Understanding Terrorist Organizations with a Dynamic Model

Terrorist organizations change over time because of processes such as recruitment and training as well as counter-terrorism (CT) measures, but the effects of these processes are typically studied qualitatively and in separation from each other. Seeking a more quantitative and integrated understanding, we constructed a simple dynamic model where equations describe how these processes change an organization's membership. Analysis of the model yields a number of intuitive as well as novel findings. Most importantly it becomes possible to predict whether counter-terrorism measures would be sufficient to defeat the organization. Furthermore, we can prove in general that an organization would collapse if its strength and its pool of foot soldiers decline simultaneously. In contrast, a simultaneous decline in its strength and its pool of leaders is often insufficient and short-termed. These results and other like them demonstrate the great potential of dynamic models for informing terrorism scholarship and counter-terrorism policy making.Comment: To appear as Springer Lecture Notes in Computer Science v2: vectorized 4 figures, fixed two typos, more detailed bibliograph

Observational measure of implementation progress in community based settings: The Stages of implementation completion (SIC)

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>An increasingly large body of research is focused on designing and testing strategies to improve knowledge about how to embed evidence-based programs (EBP) into community settings. Development of strategies for overcoming barriers and increasing the effectiveness and pace of implementation is a high priority. Yet, there are few research tools that measure the implementation process itself. The Stages of Implementation Completion (SIC) is an observation-based measure that is used to track the time to achievement of key implementation milestones in an EBP being implemented in 51 counties in 53 sites (two counties have two sites) in two states in the United States.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The SIC was developed in the context of a randomized trial comparing the effectiveness of two implementation strategies: community development teams (experimental condition) and individualized implementation (control condition). Fifty-one counties were randomized to experimental or control conditions for implementation of multidimensional treatment foster care (MTFC), an alternative to group/residential care placement for children and adolescents. Progress through eight implementation stages was tracked by noting dates of completion of specific activities in each stage. Activities were tailored to the strategies for implementing the specific EBP.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Preliminary data showed that several counties ceased progress during pre-implementation and that there was a high degree of variability among sites in the duration scores per stage and on the proportion of activities that were completed in each stage. Progress through activities and stages for three example counties is shown.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>By assessing the attainment time of each stage and the proportion of activities completed, the SIC measure can be used to track and compare the effectiveness of various implementation strategies. Data from the SIC will provide sites with relevant information on the time and resources needed to implement MTFC during various phases of implementation. With some modifications, the SIC could be appropriate for use in evaluating implementation strategies in head-to-head randomized implementation trials and as a monitoring tool for rolling out other EBPs.</p

DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY SOIL AND GROUNDWATER SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY NEEDS, PLANS AND INITIATIVES

This paper presents the process used by the Department of Energy (DOE) Environmental Management (EM) Program to collect and prioritize DOE soil and groundwater site science and technology needs, develop and document strategic plans within the EM Engineering and Technology Roadmap, and establish specific program and project initiatives for inclusion in the EM Multi-Year Program Plan. The paper also presents brief summaries of the goals and objectives for the established soil and groundwater initiatives

Morphological traits can track coral reef responses to the Anthropocene

MD was supported by the John Templeton Foundation (60501) and JM was supported by the Australian Research Council (FT110100609) during the period this research was undertaken.1. Susceptibility to human-driven environmental changes is mediated by species traits. Therefore, identifying traits that predict organism performance, ecosystem function and response to changes in environmental conditions can help forecast how ecosystems are responding to the Anthropocene. 2. Morphology dictates how organisms interact with their environment and other organisms, partially determining the environmental and biological contexts in which they are successful. Morphology is important for autogenic ecosystem engineering organisms, such as reef-building corals, because it determines the shape of the structures they create and by extension the communities they support. 3. Here, we present six morphological traits that capture variation in volume compactness, surface complexity and top-heaviness. With support from the literature, we propose causal links between morphology and a performance–function–response framework. 4. To illustrate these concepts, we combine 3D scanning and coral survey data to predict morphological traits from in situ colonies. We present a case study that examines how assemblage-scale morphological traits have responded to two cyclones and the 2016 mass bleaching event—two phenomena predicted to increase in severity in the Anthropocene—and discuss how these changes may impact ecosystem function. 5. The morphological traits outlined here offer a generalised and hypothesis-driven approach to tracking how reefs respond to the Anthropocene. The ability to predict these traits from field data and the increasing use of photogrammetry makes them readily applicable across broad spatiotemporal scales.PostprintPeer reviewe

Multi-phonon Raman scattering in semiconductor nanocrystals: importance of non-adiabatic transitions

Multi-phonon Raman scattering in semiconductor nanocrystals is treated taking into account both adiabatic and non-adiabatic phonon-assisted optical transitions. Because phonons of various symmetries are involved in scattering processes, there is a considerable enhancement of intensities of multi-phonon peaks in nanocrystal Raman spectra. Cases of strong and weak band mixing are considered in detail. In the first case, fundamental scattering takes place via internal electron-hole states and is participated by s- and d-phonons, while in the second case, when the intensity of the one-phonon Raman peak is strongly influenced by the interaction of an electron and of a hole with interface imperfections (e. g., with trapped charge), p-phonons are most active. Calculations of Raman scattering spectra for CdSe and PbS nanocrystals give a good quantitative agreement with recent experimental results.Comment: 16 pages, 2 figures, E-mail addresses: [email protected], [email protected], [email protected], accepted for publication in Physical Review

A Tentative Modeling Study of the Effect of Wall Reactions on Oxidation Phenomena

This paper gives details of a tentative modeling study that investigates the inhibiting effect of internal reactor walls treated with acid..

