Capturing the time-varying drivers of an epidemic using stochastic dynamical systems

Epidemics are often modelled using non-linear dynamical systems observed through partial and noisy data. In this paper, we consider stochastic extensions in order to capture unknown influences (changing behaviors, public interventions, seasonal effects etc). These models assign diffusion processes to the time-varying parameters, and our inferential procedure is based on a suitably adjusted adaptive particle MCMC algorithm. The performance of the proposed computational methods is validated on simulated data and the adopted model is applied to the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in England. In addition to estimating the effective contact rate trajectories, the methodology is applied in real time to provide evidence in related public health decisions. Diffusion driven SEIR-type models with age structure are also introduced.Comment: 21 pages, 5 figure

Modeling of Spiking-Bursting Neural Behavior Using Two-Dimensional Map

A simple model that replicates the dynamics of spiking and spiking-bursting activity of real biological neurons is proposed. The model is a two-dimensional map which contains one fast and one slow variable. The mechanisms behind generation of spikes, bursts of spikes, and restructuring of the map behavior are explained using phase portrait analysis. The dynamics of two coupled maps which model the behavior of two electrically coupled neurons is discussed. Synchronization regimes for spiking and bursting activity of these maps are studied as a function of coupling strength. It is demonstrated that the results of this model are in agreement with the synchronization of chaotic spiking-bursting behavior experimentally found in real biological neurons.Comment: 9 pages, 12 figure

Economic factors influencing zoonotic disease dynamics: demand for poultry meat and seasonal transmission of avian influenza in Vietnam

While climate is often presented as a key factor influencing the seasonality of diseases, the importance of anthropogenic factors is less commonly evaluated. Using a combination of methods-wavelet analysis, economic analysis, statistical and disease transmission modelling-we aimed to explore the influence of climatic and economic factors on the seasonality of H5N1 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in the domestic poultry population of Vietnam. We found that while climatic variables are associated with seasonal variation in the incidence of avian influenza outbreaks in the North of the country, this is not the case in the Centre and the South. In contrast, temporal patterns of H5N1 incidence are similar across these 3 regions: periods of high H5N1 incidence coincide with Lunar New Year festival, occurring in January-February, in the 3 climatic regions for 5 out of the 8 study years. Yet, daily poultry meat consumption drastically increases during Lunar New Year festival throughout the country. To meet this rise in demand, poultry production and trade are expected to peak around the festival period, promoting viral spread, which we demonstrated using a stochastic disease transmission model. This study illustrates the way in which economic factors may influence the dynamics of livestock pathogens

Dengue Dynamics in Binh Thuan Province, Southern Vietnam: Periodicity, Synchronicity and Climate Variability

Dengue has become a major international public health problem due to increasing geographic distribution and a transition from epidemic transmission with long inter-epidemic intervals to endemic transmission with seasonal fluctuation. Seasonal and multi-annual cycles in dengue incidence vary over time and space. We performed wavelet analyses on time series of monthly notified dengue cases in Binh Thuan province, southern Vietnam, from January 1994 to June 2009. We observed a continuous annual mode of oscillation with a non-stationary 2–3-year multi-annual cycle. We used phase differences to describe the spatio-temporal patterns which suggest that the seasonal wave of infection was either synchronous with all districts or moving away from Phan Thiet district, while the multi-annual wave of infection was moving towards Phan Thiet district. We also found a strong non-stationary association between ENSO indices and climate variables with dengue incidence. We provided insight in dengue population transmission dynamics over the past 14.5 years. Further studies on an extensive time series dataset are needed to test the hypothesis that epidemics emanate from larger cities in southern Vietnam

Rhythmic dynamics and synchronization via dimensionality reduction : application to human gait

Reliable characterization of locomotor dynamics of human walking is vital to understanding the neuromuscular control of human locomotion and disease diagnosis. However, the inherent oscillation and ubiquity of noise in such non-strictly periodic signals pose great challenges to current methodologies. To this end, we exploit the state-of-the-art technology in pattern recognition and, specifically, dimensionality reduction techniques, and propose to reconstruct and characterize the dynamics accurately on the cycle scale of the signal. This is achieved by deriving a low-dimensional representation of the cycles through global optimization, which effectively preserves the topology of the cycles that are embedded in a high-dimensional Euclidian space. Our approach demonstrates a clear advantage in capturing the intrinsic dynamics and probing the subtle synchronization patterns from uni/bivariate oscillatory signals over traditional methods. Application to human gait data for healthy subjects and diabetics reveals a significant difference in the dynamics of ankle movements and ankle-knee coordination, but not in knee movements. These results indicate that the impaired sensory feedback from the feet due to diabetes does not influence the knee movement in general, and that normal human walking is not critically dependent on the feedback from the peripheral nervous system

Complex temporal climate signals drive the emergence of human water-borne disease

Predominantly occurring in developing parts of the world, Buruli ulcer is a severely disabling mycobacterium infection which often leads to extensive necrosis of the skin. While the exact route of transmission remains uncertain, like many tropical diseases, associations with climate have been previously observed and could help identify the causative agent's ecological niche. In this paper, links between changes in rainfall and outbreaks of Buruli ulcer in French Guiana, an ultraperipheral European territory in the northeast of South America, were identified using a combination of statistical tests based on singular spectrum analysis, empirical mode decomposition and cross-wavelet coherence analysis. From this, it was possible to postulate for the first time that outbreaks of Buruli ulcer can be triggered by combinations of rainfall patterns occurring on a long (i.e., several years) and short (i.e., seasonal) temporal scale, in addition to stochastic events driven by the El Nino-Southern Oscillation that may disrupt or interact with these patterns. Long-term forecasting of rainfall trends further suggests the possibility of an upcoming outbreak of Buruli ulcer in French Guiana

