Metrics of progress in the understanding and management of threats to Australian birds

Although evidence‐based approaches have become commonplace for determining the success of conservation measures for the management of threatened taxa, there are no standard metrics for assessing progress in research or management. We developed 5 metrics to meet this need for threatened taxa and to quantify the need for further action and effective alleviation of threats. These metrics (research need, research achievement, management need, management achievement, and percent threat reduction) can be aggregated to examine trends for an individual taxon or for threats across multiple taxa. We tested the utility of these metrics by applying them to Australian threatened birds, which appears to be the first time that progress in research and management of threats has been assessed for all threatened taxa in a faunal group at a continental scale. Some research has been conducted on nearly three‐quarters of known threats to taxa, and there is a clear understanding of how to alleviate nearly half of the threats with the highest impact. Some management has been attempted on nearly half the threats. Management outcomes ranged from successful trials to complete mitigation of the threat, including for one‐third of high‐impact threats. Progress in both research and management tended to be greater for taxa that were monitored or occurred on oceanic islands. Predation by cats had the highest potential threat score. However, there has been some success reducing the impact of cat predation, so climate change (particularly drought), now poses the greatest threat to Australian threatened birds. Our results demonstrate the potential for the proposed metrics to encapsulate the major trends in research and management of both threats and threatened taxa and provide a basis for international comparisons of evidence‐based conservation science

Potential Impacts on Accessibility and Consumer Surplus of Improvements of the European Railway System

AbstractIt is widely accepted that “transport infrastructure endowment influences competiveness of a Region; the provision of investment in transport infrastructure entails positive effects on productivity and growth, even if on the other side, heavy infrastructures (as railway lines) could affect negatively on the environment” (5th Cohesion Report, 2010). This article aims to explore the potential impact of improvements of the passenger rail network in order to evaluate how these could potentially increase accessibility and consumer surplus in EU regions; it summarizes the results of the model simulations carried out with a combination of the TRANSTOOLS rail network and the assignment module of Traffic Analyst.Three different scenarios have been tested by changing speeds on the whole network. The post-processing analysis has been carried out with utilities developed in Matlab, while the results for each zone (at NUTS3 level) have also been reported in easy-to-read ArcGIS maps. The outcomes provide insight into how the demand for passenger rail transport would react and where the highest benefits and costs, in terms of accessibility and consumer surplus gains, can be expected. This information, in turn, can be useful for the prioritization of investment needs and the identification of parts of the rail passenger market where new demand may be generated

DADA: data assimilation for the detection and attribution of weather and climate-related events

A new nudging method for data assimilation, delay‐coordinate nudging, is presented. Delay‐coordinate nudging makes explicit use of present and past observations in the formulation of the forcing driving the model evolution at each time step. Numerical experiments with a low‐order chaotic system show that the new method systematically outperforms standard nudging in different model and observational scenarios, also when using an unoptimized formulation of the delay‐nudging coefficients. A connection between the optimal delay and the dominant Lyapunov exponent of the dynamics is found based on heuristic arguments and is confirmed by the numerical results, providing a guideline for the practical implementation of the algorithm. Delay‐coordinate nudging preserves the easiness of implementation, the intuitive functioning and the reduced computational cost of the standard nudging, making it a potential alternative especially in the field of seasonal‐to‐decadal predictions with large Earth system models that limit the use of more sophisticated data assimilation procedures

Understanding the rapid summer warming and changes in temperature extremes since the mid-1990s over Western Europe

