Autocalibration and Tweedie-dominance for Insurance Pricing with Machine Learning

Boosting techniques and neural networks are particularly effective machine learning methods for insurance pricing. Often in practice, there are nevertheless endless debates about the choice of the right loss function to be used to train the machine learning model, as well as about the appropriate metric to assess the performances of competing models. Also, the sum of fitted values can depart from the observed totals to a large extent and this often confuses actuarial analysts. The lack of balance inherent to training models by minimizing deviance outside the familiar GLM with canonical link setting has been empirically documented in W\"uthrich (2019, 2020) who attributes it to the early stopping rule in gradient descent methods for model fitting. The present paper aims to further study this phenomenon when learning proceeds by minimizing Tweedie deviance. It is shown that minimizing deviance involves a trade-off between the integral of weighted differences of lower partial moments and the bias measured on a specific scale. Autocalibration is then proposed as a remedy. This new method to correct for bias adds an extra local GLM step to the analysis. Theoretically, it is shown that it implements the autocalibration concept in pure premium calculation and ensures that balance also holds on a local scale, not only at portfolio level as with existing bias-correction techniques. The convex order appears to be the natural tool to compare competing models, putting a new light on the diagnostic graphs and associated metrics proposed by Denuit et al. (2019)

Plasma thioredoxin levels during post-cardiac arrest syndrome: relationship with severity and outcome

International audienceIntroductionDespite experimental evidence, clinical demonstration of acute state of oxidative stress and inflammation during post-cardiac arrest syndrome is lacking. Plasma level of thioredoxin (TRX), a redox-active protein induced under conditions of oxidative stress and inflammation, is increased in various critical care conditions. We determined plasma TRX concentrations after cardiac arrest and assessed relationships with severity and outcome.MethodsRetrospective study of consecutive patients admitted to a single academic intensive care unit (ICU) for out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (between July 2006 and March 2008). Plasma levels of TRX were measured at admission, day (D) 1, 2 and 3.ResultsOf 176 patients included, median TRX values measured in ICU survivors and non-survivors were, respectively: 22 ng/mL (7.8 to 77) vs. 72.4 (21.9 to 117.9) at admission (P TRX levels on admission were significantly correlated with 'low-flow' duration (P = 0.003), sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score (P ConclusionsOur data show for the first time that TRX levels were elevated early following cardiac arrest, suggestive of oxidative stress and inflammation occurring with this condition. Highest values were found in the most severe patients. TRX could be a useful tool for further exploration and comprehension of post-cardiac arrest syndrome

Delayed awakening after cardiac arrest: prevalence and risk factors in the Parisian registry

PURPOSE: Although prolonged unconsciousness after cardiac arrest (CA) is a sign of poor neurological outcome, limited evidence shows that a late recovery may occur in a minority of patients. We investigated the prevalence and the predictive factors of delayed awakening in comatose CA survivors treated with targeted temperature management (TTM). METHODS: Retrospective analysis of the Parisian Region Out-of-Hospital CA Registry (2008-2013). In adult comatose CA survivors treated with TTM, sedated with midazolam and fentanyl, time to awakening was measured starting from discontinuation of sedation at the end of rewarming. Awakening was defined as delayed when it occurred after more than 48 h. RESULTS: A total of 326 patients (71 % male, mean age 59 ± 16 years) were included, among whom 194 awoke. Delayed awakening occurred in 56/194 (29 %) patients, at a median time of 93 h (IQR 70-117) from discontinuation of sedation. In 5/56 (9 %) late awakeners, pupillary reflex and motor response were both absent 48 h after sedation discontinuation. In multivariate analysis, age over 59 years (OR 2.1, 95 % CI 1.0-4.3), post-resuscitation shock (OR 2.6 [1.3-5.2]), and renal insufficiency at admission (OR 3.1 [1.4-6.8]) were associated with significantly higher rates of delayed awakening. CONCLUSIONS: Delayed awakening is common among patients recovering from coma after CA. Renal insufficiency, older age, and post-resuscitation shock were independent predictors of delayed awakening. Presence of unfavorable neurological signs at 48 h after rewarming from TTM and discontinuation of sedation did not rule out recovery of consciousness in late awakeners

Differentiation Therapy: Targeting Human Renal Cancer Stem Cells with Interleukin 15

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human renal cancer cells express a novel membrane bound interleukin 15 that induces in response to the soluble interleukin 15 receptor α chain epithelial to mesenchymal transition

