On the Prediction of Extreme Ecological Events

Ecological studies often focus on average effects of environmental factors, but ecological dynamics may depend as much upon environmental extremes. Ecology would therefore benefit from the ability to predict the frequency and severity of extreme environmental events. Some extreme events (e.g., earthquakes) are simple events: either they happen or they don\u27t, and they are generally difficult to predict. In contrast, extreme ecological events are often compound events, resulting from the chance coincidence of run-of-the-mill factors. Here we present an environmental bootstrap method for resampling short-term environmental data (rolling the environmental dice) to calculate an ensemble of hypothetical time series that embodies how the physical environment could potentially play out differently. We use this ensemble in conjunction with mechanistic models of physiological processes to analyze the biological consequences of environmental extremes. Our resampling method provides details of these consequences that would be difficult to obtain otherwise, and our methodology can be applied to a wide variety of ecological systems. Here, we apply this approach to calculate return times for extreme hydrodynamic and thermal events on intertidal rocky shores. Our results demonstrate that the co-occurrence of normal events can indeed lead to environmental extremes, and that these extremes can cause disturbance. For example, the limpet Lottia gigantea and the mussel Mytilus californianus are co-dominant competitors for space on wave-swept rocky shores, but their response to extreme environmental events differ. Limpet mortality can vary drastically through time. Average yearly maximum body temperature of L. gigantea on horizontal surfaces is low, sufficient to kill fewer than 5% of individuals, but on rare occasions environmental factors align by chance to induce temperatures sufficient to kill \u3e99% of limpets. In contrast, mussels do not exhibit large temporal variation in the physical disturbance caused by breaking waves, and this difference in the pattern of disturbance may have ecological consequences for these competing species. The effect of environmental extremes is under added scrutiny as the frequency of extreme events increases in response to anthropogenically forced climate change. Our method can be used to discriminate between chance events and those caused by long-term shifts in climate

Ability to Swim (Not Morphology or Environment) Explains Interspecific Differences in Crinoid Arm Regrowth

Regrowth of body parts occurs in almost every phylum of the animal kingdom, but variation in this process across environmental, morphological, and behavioral gradients remains poorly understood. We examined regeneration patterns in feather stars – a group known for a wide range of morphologies and behaviors and up to a forty-fold difference in arm regeneration rates – and found that the variation in arm regeneration rates is best explained by swimming ability, not temperature, food supply, morphology (total number of arms and number of regenerating arms), or degree of injury. However, there were significant interactive effects of morphology on rates of regeneration of the main effect (swimming ability). Notably, swimmers grew up to three-fold faster than non-swimmers. The temperate feather star Florometra serratissima regenerated faster under warmer scenarios, but its rates fell within that of the tropical species suggesting temperature can account for intraspecific but not interspecific differences. We urge comparative molecular investigations of crinoid regeneration to identify the mechanisms responsible for the observed interspecific differences, and potentially address gaps in stem cell research

Can we predict ectotherm responses to climate change using thermal performance curves and body temperatures?

Thermal performance curves (TPCs), which quantify how an ectotherm\u27s body temperature (Tb ) affects its performance or fitness, are often used in an attempt to predict organismal responses to climate change. Here, we examine the key - but often biologically unreasonable - assumptions underlying this approach; for example, that physiology and thermal regimes are invariant over ontogeny, space and time, and also that TPCs are independent of previously experienced Tb. We show how a critical consideration of these assumptions can lead to biologically useful hypotheses and experimental designs. For example, rather than assuming that TPCs are fixed during ontogeny, one can measure TPCs for each major life stage and incorporate these into stage-specific ecological models to reveal the life stage most likely to be vulnerable to climate change. Our overall goal is to explicitly examine the assumptions underlying the integration of TPCs with Tb , to develop a framework within which empiricists can place their work within these limitations, and to facilitate the application of thermal physiology to understanding the biological implications of climate change

