Forecasting Equicorrelation

We study the out-of-sample forecasting performance of several time-series models of equicorrelation, which is the average pairwise correlation between a number of assets. Building on the existing Dynamic Conditional Correlation and Linear Dynamic Equicorrelation models, we propose a model that uses proxies for equicorrelation based on high-frequency intraday data, and the level of equicorrelation implied by options prices. Using state-of-the-art statistical evaluation technology, we find that the use of both realized and implied equicorrelations outperform models that use daily data alone. However, the out-of-sample forecasting benefits of implied equicorrelation disappear when used in conjunction with the realized measures.Equicorrelation, Implied Correlation, Multivariate GARCH, DCC

3C 220.3: a radio galaxy lensing a submillimeter galaxy

Herschel Space Observatory photometry and extensive multiwavelength followup have revealed that the powerful radio galaxy 3C 220.3 at z=0.685 acts as a gravitational lens for a background submillimeter galaxy (SMG) at z=2.221. At an observed wavelength of 1mm, the SMG is lensed into three distinct images. In the observed near infrared, these images are connected by an arc of 1.8" radius forming an Einstein half-ring centered near the radio galaxy. In visible light, only the arc is apparent. 3C 220.3 is the only known instance of strong galaxy-scale lensing by a powerful radio galaxy not located in a galaxy cluster and therefore it offers the potential to probe the dark matter content of the radio galaxy host. Lens modeling rejects a single lens, but two lenses centered on the radio galaxy host A and a companion B, separated by 1.5", provide a fit consistent with all data and reveal faint candidates for the predicted fourth and fifth images. The model does not require an extended common dark matter halo, consistent with the absence of extended bright X-ray emission on our Chandra image. The projected dark matter fractions within the Einstein radii of A (1.02") and B (0.61") are about 0.4 +/- 0.3 and 0.55 +/- 0.3. The mass to i-band light ratios of A and B, M/L ~ 8 +/- 4 Msun/Lsun, appear comparable to those of radio-quiet lensing galaxies at the same redshift in the CASTLES, LSD, and SL2S samples. The lensed SMG is extremely bright with observed f(250um) = 440mJy owing to a magnification factor mu~10. The SMG spectrum shows luminous, narrow CIV 154.9nm emission, revealing that the SMG houses a hidden quasar in addition to a violent starburst. Multicolor image reconstruction of the SMG indicates a bipolar morphology of the emitted ultraviolet (UV) light suggestive of cones through which UV light escapes a dust-enshrouded nucleus.Comment: 17 pages, 14 Figures, accepted for publication in Ap

Organization of the pronephric kidney revealed by large-scale gene expression mapping

Gene expression mapping reveals 8 functionally distinct domains in the Xenopus pronephros. Interestingly, no structure equivalent to the mammalian collecting duct is identified

MMP-1 activation contributes to airway smooth muscle growth and asthma severity

Introduction: Matrix metalloproteinase-1 and mast cells are present in the airways of people with asthma. We hypothesised that matrix metalloproteinase-1 could be activated by mast cells and increase asthma severity. Methods: Patients with stable asthma and healthy controls underwent spirometry, methacholine challenge, bronchoscopy and their airway smooth muscle cells were grown in culture. A second asthma group and controls had symptom scores, spirometry and bronchoalveolar lavage before and after rhinovirus-induced asthma exacerbations. Extra-cellular matrix was prepared from decellularised airway smooth muscle cultures. Matrix metalloproteinase-1 protein and activity were assessed. Results: Airway smooth muscle cells generated pro-matrix metalloproteinase-1 which was proteolytically activated by mast cell tryptase. Airway smooth muscle treated with activated mast cell supernatants produced extra-cellular matrix which enhanced subsequent airway smooth muscle growth by 1.5 fold (p<0.05) which was dependent on matrix metalloproteinase-1 activation. In asthma, airway pro-matrix metalloproteinase-1 was 5.4 fold higher than control subjects (p=0.002). Mast cell numbers were associated with airway smooth muscle proliferation and matrix metalloproteinase-1 protein associated with bronchial hyper-responsiveness. During exacerbations, matrix metalloproteinase-1 activity increased and was associated with fall in FEV1 and worsening asthma symptoms. Conclusions: Matrix metalloproteinase-1 is activated by mast cell tryptase resulting in a pro-proliferative extra-cellular matrix. In asthma, mast cells are associated with airway smooth muscle growth, matrix metalloproteinase-1 levels are associated with bronchial hyper-responsiveness and matrix metalloproteinase-1 activation with exacerbation severity. Our findings suggest that airway smooth muscle/mast cell interactions contribute to asthma severity by transiently increasing matrix metalloproteinase activation, airway smooth muscle growth and airway responsiveness