Although interleukin-15 (IL-15) is a powerful immunomodulatory factor that has been proposed for cancer immunotherapy, its intratumoral expression may be correlated with tumor progression and/or poor clinical outcome. Therefore, neoplasias potentially sensitive to immunotherapy should be checked for their IL-15 expression and function before choosing immunotherapy protocols. Primary human renal cancer cells (RCC) express a novel form of membrane-bound IL-15 (mb-IL-15), which displays three major original properties: (a) It is expressed as a functional membrane homodimer of 27 kDa, (b) it is shed in the extracellular environment by the metalloproteases ADAM17 and ADAM10, and (c) its stimulation by soluble IL-15 receptor α (s-IL-15Rα) chain triggers a complex reverse signal (mitogen-activated protein kinases, FAK, pMLC) necessary and sufficient to ~induce epithelial-mesenchymal transdifferentiation (EMT), a crucial process in tumor progression whose induction is unprecedented for IL-15. In these cells, complete EMT is characterized by a dynamic reorganization of the cytoskeleton with the subsequent generation of a mesenchymal/contractile phenotype (α-SMA and vimentin networks) and the loss of the epithelial markers E-cadherin and ZO-1. The retrosignaling functions are, however, hindered through an unprecedented cytokine/receptor interaction of mb-IL-15 with membrane-associated IL-15Rα subunit that tunes its signaling potential competing with low concentrations of the s-IL-15Rα chain. Thus, human RCC express an IL-15/IL-15R system, which displays unique biochemical and functional properties that seem to be directly involved in renal tumoral progression. [Cancer Res 2009;69(4):1561–9

Injection of Pseudomonas aeruginosa Exo Toxins into Host Cells Can Be Modulated by Host Factors at the Level of Translocon Assembly and/or Activity

Pseudomonas aeruginosa type III secretion apparatus exports and translocates four exotoxins into the cytoplasm of the host cell. The translocation requires two hydrophobic bacterial proteins, PopB and PopD, that are found associated with host cell membranes following infection. In this work we examined the influence of host cell elements on exotoxin translocation efficiency. We developed a quantitative flow cytometry based assay of translocation that used protein fusions between either ExoS or ExoY and the ß-lactamase reporter enzyme. In parallel, association of translocon proteins with host plasma membranes was evaluated by immunodetection of PopB/D following sucrose gradient fractionation of membranes. A pro-myelocytic cell line (HL-60) and a pro-monocytic cell line (U937) were found resistant to toxin injection even though PopB/D associated with host cell plasma membranes. Differentiation of these cells to either macrophage- or neutrophil-like cell lines resulted in injection-sensitive phenotype without significantly changing the level of membrane-inserted translocon proteins. As previous in vitro studies have indicated that the lysis of liposomes by PopB and PopD requires both cholesterol and phosphatidyl-serine, we first examined the role of cholesterol in translocation efficiency. Treatment of sensitive HL-60 cells with methyl-ß-cyclodextrine, a cholesterol-depleting agent, resulted in a diminished injection of ExoS-Bla. Moreover, the PopB translocator was found in the membrane fraction, obtained from sucrose-gradient purifications, containing the lipid-raft marker flotillin. Examination of components of signalling pathways influencing the toxin injection was further assayed through a pharmacological approach. A systematic detection of translocon proteins within host membranes showed that, in addition to membrane composition, some general signalling pathways involved in actin polymerization may be critical for the formation of a functional pore. In conclusion, we provide new insights in regulation of translocation process and suggest possible cross-talks between eukaryotic cell and the pathogen at the level of exotoxin translocation

Interleukin-15 Plays a Central Role in Human Kidney Physiology and Cancer through the γc Signaling Pathway

The ability of Interleukin-15 (IL-15) to activate many immune antitumor mechanisms renders the cytokine a good candidate for the therapy of solid tumors, particularly renal cell carcinoma. Although IL-15 is being currently used in clinical trials, the function of the cytokine on kidney's components has not been extensively studied; we thus investigated the role of IL-15 on normal and tumor renal epithelial cells. Herein, we analyzed the expression and the biological functions of IL-15 in normal renal proximal tubuli (RPTEC) and in their neoplastic counterparts, the renal clear cell carcinomas (RCC). This study shows that RPTEC express a functional heterotrimeric IL-15Rαβγc complex whose stimulation with physiologic concentrations of rhIL-15 is sufficient to inhibit epithelial mesenchymal transition (EMT) commitment preserving E-cadherin expression. Indeed, IL-15 is not only a survival factor for epithelial cells, but it can also preserve the renal epithelial phenotype through the γc-signaling pathway, demonstrating that the cytokine possess a wide range of action in epithelial homeostasis. In contrast, in RCC in vitro and in vivo studies reveal a defect in the expression of γc-receptor and JAK3 associated kinase, which strongly impacts IL-15 signaling. Indeed, in the absence of the γc/JAK3 couple we demonstrate the assembly of an unprecedented functional high affinity IL-15Rαβ heterodimer, that in response to physiologic concentrations of IL-15, triggers an unbalanced signal causing the down-regulation of the tumor suppressor gene E-cadherin, favoring RCC EMT process. Remarkably, the rescue of IL-15/γc-dependent signaling (STAT5), by co-transfecting γc and JAK3 in RCC, inhibits EMT reversion. In conclusion, these data highlight the central role of IL-15 and γc-receptor signaling in renal homeostasis through the control of E-cadherin expression and preservation of epithelial phenotype both in RPTEC (up-regulation) and RCC (down-regulation)