Subthreshold antiproton production in proton-carbon reactions

Data from KEK on subthreshold antiproton as well as on pi(+-) and K(+-) production in proton-nucleus reactions are described at projectile energies between 3.5 and 12.0 GeV. We use a model which considers a hadron-nucleus reaction as an incoherent sum over collisions of the projectile with a varying number of target nucleons. It samples complete events and allows thus for the simultaneous consideration of all particle species measured. The overall reproduction of the data is quite satisfactory. It is shown that the contributions from the interaction of the projectile with groups of several target nucleons are decisive for the description of subthreshold production. Since the collective features of subthreshold production become especially significant far below the threshold, the results are extrapolated down to COSY energies. It is concluded that an antiproton measurement at ANKE-COSY should be feasible, if the high background of other particles can be efficiently suppressed.Comment: 15 pages, 5 figures, gzipped tar file, submitted to J. Phys. G v2: Modification of text due to demands of referee

Engineering molecular chains in carbon nanotubes

A range of mono- and bis-functionalised fullerenes have been synthesised and inserted into single-walled carbon nanotubes. The effect of the size and shape of the functional groups of the fullerenes on the resultant 1D arrays formed within the nanotubes was investigated by high resolution transmission electron microscopy and X-ray diffraction. The addition of non-planar, sterically bulky chains to the fullerene cage results in highly ordered 1D structures in which the fullerenes are evenly spaced along the internal nanotube cavity. Theoretical calculations reveal that the functional groups interact with neighbouring fullerene cages to space the fullerenes evenly within the confines of the nanotube. The addition of two functional groups to opposite sides of the fullerene cages results in a further increase in the separation of the fullerene cages within the nanotubes at the cost of lower nanotube filling rates.This work was financially supported by FWF project I83-N20 (ESF IMPrESS), the Royal Society, the European Research Council (ERC), "Fundacao para a Ciencia ea Tecnologia" through the program Ciencia 2008, the project SeARCH (Services and Advanced Research Computing with HTC/HPC clusters) and Nottingham Nanoscience and Nanotechnology Centre (NNNC)

Callers’ attitudes and experiences of UK breastfeeding helpline support

Background: Breastfeeding peer support, is considered to be a key intervention for increasing breastfeeding duration rates. Whilst a number of national organisations provide telephone based breastfeeding peer support, to date there have been no published evaluations into callers’ experiences and attitudes of this support. In this study we report on the descriptive and qualitative insights provided by 908 callers as part of an evaluation of UK-based breastfeeding helpline(s). Methods: A structured telephone interview, incorporating Likert scale responses and open-ended questions was undertaken with 908 callers over May to August, 2011 to explore callers’ experiences of the help and support received via the breastfeeding helpline(s). Results: Overall satisfaction with the helpline was high, with the vast majority of callers’ recalling positive experiences of the help and support received. Thematic analysis was undertaken on all qualitative and descriptive data recorded during the evaluation, contextualised within the main areas addressed within the interview schedule in terms of ‘contact with the helplines’; ‘experiences of the helpline service’, ‘perceived effectiveness of support provision’ and ‘impact on caller wellbeing’. Conclusion: Callers valued the opportunity for accessible, targeted, non-judgmental and convenient support. Whilst the telephone support did not necessarily influence women’s breastfeeding decisions, the support they received left them feeling reassured, confident and more determined to continue breastfeeding. We recommend extending the helpline service to ensure support can be accessed when needed, and ongoing training and support for volunteers. Further advertising and promotion of the service within wider demographic groups is warranted

Near-Infrared Mapping and Physical Properties of the Dwarf-Planet Ceres

We study the physical characteristics (shape, dimensions, spin axis direction, albedo maps, mineralogy) of the dwarf-planet Ceres based on high-angular resolution near-infrared observations. We analyze adaptive optics J/H/K imaging observations of Ceres performed at Keck II Observatory in September 2002 with an equivalent spatial resolution of ~50 km. The spectral behavior of the main geological features present on Ceres is compared with laboratory samples. Ceres' shape can be described by an oblate spheroid (a = b = 479.7 +/- 2.3 km, c = 444.4 +/- 2.1 km) with EQJ2000.0 spin vector coordinates RA = 288 +/- 5 deg. and DEC = +66 +/- 5 deg. Ceres sidereal period is measured to be 9.0741 +/- 0.0001 h. We image surface features with diameters in the 50-180 km range and an albedo contrast of ~6% with respect to the average Ceres albedo. The spectral behavior of the brightest regions on Ceres is consistent with phyllosilicates and carbonate compounds. Darker isolated regions could be related to the presence of frost.Comment: 11 pages, 8 Postscript figures, Accepted for publication in A&