Self-organization in the olfactory system: one shot odor recognition in insects

We show in a model of spiking neurons that synaptic plasticity in the mushroom bodies in combination with the general fan-in, fan-out properties of the early processing layers of the olfactory system might be sufficient to account for its efficient recognition of odors. For a large variety of initial conditions the model system consistently finds a working solution without any fine-tuning, and is, therefore, inherently robust. We demonstrate that gain control through the known feedforward inhibition of lateral horn interneurons increases the capacity of the system but is not essential for its general function. We also predict an upper limit for the number of odor classes Drosophila can discriminate based on the number and connectivity of its olfactory neurons

WAVOS: a MATLAB toolkit for wavelet analysis and visualization of oscillatory systems

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Wavelets have proven to be a powerful technique for the analysis of periodic data, such as those that arise in the analysis of circadian oscillators. While many implementations of both continuous and discrete wavelet transforms are available, we are aware of no software that has been designed with the nontechnical end-user in mind. By developing a toolkit that makes these analyses accessible to end users without significant programming experience, we hope to promote the more widespread use of wavelet analysis.</p> <p>Findings</p> <p>We have developed the WAVOS toolkit for wavelet analysis and visualization of oscillatory systems. WAVOS features both the continuous (Morlet) and discrete (Daubechies) wavelet transforms, with a simple, user-friendly graphical user interface within MATLAB. The interface allows for data to be imported from a number of standard file formats, visualized, processed and analyzed, and exported without use of the command line. Our work has been motivated by the challenges of circadian data, thus default settings appropriate to the analysis of such data have been pre-selected in order to minimize the need for fine-tuning. The toolkit is flexible enough to deal with a wide range of oscillatory signals, however, and may be used in more general contexts.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>We have presented WAVOS: a comprehensive wavelet-based MATLAB toolkit that allows for easy visualization, exploration, and analysis of oscillatory data. WAVOS includes both the Morlet continuous wavelet transform and the Daubechies discrete wavelet transform. We have illustrated the use of WAVOS, and demonstrated its utility for the analysis of circadian data on both bioluminesence and wheel-running data. WAVOS is freely available at <url>http://sourceforge.net/projects/wavos/files/</url></p

Long-term species, sexual and individual variations in foraging strategies of fur seals revealed by stable isotopes in whiskers

Background: Individual variations in the use of the species niche are an important component of diversity in trophic interactions. A challenge in testing consistency of individual foraging strategy is the repeated collection of information on the same individuals. Methodology/Principal Findings: The foraging strategies of sympatric fur seals (Arctocephalus gazella and A. tropicalis) were examined using the stable isotope signature of serially sampled whiskers. Most whiskers exhibited synchronous delta C-13 and delta N-15 oscillations that correspond to the seal annual movements over the long term (up to 8 years). delta C-13 and delta N-15 values were spread over large ranges, with differences between species, sexes and individuals. The main segregating mechanism operates at the spatial scale. Most seals favored foraging in subantarctic waters (where the Crozet Islands are located) where they fed on myctophids. However, A. gazella dispersed in the Antarctic Zone and A. tropicalis more in the subtropics. Gender differences in annual time budget shape the seal movements. Males that do not perform any parental care exhibited large isotopic oscillations reflecting broad annual migrations, while isotopic values of females confined to a limited foraging range during lactation exhibited smaller changes. Limited inter-individual isotopic variations occurred in female seals and in male A. tropicalis. In contrast, male A. gazella showed large inter-individual variations, with some males migrating repeatedly to high-Antarctic waters where they fed on krill, thus meaning that individual specialization occurred over years. Conclusions/Significance: Whisker isotopic signature yields unique long-term information on individual behaviour that integrates the spatial, trophic and temporal dimensions of the ecological niche. The method allows depicting the entire realized niche of the species, including some of its less well-known components such as age-, sex-, individual- and migration-related changes. It highlights intrapopulation heterogeneity in foraging strategies that could have important implications for likely demographic responses to environmental variability

Pathogens trigger top-down climate forcing on ecosystem dynamics

Evaluating the effects of climate variation on ecosystems is of paramount importance for our ability to forecast and mitigate the consequences of global change. However, the ways in which complex food webs respond to climate variations remain poorly understood. Here, we use long-term time series to investigate the effects of temperature variation on the intraguild-predation (IGP) system of Windermere (UK), a lake where pike (Esox lucius, top predator) feed on small-sized perch (Perca fluviatilis) but compete with large-sized perch for the same food sources. Spectral analyses of time series reveal that pike recruitment dynamics are temperature controlled. In 1976, expansion of a size-truncating perch pathogen into the lake severely impacted large perch and favoured pike as the IGP-dominant species. This pathogen-induced regime shift to a pike-dominated IGP apparently triggered a temperature-controlled trophic cascade passing through pike down to dissolved nutrients. In simple food chains, warming is predicted to strengthen top–down control by accelerating metabolic rates in ectothermic consumers, while pathogens of top consumers are predicted to dampen this top–down control. In contrast, the local IGP structure in Windermere made warming and pathogens synergistic in their top–down effects on ecosystem functioning. More generally, our results point to top predators as major mediators of community response to global change, and show that size-selective agents (e.g. pathogens, fishers or hunters) may change the topological architecture of food webs and alter whole ecosystem sensitivity to climate variation