Comparing Welfare Regime Changes: Living Standards and the Unequal Life Chances of Different Birth Cohorts

The cohort sustainability of welfare regimes is of central importance to most long-term analyses of welfare state reforms (see for example: Esping-Andersen et al., 2002). A complement to these analyses shows that changes in intra versus inter cohort inequalities are major outcomes or consequences of the trajectories of the different welfare regimes. Previous comparative research papers show the difference between France and the United-States, since the American intra-cohort inequalities have increased strongly for the last three decades, when the French case show less intra-cohort inequalities and more inter-cohort imbalances at the expense of younger generations of adults (Chauvel 2006). Here, we propose a comparison between the US, Danish, French, and Italian dynamics of distribution of after tax and transfers equivalised income by age, period and cohort, to assess how different welfare regimes gave different trade-offs between intra and inter cohort inequality. The Luxembourg Income Study (LIS) data are used to analyze the transformations of the intra cohort inequalities (based on interdecile ratios) and the changes in the cohort life chances. The main result is that the conservative and the familialistic welfare regimes are marked by more inter-cohort inequalities to the expense of young social generations, who are relatively impoverished, when the social-democrat and the liberal ones show less inter-cohort redistribution of resources, but increasing intra-cohort inequality, particularly in the case of the US. In terms of cohort sustainability of welfare regimes, the French and Italian dynamics seem to be unsustainable since the contemporary well-off seniors are flowed by impoverished mid-aged groups who will be poor seniors of the 2020s

The Hierarchical Age-Period-Cohort model: Why does it find the results that it finds?

It is claimed the hierarchical-age–period–cohort (HAPC) model solves the age–period–cohort (APC) identification problem. However, this is debateable; simulations show situations where the model produces incorrect results, countered by proponents of the model arguing those simulations are not relevant to real-life scenarios. This paper moves beyond questioning whether the HAPC model works, to why it produces the results it does. We argue HAPC estimates are the result not of the distinctive substantive APC processes occurring in the dataset, but are primarily an artefact of the data structure—that is, the way the data has been collected. Were the data collected differently, the results produced would be different. This is illustrated both with simulations and real data, the latter by taking a variety of samples from the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) data used by Reither et al. (Soc Sci Med 69(10):1439–1448, 2009) in their HAPC study of obesity. When a sample based on a small range of cohorts is taken, such that the period range is much greater than the cohort range, the results produced are very different to those produced when cohort groups span a much wider range than periods, as is structurally the case with repeated cross-sectional data. The paper also addresses the latest defence of the HAPC model by its proponents (Reither et al. in Soc Sci Med 145:125–128, 2015a). The results lend further support to the view that the HAPC model is not able to accurately discern APC effects, and should be used with caution when there appear to be period or cohort near-linear trends

Sr-Nd-Pb-Hf isotope results from ODP Leg 187: Evidence for mantle dynamics of the Australian-Antarctic Discordance and origin of the Indian MORB source

New high precision PIMMS Hf and Pb isotope data for 14–28 Ma basalts recovered during ODP Leg 187 are compared with zero-age dredge samples from the Australian-Antarctic Discordance (AAD). These new data show that combined Nd-Hf isotope systematics can be used as an effective discriminant between Indian and Pacific MORB source mantle domains. In particular, Indian mantle is displaced to lower εNd and higher εHf ratios compared to Pacific mantle. As with Pb isotope plots, there is almost no overlap between the two mantle types in Nd-Hf isotope space. On the basis of our new Nd-Hf isotope data, we demonstrate that Pacific MORB-source mantle was present near the eastern margin of the AAD from as early as 28 Ma, its boundary with Indian MORB-source mantle coinciding with the eastern edge of a basin-wide arcuate depth anomaly that is centered on the AAD. This observation rules out models requiring rapid migration of Pacific MORB mantle into the Indian Ocean basin since separation of Australia from Antarctica. Although temporal variations in isotopic composition can be discerned relative to the fracture zone boundary of the modern AAD at 127°E, the distribution of different compositional groups appears to have remained much the same relative to the position of the residual depth anomaly for the past 30 m.y. Thus significant lateral flow of mantle along the ridge axis toward the interface appears unlikely. Instead, the dynamics that maintain both the residual depth anomaly and the isotopic boundary between Indian and Pacific mantle are due to eastward migration of the Australian and Antarctic plates over a stagnated, but slowly upwelling, slab oriented roughly orthogonal to the ridge axis. Temporal and spatial variations in the compositions of Indian MORB basalts within the AAD can be explained by progressive displacement of shallower Indian MORB-source mantle by deeper mantle having a higher εHf composition ascending ahead of the upwelling slab. Models for the origin of the distinctive composition of the Indian MORB-source based on recycling of a heterogeneous enriched component that consist of ancient altered ocean crust plus<10% pelagic sediment are inconsistent with Nd-Hf isotope systematics. Instead, the data can be explained by a model in which Indian mantle includes a significant proportion of material that was processed in the mantle wedge above a subduction zone and was subsequently mixed back into unprocessed upper mantle

