Evidence and Ideology in Macroeconomics: The Case of Investment Cycles

The paper reports the principal findings of a long term research project on the description and explanation of business cycles. The research strongly confirmed the older view that business cycles have large systematic components that take the form of investment cycles. These quasi-periodic movements can be represented as low order, stochastic, dynamic processes with complex eigenvalues. Specifically, there is a fixed investment cycle of about 8 years and an inventory cycle of about 4 years. Maximum entropy spectral analysis was employed for the description of the cycles and continuous time econometrics for the explanatory models. The central explanatory mechanism is the second order accelerator, which incorporates adjustment costs both in relation to the capital stock and the rate of investment. By means of parametric resonance it was possible to show, both theoretically and empirically how cycles aggregate from the micro to the macro level. The same mathematical tool was also used to explain the international convergence of cycles. I argue that the theory of investment cycles was abandoned for ideological, not for evidential reasons. Methodological issues are also discussed

Critical Exponents of the pure and random-field Ising models

We show that current estimates of the critical exponents of the three-dimensional random-field Ising model are in agreement with the exponents of the pure Ising system in dimension 3 - theta where theta is the exponent that governs the hyperscaling violation in the random case.Comment: 9 pages, 4 encapsulated Postscript figures, REVTeX 3.

High-statistics finite size scaling analysis of U(1) lattice gauge theory with Wilson action

We describe the results of a systematic high-statistics Monte-Carlo study of finite-size effects at the phase transition of compact U(1) lattice gauge theory with Wilson action on a hypercubic lattice with periodic boundary conditions. We find unambiguously that the critical exponent nu is lattice-size dependent for volumes ranging from 4^4 to 12^4. Asymptotic scaling formulas yield values decreasing from nu(L >= 4) = 0.33 to nu(L >= 9) = 0.29. Our statistics are sufficient to allow the study of different phenomenological scenarios for the corrections to asymptotic scaling. We find evidence that corrections to a first-order transition with nu=0.25 provide the most accurate description of the data. However the corrections do not follow always the expected first-order pattern of a series expansion in the inverse lattice volume V^{-1}. Reaching the asymptotic regime will require lattice sizes greater than L=12. Our conclusions are supported by the study of many cumulants which all yield consistent results after proper interpretation.Comment: revtex, 12 pages, 9 figure

Science and Ideology in Economic, Political, and Social Thought

This paper has two sources: One is my own research in three broad areas: business cycles, economic measurement and social choice. In all of these fields I attempted to apply the basic precepts of the scientific method as it is understood in the natural sciences. I found that my effort at using natural science methods in economics was met with little understanding and often considerable hostility. I found economics to be driven less by common sense and empirical evidence, then by various ideologies that exhibited either a political or a methodological bias, or both. This brings me to the second source: Several books have appeared recently that describe in historical terms the ideological forces that have shaped either the direct areas in which I worked, or a broader background. These books taught me that the ideological forces in the social sciences are even stronger than I imagined on the basis of my own experiences. The scientific method is the antipode to ideology. I feel that the scientific work that I have done on specific, long standing and fundamental problems in economics and political science have given me additional insights into the destructive role of ideology beyond the history of thought orientation of the works I will be discussing

New England Medical Center Posterior Circulation Stroke Registry: I. Methods, Data Base, Distribution of Brain Lesions, Stroke Mechanisms, and Outcomes

Among 407 New England Medical Center Posterior Circulation Registry (NEMC-PCR) patients, 59% had strokes without transient ischemic attacks (TIAs), 24% had TIAs before strokes, and 16% had only posterior circulation TIAs. Embolism was the commonest stroke mechanism accounting for 40% of cases (24% cardiac origin, 14% arterial origin, 2% had potential cardiac and arterial sources). In 32%, large artery occlusive lesions caused hemodynamic brain infarction. Stroke mechanisms in the posterior and anterior circulation are very similar. Infarcts most often included the distal posterior circulation territory (rostral brainstem, superior cerebellum and occipital and temporal lobes), while the proximal (medulla and posterior inferior cerebellum) and middle (pons and anterior inferior cerebellum) territories were equally involved. Infarcts that included the distal territory were twice as common as those that included the proximal or middle territories. Most distal territory infarcts were attributable to embolism. Thirty day mortality was low (3.6%). Embolic stroke mechanism, distal territory location, and basilar artery occlusive disease conveyed the worst prognosis

Mechanisms of Cognitive Impairment in Cerebral Small Vessel Disease: Multimodal MRI Results from the St George's Cognition and Neuroimaging in Stroke (SCANS) Study.