Analysis of observations indicates that there was a rapid increase in summer (June-August, JJA) mean surface air temperature (SAT) since the mid-1990s over Western Europe. Accompanying this rapid warming are significant increases in summer mean daily maximum temperature, daily minimum temperature, annual hottest day temperature and warmest night temperature, and an increase in frequency of summer days and tropical nights, while the change in the diurnal temperature range (DTR) is small. This study focuses on understanding causes of the rapid summer warming and associated temperature extreme changes. A set of experiments using the atmospheric component of the state-of-the-art HadGEM3 global climate model have been carried out to quantify relative roles of changes in sea surface temperature (SST)/sea ice extent (SIE), anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs), and anthropogenic aerosols (AAer). Results indicate that the model forced by changes in all forcings reproduces many of the observed changes since the mid-1990s over Western Europe. Changes in SST/SIE explain 62.2% ± 13.0% of the area averaged seasonal mean warming signal over Western Europe, with the remaining 37.8% ± 13.6% of the warming explained by the direct impact of changes in GHGs and AAer. Results further indicate that the direct impact of the reduction of AAer precursor emissions over Europe, mainly through aerosol-radiation interaction with additional contributions from aerosol-cloud interaction and coupled atmosphere-land surface feedbacks, is a key factor for increases in annual hottest day temperature and in frequency of summer days. It explains 45.5% ± 17.6% and 40.9% ± 18.4% of area averaged signals for these temperature extremes. The direct impact of the reduction of AAer precursor emissions over Europe acts to increase DTR locally, but the change in DTR is countered by the direct impact of GHGs forcing. In the next few decades, greenhouse gas concentrations will continue to rise and AAer precursor emissions over Europe and North America will continue to decline. Our results suggest that the changes in summer seasonal mean SAT and temperature extremes over Western Europe since the mid-1990s are most likely to be sustained or amplified in the near term, unless other factors intervene

Uncovering cryptic evolutionary diversity in extant and extinct populations of the southern Australian arid zone Western and Thick-billed Grasswrens (Passeriformes: Maluridae: Amytornis)

Published online: 08 June 2013The Western and Thick-billed Grasswrens (Aves: Passeriformes: Maluridae:Amytornis textilis and A. modestus, respectively) exemplify issues surrounding the evolution, biogeography and conservation of Australia's arid and semi-arid zone fauna. The two species together have historically occurred across much of southern Australia. They showed high intraspecific taxonomic diversity and short range endemism but suffered high rates of recent anthropogenic extinction. Of 11 named and one un-named subspecies, five are extinct and three are vulnerable or critically endangered. To clarify taxonomic issues, and to understand their pre-extinction phylogeography and identify extant populations and taxa of conservation value, we sequenced ~1000 bp of the mtDNA ND2 gene from all extant populations and all but one extinct population. We confirmed reciprocal monophyly of A. modestus and A. textilis and identified strong phylogeographic structure associated with morphological divergence within each species. Populations of A. t. myall at the western edge of their range in South Australia may preserve “ghost” lineages of extinct subspecies from Western Australia as a result of ancient gene flow. Our results support recent taxonomic revisions, and highlight the critical importance of including samples of extirpated populations and extinct species to fully understand and interpret extant diversity. Conservation and management plans should recognise and seek to preserve the unique evolutionary diversity present in surviving populations.Jeremy J. Austin, Leo Joseph, Lynn P. Pedler, Andrew B. Blac

Feasibility of an automated interview grounded in multiple mini interview (MMI) methodology for selection into the health professions: an international multimethod evaluation.

OBJECTIVES: Global, COVID-driven restrictions around face-to-face interviews for healthcare student selection have forced admission staff to rapidly adopt adapted online systems before supporting evidence is available. We have developed, what we believe is, the first automated interview grounded in multiple mini-interview (MMI) methodology. This study aimed to explore test-retest reliability, acceptability and usability of the system. DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Multimethod feasibility study in Physician Associate programmes from two UK and one US university during 2019-2020. PRIMARY, SECONDARY OUTCOMES: Feasibility measures (test-retest reliability, acceptability and usability) were assessed using intraclass correlation (ICC), descriptive statistics, thematic and content analysis. METHODS: Volunteers took (T1), then repeated (T2), the automated MMI, with a 7-day interval (±2) then completed an evaluation questionnaire. Admission staff participated in focus group discussions. RESULTS: Sixty-two students and seven admission staff participated; 34 students and 4 staff from UK and 28 students and 3 staff from US universities. Good-excellent test-retest reliability was observed at two sites (US and UK2) with T1 and T2 ICC between 0.65 and 0.81 (p<0.001) when assessed by individual total scores (range 80.6-119), station total scores 0.6-0.91, p<0.005 and individual site (≥0.79 p<0.001). Mean test re-test ICC across all three sites was 0.82 p<0.001 (95% CI 0.7 to 0.9). Admission staff reported potential to reduce resource costs and bias through a more objective screening tool for preselection or to replace some MMI stations in a 'hybrid model'. Maintaining human interaction through 'touch points' was considered essential. Users positively evaluated the system, stating it was intuitive with an accessible interface. Concepts chosen for dynamic probing needed to be appropriately tailored. CONCLUSION: These preliminary findings suggest that the system is reliable, generating consistent scores for candidates and is acceptable to end users provided human touchpoints are maintained. Thus, there is evidence for the potential of such an automated system to augment healthcare student selection