Coordinated Regulation of SIV Replication and Immune Responses in the CNS

Central nervous system (CNS) invasion during acute-stage HIV-infection has been demonstrated in a small number of individuals, but there is no evidence of neurological impairment at this stage and virus infection in brain appears to be controlled until late-stage disease. Using our reproducible SIV macaque model to examine the earliest stages of infection in the CNS, we identified immune responses that differentially regulate inflammation and virus replication in the brain compared to the peripheral blood and lymphoid tissues. SIV replication in brain macrophages and in brain of SIV-infected macaques was detected at 4 days post-inoculation (p.i.). This was accompanied by upregulation of innate immune responses, including IFNβ, IFNβ-induced gene MxA mRNA, and TNFα. Additionally, IL-10, the chemokine CCL2, and activation markers in macrophages, endothelial cells, and astrocytes were all increased in the brain at four days p.i. We observed synchronous control of virus replication, cytokine mRNA levels and inflammatory markers (MHC Class II, CD68 and GFAP) by 14 days p.i.; however, control failure was followed by development of CNS lesions in the brain. SIV infection was accompanied by induction of the dominant-negative isoform of C/EBPβ, which regulates SIV, CCL2, and IL6 transcription, as well as inflammatory responses in macrophages and astrocytes. This synchronous response in the CNS is in part due to the effect of the C/EBPβ on virus replication and cytokine expression in macrophage-lineage cells in contrast to CD4+ lymphocytes in peripheral blood and lymphoid tissues. Thus, we have identified a crucial period in the brain when virus replication and inflammation are controlled. As in HIV-infected individuals, though, this control is not sustained in the brain. Our results suggest that intervention with antiretroviral drugs or anti-inflammatory therapeutics with CNS penetration would sustain early control. These studies further suggest that interventions should target HIV-infected individuals with increased CCL2 levels or HIV RNA in the CNS

Twenty-two points to consider for clinical trials in systemic sclerosis, based on EULAR standards

Objective. SSc is clinically and aetiopathogenically heterogeneous. Consensus standards for more uniform trial design and selection of outcome measures are needed. The objective of this study was to develop evidence-based points to consider (PTCs) for future clinical trials in SSc. Methods. Thirteen international SSc experts experienced in SSc clinical trial design were invited to participate. One researcher with experience in systematic literature review and three trainees were also included. A systematic review using PubMed and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials was conducted and PTCs when designing clinical trials in SSc were developed. As part of that development we conducted an Internet-based Delphi exercise regarding the main points to be made in the consensus statement. Consensus was defined as achieving a median score of ≥7 of 9. Results. By consensus, the experts decided to develop PTCs for each individual organ system. The current document provides a unifying outline on PTCs regarding general trial design, inclusion/exclusion criteria and analysis. Consensus was achieved regarding all the main points of the PTCs. Conclusion. Using European League Against Rheumatism suggestions for PTCs, a general outline for PTCs for controlled clinical trials in SSc was developed. Specific outlines for individual organ systems are to be published separately. This general outline should lead to more uniform and higher-quality trials and clearly delineate areas where further research is neede

Citrobacter rodentium Subverts ATP Flux and Cholesterol Homeostasis in Intestinal Epithelial Cells In Vivo.

