Reconstruction of debris flow in the Gerkhozhan-Su river valley based on the chain modeling

The paper presents the reconstruction of the most catastrophic debris flows in the Gerkhozhan-Su river valley (North Caucasus, Russia) based on a chain of mathematical models. Transport-shift model was applied for 6 sections of debris flow formation or intense material increment, while for the rest the FLO-2D hydrodynamic model was used. A number of numerical experiments were carried out in the transport-shift model for a section of a debris flow origination site with a change in the parameters of a potential debris flow-forming soils, such as initial moisture content and density. According to the simulation results, with a rise in moisture content, the maximum debris flow discharge can increase by about 2.8 times. Modeling of debris flow in the Gerkhozhan-Su river valley was conducted for the case of low density debris flow. Based on the results, debris flow wave hydrographs were obtained at 12 sections. The results of modeling are in general agreement with the commonly accepted reconstructed pattern of the debris flow in 2000 and values obtained by videomaterials

The effect of climate change on avian offspring production: A global meta-analysis

Climate change affects timing of reproduction in many bird species, but few studies have investigated its influence on annual reproductive output. Here, we assess changes in the annual production of young by female breeders in 201 populations of 104 bird species (N = 745,962 clutches) covering all continents between 1970 and 2019. Overall, average offspring production has declined in recent decades, but considerable differences were found among species and populations. A total of 56.7% of populations showed a declining trend in offspring production (significant in 17.4%), whereas 43.3% exhibited an increase (significant in 10.4%). The results show that climatic changes affect offspring production through compounded effects on ecological and life history traits of species. Migratory and larger-bodied species experienced reduced offspring production with increasing temperatures during the chick-rearing period, whereas smaller-bodied, sedentary species tended to produce more offspring. Likewise, multi-brooded species showed increased breeding success with increasing temperatures, whereas rising temperatures were unrelated to repro- ductive success in single-brooded species. Our study suggests that rapid declines in size of bird populations reported by many studies from different parts of the world are driven only to a small degree by changes in the production of young

Reconstruction of debris flow in the Gerkhozhan-Su river valley based on the chain modeling

The paper presents the reconstruction of the most catastrophic debris flows in the Gerkhozhan-Su river valley (North Caucasus, Russia) based on a chain of mathematical models. Transport-shift model was applied for 6 sections of debris flow formation or intense material increment, while for the rest the FLO-2D hydrodynamic model was used. A number of numerical experiments were carried out in the transport-shift model for a section of a debris flow origination site with a change in the parameters of a potential debris flow-forming soils, such as initial moisture content and density. According to the simulation results, with a rise in moisture content, the maximum debris flow discharge can increase by about 2.8 times. Modeling of debris flow in the Gerkhozhan-Su river valley was conducted for the case of low density debris flow. Based on the results, debris flow wave hydrographs were obtained at 12 sections. The results of modeling are in general agreement with the commonly accepted reconstructed pattern of the debris flow in 2000 and values obtained by videomaterials

Debris flows triggered from non-stationary glacier lake outbursts: the case of the Teztor Lake complex (Northern Tian Shan, Kyrgyzstan)

One of the most far-reaching glacier-related hazards inthe Tian Shan Mountains of Kyrgyzstan is glacial lake outburstfloods (GLOFs) and related debris flows. An improved under-standing of the formation and evolution of glacial lakes and debrisflow susceptibility is therefore essential to assess and mitigatepotential hazards and risks. Non-stationary glacier lakes may fillperiodically and quickly; the potential for them to outburst in-creases as water volume may change dramatically over very shortperiods of time. After the outburst or drainage of a lake, the entireprocess may start again, and thus these non-stationary lakes are ofparticular importance in the region. In this work, the Teztor lakecomplex, located in Northern Kyrgyzstan, was selected for theanalysis of outburst mechanisms of non-stationary glacial lakes,their formation, as well as the triggering of flows and developmentof debris flows and floods downstream of the lakes. The differentTeztor lakes are filled with water periodically, and according tofield observations, they tend to outburst every 9–10 years onaverage. The most important event in the area dates back to1953, and another important event occurred on July 31, 2012. Othersmaller outbursts have been recorded as well. Our study showsthat the recent GLOF in 2012 was caused by a combination ofintense precipitation during the days preceding the event and arapid rise in air temperatures. Analyses of features in the entrain-ment and depositional zones point to a total debris flow volume ofabout 200,000 m3, with discharge ranging from 145 to 340 m3s−1and flow velocities between 5 and 7 m s−1. Results of this study arekey for a better design of sound river corridor planning and for theassessment and mitigation of potential GLOF hazards and risks inthe region

