Rigorous Validation of Hydrologic Models in Support of Decision-Making

Hydrologic models are often relied upon to inform decisions in hydrology and water resources applications. Typically, hydrologic models are validated (i.e., deemed fit-for-purpose) using the split-sample test introduced by Klemeš in 1986, where a model is shown to reproduce historical data that was not used in training the model. However, simple history matching is a necessary but insufficient condition to show reliability in decision-making, and there are many examples in the literature of models with excellent diagnostic metrics but insufficient skill for informing decisions. Furthermore, the current methods of model validation and uncertainty estimation are not easily understood by non-modellers, and decision-makers are often handed model outputs that are not in a readily usable form to inform decision-making. There exist many calls in literature for both the development of rigorous model validation methodologies, and techniques to address the gap between scientists and decision-makers. As a response to the gap in literature for new model validation methodologies and ways of improving communication between scientists and decision-makers, this thesis introduces Decision Crash Testing (DCT), which is capable of directly evaluating a model’s performance in a decision-making context. The DCT framework uses a series of synthetic reality experiments to recreate the model-building process and test whether the model correctly informs the decision in a set of hypothetical realities. These provide a baseline estimate of the difficulty of the decision and the probability that the model is capable of informing the correct decision, which is much more easily interpretable by decision-makers. The DCT framework is demonstrated using two case studies derived from reservoir management applications in an Ontario watershed. The development of the hydrologic models that underlie both case studies is a deviation from the typical approach of using level-pool routed inflow estimates for model calibration; instead, the observed stage data is calibrated to directly, and the reservoirs are explicitly represented in the hydrologic model. This method avoids some of the pitfalls of calibrating to estimated inflows with known numerical artefacts. The two case studies illustrate the ability of the DCT framework to assess the decision-making ability of the evaluated model, to provide a framework within which to meaningfully assess improvements the evaluated model for specific decision-making applications, and to test the impacts of various decision formulations on the ability of the model to inform decision-making

THE EXTENSION OF TORQUE SCHEDULER ALLOWING THE USE OF PLANNING AND OPTIMIZATION IN GRIDS

In this work we present a major extension of the open source TORQUE Resource Manager system. We have replaced a naive scheduler provided in the TORQUE distribution with complex scheduling system that allows to plan job execution ahead and predict the behavior of the system. It is based on the application of job schedule, which represents the jobs’ execution plan. Such a functionality is very useful as the plan can be used by the users to see when and where their jobs will be executed. Moreover, created plans can be easily evaluated in order to identify possible inefficiencies. Then, repair actions can be taken immediately and the inefficiencies can be fixed, producing better schedules with respect to considered criteria

Statistics between data science, artificial intelligence and big data: contributions of the colloquium “Make Statistics Great Again”

