Forecasting the severity of the Newfoundland iceberg season using a control systems model

The iceberg hazard for the Grand Banks area to the east of Newfoundland varies dramatically from one year to the next. In some years no icebergs penetrate south of 48°N, while in others well over 1000 icebergs enter the main shipping lanes between Europe and NE North America. Advance knowledge of this seasonal hazard would have major implications for ship routing, as well as the resources required for maintaining an effective ice hazard service. Here, a Windowed Error Reduction Ratio control system identification approach is used to forecast the severity of the 2018 iceberg season off Newfoundland, in terms of the predicted number of icebergs crossing 48°N, as well as to hindcast iceberg numbers for 2017. The best estimates are for 766 ± 297 icebergs crossing 48°N before the end of September 2017 and 685 ± 207 for 2018. These are both above the recent observed average of 592 icebergs for that date, and substantially so for 2017. Given the bimodal nature of the annual iceberg number, this means that our predictions for both 2017 and 2018 are for a high iceberg season, with a 71% level of confidence. However, it is most likely that the 2018 iceberg numbers will be somewhat less than 1000, while our higher hindcast for 2017 is consistent with the observed level of 1008. Our verification analysis, covering the 20-year period up to 2016, shows our model's correspondence to the high or low nature of the 48°N iceberg numbers is statistically robust to the 0.05% level, with a skill level of 80%

Hypothesis: Control of hepatic utilization of alanine by membrane transport or by cellular metabolism?

The rate of alanine transport into the liver limits its utilization even under the high alanine load resulting from a 90% casein diet, given that the rat has been adapted to that diet. A coordinated acceleration of alanine catabolism allows transport to remain ratelimiting. which in turn allows the adaptive regulation of transport to remain effective at high alanine loads. Accelerated degradation of alanine may change the hepatic amino acid content in a way that derepresses the activity of the alanine carrier system(s).Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/44189/1/10540_2005_Article_BF01140659.pd

An appropriate tool for entrepreneurial learning in SMEs? The case of the 20Twenty Leadership Programme

The 20Twenty Leadership Programme was developed by Cardiff Metropolitan University as an executive education programme to be delivered within South Wales to small businesses. It is funded by the European Social Fund (ESF) and administered by the Welsh European Funding Office and has the key aim of developing SME’s growth potential via a range of leadership and management skills, including a focus on ‘soft’ skills. The focus of this paper is to place the 20Twenty Leadership Programme within the wider context of entrepreneurship policy and SME training initiatives in particular, and then to examine the rationale and delivery methods of the Programme in relation to these. It also reflects on the Programme’s success (or otherwise) to date where possible. Finally, the paper seeks to suggest fruitful areas of further research both in terms of the 20Twenty Leadership Programme itself, but also with regard to evaluation in relation to other parallel programmes, and to SME training initiatives more generally

HGF Mediates the Anti-inflammatory Effects of PRP on Injured Tendons

Platelet-rich plasma (PRP) containing hepatocyte growth factor (HGF) and other growth factors are widely used in orthopaedic/sports medicine to repair injured tendons. While PRP treatment is reported to decrease pain in patients with tendon injury, the mechanism of this effect is not clear. Tendon pain is often associated with tendon inflammation, and HGF is known to protect tissues from inflammatory damages. Therefore, we hypothesized that HGF in PRP causes the anti-inflammatory effects. To test this hypothesis, we performed in vitro experiments on rabbit tendon cells and in vivo experiments on a mouse Achilles tendon injury model. We found that addition of PRP or HGF decreased gene expression of COX-1, COX-2, and mPGES-1, induced by the treatment of tendon cells in vitro with IL-1β. Further, the treatment of tendon cell cultures with HGF antibodies reduced the suppressive effects of PRP or HGF on IL-1β-induced COX-1, COX-2, and mPGES-1 gene expressions. Treatment with PRP or HGF almost completely blocked the cellular production of PGE2 and the expression of COX proteins. Finally, injection of PRP or HGF into wounded mouse Achilles tendons in vivo decreased PGE2 production in the tendinous tissues. Injection of platelet-poor plasma (PPP) however, did not reduce PGE2 levels in the wounded tendons, but the injection of HGF antibody inhibited the effects of PRP and HGF. Further, injection of PRP or HGF also decreased COX-1 and COX-2 proteins. These results indicate that PRP exerts anti-inflammatory effects on injured tendons through HGF. This study provides basic scientific evidence to support the use of PRP to treat injured tendons because PRP can reduce inflammation and thereby reduce the associated pain caused by high levels of PGE2. © 2013 Zhang et al

Gender-Related Differences in the Prevalence of Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factors and their Correlates in Urban Tanzania.