Recycled gabbro signature in hotspot magmas unveiled by plume–ridge interactions

Lavas erupted within plate interiors above upwelling mantle plumes have chemical signatures that are distinct from midocean ridge lavas. When a plume interacts with a mid-ocean ridge, the compositions of both their lavas changes, but there is no consensus as to how this interaction occurs1–3. For the past 15 Myr, the Pacific–Antarctic mid-ocean ridge has been approaching the Foundation hotspot4 and erupted lavas have formed seamounts. Here we analyse the noble gas isotope and trace element signature of lava samples collected from the seamounts. We find that both intraplate and on-axis lavas have noble gas isotope signatures consistent with the contribution from a primitive plume source. In contrast, nearaxis lavas show no primitive noble gas isotope signatures, but are enriched in strontium and lead, indicative of subducted former oceanic lower crust melting within the plume source5–7. We propose that, in a near-ridge setting, primitive, plumesourced magmas formed deep in the plume are preferentially channelled to and erupted at the ridge-axis. The remaining residue continues to rise and melt, forming the near-axis seamounts. With the deep melts removed, the geochemical signature of subduction contained within the residue becomes apparent. Lavas with strontium and lead enrichments are found worldwide where plumes meet mid-ocean ridges6–8, suggesting that subducted lower crust is an important but previously unrecognised plume component

Interictal Functional Connectivity of Human Epileptic Networks Assessed by Intracerebral EEG and BOLD Signal Fluctuations

In this study, we aimed to demonstrate whether spontaneous fluctuations in the blood oxygen level dependent (BOLD) signal derived from resting state functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) reflect spontaneous neuronal activity in pathological brain regions as well as in regions spared by epileptiform discharges. This is a crucial issue as coherent fluctuations of fMRI signals between remote brain areas are now widely used to define functional connectivity in physiology and in pathophysiology. We quantified functional connectivity using non-linear measures of cross-correlation between signals obtained from intracerebral EEG (iEEG) and resting-state functional MRI (fMRI) in 5 patients suffering from intractable temporal lobe epilepsy (TLE). Functional connectivity was quantified with both modalities in areas exhibiting different electrophysiological states (epileptic and non affected regions) during the interictal period. Functional connectivity as measured from the iEEG signal was higher in regions affected by electrical epileptiform abnormalities relative to non-affected areas, whereas an opposite pattern was found for functional connectivity measured from the BOLD signal. Significant negative correlations were found between the functional connectivities of iEEG and BOLD signal when considering all pairs of signals (theta, alpha, beta and broadband) and when considering pairs of signals in regions spared by epileptiform discharges (in broadband signal). This suggests differential effects of epileptic phenomena on electrophysiological and hemodynamic signals and/or an alteration of the neurovascular coupling secondary to pathological plasticity in TLE even in regions spared by epileptiform discharges. In addition, indices of directionality calculated from both modalities were consistent showing that the epileptogenic regions exert a significant influence onto the non epileptic areas during the interictal period. This study shows that functional connectivity measured by iEEG and BOLD signals give complementary but sometimes inconsistent information in TLE