Die Statistik als fachliche Disziplin muss sich in einem rasch wandelnden Umfeld behaupten, das durch den Aufstieg der Data Science, den Bedeutungszuwachs der künstlichen Intelligenz sowie neue Datenstrukturen charakterisiert wird. Wie kann sich die Statistik hier behaupten oder verlorenes Terrain wiedergewinnen? Unter dem provokanten Motto „Make Statistics great again“ wurden aus verschiedenen Blickwinkeln Entwicklungen, Strategien und positive Beispiele skizziert, wie sich das Fach Statistik an der Universität, im Wissenschaftsbetrieb und auf dem Arbeitsmarkt positionieren sollte. Willi Seidel schaut aus dem Blickwinkel eines Hochschulpräsidenten auf den Ressourcenkampf der Fächer. Christine Müller berichtet über die Initiativen der Dachorganisation DAGStat die vielen Teildisziplinen der Statistik wirkungsvoll im Wissenschaftsbetrieb und in der Öffentlichkeit zu positionieren. Florian Meinfelder dokumentiert den Aufstieg des Masterstudiengangs in Survey Statistik zu einem der nachgefragtesten Studiengänge der Uni Bamberg. Jürgen Chlumsky und Markus Zwick beleuchten die historische Wahrnehmung der Amtsstatistik bei Pflichterhebungen und die Entwicklung der Forschungsdatenzentren sowie moderner Zugänge zu neuen Datenquellen. Joachim Wagner schildert das Verhältnis von Datenproduzenten und Datennutzern aus der Sicht eines unzufriedenen Datennutzers. Schließlich geht es um die Position der Statistik in der Datenwissenschaft. Ist „Data Science“ nur ein neumodisches Wort für Statistik? Ein Konzeptionspapier der Gesellschaft für Informatik (GI) hat zu Positionspapieren der DStatG und der DAGStat geführt, die von Ulrich Rendtel vorgestellt werden. Das Kolloquium fand anlässlich der Abschiedsvorlesung von Ulrich Rendtel im Juni 2019 am Fachbereich Wirtschaftswissenschaft der Freien Universität statt.Statistics as a subject has to sustain its position in a fast changing environment which is characterized by the rise of Data Science, the growth of the importance of Artificial Intelligence and the emergence of new Data Structures. How can Statistics keep its position or even regain lost territory? Under the provoking motto “Make Statistics great again” we sketch under different views developments, strategies and positive examples, how the subject statistics can evolve at universities, in scientific competition and at the labor market. Willi Seidel comments the competition of subjects for resources from the viewpoint of the head of a university. Christine Müller reports the initiatives of the DAGStat umbrella organization, to promote the different subbranches of statistics in the scientific competition and in the public view. Florian Meinfelder documents the rise of the master program of Survey Statistics to one of the most requested master programs at the university of Bamberg. Jürgen Chlumsky and Markus Zwick report the public notion of mandatory surveys of official statistics as well as the development of research data centers and alternative access to new data sources. Joachim Wagner comments the relationship of data producers and data users from the view of a discontent data analyst. Finally, the position of statistics in the subject data science is discussed. Is the term “Data Science” only a modern phrase for statistics? A White Paper of the Gesellschaft für Informatik (GI) has provoked two position papers of the DStatG and the DAGStat which are presented by Ulrich Rendtel. The colloquium took place at the farewell lecture of Ulrich Rendtel at the Economic Faculty of the Freie Universität Berlin in June 2019

Clinical and functional characteristics of individuals with alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency: EARCO international registry

Background: Alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency (AATD) is a rare disease that is associated with an increased risk of pulmonary emphysema. The European AATD Research Collaboration (EARCO) international registry was founded with the objective of characterising the individuals with AATD and investigating their natural history. Methods: The EARCO registry is an international, observational and prospective study of individuals with AATD, defined as AAT serum levels < 11 μM and/or proteinase inhibitor genotypes PI*ZZ, PI*SZ and compound heterozygotes or homozygotes of other rare deficient variants. We describe the characteristics of the individuals included from February 2020 to May 2022. Results: A total of 1044 individuals from 15 countries were analysed. The most frequent genotype was PI*ZZ (60.2%), followed by PI*SZ (29.2%). Among PI*ZZ patients, emphysema was the most frequent lung disease (57.2%) followed by COPD (57.2%) and bronchiectasis (22%). Up to 76.4% had concordant values of FEV1(%) and KCO(%). Those with impairment in FEV1(%) alone had more frequently bronchiectasis and asthma and those with impairment in KCO(%) alone had more frequent emphysema and liver disease. Multivariate analysis showed that advanced age, male sex, exacerbations, increased blood platelets and neutrophils, augmentation and lower AAT serum levels were associated with worse FEV1(%). Conclusions: EARCO has recruited > 1000 individuals with AATD from 15 countries in its first 2 years. Baseline cross sectional data provide relevant information about the clinical phenotypes of the disease, the patterns of functional impairment and factors associated with poor lung function.Funding: The International EARCO registry is funded by unrestricted grants of Grifols, CSL Behring, Kamada, pH Pharma and Takeda to the European Respiratory Society (ERS). Acknowledgements: The authors would like to thank the patients who participated in this study and the EARCO study investigators (listed below). We wish to acknowledge Elise Heuvelin from the ERS ofce (Lausanne, Switzterland) for her support in the management of EARCO, and Gemma Vilagut and Christina Founti (Bioclever, Barcelona, Spain) for their support in EARCO data monitoring. We also acknowledge the participation of Eduardo Loeb (Barcelona, Spain) in the development of the database and the monitoring of the data. List of EARCO study investigators: Georg-Christian Funk (Austria), Wim Jans sens, Silvia Pérez-Bogerd (Belgium), Leidy Prada (Colombia), Ana Hecomovic (Croatia), Eva Bartosovska, Jan Chlumsky, (Czech Republic), Alan Altraja, Jaanus Martti (Estonia), Angelo G. Corsico, Ilaria Ferrarotti, Simone Scarlata, Mario Malerba (Italy), Jan Stolk, Emily F van’t Wout (Netherlands), Joanna Chorowstoska-Wyminko (Poland), Catarina Guimaraes, Maria Sucena, Ana Caldas Raquel Marçoa, Isabel Ruivo dos Santos, Bebiana Conde, Maria Joana Reis Amado Maia Da Silva, Rita Boaventura (Portugal), Ruxandra Ulmeanu (Romania), María Torres-Duran, Marc Miravitlles, Miriam Barrecheguren, Juan Luis Rodriguez-Hermosa, Myriam Calle-Rubio, José María Hernández-Pérez, José Luis López-Campos, Francisco Casas-Maldonado, Ana Bustamante, Carlota Rodriguez-García, Cristina Martinez-González, Cruz González, Eva Tabernero, Lourdes Lázaro, Virginia Almadana, Mar Fernández-Nieto, Francisco Javier Michel de la Rosa, Carlos Martíez-Rivera, Layla Diab, María Isabel Parra (Spain), Hanan Tanash, Eeva Piitulainen (Sweden), Christian F. Clarenbach (Switzerland), Serap Argun Baris, Dilek Karadogan, Sebahat Genç (Turkey), Alice M. Turner, Beatriz Lara, David G. Parr (United Kingdom). EARCO Steering committee: Christian F Clarenbach and Marc Miravitlles (Co-chairs), Robert Bals, Jan Stolk, Joanna Chorostowska-Wynimko, Karen O’Hara, Marion Wilkens, José Luis López-Campos, Alice M. Turner, Ilaria Ferrarotti, Gerry McElvaney and Robert A. Stockle

