabiensis is exophagic (Pi < < 0.5). Both species prefer to feed after 10 pm when most people are indoors (Pfl > >0.5). EGs yielded estimates of Pi for An. gambiae s.s., An. arabiensis and An. coustani, that were approximately equivalent to those with HLC but significantly underestimated Pfl for An. gambiae s.s. and An. coustani. The relative sampling sensitivity of EGs declined over the course of the night (p ≤ 0.001) for all mosquito taxa except An. arabiensis. Commercial EGs sample human-seeking mosquitoes with high sensitivity both indoors and outdoors and accurately measure the propensity of Anopheles malaria vectors to bite indoors rather than outdoors. However, further modifications are needed to stabilize sampling sensitivity over a full nocturnal cycle so that they can be used to survey patterns of human exposure to mosquitoes