Assessing the value of seasonal hydrological forecasts for improving water resource management:insights from a pilot application in the UK

Improved skill of long-range weather forecasts have motivated an increasing effort towards developing seasonal hydrological forecasting systems across Europe. Among other purposes, such forecasting systems are expected to support better water management decisions. In this paper we evaluate the potential use of a real-time optimisation system (RTOS) informed by seasonal forecasts in a water supply system in the UK. For this purpose, we simulate the performances of the RTOS fed by ECMWF seasonal forecasting systems (SEAS5) over the past ten years, and we compare them to a benchmark operation that mimics the common practices for reservoir operation in the UK. We also attempt to link the improvement of system performances, i.e. the forecast value, to the forecast skill (measured by the mean error and the Continuous Ranked Probability Skill Score) as well as other factors such as bias correction, the decision maker priorities, hydrological conditions and level of uncertainty consideration. We find that some of these factors control the forecast value much more strongly than the forecast skill. For the (realistic) scenario where the decision-maker prioritises water resource availability over energy cost reductions, we identify clear operational benefits from using seasonal forecasts, provided that forecast uncertainty is explicitly considered. However, when comparing the use of ECMWF-SEAS5 products to ensemble streamflow predictions (ESP), which are more easily derived from historical weather data, we find that ESP remains a hard-to-beat reference not only in terms of skill but also in terms of value

Characterization of Prepreg Tack for Composite Manufacturing by Automated Fiber Placement

Automated fiber placement (AFP) has become the industry standard for large-scale production of carbon fiber reinforced plastics (CFRP) to improve rate and reduce defects associated with manual layup. Still, defects generated during AFP processes require manual, painstaking inspection by technicians and rework of the part when substantial defects are found. Prepreg (carbon fiber infused with uncured epoxy resin) tack is one of the primary factors that influences the generation of defects that arise during auto-mated fiber placement (AFP). Tack, as it relates to AFP processes and defect formation, can be understood as a combination of two stages, cohesion and decohesion. During the cohesion phase, two pieces of prepreg are brought into contact under elevated temperature and pressure. Compaction of the resin within the contact area will result in a degree of intimate contact, I, between the mating prepreg surfaces. Defect formation, as a result of decohesion between prepreg surfaces, occurs after the cohesion phase and arises due to stress from events such as fiber placement over an existing defect, on a contoured path, etc. (Figure 1). Tack strength resists the displacement of prepreg on a surface due to stresses developed during deposition

Improving equity of experience in distance education for students with challenges accessing online learning environments

There is a legal requirement (Equality Act, 2010) to provide students who have declared disabilities with reasonable adjustments which address their learning needs. An Advance HE report on making reasonable adjustments (Falsinger & Bryford, 2010) recommends including ‘resources available’. Reading on screen can lead to difficulties focusing, e.g., when reading through text interspersed with images and links (Habib et al., 2012). This can also mean studying takes longer, which itself can be a barrier due to the impact on workloads and can negatively affect quality of life leading to stress and anxiety (Lambert & Dryer, 2018). Accessibility can be improved for students with barriers to studying online-only materials through producing printed versions of the materials (“print packs”). Typically, print packs improve accessibility for students with a range of declared disabilities (e.g., sight conditions; chronic migraine; chronic physical pain or fatigue). This research evaluates the use, utility, and efficacy of print packs as a reasonable adjustment to some disabled students and students in secure environments (SiSE) on Earth and Environmental Science modules. We investigated (2021/22) how students used print packs and the problems and benefits associated with them, through scrutiny of institutional data, a student survey, and focus groups with Associate Lecturers tutoring the students, and student support staff. Institutional data for a large, year 1 science module over 2 presentations revealed higher submission rates and performance among SiSE using print packs compared with the whole module cohort; however, the same metrics were lower than the whole cohort for students using print packs as an adjustment for a disability. An online survey of students using print packs (13 responses / 43, 30%) highlighted that the majority use them for over half their study time. Comments revealed students blended study of the printed materials with shorter periods of access to interactive online content and synchronous / asynchronous tuition. 23% reported having received advice on how to make best use of print packs

Exploring student perceptions of employability skills development using radar charts in first year science

Development of employability skills is globally expected in undergraduate students; this is frequently approached through Personal Development Planning (PDP). However, science graduates are often reported as lacking the skills necessary for graduate employment. An online distance learning first-year science module required students to use radar charts for PDP in each assessment. An online questionnaire evaluated students’ perceptions of their employability skills development, and the efficacy of radar charts as a means of recording this. The questionnaire was sent to 636 students and 115 responded; this report is a thematic analysis of the open text questions. Students recognised development of several employability skills, though some found difficulty due to lack of self-confidence and challenges participating in asynchronous group work. A proportion of students found radar charts easy to use, though the majority used them to gain marks. Students found benchmarking their skills at module start challenging, and would benefit from more support with this, as well as the option to use other means of recording PDP