Reactive sintering of highly-doped YAG/Nd3+ :YAG/YAG composite ceramics

Multilayer YAG/Nd3+:YAG/YAG composite laser ceramics were obtained by the reactive sintering in vacuum. The effect of the neodymium ion concentration (1–4 at.%) on the formation of defects and optical quality of composite ceramics was studied. It was found that neodymium ions modify densification kinetics during solid-state reactive sintering of the highly-doped Nd3+:YAG ceramics by decreasing shrinkage rate in the temperature range 1320–1350 °C. Differences in phase transformation kinetics during reactive sintering lead to generation of pores at the interface of adjacent layers which decrease the optical homogeneity of fabricated YAG/Nd3+:YAG/YAG composite ceramics. The influence of layered structure on the laser performance of optical ceramics was investigated. It was shown that the ceramics with multilayer composite architecture have slope efficiency almost twice as the single-layer ceramics with the same composition (22% and 12.5%, respectively)

Sudden large-volume detachments of low-angle mountain glaciers – more frequent than thought?

International audienceAbstract. The detachment of large parts of low-angle mountain glaciers resulting in massive ice–rock avalanches have so far been believed to be a unique type of event, made known to the global scientific community first for the 2002 Kolka Glacier detachment, Caucasus Mountains, and then for the 2016 collapses of two glaciers in the Aru range, Tibet. Since 2016, several so-far unrecognized low-angle glacier detachments have been recognized and described, and new ones have occurred. In the current contribution, we compile, compare, and discuss 20 actual or suspected large-volume detachments of low-angle mountain glaciers at 10 different sites in the Caucasus, the Pamirs, Tibet, Altai, the North American Cordillera, and the Southern Andes. Many of the detachments reached volumes in the order of 10–100 million m3. The similarities and differences between the presented cases indicate that glacier detachments often involve a coincidental combination of factors related to the lowering of basal friction, high or increasing driving stresses, concentration of shear stress, or low resistance to exceed stability thresholds. Particularly soft glacier beds seem to be a common condition among the observed events as they offer smooth contact areas between the glacier and the underlying substrate and are prone to till-strength weakening and eventually basal failure under high pore-water pressure. Partially or fully thawed glacier bed conditions and the presence of liquid water could thus play an important role in the detachments. Surface slopes of the detached glaciers range between around 10∘ and 20∘. This may be low enough to enable the development of thick and thus large-volume glaciers while also being steep enough to allow critical driving stresses to build up. We construct a simple slab model to estimate ranges of glacier slope and width above which a glacier may be able to detach when extensively losing basal resistance. From this model we estimate that all the detachments described in this study occurred due to a basal shear stress reduction of more than 50 %. Most of the ice–rock avalanches resulting from the detachments in this study have a particularly low angle of reach, down to around 5∘, likely due to their high ice content and connected liquefaction potential, the availability of soft basal slurries, and large amounts of basal water, as well as the smooth topographic setting typical for glacial valleys. Low-angle glacier detachments combine elements and likely also physical processes of glacier surges and ice break-offs from steep glaciers. The surge-like temporal evolution ahead of several detachments and their geographic proximity to other surge-type glaciers indicate the glacier detachments investigated can be interpreted as endmembers of the continuum of surge-like glacier instabilities. Though rare, glacier detachments appear to be more frequent than commonly thought and disclose, despite local differences in conditions and precursory evolutions, the fundamental and critical potential of low-angle soft glacier beds to fail catastrophically

Sudden large-volume detachments of low-angle mountain glaciers – more frequent than thought?

