Supermodeling Improving Predictions with an Ensemble of Interacting Models

The modeling of weather and climate has been a success story. The skill of forecasts continues to improve and model biases continue to decrease. Combining the output of multiple models has further improved forecast skill and reduced biases. But are we exploiting the full capacity of state-of-the-art models in making forecasts and projections? Supermodeling is a recent step forward in the multimodel ensemble approach. Instead of combining model output after the simulations are completed, in a supermodel individual models exchange state information as they run, influencing each other's behavior. By learning the optimal parameters that determine how models influence each other based on past observations, model errors are reduced at an early stage before they propagate into larger scales and affect other regions and variables. The models synchronize on a common solution that through learning remains closer to the observed evolution. Effectively a new dynamical system has been created, a supermodel, that optimally combines the strengths of the constituent models. The supermodel approach has the potential to rapidly improve current state-of-the-art weather forecasts and climate predictions. In this paper we introduce supermodeling, demonstrate its potential in examples of various complexity, and discuss learning strategies. We conclude with a discussion of remaining challenges for a successful application of supermodeling in the context of state-of-the-art models. The supermodeling approach is not limited to the modeling of weather and climate, but can be applied to improve the prediction capabilities of any complex system, for which a set of different models exists

Inhalation characteristics of asthma patients, COPD patients and healthy volunteers with the Spiromax® and Turbuhaler® devices: a randomised, cross-over study.

BACKGROUND: Spiromax® is a novel dry-powder inhaler containing formulations of budesonide plus formoterol (BF). The device is intended to provide dose equivalence with enhanced user-friendliness compared to BF Turbuhaler® in asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). The present study was performed to compare inhalation parameters with empty versions of the two devices, and to investigate the effects of enhanced training designed to encourage faster inhalation. METHODS: This randomised, open-label, cross-over study included children with asthma (n = 23), adolescents with asthma (n = 27), adults with asthma (n = 50), adults with COPD (n = 50) and healthy adult volunteers (n = 50). Inhalation manoeuvres were recorded with each device after training with the patient information leaflet (PIL) and after enhanced training using an In-Check Dial device. RESULTS: After PIL training, peak inspiratory flow (PIF), maximum change in pressure (∆P) and the inhalation volume (IV) were significantly higher with Spiromax than with the Turbuhaler device (p values were at least <0.05 in all patient groups). After enhanced training, numerically or significantly higher values for PIF, ∆P, IV and acceleration remained with Spiromax versus Turbuhaler, except for ∆P in COPD patients. After PIL training, one adult asthma patient and one COPD patient inhaled <30 L/min through the Spiromax compared to one adult asthma patient and five COPD patients with the Turbuhaler. All patients achieved PIF values of at least 30 L/min after enhanced training. CONCLUSIONS: The two inhalers have similar resistance so inhalation flows and pressure changes would be expected to be similar. The higher flow-related values noted for Spiromax versus Turbuhaler after PIL training suggest that Spiromax might have human factor advantages in real-world use. After enhanced training, the flow-related differences between devices persisted; increased flow rates were achieved with both devices, and all patients achieved the minimal flow required for adequate drug delivery. Enhanced training could be useful, especially in COPD patients

The development of an unsupervised hierarchical clustering analysis of dual-polarization weather surveillance radar observations to assess nocturnal insect abundance and diversity

This is the final version. Available on open access from Wiley via the DOI in this recordContemporary analyses of insect population trends are based, for the most part, on a large body of heterogeneous and short-term datasets of diurnal species that are representative of limited spatial domains. This makes monitoring changes in insect biomass and biodiversity difficult. What is needed is a method for monitoring that provides a consistent, high-resolution picture of insect populations through time over large areas during day and night. Here, we explore the use of X-band weather surveillance radar (WSR) for the study of local insect populations using a high-quality, multi-week time series of nocturnal moth light trapping data. Specifically, we test the hypotheses that (i) unsupervised data-driven classification algorithms can differentiate meteorological and biological phenomena, (ii) the diversity of the classes of bioscatterers are quantitatively related to the diversity of insects as measured on the ground and (iii) insect abundance measured at ground level can be predicted quantitatively based on dual-polarization Doppler WSR variables. Adapting the quasi-vertical profile analysis method and data clustering techniques developed for the analysis of hydrometeors, we demonstrate that our bioscatterer classification algorithm successfully differentiates bioscatterers from hydrometeors over a large spatial scale and at high temporal resolutions. Furthermore, our results also show a clear relationship between biological and meteorological scatterers and a link between the abundance and diversity of radar-based bioscatterer clusters and that of nocturnal aerial insects. Thus, we demonstrate the potential utility of this approach for landscape scale monitoring of biodiversity.Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)Bill and Melinda Gates Foundatio