The prevalence of bronchiectasis in patients with alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency: initial report of EARCO

Background: Although bronchiectasis has been recognised as a feature of some patients with Alpha1-Antitrypsin deficiency the prevalence and characteristics are not widely known. We wished to determine the prevalence of bronchiectasis and patient characteristics. The first cohort of patients recruited to the EARCO (European Alpha1 Research Collaboration) International Registry data base by the end of 2021 was analysed for radiological evidence of both emphysema and bronchiectasis as well as baseline demographic features. Results: Of the first 505 patients with the PiZZ genotype entered into the data base 418 (82.8%) had a reported CT scan. There were 77 (18.4%) with a normal scan and 38 (9.1%) with bronchiectasis alone. These 2 groups were predominantly female never smokers and had lung function in the normal range. The remaining 303 (72.5%) ZZ patients all had emphysema on the scan and 113 (27%) had additional evidence of bronchiectasis. Conclusions: The data indicates the bronchiectasis alone is a feature of 9.1% of patients with the PiZZ genotype of Alpha1-antitrypsin deficiency but although emphysema is the dominant lung pathology bronchiectasis is also present in 27% of emphysema cases and may require a different treatment strategy

Protocol for the EARCO Registry : a pan-European observational study in patients with α1-antitrypsin deficiency

Rationale and objectives Alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency (AATD) is a genetic condition that leads to an increased risk of emphysema and liver disease. Despite extensive investigation, there remain unanswered questions concerning the natural history, pathophysiology, genetics and the prognosis of the lung disease in association with AATD. The European Alpha-1 Clinical Research Collaboration (EARCO) is designed to bring together researchers from European countries and to create a standardised database for the follow-up of patients with AATD. Study design and population The EARCO Registry is a non-interventional, multicentre, pan-European, longitudinal observational cohort study enrolling patients with AATD. Data will be collected prospectively without interference/modification of patient's management by the study team. The major inclusion criterion is diagnosed severe AATD, defined by an AAT serum level <11 µM (50 mg·dL−1) and/or a proteinase inhibitor genotype ZZ, SZ or compound heterozygotes or homozygotes of other rare deficient variants. Assessments at baseline and during the yearly follow-up visits include lung function testing (spirometry, body plethysmography and diffusing capacity of the lung), exercise capacity, blood tests and questionnaires (symptoms, quality of life and physical activity). To ensure correct data collection, there will be designated investigator staff to document the data in the case report form. All data will be reviewed by the EARCO database manager. Summary The EARCO Registry aims to understand the natural history and prognosis of AATD better with the goal to create and validate prognostic tools to support medical decision-making

Tailored interventions based on sputum eosinophils versus clinical symptoms for asthma in children and adults

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