Motion analysis of match-play in elite U12 to U16 age-group soccer players

The aim of this study was to quantify the motion demands of match-play in elite U12 to U16 age-group soccer players. Altogether, 112 players from two professional soccer clubs at five age-group levels (U12–U16) were monitored during competitive matches (n=14) using a 5 Hz non-differential global positioning system (NdGPS). Velocity thresholds were normalized for each age-group using the mean squad times for a flying 10 m sprint test as a reference point. Match performance was reported as total distance, high-intensity distance, very high-intensity distance, and sprint distance. Data were reported both in absolute (m) and relative (m min-1) terms due to a rolling substitute policy. The U15 (1.35±0.09 s) and U16 (1.31±0.06 s) players were significantly quicker than the U12 (1.58±0.10 s), U13 (1.52±0.07 s), and U14 (1.51±0.08 s) players in the flying 10 m sprint test (P U12, U13, U14), high-intensity distance (U16 > U12, U13, U14, U15), very high-intensity distance (U16 4 U12, U13), and sprint distance (U16 > U12, U13) than their younger counterparts (P<0.05). When the data are considered relative to match exposure, few differences are apparent. Training prescription for youth soccer players should consider the specific demands of competitive match-play in each age-group

A qualitative evidence synthesis of employees' views of workplace smoking reduction or cessation interventions

Background The need to reduce smoking rates is a recognised public health policy issue in many countries. The workplace offers a potential context for offering smokers’ programmes and interventions to assist smoking cessation or reduction. A qualitative evidence synthesis of employees’ views about such programmes might explain why some interventions appear effective and others not, and can be used to develop evidence-based interventions for this population and setting. Methods A qualitative evidence synthesis of primary research exploring employees’ views about workplace interventions to encourage smoking cessation, including both voluntary programmes and passive interventions, such as restrictions or bans. The method used was theory-based “best fit” framework synthesis. Results Five relevant theories on workplace smoking cessation were identified and used as the basis for an a priori framework. A comprehensive literature search, including interrogation of eight databases, retrieved 747 unique citations for the review. Fifteen primary research studies of qualitative evidence were found to satisfy the inclusion criteria. The synthesis produced an evidence-based conceptual model explaining employees’ experiences of, and preferences regarding, workplace smoking interventions. Conclusion The synthesis suggests that workplace interventions should employ a range of different elements if they are to prove effective in reducing smoking among employees. This is because an employee who feels ready and able to change their behaviour has different needs and preferences from an employee who is not at that stage. Only a multi-faceted intervention can satisfy the requirements of all employees

Aiming at the global elimination of viral hepatitis:challenges along the care continuum

Abstract A recent international workshop, organized by the authors, analyzed the obstacles facing the ambitious goal of eliminating viral hepatitis globally. We identified several policy areas critical to reaching elimination targets. These include providing hepatitis B birth-dose vaccination to all infants within 24 hours of birth, preventing the transmission of blood-borne viruses through the expansion of national hemovigilance schemes, implementing the lessons learned from the HIV epidemic regarding safe medical practices to eliminate iatrogenic infection, adopting point-of-care testing to improve coverage of diagnosis, and providing free or affordable hepatitis C treatment to all. We introduce Egypt as a case study for rapid testing and treatment scale-up: this country offers valuable insights to policy makers internationally, not only regarding how hepatitis C interventions can be expeditiously scaled-up, but also as a guide for how to tackle the problems encountered with such ambitious testing and treatment programs.</jats:p

"Best fit" framework synthesis: refining the method

Background Following publication of the first worked example of the “best fit” method of evidence synthesis for the systematic review of qualitative evidence in this journal, the originators of the method identified a need to specify more fully some aspects of this particular derivative of framework synthesis. Methods and Results We therefore present a second such worked example in which all techniques are defined and explained, and their appropriateness is assessed. Specified features of the method include the development of new techniques to identify theories in a systematic manner; the creation of an a priori framework for the synthesis; and the “testing” of the synthesis. An innovative combination of existing methods of quality assessment, analysis and synthesis is used to complete the process. This second worked example was a qualitative evidence synthesis of employees’ views of workplace smoking cessation interventions, in which the “best fit” method was found to be practical and fit for purpose. Conclusions The method is suited to producing context-specific conceptual models for describing or explaining the decision-making and health behaviours of patients and other groups. It offers a pragmatic means of conducting rapid qualitative evidence synthesis and generating programme theories relating to intervention effectiveness, which might be of relevance both to researchers and policy-makers