The detachment of large parts of low-angle mountain glaciers resulting in massive ice–rock avalanches have so far been believed to be a unique type of event, made known to the global scientific community first for the 2002 Kolka Glacier detachment, Caucasus Mountains, and then for the 2016 collapses of two glaciers in the Aru range, Tibet. Since 2016, several so-far unrecognized low-angle glacier detachments have been recognized and described, and new ones have occurred. In the current contribution, we compile, compare, and discuss 20 actual or suspected large-volume detachments of low-angle mountain glaciers at 10 different sites in the Caucasus, the Pamirs, Tibet, Altai, the North American Cordillera, and the Southern Andes. Many of the detachments reached volumes in the order of 10–100 million m3. The similarities and differences between the presented cases indicate that glacier detachments often involve a coincidental combination of factors related to the lowering of basal friction, high or increasing driving stresses, concentration of shear stress, or low resistance to exceed stability thresholds. Particularly soft glacier beds seem to be a common condition among the observed events as they offer smooth contact areas between the glacier and the underlying substrate and are prone to till-strength weakening and eventually basal failure under high pore-water pressure. Partially or fully thawed glacier bed conditions and the presence of liquid water could thus play an important role in the detachments. Surface slopes of the detached glaciers range between around 10∘ and 20∘. This may be low enough to enable the development of thick and thus large-volume glaciers while also being steep enough to allow critical driving stresses to build up. We construct a simple slab model to estimate ranges of glacier slope and width above which a glacier may be able to detach when extensively losing basal resistance. From this model we estimate that all the detachments described in this study occurred due to a basal shear stress reduction of more than 50 %. Most of the ice–rock avalanches resulting from the detachments in this study have a particularly low angle of reach, down to around 5∘, likely due to their high,ice content and connected liquefaction potential, the availability of soft basal slurries, and large amounts of basal water, as well as the smooth topographic setting typical for glacial valleys. Low-angle glacier detachments combine elements and likely also physical processes of glacier surges and ice break-offs from steep glaciers. The surge-like temporal evolution ahead of several detachments and their geographic proximity to other surge-type glaciers indicate the glacier detachments investigated can be interpreted as endmembers of the continuum of surge-like glacier instabilities. Though rare, glacier detachments appear to be more frequent than commonly thought and disclose, despite local differences in conditions and precursory evolutions, the fundamental and critical potential of low-angle soft glacier beds to fail catastrophically

Glacial lake inventory and lake outburst potential in Uzbekistan

Climate change has been shown to increase the number of mountain lakes across various mountain ranges in the World. In Central Asia, and in particular on the territory of Uzbekistan, a detailed assessment of glacier lakes and their evolution over time is, however lacking. For this reason we created the first detailed inventory of mountain lakes of Uzbekistan based on recent (2002–2014) satellite observations using WorldView-2, SPOT5, and IKONOS imagery with a spatial resolution from 2 to 10 m. This record was complemented with data from field studies of the last 50 years. The previous data were mostly in the form of inventories of lakes, available in Soviet archives, and primarily included localized in-situ data. The inventory of mountain lakes presented here, by contrast, includes an overview of all lakes of the territory of Uzbekistan. Lakes were considered if they were located at altitudes above 1500 m and if lakes had an area exceeding 100 m2. As in other mountain regions of the World, the ongoing increase of air temperatures has led to an increase in lake number and area. Moreover, the frequency and overall number of lake outburst events have been on the rise as well. Therefore, we also present the first outburst assessment with an updated version of well-known approaches considering local climate features and event histories. As a result, out of the 242 lakes identified on the territory of Uzbekistan, 15% are considered prone to outburst, 10% of these lakes have been assigned low outburst potential and the remainder of the lakes have an average level of outburst potential. We conclude that the distribution of lakes by elevation shows a significant influence on lake area and hazard potential. No significant differences, by contrast, exist between the distribution of lake area, outburst potential, and lake location with respect to glaciers by regions

The effect of climate change on avian offspring production: A global meta-analysis

Climate change affects timing of reproduction in many bird species, but few stud-ies have investigated its influence on annual reproductive output. Here, we assess changes in the annual production of young by female breeders in 201 populations of 104 bird species (N = 745,962 clutches) covering all continents between 1970 and 2019. Overall, average offspring production has declined in recent decades, but considerable differences were found among species and populations. A total of 56.7% of populations showed a declining trend in offspring production (significant in 17.4%), whereas 43.3% exhibited an increase (significant in 10.4%). The results show that climatic changes affect offspring production through compounded effects on ecological and life history traits of species. Migratory and larger-bodied species experienced reduced offspring production with increasing temperatures during the chick-rearing period, whereas smaller-bodied, sedentary species tended to produce more offspring. Likewise, multi-brooded species showed increased breeding success with increasing temperatures, whereas rising temperatures were unrelated to repro-ductive success in single-brooded species. Our study suggests that rapid declines in size of bird populations reported by many studies from different parts of the world are driven only to a small degree by changes in the production of young