An efficient record linkage scheme using graphical analysis for identifier error detection

Integration of information on individuals (record linkage) is a key problem in healthcare delivery, epidemiology, and "business intelligence" applications. It is now common to be required to link very large numbers of records, often containing various combinations of theoretically unique identifiers, such as NHS numbers, which are both incomplete and error-prone

Radiographers supporting radiologists in the interpretation of screening mammography: a viable strategy to meet the shortage in the number of radiologists.

BackgroundAn alternative approach to the traditional model of radiologists interpreting screening mammography is necessary due to the shortage of radiologists to interpret screening mammograms in many countries.MethodsWe evaluated the performance of 15 Mexican radiographers, also known as radiologic technologists, in the interpretation of screening mammography after a 6 months training period in a screening setting. Fifteen radiographers received 6 months standardized training with radiologists in the interpretation of screening mammography using the Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System (BI-RADS) system. A challenging test set of 110 cases developed by the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium was used to evaluate their performance. We estimated sensitivity, specificity, false positive rates, likelihood ratio of a positive test (LR+) and the area under the subject-specific Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) for diagnostic accuracy. A mathematical model simulating the consequences in costs and performance of two hypothetical scenarios compared to the status quo in which a radiologist reads all screening mammograms was also performed.ResultsRadiographer's sensitivity was comparable to the sensitivity scores achieved by U.S. radiologists who took the test but their false-positive rate was higher. Median sensitivity was 73.3 % (Interquartile range, IQR: 46.7-86.7 %) and the median false positive rate was 49.5 % (IQR: 34.7-57.9 %). The median LR+ was 1.4 (IQR: 1.3-1.7 %) and the median AUC was 0.6 (IQR: 0.6-0.7). A scenario in which a radiographer reads all mammograms first, and a radiologist reads only those that were difficult for the radiographer, was more cost-effective than a scenario in which either the radiographer or radiologist reads all mammograms.ConclusionsGiven the comparable sensitivity achieved by Mexican radiographers and U.S. radiologists on a test set, screening mammography interpretation by radiographers appears to be a possible adjunct to radiologists in countries with shortages of radiologists. Further studies are required to assess the effectiveness of different training programs in order to obtain acceptable screening accuracy, as well as the best approaches for the use of non-physician readers to interpret screening mammography

Transcript levels of ten caste-related genes in adult diploid males of Melipona quadrifasciata (Hymenoptera, Apidae) - A comparison with haploid males, queens and workers

In Hymenoptera, homozygosity at the sex locus results in the production of diploid males. In social species, these pose a double burden by having low fitness and drawing resources normally spent for increasing the work force of a colony. Yet, diploid males are of academic interest as they can elucidate effects of ploidy (normal males are haploid, whereas the female castes, the queens and workers, are diploid) on morphology and life history. Herein we investigated expression levels of ten caste-related genes in the stingless bee Melipona quadrifasciata, comparing newly emerged and 5-day-old diploid males with haploid males, queens and workers. In diploid males, transcript levels for dunce and paramyosin were increased during the first five days of adult life, while those for diacylglycerol kinase and the transcriptional co-repressor groucho diminished. Two general trends were apparent, (i) gene expression patterns in diploid males were overall more similar to haploid ones and workers than to queens, and (ii) in queens and workers, more genes were up-regulated after emergence until day five, whereas in diploid and especially so in haploid males more genes were down-regulated. This difference between the sexes may be related to longevity, which is much longer in females than in males