Cerebral small vessel disease (SVD) is a common cause of vascular cognitive impairment. A number of disease features can be assessed on MRI including lacunar infarcts, T2 lesion volume, brain atrophy, and cerebral microbleeds. In addition, diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) is sensitive to disruption of white matter ultrastructure, and recently it has been suggested that additional information on the pattern of damage may be obtained from axial diffusivity, a proposed marker of axonal damage, and radial diffusivity, an indicator of demyelination. We determined the contribution of these whole brain MRI markers to cognitive impairment in SVD. Consecutive patients with lacunar stroke and confluent leukoaraiosis were recruited into the ongoing SCANS study of cognitive impairment in SVD (n = 115), and underwent neuropsychological assessment and multimodal MRI. SVD subjects displayed poor performance on tests of executive function and processing speed. In the SVD group brain volume was lower, white matter hyperintensity volume higher and all diffusion characteristics differed significantly from control subjects (n = 50). On multi-predictor analysis independent predictors of executive function in SVD were lacunar infarct count and diffusivity of normal appearing white matter on DTI. Independent predictors of processing speed were lacunar infarct count and brain atrophy. Radial diffusivity was a stronger DTI predictor than axial diffusivity, suggesting ischaemic demyelination, seen neuropathologically in SVD, may be an important predictor of cognitive impairment in SVD. Our study provides information on the mechanism of cognitive impairment in SVD

Ampullary cancers harbor ELF3 tumor suppressor gene mutations and exhibit frequent WNT dysregulation

The ampulla of Vater is a complex cellular environment from which adenocarcinomas arise to form a group of histopathologically heterogenous tumors. To evaluate the molecular features of these tumors, 98 ampullary adenocarcinomas were evaluated and compared to 44 distal bile duct and 18 duodenal adenocarcinomas. Genomic analyses revealed mutations in the WNT signaling pathway among half of the patients and in all three adenocarcinomas irrespective of their origin and histological morphology. These tumors were characterized by a high frequency of inactivating mutations of ELF3, a high rate of microsatellite instability, and common focal deletions and amplifications, suggesting common attributes in the molecular pathogenesis are at play in these tumors. The high frequency of WNT pathway activating mutation, coupled with small-molecule inhibitors of β-catenin in clinical trials, suggests future treatment decisions for these patients may be guided by genomic analysis

Genetic predictors of acute toxicities related to radiation therapy following lumpectomy for breast cancer: a case-series study

INTRODUCTION: The cytotoxic effects of radiation therapy are mediated primarily through increased formation of hydroxyl radicals and reactive oxygen species, which can damage cells, proteins and DNA; the glutathione S-transferases (GSTs) function to protect against oxidative stress. We hypothesized that polymorphisms encoding reduced or absent activity in the GSTs might result in greater risk for radiation-associated toxicity. METHODS: Women receiving therapy in radiation units in Germany following lumpectomy for breast cancer (1998–2001) provided a blood sample and completed an epidemiological questionnaire (n = 446). Genotypes were determined using Sequonom MALDI-TOF (GSTA1, GSTP1) and Masscode (GSTM1, GSTT1). Biologically effective radiotherapy dose (BED) was calculated, accounting for differences in fractionation and overall treatment time. Side effects considered were grade 2c and above, as classified using the modified Common Toxicity Criteria. Predictors of toxicity were modelled using Cox regression models in relation to BED, with adjustment for treating clinic, photon field, beam energy and boost method, and potential confounding variables. RESULTS: Low activity GSTP1 genotypes were associated with a greater than twofold increase in risk for acute skin toxicities (adjusted hazard ratio 2.28, 95% confidence interval 1.04–4.99). No associations were noted for the other GST genotypes. CONCLUSION: These data indicate that GSTP1 plays an important role in protecting normal cells from damage associated with radiation therapy. Studies examining the effects of GSTP1 polymorphisms on toxicity, recurrence and survival will further inform individualized therapeutics based on genotypes

Effects of Renal Denervation vs Sham in Resistant Hypertension after Medication Escalation:Prespecified Analysis at 6 Months of the RADIANCE-HTN TRIO Randomized Clinical Trial