Multifocal Ectopic Purkinje-Related Premature Contractions: A New SCN5A-Related Cardiac Channelopathy.: MEPPC: a new SCN5A-related cardiac channelopathy

International audienceOBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to describe a new familial cardiac phenotype and to elucidate the electrophysiological mechanism responsible for the disease. BACKGROUND: Mutations in several genes encoding ion channels, especially SCN5A, have emerged as the basis for a variety of inherited cardiac arrhythmias. METHODS: Three unrelated families comprising 21 individuals affected by multifocal ectopic Purkinje-related premature contractions (MEPPC) characterized by narrow junctional and rare sinus beats competing with numerous premature ventricular contractions with right and/or left bundle branch block patterns were identified. RESULTS: Dilated cardiomyopathy was identified in 6 patients, atrial arrhythmias were detected in 9 patients, and sudden death was reported in 5 individuals. Invasive electrophysiological studies demonstrated that premature ventricular complexes originated from the Purkinje tissue. Hydroquinidine treatment dramatically decreased the number of premature ventricular complexes. It normalized the contractile function in 2 patients. All the affected subjects carried the c.665G>A transition in the SCN5A gene. Patch-clamp studies of resulting p.Arg222Gln (R222Q) Nav1.5 revealed a net gain of function of the sodium channel, leading, in silico, to incomplete repolarization in Purkinje cells responsible for premature ventricular action potentials. In vitro and in silico studies recapitulated the normalization of the ventricular action potentials in the presence of quinidine. CONCLUSIONS: A new SCN5A-related cardiac syndrome, MEPPC, was identified. The SCN5A mutation leads to a gain of function of the sodium channel responsible for hyperexcitability of the fascicular-Purkinje system. The MEPPC syndrome is responsive to hydroquinidine

The calcium-permeable channel OSCA1.3 regulates plant stomatal immunity

Perception of biotic and abiotic stresses often leads to stomatal closure in plants 1,2. Rapid influx of calcium ions (Ca 2+) across the plasma membrane has an important role in this response, but the identity of the Ca 2+ channels involved has remained elusive 3,4. Here we report that the Arabidopsis thaliana Ca 2+-permeable channel OSCA1.3 controls stomatal closure during immune signalling. OSCA1.3 is rapidly phosphorylated upon perception of pathogen-associated molecular patterns (PAMPs). Biochemical and quantitative phosphoproteomics analyses reveal that the immune receptor-associated cytosolic kinase BIK1 interacts with and phosphorylates the N-terminal cytosolic loop of OSCA1.3 within minutes of treatment with the peptidic PAMP flg22, which is derived from bacterial flagellin. Genetic and electrophysiological data reveal that OSCA1.3 is permeable to Ca 2+, and that BIK1-mediated phosphorylation on its N terminus increases this channel activity. Notably, OSCA1.3 and its phosphorylation by BIK1 are critical for stomatal closure during immune signalling, and OSCA1.3 does not regulate stomatal closure upon perception of abscisic acid—a plant hormone associated with abiotic stresses. This study thus identifies a plant Ca 2+ channel and its activation mechanisms underlying stomatal closure during immune signalling, and suggests specificity in Ca 2+ influx mechanisms in response to different stresses

Les droits disciplinaires des fonctions publiques : « unification », « harmonisation » ou « distanciation ». A propos de la loi du 26 avril 2016 relative à la déontologie et aux droits et obligations des fonctionnaires

The production of tt‾ , W+bb‾ and W+cc‾ is studied in the forward region of proton–proton collisions collected at a centre-of-mass energy of 8 TeV by the LHCb experiment, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 1.98±0.02 fb−1 . The W bosons are reconstructed in the decays W→ℓν , where ℓ denotes muon or electron, while the b and c quarks are reconstructed as jets. All measured cross-sections are in agreement with next-to-leading-order Standard Model predictions.The production of $t\overline{t}$, $W+b\overline{b}$ and $W+c\overline{c}$ is studied in the forward region of proton-proton collisions collected at a centre-of-mass energy of 8 TeV by the LHCb experiment, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 1.98 $\pm$ 0.02 \mbox{fb}^{-1}. The $W$ bosons are reconstructed in the decays $W\rightarrow\ell\nu$, where $\ell$ denotes muon or electron, while the $b$ and $c$ quarks are reconstructed as jets. All measured cross-sections are in agreement with next-to-leading-order Standard Model predictions