The intestinal epithelial cells (IECs) that line the gut form a robust line of defense against ingested pathogens. We investigated the impact of infection with the enteric pathogen Citrobacter rodentium on mouse IEC metabolism using global proteomic and targeted metabolomics and lipidomics. The major signatures of the infection were upregulation of the sugar transporter Sglt4, aerobic glycolysis, and production of phosphocreatine, which mobilizes cytosolic energy. In contrast, biogenesis of mitochondrial cardiolipins, essential for ATP production, was inhibited, which coincided with increased levels of mucosal O2 and a reduction in colon-associated anaerobic commensals. In addition, IECs responded to infection by activating Srebp2 and the cholesterol biosynthetic pathway. Unexpectedly, infected IECs also upregulated the cholesterol efflux proteins AbcA1, AbcG8, and ApoA1, resulting in higher levels of fecal cholesterol and a bloom of Proteobacteria. These results suggest that C. rodentium manipulates host metabolism to evade innate immune responses and establish a favorable gut ecosystem

ECM crosslinking enhances fibroblast growth and protects against matrix proteolysis in lung fibrosis

Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is characterised by accumulation of extra cellular matrix (ECM) proteins and fibroblast proliferation. ECM cross-linking enzymes have been implicated in fibrotic diseases and we hypothesised that the ECM in IPF is abnormally cross-linked which enhances fibroblast growth and resistance to normal ECM turnover. We used a combination of in vitro ECM preparations and in vivo assays to examine the expression of cross-linking enzymes and the effect of their inhibitors on fibroblast growth and ECM turnover. Lysyl oxidase like 1, 2, 3 and 4 were expressed equally in control and IPF derived fibroblasts. Transglutaminase 2 was more strongly expressed in IPF fibroblasts. Lysyl oxidase like 2, transglutaminase 2 and transglutaminase generated cross-links were strongly expressed in IPF lung tissue. Fibroblasts grown on IPF ECM had higher LOXL3 protein expression and transglutaminase activity compared with those grown on control ECM. IPF derived ECM also enhanced fibroblast adhesion and proliferation compared with control ECM. Inhibition of lysyl oxidase and transglutaminse activity during ECM formation affected ECM structure as visualised by electron microscopy and reduced the enhanced fibroblast adhesion and proliferation of IPF ECM to control levels. Inhibition of transglutaminase, but not lysyl oxidase activity, enhanced the turnover of ECM in vitro. In bleomycin treated mice, during the post-inflammatory fibrotic phase, inhibition of transglutaminases was associated with a reduction in whole lung collagen. Our findings suggest that the ECM in IPF may enhance pathological cross-linking which contributes to increased fibroblast growth, resistance to normal ECM turnover to drive lung fibrosis

JINGLE V: Dust properties of nearby galaxies derived from hierarchical Bayesian SED fitting

We study the dust properties of 192 nearby galaxies from the JINGLE survey using photometric data in the 22-850μm range. We derive the total dust mass, temperature T and emissivity index β of the galaxies through the fitting of their spectral energy distribution (SED) using a single modified black-body model (SMBB). We apply a hierarchical Bayesian approach that reduces the known degeneracy between T and β. Applying the hierarchical approach, the strength of the T-β anti-correlation is reduced from a Pearson correlation coefficient R = -0.79 to R = -0.52. For the JINGLE galaxies we measure dust temperatures in the range 17 - 30 K and dust emissivity indices β in the range 0.6 - 2.2. We compare the SMBB model with the broken emissivity modified black-body (BMBB) and the two modified black-bodies (TMBB) models. The results derived with the SMBB and TMBB are in good agreement, thus applying the SMBB, which comes with fewer free parameters, does not penalize the measurement of the cold dust properties in the JINGLE sample. We investigate the relation between T and β and other global galaxy properties in the JINGLE and Herschel Reference Survey (HRS) sample. We find that β correlates with the stellar mass surface density (R = 0.62) and anti-correlates with the HI mass fraction (MHI/M*, R = -0.65), whereas the dust temperature correlates strongly with the SFR normalized by the dust mass (R = 0.73). These relations can be used to estimate T and β in galaxies with insufficient photometric data available to measure them directly through SED fitting