IMPORTANCE: Although early trials of endovascular renal denervation (RDN) for patients with resistant hypertension (RHTN) reported inconsistent results, ultrasound RDN (uRDN) was found to decrease blood pressure (BP) vs sham at 2 months in patients with RHTN taking stable background medications in the Study of the ReCor Medical Paradise System in Clinical Hypertension (RADIANCE-HTN TRIO) trial. OBJECTIVES: To report the prespecified analysis of the persistence of the BP effects and safety of uRDN vs sham at 6 months in conjunction with escalating antihypertensive medications. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This randomized, sham-controlled, clinical trial with outcome assessors and patients blinded to treatment assignment, enrolled patients from March 11, 2016, to March 13, 2020. This was an international, multicenter study conducted in the US and Europe. Participants with daytime ambulatory BP of 135/85 mm Hg or higher after 4 weeks of single-pill triple-combination treatment (angiotensin-receptor blocker, calcium channel blocker, and thiazide diuretic) with estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of 40 mL/min/1.73 m(2 )or greater were randomly assigned to uRDN or sham with medications unchanged through 2 months. From 2 to 5 months, if monthly home BP was 135/85 mm Hg or higher, standardized stepped-care antihypertensive treatment starting with aldosterone antagonists was initiated under blinding to treatment assignment. INTERVENTIONS: uRDN vs sham procedure in conjunction with added medications to target BP control. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Six-month change in medications, change in daytime ambulatory systolic BP, change in home systolic BP adjusted for baseline BP and medications, and safety. RESULTS: A total of 65 of 69 participants in the uRDN group and 64 of 67 participants in the sham group (mean [SD] age, 52.4 [8.3] years; 104 male [80.6%]) with a mean (SD) eGFR of 81.5 (22.8) mL/min/1.73 m(2) had 6-month daytime ambulatory BP measurements. Fewer medications were added in the uRDN group (mean [SD], 0.7 [1.0] medications) vs sham (mean [SD], 1.1 [1.1] medications; P = .045) and fewer patients in the uRDN group received aldosterone antagonists at 6 months (26 of 65 [40.0%] vs 39 of 64 [60.9%]; P = .02). Despite less intensive standardized stepped-care antihypertensive treatment, mean (SD) daytime ambulatory BP at 6 months was 138.3 (15.1) mm Hg with uRDN vs 139.0 (14.3) mm Hg with sham (additional decreases of −2.4 [16.6] vs −7.0 [16.7] mm Hg from month 2, respectively), whereas home SBP was lowered to a greater extent with uRDN by 4.3 mm Hg (95% CI, 0.5-8.1 mm Hg; P = .03) in a mixed model adjusting for baseline and number of medications. Adverse events were infrequent and similar between groups. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this study, in patients with RHTN initially randomly assigned to uRDN or a sham procedure and who had persistent elevation of BP at 2 months after the procedure, standardized stepped-care antihypertensive treatment escalation resulted in similar BP reduction in both groups at 6 months, with fewer additional medications required in the uRDN group. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT0264942

The process of recovery of people with mental illness: The perspectives of patients, family members and care providers: Part 1

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>It is a qualitative design study that examines points of divergence and convergence in the perspectives on recovery of 36 participants or 12 triads. Each triad comprising a patient, a family member/friend, a care provider and documents the procedural, analytic of triangulating perspectives as a means of understanding the recovery process which is illustrated by four case studies. Variations are considered as they relate to individual characteristics, type of participant (patient, family, member/friend and care provider), and mental illness. This paper which is part of a larger study and is based on a qualitative research design documents the process of recovery of people with mental illness: Developing a Model of Recovery in Mental Health: A middle range theory.</p> <p><b>Methods</b></p> <p>Data were collected in field notes through semi-structured interviews based on three interview guides (one for patients, one for family members/friends, and one for caregivers). Cross analysis and triangulation methods were used to analyse the areas of convergence and divergence on the recovery process of all triads.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In general, with the 36 participants united in 12 triads, two themes emerge from the cross-analysis process or triangulation of data sources (12 triads analysis in 12 cases studies). Two themes emerge from the analysis process of the content of 36 interviews with participants: (1) <it>Revealing dynamic context</it>, situating patients in their dynamic context; and (2) <it>Relationship issues in a recovery process</it>, furthering our understanding of such issues. We provide four case studies examples (among 12 cases studies) to illustrate the variations in the way recovery is perceived, interpreted and expressed in relation to the different contexts of interaction.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The perspectives of the three participants (patients, family members/friends and care providers) suggest that recovery depends on constructing meaning around mental illness experiences and that the process is based on each person's dynamic context (e.g., social network, relationship), life experiences and other social determinants (e.g., symptoms, environment). The findings of this study add to existing knowledge about the determinants of the recovery of persons suffering with a mental illness and significant other utilizing public mental health services in Montreal, Canada.</p