Winter Habitat Quality but not Long- distance Dispersal Influences Apparent Reproductive Success in a Migratory Bird

Long- distance breeding and natal dispersal play central roles in many ecological and evolutionary processes, including gene flow, population dynamics, range expansion, and individual responses to fluctuating biotic and abiotic conditions. However, the relative contribution of long- distance dispersal to these processes depends on the ability of dispersing individuals to successfully reproduce in their new environment. Unfortunately, due to the difficulties associated with tracking dispersal in the field, relatively little is known about its reproductive consequences. Furthermore, because reproductive success is influenced by a variety of processes, disentangling the influence of each of these processes is critical to understanding the direct consequences of dispersal. In this study, we used stable hydrogen and carbon isotopes to estimate long- distance dispersal and winter territory quality in a migratory bird, the American Redstart (Setophaga ruticilla). We then applied Aster life-history models to quantify the strength of influence of these factors on apparent reproductive success. We found no evidence that male or female reproductive success was lower for long- distance dispersers relative to non- dispersing individuals. In contrast, carry- over effects from the winter season did influence male, but not female, reproductive success. Use of Aster models further revealed that for adult males, winter territory quality influenced the number of offspring produced whereas for yearling males, high- quality winter territories were associated with higher mating and nesting success. These results suggest that although long- distance natal and breeding dispersal carry no immediate reproductive cost for American Redstarts, reproductive success in this species may ultimately be limited by the quality of winter habitat

Modeling Spatially and Temporally Complex Range Dynamics When Detection is Imperfect

Species distributions are determined by the interaction of multiple biotic and abiotic factors, which produces complex spatial and temporal patterns of occurrence. As habitats and climate change due to anthropogenic activities, there is a need to develop species distribution models that can quantify these complex range dynamics. In this paper, we develop a dynamic occupancy model that uses a spatial generalized additive model to estimate non-linear spatial variation in occupancy not accounted for by environmental covariates. The model is flexible and can accommodate data from a range of sampling designs that provide information about both occupancy and detection probability. Output from the model can be used to create distribution maps and to estimate indices of temporal range dynamics. We demonstrate the utility of this approach by modeling long-term range dynamics of 10 eastern North American birds using data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey. We anticipate this framework will be particularly useful for modeling species’ distributions over large spatial scales and for quantifying range dynamics over long temporal scales

Migratory Behavior and Winter Geography Drive Differential Range Shifts of Eastern Birds in Response to Recent Climate Change

Over the past half century, migratory birds in North America have shown divergent population trends relative to resident species, with the former declining rapidly and the latter increasing. The role that climate change has played in these observed trends is not well understood, despite significant warming over this period. We used 43 y of monitoring data to fit dynamic species distribution models and quantify the rate of latitudinal range shifts in 32 species of birds native to eastern North America. Since the early 1970s, species that remain in North America throughout the year, including both resident and migratory species, appear to have responded to climate change through both colonization of suitable area at the northern leading edge of their breeding distributions and adaption in place at the southern trailing edges. Neotropical migrants, in contrast, have shown the opposite pattern: contraction at their southern trailing edges and no measurable shifts in their northern leading edges. As a result, the latitudinal distributions of temperate-wintering species have increased while the latitudinal distributions of neotropical migrants have decreased. These results raise important questions about the mechanisms that determine range boundaries of neotropical migrants and suggest that these species may be particularly vulnerable to future climate change. Our results highlight the potential importance of climate change during the nonbreeding season in constraining the response of migratory species to temperature changes at both the trailing and leading edges of their breeding distributions. Future research on the interactions between breeding and nonbreeding climate change is urgently needed

DebriSat - A Planned Laboratory-Based Satellite Impact Experiment for Breakup Fragment Characterizations

The goal of the DebriSat project is to characterize fragments generated by a hypervelocity collision involving a modern satellite in low Earth orbit (LEO). The DebriSat project will update and expand upon the information obtained in the 1992 Satellite Orbital Debris Characterization Impact Test (SOCIT), which characterized the breakup of a 1960 s US Navy Transit satellite. There are three phases to this project: the design and fabrication of DebriSat - an engineering model representing a modern, 60-cm/50-kg class LEO satellite; conduction of a laboratory-based hypervelocity impact to catastrophically break up the satellite; and characterization of the properties of breakup fragments down to 2 mm in size. The data obtained, including fragment size, area-to-mass ratio, density, shape, material composition, optical properties, and radar cross-section distributions, will be used to supplement the DoD s and NASA s satellite breakup models to better describe the breakup outcome of a modern satellite

DebriSat - A Planned Laboratory-Based Satellite Impact Experiment

No abstract availabl

Estimability of Migration Survival Rates from Integrated Breeding and Winter Capture–Recapture Data