Diet Composition: A Proximate Mechanism Explaining Stream Salamander Declines in Surface Waters with Elevated Specific Conductivity

Changes in land use, such as mountaintop removal mining with valley fills (MTR-VF), often results in headwater streams with elevated specific conductivity (SC). Stream salamanders appear to be particularly sensitive to elevated SC, as previous studies have shown occupancy and abundance decline consistently among all species and life stages as SC increases. Yet, the proximate mechanism responsible for the population declines in streams with elevated SC have eluded researchers. We sampled salamander assemblages across a continuous SC gradient (30–1966 μS/cm) in southeastern Kentucky and examined the diet of larval and adult salamanders to determine if the ratio of aquatic to terrestrial prey (autochthony), total prey volume, aquatic prey importance (Ix), and body condition are influenced by SC. Further, we asked if threshold points for each diet component were present along a gradient of SC. Larval salamanders experienced a 12–fold decline in autochthony at 153 μS/cm, a 4.2–fold decline in total prey volume at 100 μS/cm, a 2.2-fold decline in aquatic Ix at 135 μS/cm, and a rapid decline in body condition as SC increased. Adult salamanders experienced a 3–fold decline in autochthony at 382 μS/cm, no change in prey volumes, a 2-fold decline in aquatic Ix at 163 μS/cm, and a decline in body condition as SC increased. Our results indicate that SC indirectly affects stream salamander populations by changing the composition of diet, which suggests that food availability is a proximate mechanism that leads to reduced population occupancy, abundance, and persistence in streams with elevated SC

Occupancy and Abundance of Stream Salamanders along a Specific Conductance Gradient

In the Central Appalachians (USA), mountaintop-removal mining accompanied by valley fills often leads to streams with elevated specific conductivity (SC). Thus, the ionic composition of freshwaters in this region is hypothesized to be a driver of the distribution and abundance of freshwater taxa, including stream salamanders. We examined the association between SC and stream salamander populations by conducting salamander counts in 30 southeastern Kentucky streams across a continuous gradient of SC that ranged from 30 to 1966 μS/cm. We counted 2319 salamanders across 5 species and, using a hierarchical Bayesian version of the N-mixture model, found a negative association between SC and salamander occupancy rates. This finding was consistent across adults and larvae of the 5 species we examined. Furthermore, we found that most salamander species and life stages showed reduced abundances given occupancy at greater SC levels. For example, estimated mean abundance given occupancy of larval Southern Two-lined Salamanders (Eurycea cirrigera) was 67.69 (95% credible interval 48.31–98.25) ind/10 m at 250 μS/cm and 2.30 (95% credible interval 1.46–3.93) ind/10 m at 2000 μS/cm. The consistent negative association across all species and life stages supports the hypothesis that salamander distributions and abundances are negatively associated with elevated SC of streams in southeastern Kentucky, even though physical and chemical environmental attributes, such as forest cover within stream catchments, were correlated with SC. Restoration of streams affected by mountaintop-removal mining should focus on restoring the ionic compositions that naturally occur in this region

Comparative behavioral ecotoxicology of Inland Silverside larvae exposed to pyrethroids across a salinity gradient

Pyrethroids, a class of commonly used insecticides, are frequently detected in aquatic environments, including estuaries. The influence that salinity has on organism physiology and the partitioning of hydrophobic chemicals, such as pyrethroids, has driven interest in how toxicity changes in saltwater compared to freshwater. Early life exposures in fish to pyrethroids cause toxicity at environmentally relevant concentrations, which can alter behavior. Behavior is a highly sensitive endpoint that influences overall organism fitness and can be used to detect toxicity of environmentally relevant concentrations of aquatic pollutants. Inland Silversides (Menidia beryllina), a commonly used euryhaline model fish species, were exposed from 5 days post fertilization (~1-day pre-hatch) for 96 h to six pyrethroids: bifenthrin, cyfluthrin, cyhalothrin, cypermethrin, esfenvalerate and permethrin. Exposures were conducted at three salinities relevant to brackish, estuarine habitat (0.5, 2, and 6 PSU) and across 3 concentrations, either 0.1, 1, 10, and/or 100 ng/L, plus a control. After exposure, Inland Silversides underwent a behavioral assay in which larval fish were subjected to a dark and light cycle stimuli to determine behavioral toxicity. Assessment of total distanced moved and thigmotaxis (wall hugging), used to measure hyper/hypoactivity and anxiety like behavior, respectively, demonstrate that even at the lowest concentration of 0.1 ng/L pyrethroids can induce behavioral changes at all salinities. We found that toxicity decreased as salinity increased for all pyrethroids except permethrin. Additionally, we found evidence to suggest that the relationship between log KOW and thigmotaxis is altered between the lower and highest salinities