Feasibility of an automated interview grounded in Multiple Mini Interview (MMI) methodology for selection into the health professions: : an international multi-methods evaluation

Objectives: Global, Covid-driven restrictions around face-to-face interviews for healthcare student selection have forced admissions staff to rapidly adopt adapted online systems before supporting evidence is available. We have developed, what we believe is, the first automated interview grounded in Multiple Mini-Interview (MMI) methodology. This study aimed to explore test re-test reliability, acceptability, and usability of the system.Design, setting and participants: Multi-method feasibility study in Physician Associate (PA) programmes from two UK and one US university during 2019 - 2020.Primary, secondary outcomes: Feasibility measures (test-retest reliability acceptability and usability) were assessed using intra-class correlation (ICC), descriptive statistics, thematic and content analysis.Methods: Volunteers took (T1), then repeated (T2), the automated MMI, with a seven-day interval (+/- 2) then completed an evaluation questionnaire. Admissions staff participated in focus group discussions.Results: Sixty-two students and seven admission staff participated; 34 students and four staff from UK and 28 students and three staff from US universities.Good-excellent test-retest reliability was observed with T1 and T2 ICC between 0.62-0.81 (p<0.001) when assessed by individual total scores (range 80.6-119), station total scores 0.6-0.91, p<0.005, individual site (all ICC≥ 0.76 p<0.001) and mean test retest across sites 0.82 p<0.001 (95% CI 0.7-0.9).Admissions staff reported potential to reduce resource costs and bias through a more objective screening tool for pre-selection or to replace some MMI stations in a ‘hybrid model’. Maintaining human interaction through ‘touch points’ was considered essential.Users positively evaluated the system, stating it was intuitive with an accessible interface. Concepts chosen for dynamic probing needed to be appropriately tailored.Conclusion: These preliminary findings suggest that the system is reliable, generating consistent scores for candidates and is acceptable to end-users provided human touchpoints are maintained. Thus, there is evidence for the potential of such an automated system to augment healthcare student selection.Strengths and limitations of this study• The underpinning iterative theoretical approach enabled a responsive, dynamic design and development process for a new technology with no known precedent.• The conceptual leap from face-to-face or videoconference facilitated MMIs to a fully automated interview and assessment system may present barriers to stakeholders irrespective of the technology and its’ features.• The multi-method design provided for a diverse set of insights which have been essential to informing the progression of the technology.• We were unable to assess for potential differential performance within sub-groups, as would require a larger sample size

Omnichannel Value Chain: Mapping Digital Technologies for Channel Integration Activities

In order to provide a seamless customer experience, researchers and practitioners have proposed creation of an omnichannel retailing environment by integrating online and offline channels. Channel integration necessitates use of digital technologies and there are myriads of technological solutions available. However, retailers are struggling with selection and implementation of suitable technologies to add value through channel integration. Despite the strong practical need, this issue has not been effectively addressed in the academic literature. This paper presents an omnichannel value chain underpinned by Porter’s value chain model. We identify ten channel integration activities for value creation by carrying out a synthesis of current research on omnichannel retailing. Enabling digital technologies are then mapped to these activities using technology implementation examples and provide a guideline for retailers to select appropriate technologies for the identified value creation activities