Long‐distance migration is a common phenomenon across the animal kingdom but the scale of annual migratory movements has made it difficult for researchers to estimate survival rates during these periods of the annual cycle. Estimating migration survival is particularly challenging for small‐bodied species that cannot carry satellite tags, a group that includes the vast majority of migratory species. When capture–recapture data are available for linked breeding and non‐breeding populations, estimation of overall migration survival is possible but current methods do not allow separate estimation of spring and autumn survival rates. Recent development of a Bayesian integrated survival model has provided a method to separately estimate the latent spring and autumn survival rates using capture–recapture data, though the accuracy and precision of these estimates has not been formally tested. Here, I used simulated data to explore the estimability of migration survival rates using this model. Under a variety of biologically realistic scenarios, I demonstrate that spring and autumn migration survival can be estimated from the integrated survival model, though estimates are biased toward the overall migration survival probability. The direction and magnitude of this bias are influenced by the relative difference in spring and autumn survival rates as well as the degree of annual variation in these rates. The inclusion of covariates can improve the model’s performance, especially when annual variation in migration survival rates is low. Migration survival rates can be estimated from relatively short time series (4–5 years), but bias and precision of estimates are improved when longer time series (10–12 years) are available. The ability to estimate seasonal survival rates of small, migratory organisms opens the door to advancing our understanding of the ecology and conservation of these species. Application of this method will enable researchers to better understand when mortality occurs across the annual cycle and how the migratory periods contribute to population dynamics. Integrating summer and winter capture data requires knowledge of the migratory connectivity of sampled populations and therefore efforts to simultaneously collect both survival and tracking data should be a high priority, especially for species of conservation concern

Data from: Habitat features and long-distance dispersal modify the use of social information by a long-distance migratory bird

1. The processes by which individuals select breeding sites have important consequences for individual tness as well as population- and community-dynamics. Although there is increasing evidence that many animal species use information acquired from conspecics to assess the suitability of potential breeding sites, little is known about how the use of this social information is modified by biotic and abiotic conditions. 2. We used an automated playback experiment to simulate two types of social information, post-breeding public information and pre-breeding location cues, to determine the relative importance of these cues for breeding site selection by a migratory songbird, the American redstart (Setophaga ruticilla). In addition, we used stable hydrogen isotopes to determine the dispersal status of individuals that responded to our experimental treatments and quantify whether long-distance dispersers use different social cues to select breeding sites compared to philopatric individuals. 3. We found that points that received pre-breeding location cue treatments were signi cantly more likely to be settled by redstarts than control points that received no playback. However, we found no evidence the redstarts used post-breeding public information gathered during one season to select breeding sites the following year. Breeding site habitat structure was also a strong predictor of settlement probability, indicating that redstarts modi ed the use of social information based on habitat cues. Furthermore, stable hydrogen isotope signatures from individuals that responded to location cue treatments suggest that long-distance dispersers may rely more heavily on these cues than local recruits. 4. Collectively, these results indicate that redstarts use multiple sources of information to select breeding sites, which could buffer individuals from selecting suboptimal sites when they breed in unfamiliar locations or when habitat quality becomes decoupled from social cues

Habitat Features and Long-distance Dispersal Modify the Use of Social Information by a Long-distance Migratory Bird

The processes by which individuals select breeding sites have important consequences for individual tness as well as population- and community-dynamics. Although there is increasing evidence that many animal species use information acquired from conspecics to assess the suitability of potential breeding sites, little is known about how the use of this social information is modified by biotic and abiotic conditions. We used an automated playback experiment to simulate two types of social information, post-breeding public information and pre-breeding location cues, to determine the relative importance of these cues for breeding site selection by a migratory songbird, the American redstart (Setophaga ruticilla). In addition, we used stable hydrogen isotopes to determine the dispersal status of individuals that responded to our experimental treatments and quantify whether long-distance dispersers use different social cues to select breeding sites compared to philopatric individuals. We found that points that received pre-breeding location cue treatments were signi cantly more likely to be settled by redstarts than control points that received no playback. However, we found no evidence the redstarts used post-breeding public information gathered during one season to select breeding sites the following year. Breeding site habitat structure was also a strong predictor of settlement probability, indicating that redstarts modi ed the use of social information based on habitat cues. Furthermore, stable hydrogen isotope signatures from individuals that responded to location cue treatments suggest that long-distance dispersers may rely more heavily on these cues than local recruits. Collectively, these results indicate that redstarts use multiple sources of information to select breeding sites, which could buffer individuals from selecting suboptimal sites when they breed in unfamiliar locations or when habitat quality becomes decoupled from social cues

Dispersal Data

Total number of individuals and the number of immigrants under the 4:1, 9:1, and 19:1 odds ratios. First row corresponds to the general populations, second row to individuals that responded to location cue treatment