The stellar halo of the Galaxy

Stellar halos may hold some of the best preserved fossils of the formation history of galaxies. They are a natural product of the merging processes that probably take place during the assembly of a galaxy, and hence may well be the most ubiquitous component of galaxies, independently of their Hubble type. This review focuses on our current understanding of the spatial structure, the kinematics and chemistry of halo stars in the Milky Way. In recent years, we have experienced a change in paradigm thanks to the discovery of large amounts of substructure, especially in the outer halo. I discuss the implications of the currently available observational constraints and fold them into several possible formation scenarios. Unraveling the formation of the Galactic halo will be possible in the near future through a combination of large wide field photometric and spectroscopic surveys, and especially in the era of Gaia.Comment: 46 pages, 16 figures. References updated and some minor changes. Full-resolution version available at http://www.astro.rug.nl/~ahelmi/stellar-halo-review.pd

Development of the rhopalial nervous system in Aurelia sp.1 (Cnidaria, Scyphozoa)

We examined the development of the nervous system in the rhopalium, a medusa-specific sensory structure, in Aurelia sp.1 (Cnidaria, Scyphozoa) using confocal microscopy. The rhopalial nervous system appears primarily ectodermal and contains neurons immunoreactive to antibodies against tyrosinated tubulin, taurine, GLWamide, and FMRFamide. The rhopalial nervous system develops in an ordered manner: the presumptive gravity-sensing organ, consisting of the lithocyst and the touch plate, differentiates first; the “marginal center,” which controls swimming activity, second; and finally, the ocelli, the presumptive photoreceptors. At least seven bilaterally arranged neuronal clusters consisting of sensory and ganglion cells and their neuronal processes became evident in the rhopalium during metamorphosis to the medusa stage. Our analysis provides an anatomical framework for future gene expression and experimental studies of development and functions of scyphozoan rhopalia

Detection of macrolide and disinfectant resistance genes in clinical Staphylococcus aureus and coagulase-negative staphylococci

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p><it>Staphylococcus aureus </it>and Coagulase-negative staphylococci (CoNS) are a major source of infections associated with indwelling medical devices. Many antiseptic agents are used in hygienic handwash to prevent nosocomial infections by Staphylococci. Our aim was to determine the antibiotic susceptibility and resistance to quaternary ammonium compound of 46 <it>S. aureus </it>strains and 71 CoNS.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p><it>S. aureus </it>(n = 46) isolated from auricular infection and CoNS (n = 71), 22 of the strains isolated from dialysis fluids and 49 of the strains isolated from needles cultures were investigated. Erythromycin resistance genes (<it>erm</it>A, <it>erm</it>B, <it>erm</it>C, <it>msr</it>A and <it>mef</it>) were analysed by multiplex PCR and disinfectant-resistant genes (<it>qac</it>A, <it>qac</it>B, and <it>qac</it>C) were studied by PCR-RFLP.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The frequency of erythromycin resistance genes in <it>S. aureus </it>was: <it>erm</it>A+ 7.7%, <it>erm</it>B+ 13.7%, <it>erm</it>C+ 6% and <it>msr</it>A+ 10.2%. In addition, the number of positive isolates in CoNS was respectively <it>erm</it>A+ (9.4%), <it>erm</it>B+ (11.1%), <it>erm</it>C+ (27.4%), and <it>msr</it>A+ (41%). The MIC analyses revealed that 88 isolates (74%) were resistant to quaternary ammonium compound-based disinfectant benzalkonium chloride (BC). 56% of the BC-resistant staphylococcus isolates have at least one of the three resistant disinfectants genes (<it>qac</it>A, <it>qac</it>B and <it>qac</it>C). Nine strains (7.7%) among the CoNS species and two <it>S. aureus </it>strains (2%) harboured the three-<it>qac </it>genes. In addition, the <it>qac</it>C were detected in 41 strains.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Multi-resistant strains towards macrolide and disinfectant were recorded. The investigation of antibiotics and antiseptic-resistant CoNS may provide crucial information on the control of nosocomial infections.</p