Impact of dams and climate change on suspended sediment flux to the Mekong delta

The livelihoods of millions of people living in the world's deltas are deeply interconnected with the sediment dynamics of these deltas. In particular a sustainable supply of fluvial sediments from upstream is critical for ensuring the fertility of delta soils and for promoting sediment deposition that can offset rising sea levels. Yet, in many large river catchments this supply of sediment is being threatened by the planned construction of large dams. In this study, we apply the INCA hydrological and sediment model to the Mekong River catchment in South East Asia. The aim is to assess the impact of several large dams (both existing and planned) on the suspended sediment fluxes of the river. We force the INCA model with a climate model to assess the interplay of changing climate and sediment trapping caused by dam construction. The results show that historical sediment flux declines are mostly caused by dams built in PR China and that sediment trapping will increase in the future due to the construction of new dams in PDR Lao and Cambodia. If all dams that are currently planned for the next two decades are built, they will induce a decline of suspended sediment flux of 50% (47–53% 90% confidence interval (90%CI)) compared to current levels (99 Mt/year at the delta apex), with potentially damaging consequences for local livelihoods and ecosystems

Novel mutations in TARDBP (TDP-43) in patients with familial amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.

The TAR DNA-binding protein 43 (TDP-43) has been identified as the major disease protein in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) and frontotemporal lobar degeneration with ubiquitin inclusions (FTLD-U), defining a novel class of neurodegenerative conditions: the TDP-43 proteinopathies. The first pathogenic mutations in the gene encoding TDP-43 (TARDBP) were recently reported in familial and sporadic ALS patients, supporting a direct role for TDP-43 in neurodegeneration. In this study, we report the identification and functional analyses of two novel and one known mutation in TARDBP that we identified as a result of extensive mutation analyses in a cohort of 296 patients with variable neurodegenerative diseases associated with TDP-43 histopathology. Three different heterozygous missense mutations in exon 6 of TARDBP (p.M337V, p.N345K, and p.I383V) were identified in the analysis of 92 familial ALS patients (3.3%), while no mutations were detected in 24 patients with sporadic ALS or 180 patients with other TDP-43-positive neurodegenerative diseases. The presence of p.M337V, p.N345K, and p.I383V was excluded in 825 controls and 652 additional sporadic ALS patients. All three mutations affect highly conserved amino acid residues in the C-terminal part of TDP-43 known to be involved in protein-protein interactions. Biochemical analysis of TDP-43 in ALS patient cell lines revealed a substantial increase in caspase cleaved fragments, including the approximately 25 kDa fragment, compared to control cell lines. Our findings support TARDBP mutations as a cause of ALS. Based on the specific C-terminal location of the mutations and the accumulation of a smaller C-terminal fragment, we speculate that TARDBP mutations may cause a toxic gain of function through novel protein interactions or intracellular accumulation of TDP-43 fragments leading to apoptosis

Diaryl- and triaryl-pyrrole derivatives:Inhibitors of the MDM2-p53 and MDMX-p53 protein-protein interactions

Screening identified 2-(3-((4,6-dioxo-2-thioxotetrahydropyrimidin-5(2H)-ylidene)methyl)-2,5-dimethyl-1H-pyrrol-1-yl)-4,5,6,7-tetrahydrobenzo[b]thiophene-3-carbonitrile as an MDM2–p53 inhibitor (IC(50) = 12.3 μM). MDM2–p53 and MDMX–p53 activity was seen for 5-((1-(4-chlorophenyl)-2,5-diphenyl-1H-pyrrol-3-yl)methylene)-2-thioxodihydropyrimidine-4,6(1H,5H)-dione (MDM2 IC(50) = 0.11 μM; MDMX IC(50) = 4.2 μM) and 5-((1-(4-nitrophenyl)-2,5-diphenyl-1H-pyrrol-3-yl)methylene)pyrimidine-2,4,6(1H,3H,5H)-trione (MDM2 IC(50) = 0.15 μM; MDMX IC(50) = 4.2 μM), and cellular activity consistent with p53 activation in MDM2 amplified cells. Further SAR studies demonstrated the requirement for the triarylpyrrole moiety for MDMX–p53 activity but not for MDM2–p53 inhibition