\ud Urban areas in Africa suffer a serious problem with dual burden of infectious diseases and emerging chronic diseases such as cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and diabetes which pose a serious threat to population health and health care resources. However in East Africa, there is limited literature in this research area. The objective of this study was to examine the prevalence of cardiovascular disease risk factors and their correlates among adults in Temeke, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. Results of this study will help inform future research and potential preventive and therapeutic interventions against such chronic diseases. The study design was a cross sectional epidemiological study. A total of 209 participants aged between 44 and 66 years were included in the study. A structured questionnaire was used to evaluate socioeconomic and lifestyle characteristics. Blood samples were collected and analyzed to measure lipid profile and fasting glucose levels. Cardiovascular risk factors were defined using World Health Organization criteria. The age-adjusted prevalence of obesity (BMI > or = 30) was 13% and 35%, among men and women (p = 0.0003), respectively. The prevalence of abdominal obesity was 11% and 58% (p < 0.0001), and high WHR (men: >0.9, women: >0.85) was 51% and 73% (p = 0.002) for men and women respectively. Women had 4.3 times greater odds of obesity (95% CI: 1.9-10.1), 14.2-fold increased odds for abdominal adiposity (95% CI: 5.8-34.6), and 2.8 times greater odds of high waist-hip-ratio (95% CI: 1.4-5.7), compared to men. Women had more than three-fold greater odds of having metabolic syndrome (p = 0.001) compared to male counterparts, including abdominal obesity, low HDL-cholesterol, and high fasting blood glucose components. In contrast, female participants had 50% lower odds of having hypertension, compared to men (95%CI: 0.3-1.0). Among men, BMI and waist circumference were significantly correlated with blood pressure, triglycerides, total, LDL-, and HDL-cholesterol (BMI only), and fasting glucose; in contrast, only blood pressure was positively associated with BMI and waist circumference in women. The prevalence of CVD risk factors was high in this population, particularly among women. Health promotion, primary prevention, and health screening strategies are needed to reduce the burden of cardiovascular disease in Tanzania.\u

Revisiting Synthesis Model of Sparse Audio Declipper

The state of the art in audio declipping has currently been achieved by SPADE (SParse Audio DEclipper) algorithm by Kiti\'c et al. Until now, the synthesis/sparse variant, S-SPADE, has been considered significantly slower than its analysis/cosparse counterpart, A-SPADE. It turns out that the opposite is true: by exploiting a recent projection lemma, individual iterations of both algorithms can be made equally computationally expensive, while S-SPADE tends to require considerably fewer iterations to converge. In this paper, the two algorithms are compared across a range of parameters such as the window length, window overlap and redundancy of the transform. The experiments show that although S-SPADE typically converges faster, the average performance in terms of restoration quality is not superior to A-SPADE

Upper- and mid-mantle interaction between the Samoan plume and the Tonga-Kermadec slabs

Mantle plumes are thought to play a key role in transferring heat from the core\u2013mantle boundary to the lithosphere, where it can significantly influence plate tectonics. On impinging on the lithosphere at spreading ridges or in intra-plate settings, mantle plumes may generate hotspots, large igneous provinces and hence considerable dynamic topography. However, the active role of mantle plumes on subducting slabs remains poorly understood. Here we show that the stagnation at 660 km and fastest trench retreat of the Tonga slab in Southwestern Pacific are consistent with an interaction with the Samoan plume and the Hikurangi plateau. Our findings are based on comparisons between 3D anisotropic tomography images and 3D petrological-thermo-mechanical models, which self-consistently explain several unique features of the Fiji\u2013Tonga region. We identify four possible slip systems of bridgmanite in the lower mantle that reconcile the observed seismic anisotropy beneath the Tonga slab (VSH4VSV) with thermo-mechanical calculations

Asteroseismology and Interferometry

Asteroseismology provides us with a unique opportunity to improve our understanding of stellar structure and evolution. Recent developments, including the first systematic studies of solar-like pulsators, have boosted the impact of this field of research within Astrophysics and have led to a significant increase in the size of the research community. In the present paper we start by reviewing the basic observational and theoretical properties of classical and solar-like pulsators and present results from some of the most recent and outstanding studies of these stars. We centre our review on those classes of pulsators for which interferometric studies are expected to provide a significant input. We discuss current limitations to asteroseismic studies, including difficulties in mode identification and in the accurate determination of global parameters of pulsating stars, and, after a brief review of those aspects of interferometry that are most relevant in this context, anticipate how interferometric observations may contribute to overcome these limitations. Moreover, we present results of recent pilot studies of pulsating stars involving both asteroseismic and interferometric constraints and look into the future, summarizing ongoing efforts concerning the development of future instruments and satellite missions which are expected to have an impact in this field of research.Comment: Version as published in The Astronomy and Astrophysics Review, Volume 14, Issue 3-4, pp. 217-36