The North American tree-ring fire-scar network

Fire regimes in North American forests are diverse and modern fire records are often too short to capture important patterns, trends, feedbacks, and drivers of variability. Tree-ring fire scars provide valuable perspectives on fire regimes, including centuries-long records of fire year, season, frequency, severity, and size. Here, we introduce the newly compiled North American tree-ring fire-scar network (NAFSN), which contains 2562 sites, >37,000 fire-scarred trees, and covers large parts of North America. We investigate the NAFSN in terms of geography, sample depth, vegetation, topography, climate, and human land use. Fire scars are found in most ecoregions, from boreal forests in northern Alaska and Canada to subtropical forests in southern Florida and Mexico. The network includes 91 tree species, but is dominated by gymnosperms in the genus Pinus. Fire scars are found from sea level to >4000-m elevation and across a range of topographic settings that vary by ecoregion. Multiple regions are densely sampled (e.g., >1000 fire-scarred trees), enabling new spatial analyses such as reconstructions of area burned. To demonstrate the potential of the network, we compared the climate space of the NAFSN to those of modern fires and forests; the NAFSN spans a climate space largely representative of the forested areas in North America, with notable gaps in warmer tropical climates. Modern fires are burning in similar climate spaces as historical fires, but disproportionately in warmer regions compared to the historical record, possibly related to under-sampling of warm subtropical forests or supporting observations of changing fire regimes. The historical influence of Indigenous and non-Indigenous human land use on fire regimes varies in space and time. A 20th century fire deficit associated with human activities is evident in many regions, yet fire regimes characterized by frequent surface fires are still active in some areas (e.g., Mexico and the southeastern United States). These analyses provide a foundation and framework for future studies using the hundreds of thousands of annually- to sub-annually-resolved tree-ring records of fire spanning centuries, which will further advance our understanding of the interactions among fire, climate, topography, vegetation, and humans across North America

Particular genomic and virulence traits associated with preterm infant-derived toxigenic Clostridium perfringens strains

Clostridium perfringens is an anaerobic toxin-producing bacterium associated with intestinal diseases, particularly in neonatal humans and animals. Infant gut microbiome studies have recently indicated a link between C. perfringens and the preterm infant disease necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC), with specific NEC cases associated with overabundant C. perfringens termed C. perfringens-associated NEC (CPA-NEC). In the present study, we carried out whole-genome sequencing of 272 C. perfringens isolates from 70 infants across 5 hospitals in the United Kingdom. In this retrospective analysis, we performed in-depth genomic analyses (virulence profiling, strain tracking and plasmid analysis) and experimentally characterized pathogenic traits of 31 strains, including 4 from CPA-NEC patients. We found that the gene encoding toxin perfringolysin O, pfoA, was largely deficient in a human-derived hypovirulent lineage, as well as certain colonization factors, in contrast to typical pfoA-encoding virulent lineages. We determined that infant-associated pfoA + strains caused significantly more cellular damage than pfoA − strains in vitro, and further confirmed this virulence trait in vivo using an oral-challenge C57BL/6 murine model. These findings suggest both the importance of pfoA + C. perfringens as a gut pathogen in preterm infants and areas for further investigation, including potential intervention and therapeutic strategies

Variants at multiple loci implicated in both innate and adaptive immune responses are associated with Sjögren’s syndrome

Sjögren’s syndrome is a common autoimmune disease (~0.7% of European Americans) typically presenting as keratoconjunctivitis sicca and xerostomia. In addition to strong association within the HLA region at 6p21 (Pmeta=7.65×10−114), we establish associations with IRF5-TNPO3 (Pmeta=2.73×10−19), STAT4 (Pmeta=6.80×10−15), IL12A (Pmeta =1.17×10−10), FAM167A-BLK (Pmeta=4.97×10−10), DDX6-CXCR5 (Pmeta=1.10×10−8), and TNIP1 (Pmeta=3.30×10−8). Suggestive associations with Pmeta<5×10−5 were observed with 29 regions including TNFAIP3, PTTG1, PRDM1, DGKQ, FCGR2A, IRAK1BP1, ITSN2, and PHIP amongst others. These results highlight the importance of genes involved in both innate and adaptive immunity in Sjögren’s syndrome