Sudden gains in internet cognitive therapy for social anxiety disorder in routine clinical practice

Background: Sudden gains are large symptom improvements between consecutive therapy sessions. They have been shown to occur in randomised controlled trials of internet-delivered psychological interventions, but little is known about their occurrence when such treatments are delivered in routine clinical practice. Objective: This study examined the occurrence of sudden gains in a therapist-guided internet-delivered Cognitive Therapy intervention for social anxiety disorder (iCT-SAD) delivered in the UK NHS talking therapies for anxiety and depression (formerly known as IAPT services). It aimed to assess whether sudden gains were associated with better therapy outcomes, and examine changes in process variables around the period of sudden gains. Methods: The study examined sudden gains based on the Liebowitz Social Anxiety Scale. Of 193 treated patients, 146 provided sufficient data to permit analysis. Linear mixed effects models were used to examine the impact of sudden gains on clinical outcomes, and examine changes in negative social cognitions, self-focused attention, and depressed mood. Results: Seventy sudden gains were found among 57 participants. The occurrence rate of sudden gains was 39 %. Individuals who experienced sudden gains had a larger reduction in social anxiety symptoms at end of intervention and at three-month follow-up. There was evidence of a reduction in the frequency of negative social cognitions prior to the gain, whereas changes in self-focused attention occurred simultaneously with the gain. Depressed mood did not show significant changes over these timepoints. Conclusions: Approximately 2 in 5 patients experienced a sudden gain whilst accessing the iCT-SAD intervention in routine practice. They were associated with better clinical outcomes following treatment compared to those who did not experience a sudden gain

Ultra-High Energy Neutrino Fluxes: New Constraints and Implications

We apply new upper limits on neutrino fluxes and the diffuse extragalactic component of the GeV gamma-ray flux to various scenarios for ultra high energy cosmic rays and neutrinos. As a result we find that extra-galactic top-down sources can not contribute significantly to the observed flux of highest energy cosmic rays. The Z-burst mechanism where ultra-high energy neutrinos produce cosmic rays via interactions with relic neutrinos is practically ruled out if cosmological limits on neutrino mass and clustering apply.Comment: 10 revtex pages, 9 postscript figure

Ensemble evaluation of hydrological model hypotheses

It is demonstrated for the first time how model parameter, structural and data uncertainties can be accounted for explicitly and simultaneously within the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) methodology. As an example application, 72 variants of a single soil moisture accounting store are tested as simplified hypotheses of runoff generation at six experimental grassland field-scale lysimeters through model rejection and a novel diagnostic scheme. The fields, designed as replicates, exhibit different hydrological behaviors which yield different model performances. For fields with low initial discharge levels at the beginning of events, the conceptual stores considered reach their limit of applicability. Conversely, one of the fields yielding more discharge than the others, but having larger data gaps, allows for greater flexibility in the choice of model structures. As a model learning exercise, the study points to a “leaking” of the fields not evident from previous field experiments. It is discussed how understanding observational uncertainties and incorporating these into model diagnostics can help appreciate the scale of model structural error

Searching for physics beyond the Standard Model through the dipole interaction

The magnetic dipole interaction played a central role in the development of QED, and continued in that role for the Standard Model. The muon anomalous magnetic moment has served as a benchmark for models of new physics, and the present experimental value is larger than the standard-model value by more than three standard deviations. The electric dipole moment (EDM) violates parity ({$P$}) and time-reversal ({$T$}) symmetries, and in the context of the $CPT$ theorem, the combination of charge conjugation and parity ($CP$). Since a new source of {$CP$} violation outside of that observed in the $K$ and $B$ meson systems is needed to help explain the baryon asymmetry of the universe, searches for EDMs are being carried out worldwide on a number of systems. The standard-model value of the EDM is immeasurably small, so any evidence for an EDM would signify the observation of new physics. Unique opportunities exist for EDM searches using polarized proton, deuteron or muon beams in storage rings. This talk will provide an overview of the theory of dipole moments, and the relevant experiments. The connection to the transition dipole moment that could produce lepton flavor violating interactions such as $\mu^+ \rightarrow e^+ \gamma$ is also mentioned.Comment: Invited Plenary talk at the 19th International Spin Physics Symposium, Juelic